E - Technology Disruption
2016 An example of technology disruption LEDs
2004 Kostoff_Disruptive technology roadmaps
Combining literature-based discovery and roadmapping enhances likelihood of success
Current strategic planning processes promoting current rather than new disruptive technologies
Disruptive vs. discontinuous innovations
Identifying disruptive technologies
It should be possible to identify disruptive technologies
Large firms tend to prefer sustaining technologies
Lithium, sulfur, and other materials that make this new battery are abundant
New Year’s Resolution: Commercialize Free Energy Technology
Step 1 - define the problem or opportunity to be addressed
Step 2 - retrieve the full literature that addresses the problem
Step 3 - Identify the high priority technology alternatives
Step 4 - Identify experts for workshops and roadmapping
Step 5 - Construct roadmap
Successful organizations fail because they don't recognize distinction of sustaining and disruptive technologies
E - Electric Sector Extracts
E - Technology Innovation
Technology adoption in US households, 1860-2019
I:ElectricSectorInnovation
I:ElectricSectorMitigation/Adaptation
I:ElectricSectorResponses
I:ElectricSectorTechnologies
I:ElectricSectorVulnerability
I:Electroencephalographic
I:EVElectricCarsLightTrucks
I:EVsandAutonomousVehicles
I:RailroadElectrification
S - Carbon Pricing Futures
S - Electric Sector Adaptation/Resilience
S - Electric Sector Best Climate Practice
S - Electric Sector Business Response
S - Electric Sector Climate Risk Assessment
S - Electric Sector Climate Risk Management
S - Electric Sector Futures
S - Electric Sector Mitigation
S - Electric Sector Operations
S - Electric Sector Regulation and Policy
S - Electricity Transmission
S - EPA Regulation of Carbon Under the CAA
S - Impacts - Electric Sector
S - Impacts - Renewable Energy
S - Innovation and Disruption in the Electric Sector
S - Low Carbon Transitions in the Electric Sector
S - Natural Gas and Climate Change
S - Natural Gas Mitigation
N - CAA and CPP Litigation
N - CCS Carbon Capture and Storage
N - Distributed generation
N - Electric Sector Emissions Reductions
N - Electric Sector News - Topical
N - Electric Sector Responses
N - EPA Regulation of Carbon
N - Technology Disruption
V - EPA Regulation of Carbon
E - Blockchain and CryptoCurrencies
E - Cryptocurrencies and Climate Change
E - Electric Sector Business Risk
E - Electric Sector Futures
E - Electric Sector Investor Expectations
E - Electric Sector Low Carbon Pathways
E - Electric Sector Responses
E - Electric Sector Risk Assessment
E - Electric Sector Vulnerabilities/Impacts
E - EPA Regulation of Carbon
E - Evaluating Technology Potentials
E - Innovation and Diffusion Barriers
E - Low Carbon Transition Policy
E - Speed of Technology Diffusion
E - Technology Uncertainties
2002 Climate reporting in the utilities sector
2008 Climate concerns will dramatically change power mix
2008 Coal and nuclear generation will see biggest abatement spending
2008 Mitigation efforts could double global power Capex
2008 Nuclear is the cheapest option if we price carbon
2009 $20/ton Carbon = 15-30% Rise in Electricity Rates
2009 Electric sector capacity to 2050
2009 Utilities see managed and unmanaged risks
2011 Climate change will affect both supply and demand
2011 Key technology innovation realms
2012 Renewables are making major strides in getting closer to grid parity
2012 Utilities may face a point at which consumers revolt, and utilities can't assume full rate recovery
2014 Annual US capacity additions by technology
2014 Assumed future capacity additions
2014 Coal replaced by natural gas
2014 Installed capacity by resource to 2030
2015 Shifting electricity demand
2015 Total electricity spend action and inaction
2016 China will be largest EV consumer
2016 Electric sector innovation opportunities
2016 Electricity demand from EVs will soar
2016 Electricity generation across MCS scenarios
2016 EV sales rise rapidly after 2025
2016 Levelized cost of electricity for generation sources
2016 Net electricity generation to 2050
2020 Electric generation mix to 2050
2020 Electricity generating capacity additions 2010-2019 by source
2020 Systems and technologies to accomplish an energy transformation
2021 Average LCOE for offshore wind to 2050
2021 Cost learning rate curve for new technologies
A lot of infrastructure is getting close to end-of-life
Aggressive innovation in multiple dimensions
Anticipated new additions to 2030
Average credit rating of IOUs has fallen from A or higher to BBB
But levelized cost does not factor in potential risks
CCS costs vs other technologies
Chamber_Map of electricity price increases
Climate change a big utility wild card
Coal Consumption (per capita) statistics
Coal is cheaper than the alternatives
Coal mining is shifting to the west
Coal still provides 37% of country's electricity
Distribution of energy storage technologies
Electricity sector value chain
Energy storage capacity required in 100% renewable electricity scenarios
Examples of important output-to Input ratios
Expect load growth to continue
Global annual installed wind capacity
Higher temperatures will increase demand
Industrial sector innovation opportunities
IOU Concerns on a 1-5 Scale
Peak load varies linearly with peak temperature
Power demands in India significantly affected by CC
Public Utility Concerns on a 1-5 Scale
PV could have a significant impact on economics of utilties
Re Myth 1 - The reality is that it's not an S curve
Re Myth 2 - There is no necessary link between rates of change in old and new technologies
Re Myth 3 - Technologies have radically different rates of improvement
Re Myth 4 - No evidence that performance and cost progress happen at different points on the curve
Re Myth 5 - There is no point of cumulative production that causes costs to fall
Re Myth 6 - We can analyze the future as opposed to predicting the future
Resulting in this ranking, based on mid-point costs
Risks associated with new generation resources
Same point in 4-quadrant format
Showing that costs and risks aren't very aligned
Technology innovation curves
The utility risk picture is complicated
There are lots of transmission lines
U.S. generating capacity by in-service year and fuel type
Utilities do anticipate climate policy
Utilities prefer cap and trade
Utilities see a hybrid generation/distribution model
Utilities see themselves in a mixed position on technology issues
Very hard to see how renewables get us there
Weather related grid disruptions have been increasing
Wind provides 4.1% of electricity in 2013
10. Why You as an Optimist Should Wake Up Tomorrow Morning
Dow Jones U.S. Coal Index: INDEXDJX:DJUSCL quotes & news
Examples of fascinating technology developments
Hi-tech solutions to climate change are a dead end
Need to accelerate technology progress
007 The stage of technology development
The use of policy to drive this energy transition differentiates it from other transitions
Waste fo fuel and feedstock
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Headings - Extracted Materials
E - Technology Disruption
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