Individual Graphics
2017 Temperature vs. the likelihood of tipping points
2017 Rockstrom_Beyond the Anthropocene
Evaluating the Near-Term Relevance of Climate Change Tipping Points
Under-Estimating Climate Risk
2017 Some of these tipping points even within the Paris Agreement
E - Climate Change Tipping Points
E - Climate Response Tipping Points
E - Tipping Point Remote Sensing
Are disaster scenarios about tipping points like ‘turning off the Gulf Stream’ and release of methane from the Arctic a cause for concern?
2009 There are many high-consequence outcomes associated with different mitigation scenarios other than tipping points per se
2011 Potential non-linear tipping points
2013 An early assessment of tipping point probabilities
2013 Once you cross a tipping point, it may be very hard to go back
2014 Potential tipping points
2015 Tipping points shouldn’t be thought of in isolation. Potential large scale disruptions could interact and cascade
2016 IAMs are at the core of climate change economic analysis, but have a very hard incorporating tipping points
2017 Climate tipping points potentially within the range of Paris Agreement outcomes
2017 Planet’s response is no longer linear
2017 Temperature vs. the likelihood of tipping points
2017 We can no longer exclude destabilizing the earth system
2018 Earth system feedbacks lead to sinks that absorb about half of anthropogenic emissions, with the remainder contributing to atmospheric increase
2018 Net carbon exchange and photosynthesis anomalies over the satellite record for southern and northern land areas. Photosynthesis does not fully explain variation in carbon exchange.
2018 The fate of fossil fuel over the 1959–2015 CO2 record
2019 Display of climate tipping points
2020 AMOC impacts on Atlantic oceanic temperature projection
2020 AMOC strength and global mean surface air temperature
2020 Arctic sea ice projections and AMOC impacts
2020 Atmosphere temperature and zonal wind projections and AMOC impacts
2020 Cascading potential climate tipping points based on temperature outcomes
2020 Evidence of tipping points is increasing
2020 Four main tipping point characteristics may be identified for early warning signals
2020 Identification of tipping points, showing transition from stable food security conditions to a food crisis resulting from drought in Ethiopia
2020 In this model, the transition of interest is the regime shift from favorable food security conditions into a food crisis, and vice versa.
2020 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
2020 Potential climate change tipping points
2020 Surface temperature and precipitation projections and AMOC impacts
2020 The climate system is now believed to be much more sensitive to temperature change than just 20 years ago.
2021 Cascades of abrupt changes in physical–ecological–societal components of the Earth system
2021 Map of selected atmospheric, oceanographic, ecosystem and societal records with abrupt changes or tipping points in
2021 Timeline of abrupt events
2021 Tipping point examples
2021 Updated climate change tipping point
1oC - may be enough to trigger climate tipping points
3oC - tipping points may get a lot more dangerous
5 - Tipping points
A lot of economic modeling of climate change assumes there is no tipping point
And climate tipping points may be much more likely than we've thought
Better understanding potential tipping points is critical
Climate models have been unable to adequately incorporate tipping points
Permafrost feedbacks have been overlooked by the IPCC
Permafrost is a critical variable that has been generally overlooked
Potential tipping points
Subjective estimate of one "tip": 16% to 2oC 56% for more than 4oC
The Amazon could already be tipping toward a non-forest ecosystem
The existence of multiple uncertain tipping points doubles the optimal carbon tax
Threshold effects can manifest suddenly
Tipping points are the equivalent of driving into a fog without a working speedometer
Tipping points have significant implications for thinking about SCC
With some imagination can include tipping points in the analysis.
E - Planetary Boundaries
E - Anthropocene
E - Limits to Growth
2009 A Planet in Ecological Debt
2009 The new "business as usual" of extreme events
2010 There's a bunch of physical science we're worried about, but can't model well
2011 Potential non-linear tipping points
2011 The expansion of PAT since 1950 is astounding
2012 Global fisheries production 1950-2010
2013 An early assessment of tipping point probabilities
2014 Potential tipping points
2017 Climate tipping points potentially within the range of Paris Agreement outcomes
2017 Planet’s response is no longer linear
2017 Temperature vs. the likelihood of tipping points
2017 What if we meet the SDGs by 2030, and stay within planetary boundaries by 2050
2018 Biophysical boundaries crossed - by nation
2020 Impacts of human activities on natural systems over the last 10,000 years
Based on IPCC analysis in 2001, 2oC seemed like the "guardrail" threshold between acceptable and dangerous
Environmental resources
Global forcing has expanded rapidly with population
Great Acceleration in human activities began in the 1950's
Planetary Boundaries
Top 10 Hardest Hit States of 2011
We can't assume that the systems are linear
We can't assume uncertainty is modest and manageable
We have fundamentally shifted out of planetary boundaries
200X We overshot planet's carrying capacity in mid-1980's
As fossil fuels are phased out, pressures on the biosphere are likely to increase.
Extreme ideologies and polarization will accelerate global ecological decline
The planetary boundaries should be organized as a wedding cake to reflect foundational importance
The problems facing the Earth will worsen in coming decades, causing centuries of negative impacts
2017 Rockstrom_Beyond the Anthropocene
2017 Scientists are getting more alarmed about unexpected events
2017 Temperature vs. the likelihood of tipping points
2017 The ice core data is key because it tracks the development of humans
2017 We can no longer exclude destabilizing the earth system
2017 We need a "carbon law" like Moore's law - to reduce emissions by 50% per decade
2017 We're seeing some indication of the shift towards avoiding global risks, and seizing opportunities
2017 Where we are vs. where we need to be on emissions
The next 50 years will determine the next 10,000 years
We have fundamentally shifted out of planetary boundaries
Earth goes from being a friend to a foe
Incremental linear BAU is no longer an option
Need an exponential journey toward sustainability
Overwhelming evidence that we face a new nexus of global risk
Until 1990 planet's response to human activities largely linear
We started moving out of the Holocene in 1750, but didn't really notice for quite a while
2016 Schellnhuber_Why the right climate target was agreed in Paris $$
