To tackle climate change a low carbon transition will have to happen. It wasn't that long ago that people thought that such a transition would happen on it's own, brought about by rapidly rising prices as fossil fuels are depleted. 

The bad news for that line of argument is that new fossil fuel deposits are being discovered everywhere. 

Despite suggestions that such a low carbon transition can be accomplished in just a decade or two, more and more questions are being raised about that assumption. The implications for business risk assessment and management are large. Putting all ones’ eggs in a “rapid transition” basket, for example, might turn out to be a bad idea if the transition lasts for decades. 

Even if the world is on a path to a low-carbon future, there are big questions regarding whether it will happen fast enough to avoid dangerous or even catastrophic climate change. Such transitions have generally taken quite a while to occur. 

Relevant questions include: 

• How quickly could a low carbon transition happen?

• How quickly is it likely to happen?

• Will it be 100% renewable energy based?

• What geo-political problems may be associated with a low carbon transition?

• How big a part will nuclear energy play?

• How big a part will hydrogen play?

• Can the transition happen on its own without such interventions as a robust carbon price?

The good news for the idea of a low carbon transition is that the costs of alternative energy sources have fallen dramatically. Solar energy is now competitive with fossil fuels in some circumstances, although there is still a need for cost-effective energy storage options to make wind and solar truly able to displace natural gas and coal.

Today the world is on a path to a low-carbon future, but there are big questions regarding whether it will happen fast enough to avoid potentially catastrophic climate change. Such transitions have generally taken quite a while to occur, as reinforced by E.O. Wilson in the quote below.