Headings - Extracted Materials
E - Forecasted Climate Impacts
Extracted Graphics | Extracted Ideas
2010 Gardner_Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless and You Can do Better
E - Worst Case Climate Change
Probable Futures Dynamic Warming Maps
1919 US oil fields will reach maximum production within the next 2 to 5 years
1947 Sufficient oil cannot be found in the United States according to the State Department
1970 The US will remain self-sufficient, and oil prices will remain low
1978 According to the IEA, there is risk of a serious energy crisis in the middle to late 80's
0oC - 5oC biological systems vulnerability
0oC to 6oC - Probability of sleeping problems and different global temperature thresholds
0oC-6oC - Probability of individuals encountering problems with playing sports at different global temperatures
1900-2100 (2008) Change in daily heavy precipitation events, with uncertainty
1900-2100 (2008) Increase in % of warm nights for North America, with uncertainty
1900-2100 (2010) Changes in permafrost coverage to 2100
1900-2100 (2012) Estimated ocean acidification under alternative emissions scenarios
1980-2040 (2009) Decreasing habitat for coldwater fish
1980-2100 (2014) North Hemisphere near-surface permafrost area to 2100
1980-2100 (2014) Northern Hemisphere snow cover change to 2100
1980-2100 (2014) Number of days over 95o (F) RCP 8.5 Median and 1 in 20 chance
1980-2100 (2015) Change in after number of days over 95 degrees (F) Median and 1 in 20 chance estimates
2000-2050 (2012) Annual probability of loss due to hurricanes for Miami-Dade Region
2009 Climate in peril, Africa impacts
2009 Climate in peril, Asia impacts
2009 Climate in peril, Australia and New Zealand
2009 Climate in peril, Europe
2009 Climate in peril, Latin America
2009 Climate in peril, North America
2009 Long term precipitation change vs. observed droughts
2009 Potential climate change feedback loops
2010 1% Exceedance - High value water availability
2010 1% Exceedance - Water for Mining
2010 10% Exceedance - High value water availability
2010 10% Exceedance - Water for mining
2010 50% exceedance - High value water availability
2010 50% Exceedance - Water for Mining
2010 Annualized U.S. loss trend - water impacts
2010 National employment impacts
2011 Acidification implications vary widely by species
2011 Anticipated changes in stream-flow in 2050
2011 Projected changes in hydropower generation to 2050
2011 U.S. Temperature change
2012 Models clearly project changes in heat extreme return periods (see NA detail)
2012 Models clearly project precipitation extreme impact return periods over time (see NA detail)
2013 A simplistic look at a climate change cost-benefit analysis, suggesting an optimum of 2.3 degrees.
2014/3 Heavy downpours more intense, frequent in a warmer world
2014 Annual change in soil moisture to 2100
2014 Change at the county level
2014 Change in dangerous days by scenarios and 2100 vs. 2200
2014 Change in high-risk sectors by scenario and time-frame
2014 Change in national yield for crops by time and scenario (assuming NO CO2 fertilization)
2014 Change in property crime by county
2014 Change in violent crime by county
2014 Frequency of labor supply losses will increase significantly
2014 Number of dangerous days based on Humid Stroke Index
2014 Projected changes in frost-free season length by scenario
2014 Projected changes in lyme disease threat
2014 U.S. change in precipitation by season
2016 Climate change impact stress map
2016 Forest NPP with temperature change
2016 Met Office_Global impacts of a warming world
2016 The impact of temperature on forest area is likely to vary substantially for different forest biomes
2017 Changing Cold Hardiness zones in Oregon to 2050
2017 Forecasting OR's winter temperature change
2017 Forecasting Oregon temperatures and precipitation to 2100
2017 Forecasting Oregon's snowpack to 2069
2017 Forecasting Oregon's temperature and precipitation to the 2050s
2017 Forecasting Oregon's winter precipitation to 2069
2017 Localized SLR forecasts for the OR coast
2020 How quickly could we reach 3, 4, or 5oC?
2030 (2017) Climate change could raise extreme poverty significantly
2050 (2014) Planting zone changes over time
2050-2100 (2012) Projected return period for today’s 1 in 20 years annual maximum temperatures
2050-2100 (2015) Probability of a 50% increase in annual area cropland affected by drought
2100 (2008) Global changes in annual runoff
2100 (2012) Expected regional temperature change (degrees and SDs)
2100 (2014) Change in North American winter precipitation changes across multiple scenarios
2100 (2014) Change in per capita direct energy expenditure by state for RCP 8.5 scenario
2100 (2014) Changing heat and humid heat stroke index days by U.S. state
2100 (2014) Per capita state-level direct costs from increasing mortality under RCP 8.5 scenario
2100 (2014) Seasonal precipitation change under RCP 8.5
Air quality risks
Alabama climate risk
Annual change in mean runoff to 2100
Anticipated damage from hurricane intensification.
Arkansas climate risk
As can be seen in forecasting likely African crop failures
But with inefficiency and discounting, a very different number - 3.8 degrees.
Change in stream temperature to 2050 RCP8.5
Change in streamflow to 2050 based on RCP8.5
Change in yields by county
Chicago climate risk
Cincinnati, Columbus, and Dayton climate risk
Cleveland and Toledo climate risk
Climate change health impacts in 2030, 750 ppm
Climate change impacts on African cereal yields 2050
Climate change vs. maximum speed species can travel
Coming up with a baseline for extreme event damages, now and 2100
Comparing the summer precipitation changes for different scenarios to 2100
Coral reefs have largely dissolved by 560 ppm CO2
Des Moines climate risk
Detroit climate risk
Different model ensembles of global precipitation to 2100
Distribution of ecological biomes, and change in expected temperature by SD in 2070
Estimated changes in extreme events damage to 2040
Extreme Drought in the U.S. and Mexico
Fewer Freezing Nights by 2100
Figure SPM.6b
Figure SPM.7.
Florida climate risk
Forecasted climate trends for Central America
Forecasted precipitation changes to 2100 vary significantly geographically
Future precipitation changes will have large regional differences
Georgia climate risk
Graphic - How big a change are we talking about?
Humidity heat stroke index
Increase in global temperatures will show large regional differences
Increase in numbers of cooling degree days
Indianapolis climate risk
Insects and fire in Northwest Forests
It's possible to recalculate hurricane probabilities based on climate forecasts
Kansas City climate risk
Kentucky climate risk
Louisiana climate risk
Low river flows projected to decline significantly by 2080's
Low river flows will get a lot lower
Madison and Milwaukee climate risk
Map-based illustration of shifting in March freezing temperatures over time
Median summer temperature change
Minneapolis-St. Paul climate risk
Mississippi climate risk
NE Forests over time
New Orleans could be an island by 2100
Newer simulations for projected precipitation change
North Carolina climate risk
Precipitation changes are long-term, and dramatic
Probability of drought during this century under BAU emissions
Projected change in heavy precipitation events
Projected changes in precipitation intensity
Projected changes in season precipitation are regional
Projected changes in strong non tropical storms
Projected changes ozone related deaths, NY metro area
Projected global precipitation change
Projected increase in heat deaths
Projected increase in hurricane intensity
Projected indicators of climate change
Projecting net extreme event damages in 2100
Projections are for more fire events and more intense rainfall events
Regional precipitation forecast range
Regional temperature and precipitation probabilities based on RCP3 and RCP8.5
Resulting in reduced capacity of power plants by 2040's
River increases that will exceed temp. limits
River temperatures will increase significantly by 2080's
Satellite view
Scientists are projecting dramatic extinction rates
Sea ice change to 2100, including modeled vs. observation to date
South Carolina climate risk
St. Louis climate risk
Streamflows will shift
Tennessee climate risk
Texas climate risk
The impact implications of uncertainty around climate sensitivity
U.S. change in extrmely dry summers 2100 RCP8.5
U.S. climate variables in 2030 relative to 1990
U.S. likelihood of extreme low snow in March 2100 RCP8.5
U.S. likelihood of extremely hot summers 2050 RCP8.5
U.S. precipitation changes
Understanding our climate · Probable Futures
Virginia climate risk
Which will destabilize existing systems and agreements
Wildfire, mortality, and urban flooding risks in the U.S. now and to 2100
Winemaking regions at risk
Year of climate departure
4oC - (and 7oC) Wet bulb temperatures (35 degrees is a key threshold)
Number of people affected by flooding each year
Proportion of cropland under drought over time
Risk of a 50% increase in # of people flooded
E - Futures and Foresight Top Level
2014 CISL_IPCC AR5 - Carbon crossroads and the pathway to two degrees - Infographic
Climate change infographic reveals the four scenarios awaiting humanity
Infographic - Perspective on Time
Infographic - Timeline of the far future
Infographic The Coral Triangle
Infographic: Choose your future 4 emissions pathways
Resource stress – Future State 2030
E - Carbon Price Forecasts
E - Climate Modeling and Forecasting
E - Economic Forecasting
E - Forecasted Climate Impacts
E - Forecasting How To
E - Future Scenarios
E - Limits to Growth
E - Long-Term Thinking
E - Scenario Planning
E - Super-Forecasting
2012 Our ability to predict the future is poor
2013 The result is to act strenuously to avoid the tipping point.
2015 Global probability of exceeding 99th extremes with temperature increase
2015 Graphical representation of worst-case scenarios for 2016 and 2026 (1)
h. Note that the Commodity Index has shifted dramatically
How extreme events rapidly get more extreme
Is there only one possible future?
Key question is, in hindsight should we have seen it coming?
Low Carbon Future illustration for the Sierra Club of BC.
Natural Disasters
Potential Black Swans
Relative probability of extremes compared to pre-industrial
2007? Richard Muller graphic
Scenario timeline - Protectionist World
Scenario Timeline - Efficiency First
Scenario Timeline - Environmental War Economy
Scenario Timeline - Redefining Progress
Scenario Timeline - Service Transformation
Technological change
Tectonic Shifts Between Now and 2030
The urban proportion of population 2010 vs. 2030
Trend Blend 2007
Trend Blend 2008
Emissions likely to follow a medium to high pathway under BAU
Key technology questions for future emissions levels
Things That Will Never Happen
E - Impacts Top Level
6 of 10 wettest days in NYC have occurred since 1972
2011 Infographic - GHG Contributions vs. Climate Vulnerability
2013 Infographic - Weathermageddon Extreme Climate in Canada 2013
Could climate change transform Earth into Venus? [Infographic]
Infographic - 2013 Significant Climate Anomalies and Events
Infographic - African climate impacts
Infographic - Can We Feed 7 Billion People
Infographic - Change in annual average temperature and rainfall
Infographic - Climate Change is Unfair - Typhoon Haiyan
Infographic - Connecting the dots
Infographic - Coral Reefs
Infographic - Disastrous Spending Federal disaster relief
Infographic - future climate trends for South Asia
Infographic - Future climate trends for Africa
Infographic - History of tobacco
Infographic - How Climate Change is Destroying the Earth
Infographic - How Climate Change Will Affect Your Health
Infographic - No-More-Fish-In-The-Sea
Infographic - Observed change in temperatures and precipitation
Infographic - Risks at 2, 3, 4 Degrees
Infographic - Snapshot of a Warming World
Infographic - The Countries That Are Most (And Least) Prepared For Climate Change
Infographic - weather is getting more extreme
Infographic - Western Wildlifes and Climate Change
Infographic - Whats at stake for the worlds species
Infographic - Who's Most At Risk From Climate Change? Not The People Who Caused It
Infographic Global-impacts-for-different-emissions-scenarios
Infographic_Impacts of climate change on U.S. public transportation
Infographic_Whats at stake for the worlds forests
Infographic: How Climate Change Will Affect Your Health
Oregon Health Authority_Oregon Climate and Health Infographic
Preparing Your Home For A Natural Disaster [infographic]
Rising temperatures in New York City
Syria’s climate-fueled conflict, in one stunning comic strip
E - Changing Probability Distributions
E - Climate Change Fingerprint
E - Climate Change Tipping Points
E - Climate Vulnerability
E - Forecasted Climate Impacts
E - Impact Specific Economics
E - Impacts by Business Sector
E - Impacts by Degree
E - Impacts by Geography
E - Impacts by Time Period
E - Impacts by Type
E - Indirect Impacts
E - Long Tail Risk Impacts
E - Manifestations of climate risk
4page-companion-brochure.pdf (applicationpdf Object)
1920-2100 (2017) A massive increase in "nuisance flooding" around the U.S.
2007 Mindmap - Climate impacts
2009 Snapshot of ocean acidification
2010 Ability of ocean organizations to calcify, related to stabilized CO2 concentrations
2010 Carbon Emissions vs. Vulnerability to Climate Change by Country
2011 Premature deaths avoided in 2030 due to black carbon control
2012 Interpreting global cyclone projections to risk management in the Caribbean
2012 Interpreting global drought projections to risk management in the Sahel
2012 Interpreting global heat wave projections to risk management in Europe
2014 Projected change in property crime
2014 Projected change in violent crime rates
2014 State level per capita direct costs
2014 The arctic open for commerce
2015 Automotive
2015 Economic impact of climate change on the world
2016 1/3 of global land surface in drought in 2015
2016 2015 was warmest year for second year in a row
2016 Arctic fisheries are contracting significantly
2016 Arctic sea ice hit "lowest maximum extent" in 2015
2016 Arctic warming at double the global rate
2016 Extreme heat was widespread in in 2015
2016 Glaciers continuing to lose ice, permafrost continuing to warm
2016 Greenland ice sheet had many more melt days in 2015
2016 International dimensions of climate risk
2016 Key GHGs reached new highs in 2015
2016 Ocean levels, surface temperatures, and heat all anomalously high in 2015
2016 Remember what this report is and is not
2016 Sea levels responded significantly to El Nino
2016 UK risks and opportunities by land use type
2017 'Climate risks depend on cumulative emissions
2018 Fastest Growing Cities are Most Vulnerable to Climate Change
2018 The risks of climate change
2020 Environmental Risks' Rise to Global Dominance
2021 Change in mean precipitation and soil moisture under different levels of warming
2021 Contribution to warming under 5 scenarios
2021 Distribution of warming under different global averages
2021 Effectiveness of sinks declines as emissions increase
2021 Estimated remaining carbon budgets for target probabilities
2021 Every ton contributes to warming basically linearly
2021 Global mean sea level change in 2300 under 2 scenarios
2021 Global mean sea level rise under 5 scenarios
2021 Global surface temperature change under 5 scenarios
2021 Human influences are warming the climate at a rate unprecedented in at least 2000 years
2021 Increase in drought conditions
2021 Increase in heavy precipitation since 1950’s
2021 Increase in hot extremes since 1950’s
2021 Number of regions likely to experience changes in climatic impact-drivers
2021 Ocean acidification under 5 scenarios
2021 Precipitation and drought extremes will become more frequent
2021 Relative contributions to warming 2010-2019
2021 September Arctic sea ice under 5 scenarios
2021 Temperature extremes will get much more frequent
2021 Time and uncertainty of warming to 2100
2021 Warming to 2100 under 5 scenarios
Acceptable and unacceptable risk
Africa
And can be compared to distribution of rain-fed agriculture
Annual average temperature and economic production
Asia
Australasia
Central and South America
Changing risks of venomous snakebite
Climate change in Asia and the Pacific
Climate change will impact coastal communities in various ways
Climate change: how a warming world is a threat to our food supplies
Climate disaster events in South Asia
costs of recent extreme weather events
Differences in model forecasts of tropical cyclone frequency expressed as a percent of present day levels
Economic dependence on fossil fuel exports
Energy sector vulnerabilities to climate change - 2
Europe
Examples of major climate impacts on selected sectors
Examples of water-driven business impacts 2013-2016
Figure SPM.3
Figure SPM.9.
General ways energy systems can be affected
Global damage estimate from non-linear impacts of temperature
Graphic of 0-5 degree changes in Canada
House alone after Hurricane Ike
If we could turn back the clock
Impact on cooling and heating days very regionally different
Impacts 1- 11 Characterized
Impacts 12-22 Characterized
Impacts 23-31 Characterized
Impacts 32-37 Characterized
Infographic - Fire Risk in America
Integration of crop models and economic model
Irreversibility of climate impacts
Leading causes of death
Linking climate change to health outcomes
Lots of studies to support damages from acidification
Mapping out highest risk and lowest vulnerability countries
Marine species ability to shift range
Natural disasters have major impact on low-income countries
Notable climate anomalies and events in 2016
Polar Regions
Powerplants will face reductions in usable capacity
Projected difference in Dry days for Africa to 2050's
Projected forest changes under different climate forecasts - with and without forest suppression
Relationship between sea surface temp and hurricane power
Relative climate and policy uncertainties, examples
Relative impact of climate change on GDPs
Ruffed Grouse Range over time
Sample graphic for range change based on alternative models
Scenario 1 - Chai Time
Scenario 2 - Storm in a Teacup
Scenario 3 - Green leaf
Scenario 4 - Rebrewed
The implications of rising temperatures are bad for agriculture
Those who contribute least will be impacted most
Track of 1991 "Perfect Storm"
U.S. Natural catastrophes in 2016
We can't assume uncertainty is modest and manageable
WEF biodiversity profile
WEF climate change profile
Where hail sizes will increase
Climate responding faster than expected
Evidence we're underestimating rates of change
Some of the major impacts
Some risk analyses are trying to look at nearer-term risk
Spring 2012 in U.S. warmest on record (video)
2016 How Many Gigatons of CO2? Infographic
