I:Premortems

I:1.5oCTarget

I:AbruptClimateChange

I:AcceleratedIceFreeArctic

I:AcceleratingClimateChange

I:AdaptationLimits

I:BadLuckwithLongTailRiskEvents

I:BlackSwansofClimateChange

I:BrandRisk

I:BusinessActingTooEarlyvsTooLate

I:BusinessDisruptionasBusinessRisk

I:CarbonPricingfor2oC

I:ClimateasThreatMultiplier

I:ClimateDoubt

I:ClimateFeedbacks

I:ClimateLiability

I:ClimatePolicyasBusinessRisk

I:ClimateRiskMateriality

I:ClimateSensitivityUnderestimated

I:ClimateUncertaintyasRisk

I:CloudRelatedWarmingUnderestimated

I:ConflictOverArcticResources

I:DangerousClimateChange (Deep Dive)

I:DeepAdaptation (Deep Dive)

I:DivestmentasMaterial

I:Economic/SocialCollapseNarrative

I:EmissionsIntensityasInvestmentRisk

I:EnvironmentalMigrants

I:ExceedanceCurves

I:FoodSystemShocks

I:IndirectImpactsasBusinessRisk

I:InevitablePolicyResponse

I:InvestorResponseasBusinessRisk

I:LandUseandOceanCO2SinksSaturate

I:Litigation/LiabilityasBusinessRisk

I:LowCarbonTransitionasInvestmentRisk

I:MarketTransformationasBusinessRisk

I:OperationalRisk

I:PermafrostMethaneReleasesUnderestimated

I:PhysicalImpactsasBusinessRisk

I:PlanetaryBoundaries (Deep Dive)

I:PoliticalPolarization

I:RiskDisclosureasBusinessRisk

I:RunawayClimateChange

I:SCCasCarbonPrice

I:ScenarioPlanningGeneral (Deep Dive)

I:SocialLicensetoOperateasBusinessRisk

I:SocietalCollapse

I:SupplyChainDisruptionasBusinessRisk

I:SystemicClimateRisk (Deep Dive)

I:SystemicRiskasBusinessRisk

I:SystemicRiskMateriality

I:UnacceptableClimateChange

I:UncertaintyasRisk

I:UnderestimatedSLR

I:UnderseaMethaneReleasesUnderestimated

I:UnknownUnknownsofClimateChange

S - Climate Change Systemic Risk

S - Economic Futures

S - Probabilistic Decision-Making

S - Societal Futures

S - Worst Case Climate Change

N - Limits to Growth

N - Systemic Climate Risk

N - Worst Case Climate Change

T - Systemic Risk

E - 2020 - 2030 Low Carbon Pathways

E - 2050 Emissions Pathways

E - Climate Feedbacks

E - Systemic Risk

E - Worst Case Climate Change

E - Communicating shifting extremes

E - Exceedance Curves

E - Forecasted Probabilities

Small average changes in temperature can hide dramatic changes at extremes

1oC - Socioeconomic impacts of climate change already manifesting

1900-2010 (2011) Anomalies are clearly trending towards hot and very hot temperatures

1900-2010 (2011) U.S. temperature anomalies not nearly as clear as other parts of the world

1950-2010 (2011) Fraction of surface area that's cold or hot shifting significantly

1950-2010 (2011) One can see a systematic warming signal in a number of regions

1950-2010 (2011) The extreme heat tail of anomalies has shifted by 1 SD over 3 decades

1950-2010 (2011) We can track how annual anomalies diverge in terms of SDs from the baseline

1950-2011 (2011) The fraction of land area with very high extremes is increasing

1955-2007 (2011) We can track how surface temperatures are changing over time

1955-2011 (2011) The proportion of surface area displaying >3 SDs is growing significantly

2009 Choosing the right strategy in probability space

2009 Risk of temperature directly related to concentrations, and varies widely over time

2010 In probability distributions, modes and means and uncertainty are important

2010 rainfall anomaly against future probability distributions

2012 Extreme events are growing in probability faster than projected by the models

2012 Ratio of high to low records in the U.S. 1950's to 2000's

2013 Probability of catastrophe by treatment

2013 temperatures against future probability distribution

2015 The shock scenario

2016 Annual mean surface temperature anomaly

2016 Changing likelihood of extreme events

2016 Comparison of El Nino strength and temperature trend

2016 Decadal mean surface temperature anomaly

2016 Global surface temperature, annual and running mean

2016 ocean temperature anomaly against future probability distribution

2017 It's all about probabilities

2019 A cumulative distribution function (CDF) transforms a probability distribution into an exceedance curve from 0 to 100%. A complementary CDF (CCDF) does the reverse, from 100% to 0%

2030-2050 (2020) Risk of >15% global yield failure increases 2x and 5x

2040 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge

2040 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA

2050 (2020) Economic impact of extreme flood could be 5-10 times greater than today

2060 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge

2060 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA

2080 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge

2080 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA

2100 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge

2100 (2013) Median Projected Change in Flood Hazard Parameter

2100 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA for 2100

2100 (2013) Monte Carlo Distribution for 1% Annual Flood Discharge change

Abnormal markets - stock exchange not normally distributed

Attribution of changing water scarcity to climate and population

b. By increasing variability with the existing mean

Beta distribution

Brownian motion and stock prices - normal distributions

CCDF complementary cumulative probability function

Change in exceedance probability for normally distributed data

Change in risk of occurrence due to a trend in the mean

Changing global water scarcity risk levels

Changing likelihood of Australian extreme events

Changing likelihood of flooding

Changing temperature probabilities in Colorado River Basin

Conceptual diagram of shifting probabilities

Does climate fit into normal distribution? Evidence that it does not

Effect of mitigation on global emergence in drivers of ecosystem stress

End-century project flow reductions Colorado River Basin

Expected extremes based on linear change in SD

Future warming projections constrasting model vs. paleo estimates

Gamma distribution

Geographic variation in attribution variables

Increase in probability of extremes

It's a Matter of Risk and Probabiliy

Lognormal distribution

Mapped Amplification Factors

Mapping flood levels

Mid-century projected flow reductions Colorado River Basin

Moscow July Anomalies

Normal/Gaussian distribution

Northwest Atlantic cod harvest

Power law = better fit for stock extremes

Probability distribution with varying uncertainty around the same mean

Probability distribution with varying uncertainty around the same mode

Reconstructed global mean temperatures

Redrawing this figure using a ratio scale

Regional variation in water scarcity

Responding to fire risks: unlikely but we buy fire insurance

SAT Surface Air Temperature

Sensitivity of global SAT to radiative forcing anomalies

Shifting distribution of temperature anomalies in the Northern hemisphere, winter and summer

SST Sea Surface Temperature

Stock market performance on a ratio scale

Storylines used for RCPs and SSPs

The "tails" of normal and fat-tailed distribution

The 2003 European heat wave against the normal distribution

The distribution of outcomes of rolling 10 dice at once

The distribution of outcomes of rolling two dice

The more dice, the closer you get to a "normal" distribution

The normal probability curve

Three possible outcomes in terms of probability shifts

understanding shifts in extremes due to climate change

Variations in severity of water scarcity

Weibull distribution

Why uncertainty increases risk

2020-2050 (2020) Increase in long tail risk of hurricane damages in Florida

And climate tipping points may be much more likely than we've thought

And there's a clear analogy to abrupt climate change

Precautionary principle: making decisions without probabilities sensible, but don't take to extremes

What causes extreme events in nature and in finance

Infographic - 2015 Temperature Anomaly

E - Fingerprint - Arctic Ice

E - Fingerprint - Fire Regimes

E - Fingerprint - Flooding

E - Fingerprint - Heat Extremes

E - Impact Attribution

E - Manifestations of climate risk

E - Shifting Extremes

1oC - Arctic sea ice volume to 2019

1oC - Average global temperature change to 2020

1oC - Socioeconomic impacts of climate change already manifesting

1900-2010 (2011) Anomalies are clearly trending towards hot and very hot temperatures

1900-2100 (2008) Change in daily heavy precipitation events, with uncertainty

1950-2010 (2011) Fraction of surface area that's cold or hot shifting significantly

1950-2010 (2011) One can see a systematic warming signal in a number of regions

1950-2010 (2011) We can track how annual anomalies diverge in terms of SDs from the baseline

1950-2011 (2011) The fraction of land area with very high extremes is increasing

1955-2007 (2011) We can track how surface temperatures are changing over time

1955-2011 (2011) The proportion of surface area displaying >3 SDs is growing significantly

1975-2015 Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover is decreasing

1990-2005 Observed SLR vs. model projections

2003 The salinity of oceans is decreasing

2007 Cooling degree days in the U.S.

2007 Heating degree days in the U.S.

2008 And it's worse than we anticipated

2009 Acreage burned is increasing

2009 Area of Greenland subject to melting each year

2009 Discharge of Greenland ice streams is accelerating

2009 Picture of surface melt on Greenland

2009 Snapshot of ocean acidification

2009 Water stress - the ratio between withdrawal and availability - 2000

2009 We're losing a lot of ice mass in Greenland and Antarctica

2011 10 Warmest Years on Record

2011 In mountain glaciers

2011 Observed sea level rise over last 12 years

2011 Was a Year of Weather and Climate Extremes

2011 Why are we confident that observed warming is anthropogenic?

2011 Why are we confident that observed warming is anthropogenic? (2)

2012 - 2014 precipitation anomalies in Western U.S. (no long-term trend)

2012 10-fold increase in extreme heat events

2012 Extreme events are growing in probability faster than projected by the models

2012 In parts of East Africa there has been a substantial decrease in normal rainy seasons

2012 Model ensembles show shifts towards warmer and drier conditions from 1960's to present

2012 Significant weather related losses of 2011

2012 Western Pacific temperatures have been increasing

2013 Extreme precipitation in the U.S. is increasing

2013 Since 1895, annual average air temperatures in CA have increased about 1.5oF

2013 Statewide average temperature trends mask major differences within the state

2014 - Nightime temperature increases

2014 Coldest Nights

2014 Earth’s Surface Temperature

2014 Fires

2014 Global temperature vs. CO2

2014 Hottest Days

2014 Long-term warming and short-term variations

2014 Mountain Glaciers

2014 Ocean Heat Content

2014 Percentage of west in summer drought

2014 precipitation anomalies in Europe and South America

2014 Precipitation

2014 River Outflow

2014 Sea Level

2014 Soil Moisture

2014 Tornado Count for U.S.

2014 U.S. acres burned 1980 - 2013

2014 U.S. flooding has changed

2015 1,000 years of change

2015 Crop Moisture Stress Index (CMSI)

2015 Record high temperatures

2015 Temperature increase

2015 The Waggonwaybreen glacier 1900 - 2015

2016 All 10 indicators of climate change are "positive"

2016 Annual area burned in the U.S. 1984 - 2012

2016 Billion-dollar weather events 1980 2015

2016 Climate anomalies of 2015

2016 Global temperature anomalies vs. 20th century average

2017 Changing Cold Hardiness zones in Oregon to 2050

2017 Components of sea level rise

2017 Land and ocean temperature percentiles

2017 Oceans absorbing heat

2019 How did daily U.S. temperatures devitate from the historical average?

2019 How much have maximum and minimum temperatures already changed?

2019 Number of Extreme Heat Days in Australia

2050 (2014) Planting zone changes over time

Accelerating extreme heat on land

Alaskan Fires up

And rising trends in loss events

Annual area burned by wildfire is increasing rapidly

Annual number of large wildfires vs. average temperatures in the Western U.S.

Antarctic Ice Trends

Arctic Ice - Record Low Maximum

Arctic sea ice is disappearing faster than expected

Arctic Sea Ice • Climate Change

Arctic Sea Ice Thinning: Winter

Arctic temperature change

Areas burned up dramatically

Australian records

Average July High temperatures

BAMS 2014 State of the Climate

Billion dollar weather disasters

Billion Dollar Weather Disasters 1980-2010 economic damage caused by weather vulnerability

billion-dollar weather disasters in 2014 in the US

California

California Palmer Drought Severity Index over time

Carbon Dioxide • Climate Change

Catastrophe losses by cause in U.S. 1994 - 2013

Change in cool/warm days and nights since 1960

Changes in # of days with unusually warm daily low temp

Changes in daily low and high temperatures in N America

Changes in daily temperature range - Mexico

Changes in U.S. frost-free season length

Changing forest fires

Changing ocean acidification

Charting a large number of ECVs

CO2 and Temp since 1880

Comparing 1951-1980 and 2005 - to 2015

Correlation of disease outbreaks with El Nino

Costliest natural catastrophes since 1950

Current Impacts - Ecosystems

Current Impacts - Extreme weather events and weather losses

Current Impacts - Human health

Dana Glacier

Days Above 95 degrees by 2100

Dec 7 to Dec 20 precipitation anomalies in Western U.S.

Decadal mean temperatures

Decadal near surface global average temperature anomaly

Decline in arctic sea ice extent

Decreases in number of frost days per year

Degree of understanding of climate influence for key impacts in North America

Disaster relief costs in the U.S. are increasing

Drought and drought-related costs in the U.S. are increasing

During the 20th century we've seen a significant increase in drought severity

Early efforts looking for the climate signal

Earth's temperature doesn't correlate to sun

Economic losses from natural catastrophes

El Niño • Climate Change

Extreme Heat • Climate Change

Extreme weather bell curve

Extreme weather in 2013

Extreme weather metrics

Fall Temperature Trends

Figure SPM.2a

Figure SPM.4a

Forecasted decrease in Sierra Nevada snow pack

Frost-free season is getting longer

Future climate shift

Glacier mass balance

Glacier mass changes in California

Glacier retreat

Global average temperature

Global flood catastrophes have tripled

Global Surface Temp Record - NAS Public

Global Temperature • Climate Change

Goddard Glacier

Google search for "Pollen" are on the rise

Graphic - Mountain GlacierThinning

Graphics - NASA Global Maps Timeseries across multiple variables

Heavy Downpours Increasing

Higher temperatures will increase demand

Historic precipitation trend is upward

How we know climate change is happening

Hurricane counts - Atlantic 1851-2006

Hurricane Power North Atlantic

Hurricanes may get stronger

Hurricans acting differently in North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific

Ice cover declining in the Great Lakes

Ice cover on Lake Mendota in Wisconsin

Ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica

Images of Change - Hundreds of photos showing all kinds of relevant change

In 2011 arctic ice extent continued to fall

In arctic ice

In Greenland

Increase in Cooling and Heating Demand Days

Increases in heavy rainfall over 90 days

Increases in intense precipitation - N America

Increases in wave heights

Increasing tree mortality in the Sierra Nevada

Indicators of climate change abound

Indicators of climate change in California

Indicators of warming from multiple datasets

Intense precipitation rises most in the NE

Interactive map of extreme weather and climate events of 2013

IPCC has looked at likelihood of different kinds of extreme events

January 2016 temperatures vs. 1951-80 average

Land Ice • Climate Change

Large US weather disasters 1980-2007

Long term climate trends continued in 2011

Loss events in the U.S. 1980 - 2014

Loss events worldwide 1980 - 2014

Loss events worldwide 2014

Major natural disasters 1972-2008

Maximum and minimum summer temperatures, by region in CA

Maximum temperatures in CA are rising much more slowly than minimum temperatures

Melting of Arctic land-based ice

Monthly arctic ice events

More frost-free days

More U.S. 1" Downpours

More U.S. 2" Downpours

More U.S. 3" Downpours

Moscow July Anomalies

Muir glacier, before. . .

Munich Re Climate Events

Natural Disasters in 2015 per Munich Re

New indicators being added to better understand climate

Numbers of weather-related loss events to 2014

Observed change in very heavy precipitation

Observed change in very heavy precipitation

Observed shifts in streamflow timing

Observed U.S. precipitation change

Ocean acidification

Ocean acidification is increasing in California

Ocean Acidification • Climate Change

Ocean heat content

Permafrost temperatures rising

Plant hardiness map

Plant hardiness zone maps seems to be changing rapidly

Potential disease impacts - Pine Beetles in the Great Lakes

Precipitation events have been getting more intense

Precipitation Extremes in the U.S. are Increasing

Ranking of hottest years

Ratio of record daily highs to lows for U.S. is changing

Record Temperatures 2015 Jan and Feb

Regional Changes in Climate Extremes

Regional temperature change

Regional variations in warming

Relationship between sea surface temp and hurricane power

Sea level rise

Sea level rise at Golden Gate

Sea Level Rise • Climate Change

Severe weather reports in the U.S. 2014

Shift in the timing of snowmelt

Shifting distribution of summer temperature anomalies GIF

Sierra Nevada precipitation is basically unchanged

Sierra Nevada snowmelt is declining

Significant climate anomalies and event May 2016

Significant climate anomalies in 2014

Spring Comes Early Across the U.S.

State of the Climate: Extreme Events

Streamflow from Snowmelt coming earlier

Summer Temp Trends

Summer Temperature Trends

Temperature change over the last 22 years

Texas drought 2011

The European heat wave of 2003

The Heat is On: U.S. Temperature Trends 1912-2011

The Heat is On: U.S. Temperature Trends 1970-2011

The loss of James Island

The Matterhorn, before . . .

The probability of heat waves in TX has increased substantially

The start to 2016

The underlying data.

There are more man-made than natural catastrophers

These 10 seconds show just how big of a problem drought has become in California

Top 10 Hardest Hit States of 2011

Tundra greenness has increased 15% by 1982

U.S. precipitation change observed and forecast by scenario

U.S. temperature change observed and forecast by scenario

U.S. temperature records are trending upward in ratio of high to low

U.S. Thunderstorm Loss Trends

U.S. trend in extreme precipitation during storms

U.S. Wildfires • Climate Change

Variation in cold season storms

Very clear trends in extreme precipitation

Warming Winters in the U.S.

We're already seeing changes

We're confident that it's human activities

We're setting more records for warm days than cold days

Weather losses are climbing, while insured proportion is decreasing

Weather related grid disruptions have been increasing

What do multi-year averages look like in the temperature record?

Which Season is Warming Fastest

Wildfires in western US vs average monthly maximum temperature 1980-99

Winter 2015-16 anomalies vs past average

Winter 2015-16 Anomaly

Climate responding faster than expected

Current impacts - Permafrost

Current Impacts - "Tropics" are expanding

Current Impacts - Power Production

Its happening faster than the IPCC anticipated

Sea level rise is accelerating

We know some impacts being observed sooner than projected