2017 Temperature vs. the likelihood of tipping points
2017 Some of these tipping points even within the Paris Agreement
E - Climate Change Tipping Points
E - Planetary Boundaries
2017 Rockstrom_Beyond the Anthropocene
2016 Schellnhuber_Why the right climate target was agreed in Paris $$
E - Anthropocene
E - Climate Response Tipping Points
E - Limits to Growth
E - Tipping Point Remote Sensing
Are disaster scenarios about tipping points like ‘turning off the Gulf Stream’ and release of methane from the Arctic a cause for concern?
2009 A Planet in Ecological Debt
2009 The new "business as usual" of extreme events
2009 There are many high-consequence outcomes associated with different mitigation scenarios other than tipping points per se
2010 There's a bunch of physical science we're worried about, but can't model well
2011 Potential non-linear tipping points
2011 The expansion of PAT since 1950 is astounding
2012 Global fisheries production 1950-2010
2013 An early assessment of tipping point probabilities
2013 Once you cross a tipping point, it may be very hard to go back
2014 Potential tipping points
2015 Tipping points shouldn’t be thought of in isolation. Potential large scale disruptions could interact and cascade
2016 IAMs are at the core of climate change economic analysis, but have a very hard incorporating tipping points
2017 Climate tipping points potentially within the range of Paris Agreement outcomes
2017 Planet’s response is no longer linear
2017 Scientists are getting more alarmed about unexpected events
2017 The ice core data is key because it tracks the development of humans
2017 We can no longer exclude destabilizing the earth system
2017 We need a "carbon law" like Moore's law - to reduce emissions by 50% per decade
2017 We're seeing some indication of the shift towards avoiding global risks, and seizing opportunities
2017 What if we meet the SDGs by 2030, and stay within planetary boundaries by 2050
2017 Where we are vs. where we need to be on emissions
2018 Biophysical boundaries crossed - by nation
2018 Earth system feedbacks lead to sinks that absorb about half of anthropogenic emissions, with the remainder contributing to atmospheric increase
2018 Net carbon exchange and photosynthesis anomalies over the satellite record for southern and northern land areas. Photosynthesis does not fully explain variation in carbon exchange.
2018 The fate of fossil fuel over the 1959–2015 CO2 record
2019 Display of climate tipping points
2020 AMOC impacts on Atlantic oceanic temperature projection
2020 AMOC strength and global mean surface air temperature
2020 Arctic sea ice projections and AMOC impacts
2020 Atmosphere temperature and zonal wind projections and AMOC impacts
2020 Cascading potential climate tipping points based on temperature outcomes
2020 Evidence of tipping points is increasing
2020 Four main tipping point characteristics may be identified for early warning signals
2020 Identification of tipping points, showing transition from stable food security conditions to a food crisis resulting from drought in Ethiopia
2020 Impacts of human activities on natural systems over the last 10,000 years
2020 In this model, the transition of interest is the regime shift from favorable food security conditions into a food crisis, and vice versa.
2020 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
2020 Potential climate change tipping points
2020 Surface temperature and precipitation projections and AMOC impacts
2020 The climate system is now believed to be much more sensitive to temperature change than just 20 years ago.
2021 Cascades of abrupt changes in physical–ecological–societal components of the Earth system
2021 Map of selected atmospheric, oceanographic, ecosystem and societal records with abrupt changes or tipping points in
2021 Timeline of abrupt events
2021 Tipping point examples
2021 Updated climate change tipping point
2022 Candidate tipping elements in the climate system
2022 Global mean sea level change relative to 1900
2022 Global warming threshold estimates for global core and regional impact climate tipping elements
2022 Implications of global GHG emission trajectories by 2050 for overshooting 1.5°C
2022 Interactions between climate tipping elements and their roles in tipping cascades
2022 Overview of recent economic analyses incorporating the risk of tipping points
2022 Percentage of global land suitable for crop growth
2022 Potential impacts of crossing selected tipping points
2022 Progression of GHG emissions reductions pledges and projections 2009 to 2021
2022 Risk evaluation based on probability and potential impact of an outcome
2022 Schematic of possible interactions and cascading effects between Earth and human systems
2022 September Arctic sea ice area projections to 2100
2022 Temperature and precipitation responses to an AMOC collapse under 2.5ºC of warming above pre-industrial levels
2022 Temperature thresholds and uncertainty ranges of tipping points
2022 Time series - climate response metrics
2022 Time series - human activity metrics
2022 Total anthropogenic GHG emissions 1990 - 2019
2023 A conceptual regional transect from moist to dry localities depicting examples of local to regional feedbacks of forest cover with the land and atmosphere
2023 A framework for prioritising ‘sensitive interventions’ close to a tipping point
2023 Antarctic sea ice evolution 1979-2023 - Time series of Antarctic sea ice area
2023 Arctic sea ice evolution 1979-2023
2023 Avoiding food loss and waste, shifting to more plant-based diets and improving farming practice through agro-ecological approaches are key leverage points
2023 Cascading effects from renewable energy supply to household energy demand
2023 Cascading impacts of rising sea levels across systems
2023 Causal feedback loop of how technical and social elements may interact within the EV transition
2023 Changing risk assessment of tipping points in IPCC reports over time
2023 Circulations and potential tipping systems in the Southern Ocean
2023 Conceptual linkages between changes in the Earth system associated with the Eocene-Oligocene Transition, 34 million years ago
2023 Data visualisation dashboard showing how food security transitions are detected with remotely sensed soil moisture data and food price data
2023 Different AMOC modes and palaeo-evidence
2023 Early indicators before a tipping point
2023 Engineering approaches at the scale of Earth system tipping elements
2023 Example of a tipping point in the context of food security
2023 Examples of impact of extreme weather events on mental health across the world
2023 Features of the Paris Agreement that need adjustment to account for climate tipping points
2023 Feedbacks that could lead to savanna tipping
2023 Financial barriers to Earth system tipping points preparedness in the Global South
2023 Forcing a system past a tipping point
2023 Global distribution of dryland subtypes based on the aridity index
2023 Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
2023 Illustration of the Earth system showing the different “spheres”
2023 Impact of AMOC collapse on UK water supply and arable crops
2023 Impacts of tipping points on different sectors: AMOC, ice sheet, Arctic sea ice loss, permafrost, Amazon dieback
2023 Interactions between established and more speculative tipping systems on a world map
2023 Interactions between tipping systems across scales in space and time.
2023 Interactive role of eutrophication, DOM-export (browning), and warming on lakes
2023 Key biophysical impacts resulting from crossing tipping points in the cryosphere
2023 Locations of reported regime shifts and potential tipping points in the global marine environment
2023 Map of cryosphere systems
2023 Map of drylands vulnerability to predicted changes in aridity for 2100 based on IPCC RCP8.5 scenario (i.e. under assumption of sustained increase in CO2 emissions).
2023 Map of recent coral reef bleaching distribution
2023 Map of studies that use empirical data to look for early warning signals (EWS) of tipping points in climate systems
2023 Observed mass change of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
2023 Overview of projected changes in extreme El Niño events in CMIP6 climate models
2023 Overview over the major oceanic circulation systems in the North Atlantic
2023 Per capita average carbon footprint and its breakdown for selected countries
2023 Permafrost changes under climate change and subsequent effects on environment and society
2023 Positive feedbacks can drive changes in dietary norms
2023 Potential changes in mid-latitude atmospheric circulations, exemplary for the Northern Hemisphere.
2023 Potential tipping systems in ocean and atmosphere circulations
2023 Projected impacts of Amazon forest loss on heat stress risk
2023 Regional differences in climate drivers (long-term trends and extreme events) leading to mangrove impacts
2023 Representation of hysteresis, showing how a system starts in a stable state, then passes a tipping point
2023 Schematic illustrating some key feedbacks related to Arctic sea ice loss
2023 Schematic illustrating some of the key feedbacks in the ice sheet-climate system
2023 Schematic Illustration of Marine Ice Sheet Instability and Marine Ice Cliff Instability
2023 Schematic of a marine food web
2023 Schematic showing key feedbacks that could lead to dryland tipping
2023 Self-sustaining change due to strong positive/amplifyign feedbacks
2023 Social systems negative tipping elements
2023 Strategic interventions for triggering positive tipping points
2023 Summary of evidence for tipping dynamics, key drivers and biophysical impacts in different systems (1)
2023 Summary of evidence for tipping dynamics, key drivers and biophysical impacts in different systems (2)
2023 Summary of evidence for tipping dynamics, key drivers and biophysical impacts in different systems (3)
2023 Summary of evidence for tipping dynamics, key drivers and biophysical impacts in different systems (4)
2023 Summary table of marine environment tipping points
2023 Terminology and some key feedbacks related to mountain glacier retreat
2023 Three types of tipping points
2023 Tipping cascades in coral reefs and small-scale fisheries
2023 Tipping cascades in Lake Chad
2023 Tipping cascades in migration
2023 Tipping cascades in the Amazon rainforest
2023 Tipping cascades in the Arab Spring
2023 Various impact pathways of negative Earth system tipping points: cascading impacts of AMOC collapse, cascading impacts of ice sheet instability.
2023 Visual summary of the concept of positive tipping points
2023 Where are we reaching tipping points in the ocean
Based on IPCC analysis in 2001, 2oC seemed like the "guardrail" threshold between acceptable and dangerous
Environmental resources
Global forcing has expanded rapidly with population
Great Acceleration in human activities began in the 1950's
Planetary Boundaries
The next 50 years will determine the next 10,000 years
Top 10 Hardest Hit States of 2011
We can't assume that the systems are linear
We can't assume uncertainty is modest and manageable
We have fundamentally shifted out of planetary boundaries
200X We overshot planet's carrying capacity in mid-1980's
1oC - may be enough to trigger climate tipping points
3oC - tipping points may get a lot more dangerous
5 - Tipping points
A lot of economic modeling of climate change assumes there is no tipping point
A recent analysis gives a best estimate for a collapse of the AMOC at a threshold of 4°C, with a range of 1.4°C to 8°C.
Adaptation has a crucial role to play in reducing all three main drivers of climate risk, namely managing vulnerability and exposure of populations as well as managing physical hazards directly.
And climate tipping points may be much more likely than we've thought
As fossil fuels are phased out, pressures on the biosphere are likely to increase.
Better understanding potential tipping points is critical
Climate models have been unable to adequately incorporate tipping points
Despite progress in mitigation plans over the past two decades, even if announced emissions reduction pledges for 2030 and 2050 are implemented, we would still have 1.8 °C of temperature increase by the end of the century
Earth goes from being a friend to a foe
Even with a stabilisation of the climate at 2°C to 3°C of warming above 1850-1900 levels, ice sheets could be lost irreversibly and almost completely.
Extreme ideologies and polarization will accelerate global ecological decline
Incremental linear BAU is no longer an option
Need an exponential journey toward sustainability
Overwhelming evidence that we face a new nexus of global risk
Permafrost feedbacks have been overlooked by the IPCC
Permafrost is a critical variable that has been generally overlooked
Potential tipping points
Recent findings suggest that many climate tipping points can be crossed, with a considerably higher probability and at much lower levels of warming than previously assumed
Subjective estimate of one "tip": 16% to 2oC 56% for more than 4oC
The Amazon could already be tipping toward a non-forest ecosystem
The existence of multiple uncertain tipping points doubles the optimal carbon tax
The planetary boundaries should be organized as a wedding cake to reflect foundational importance
The problems facing the Earth will worsen in coming decades, causing centuries of negative impacts
The risk of climate tipping points implies a key role for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies
Threshold effects can manifest suddenly
Tipping points are the equivalent of driving into a fog without a working speedometer
Tipping points have significant implications for thinking about SCC
Until 1990 planet's response to human activities largely linear
We started moving out of the Holocene in 1750, but didn't really notice for quite a while
With some imagination can include tipping points in the analysis.
No more concurrent uploads are allowed - wait until at least one has finished.
Select files to upload
or use drag and drop
Select files to upload
or use drag and drop
Select files to upload
or use drag and drop
Select files to upload
or use drag and drop
Select files to upload
or use drag and drop
Individual Graphics
2017 Temperature vs. the likelihood of tipping points
2017 Rockstrom_Beyond the Anthropocene
Evaluating the Near-Term Relevance of Climate Change Tipping Points
Under-Estimating Climate Risk