Infographic - 2015 Temperature Anomaly

I:Premortems

I:1.5oCTarget

I:AbruptClimateChange

I:AcceleratedIceFreeArctic

I:AcceleratingClimateChange

I:AdaptationLimits

I:BadLuckwithLongTailRiskEvents

I:BlackSwansofClimateChange

I:BrandRisk

I:BusinessActingTooEarlyvsTooLate

I:BusinessDisruptionasBusinessRisk

I:CarbonPricingfor2oC

I:ClimateasThreatMultiplier

I:ClimateDoubt

I:ClimateFeedbacks

I:ClimateLiability

I:ClimatePolicyasBusinessRisk

I:ClimateRiskMateriality

I:ClimateSensitivityUnderestimated

I:ClimateUncertaintyasRisk

I:CloudRelatedWarmingUnderestimated

I:ConflictOverArcticResources

I:DangerousClimateChange (Deep Dive)

I:DeepAdaptation (Deep Dive)

I:DivestmentasMaterial

I:Economic/SocialCollapseNarrative

I:EmissionsIntensityasInvestmentRisk

I:EnvironmentalMigrants

I:ExceedanceCurves

I:FoodSystemShocks

I:IndirectImpactsasBusinessRisk

I:InevitablePolicyResponse

I:InvestorResponseasBusinessRisk

I:LandUseandOceanCO2SinksSaturate

I:Litigation/LiabilityasBusinessRisk

I:LowCarbonTransitionasInvestmentRisk

I:MarketTransformationasBusinessRisk

I:OperationalRisk

I:PermafrostMethaneReleasesUnderestimated

I:PhysicalImpactsasBusinessRisk

I:PlanetaryBoundaries (Deep Dive)

I:PoliticalPolarization

I:RiskDisclosureasBusinessRisk

I:RunawayClimateChange

I:SCCasCarbonPrice

I:ScenarioPlanningGeneral (Deep Dive)

I:SocialLicensetoOperateasBusinessRisk

I:SocietalCollapse

I:SupplyChainDisruptionasBusinessRisk

I:SystemicClimateRisk (Deep Dive)

I:SystemicRiskasBusinessRisk

I:SystemicRiskMateriality

I:UnacceptableClimateChange

I:UncertaintyasRisk

I:UnderestimatedSLR

I:UnderseaMethaneReleasesUnderestimated

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S - Climate Change Systemic Risk

S - Economic Futures

S - Probabilistic Decision-Making

S - Societal Futures

S - Worst Case Climate Change

N - Limits to Growth

N - Systemic Climate Risk

N - Worst Case Climate Change

T - Systemic Risk

E - 2020 - 2030 Low Carbon Pathways

E - 2050 Emissions Pathways

E - Climate Feedbacks

E - Communicating shifting extremes

E - Exceedance Curves

E - Fingerprint - Arctic Ice

E - Fingerprint - Fire Regimes

E - Fingerprint - Flooding

E - Fingerprint - Heat Extremes

E - Forecasted Probabilities

E - Impact Attribution

E - Manifestations of climate risk

E - Shifting Extremes

E - Systemic Risk

E - Worst Case Climate Change

Small average changes in temperature can hide dramatic changes at extremes

1oC - Arctic sea ice volume to 2019

1oC - Average global temperature change to 2020

1oC - Socioeconomic impacts of climate change already manifesting

1900-2010 (2011) Anomalies are clearly trending towards hot and very hot temperatures

1900-2010 (2011) U.S. temperature anomalies not nearly as clear as other parts of the world

1900-2100 (2008) Change in daily heavy precipitation events, with uncertainty

1950-2010 (2011) Fraction of surface area that's cold or hot shifting significantly

1950-2010 (2011) One can see a systematic warming signal in a number of regions

1950-2010 (2011) The extreme heat tail of anomalies has shifted by 1 SD over 3 decades

1950-2010 (2011) We can track how annual anomalies diverge in terms of SDs from the baseline

1950-2011 (2011) The fraction of land area with very high extremes is increasing

1955-2007 (2011) We can track how surface temperatures are changing over time

1955-2011 (2011) The proportion of surface area displaying >3 SDs is growing significantly

1975-2015 Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover is decreasing

1990-2005 Observed SLR vs. model projections

2003 The salinity of oceans is decreasing

2007 Cooling degree days in the U.S.

2007 Heating degree days in the U.S.

2008 And it's worse than we anticipated

2009 Acreage burned is increasing

2009 Area of Greenland subject to melting each year

2009 Choosing the right strategy in probability space

2009 Discharge of Greenland ice streams is accelerating

2009 Picture of surface melt on Greenland

2009 Risk of temperature directly related to concentrations, and varies widely over time

2009 Snapshot of ocean acidification

2009 Water stress - the ratio between withdrawal and availability - 2000

2009 We're losing a lot of ice mass in Greenland and Antarctica

2010 In probability distributions, modes and means and uncertainty are important

2010 rainfall anomaly against future probability distributions

2011 10 Warmest Years on Record

2011 In mountain glaciers

2011 Observed sea level rise over last 12 years

2011 Was a Year of Weather and Climate Extremes

2011 Why are we confident that observed warming is anthropogenic?

2011 Why are we confident that observed warming is anthropogenic? (2)

2012 - 2014 precipitation anomalies in Western U.S. (no long-term trend)

2012 10-fold increase in extreme heat events

2012 Extreme events are growing in probability faster than projected by the models

2012 In parts of East Africa there has been a substantial decrease in normal rainy seasons

2012 Model ensembles show shifts towards warmer and drier conditions from 1960's to present

2012 Ratio of high to low records in the U.S. 1950's to 2000's

2012 Significant weather related losses of 2011

2012 Western Pacific temperatures have been increasing

2013 Extreme precipitation in the U.S. is increasing

2013 Probability of catastrophe by treatment

2013 Since 1895, annual average air temperatures in CA have increased about 1.5oF

2013 Statewide average temperature trends mask major differences within the state

2013 temperatures against future probability distribution

2014 - Nightime temperature increases

2014 Coldest Nights

2014 Earth’s Surface Temperature

2014 Fires

2014 Global temperature vs. CO2

2014 Hottest Days

2014 Long-term warming and short-term variations

2014 Mountain Glaciers

2014 Ocean Heat Content

2014 Percentage of west in summer drought

2014 precipitation anomalies in Europe and South America

2014 Precipitation

2014 River Outflow

2014 Sea Level

2014 Soil Moisture

2014 Tornado Count for U.S.

2014 U.S. acres burned 1980 - 2013

2014 U.S. flooding has changed

2015 1,000 years of change

2015 Crop Moisture Stress Index (CMSI)

2015 Record high temperatures

2015 Temperature increase

2015 The shock scenario

2015 The Waggonwaybreen glacier 1900 - 2015

2016 All 10 indicators of climate change are "positive"

2016 Annual area burned in the U.S. 1984 - 2012

2016 Annual mean surface temperature anomaly

2016 Billion-dollar weather events 1980 2015

2016 Changing likelihood of extreme events

2016 Climate anomalies of 2015

2016 Comparison of El Nino strength and temperature trend

2016 Decadal mean surface temperature anomaly

2016 Global surface temperature, annual and running mean

2016 Global temperature anomalies vs. 20th century average

2016 ocean temperature anomaly against future probability distribution

2017 Changing Cold Hardiness zones in Oregon to 2050

2017 Components of sea level rise

2017 It's all about probabilities

2017 Land and ocean temperature percentiles

2017 Oceans absorbing heat

2019 A cumulative distribution function (CDF) transforms a probability distribution into an exceedance curve from 0 to 100%. A complementary CDF (CCDF) does the reverse, from 100% to 0%

2019 How did daily U.S. temperatures devitate from the historical average?

2019 How much have maximum and minimum temperatures already changed?

2019 Number of Extreme Heat Days in Australia

2030-2050 (2020) Risk of >15% global yield failure increases 2x and 5x

2040 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge

2040 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA

2050 (2014) Planting zone changes over time

2050 (2020) Economic impact of extreme flood could be 5-10 times greater than today

2060 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge

2060 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA

2080 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge

2080 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA

2100 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge

2100 (2013) Median Projected Change in Flood Hazard Parameter

2100 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA for 2100

2100 (2013) Monte Carlo Distribution for 1% Annual Flood Discharge change

Abnormal markets - stock exchange not normally distributed

Accelerating extreme heat on land

Alaskan Fires up

And rising trends in loss events

Annual area burned by wildfire is increasing rapidly

Annual number of large wildfires vs. average temperatures in the Western U.S.

Antarctic Ice Trends

Arctic Ice - Record Low Maximum

Arctic sea ice is disappearing faster than expected

Arctic Sea Ice • Climate Change

Arctic Sea Ice Thinning: Winter