2007 Infographic - Evolution of FSC Certified Forests

2015 Infographic - beef subsidies in Brazil

2015 Infographic - timber subsidies Indonesia

2015 Infographic palm oil subsidies in Indonesi

2015 Infographic soy subsidies in Brazil

Agricultural land use per person

Land use per 100 grams of protein

E - COP21 Forestry

E - COP26 Carbon Markets

E - Forestry Emissions

E - Land-Use MACCs

E - REDD/REDD+

E - UNFCCC Article 6 and ITMOs Offsets

Supporting Information - Natural Climate Solutions

1994 Potential for Carbon Uptake Through Agroforestry

1994 Potential for Carbon Uptake Through Forest Regeneration

1994 Potential for Slowing Deforestation to 2050

2009 Forestry emissions to 2100

2011 Advantages and disadvantages of carbon mitigation strategies

2011 Annual change in U.S. tree carbon stocks

2011 Carbon stocks and flows

2011 Carbon storage by U.S. region

2011 Current carbon stock in U.S. trees

2015 Drivers of forest loss in the tropics 2000-2010

2015 Forecasted Deforestation Emissions to 2050

2015 Forecasted forest loss business as usual

2015 Impact of Carbon Prices on Forecasted Forestry Emissions

2015 REDD Finance vs. agricultural and biofuels subsidies in Brazil and Indonesia

2015 The commodities putting forests at risk

2016 Forest NPP with temperature change

2016 Historical forest expansion compared to MCS benchmark5

2016 Role of land use in the MCS

2016 The impact of temperature on forest area is likely to vary substantially for different forest biomes

2017 Global Reforestation Potential Map

2017 NCS as fraction of needed reductions by 2030, 37% through 2030, 20% through 2050, and 9% through 2100

2017 New research points to magnitude and immediacy of natural climate solutions

2017 Top ten natural climate solutions with greatest potential to cost-effectively reduce annual GHG emissions

2018 Regional breakdown of estimated carbon emissions and uncertainties from deforestation 1990-2015

2018 There is no one-size fits all to estimating agriculture-driven deforestation

2018 Tropical forest lost 2001 to 2017

2019 Additional carbon stock (Mg CO2) retained in the forest due to the carbon payments

2019 Carbon offset accounting systems for reforestation/afforestation projects

2019 Climate change is likely to have a dramatic impact on tree cover by 2050 in many parts of the world, particularly in the tropics and far north.

2019 Global MACC curve for reforestation and avoided deforestation

2019 Simulated impacts of carbon payments based on the extension of rotation lengths in forest plantations

2019 Tree cover and forest loss in Brazil 2002 to 2018

2019 Tree cover and tropical forest loss 2000's vs. 2010's

2019 Under current climatic conditions there are large opportunities to expand tree cover across many parts of the world.

2020 NBS projects/actors in Europe

2021 A large gap remains between 2030 commitments and Paris Agreement goals

2021 Additional benefits compared to NDC-like pathway out to 2100

2021 Comparing the latest year 2100 warming projections for different scenarios

2021 Countries with the largest area of primary forest loss in 2020 (hectares)

2021 Forests as example of limited NBS finance compared to other financial flows 2010-2017

2021 Key NBS for addressing CC impacts in the forestry sector and their benefits and trade-offs

2022 Biodiversity richness score across the globe

2022 Bolivia primary forest loss between 2002 and 2021

2022 Brazil primary forest loss between 2002 and 2021

2022 Bukit Tigapuluh forest ecosystem

2022 Carbon sequestration potential for different forest vintages using above-ground biomass and carbon (Asia, South America)

2022 Case Study 1

2022 Case Study 2

2022 Case Study 3

2022 Congo Basin primary forest loss between 2002 and 2021

2022 CSSR as a function of our biodiversity metric

2022 CSSR heatmap

2022 CSSR, biodiversity score and wildfire risk exposure across global locations

2022 CSSR, biodiversity score and wildfire risk exposure across the top 10 African locations having highest biodiversity-CSSR score

2022 CSSR, biodiversity score and wildfire risk exposure across the top 10 Asian locations having highest biodiversity-CSSR score

2022 CSSR, biodiversity score and wildfire risk exposure across the top 10 South American locations having the highest biodiversity-CSSR score

2022 Deforestation in the LAJ and WMW concessions in Jambi

2022 Democratic Republic of the Congo primary forest loss between 2002 and 2021

2022 Example of one large timber company’s properties and offset project

2022 Extent of forest in the Lestari Asri Jaya and Wanamukti Wisesa concessions in January 2015

2022 Extent of forest in the Lestari Asri Jaya and Wanamukti Wisesa concessions in November 2009

2022 Forest portfolio volatility as a function of the number of randomly selected forest projects within the 0–3 years vintage bucket (Asia, South America)

2022 Forest portfolio volatility as a function of the number of randomly selected forestry vintages (Asia, South America)

2022 Global irrecoverable carbon by ecosystem type

2022 Indonesia primary forest loss between 2002 and 2021

2022 Irrecoverable carbon vs. global land area

2022 Lestari Asri Jaya and Wanamukti Wisesa in Jambi province

2022 Rubber planting in LAJ and WMW concessions in Jambi

2022 Russia tree cover loss between 2001 and 2021

2022 Top 10 countries for tropical primary forest loss in 2021

2022 Top 10 countries for tropical primary forest loss in 2021

2022 Tracking carbon changes and harvest rates in offset projects compared with other private forests

2022 Tropical primary forest loss between 2002 and 2021

2022 Wildfire risk vulnerability expressed as percentage of burned area per location per year

2023 Projected impacts of Amazon forest loss on heat stress risk

2023 Tipping cascades in the Amazon rainforest

Avoided Coastal Impacts

Avoided Forest Conversion

Avoided Grassland Conversation

Avoided Peat Impacts

Avoided Woodfuel

Biochar

Carbon credit prices Jan-Nov 2021 - Platt

Coastal restoration

Conservation Agriculture

Delegates associated with fossil fuel industries outnumbered national delegations at COP26

Fire Management

200X Global land use change GIF 1700 - 199

Grazing - Animal Management

Grazing - Optimal Intensity

Grazing – Feed

Grazing – Legumes

Improved Plantations

Improved Rice

Natural Forest Management

Nutrient Management

Peat restoration

Progress on near-term and long-term commitments

Reforestation

The distribution of CA's forestry offset projects

Trees in Croplands

"A paradigm shift has happened, " said Svenja Telle, an emerging tech analyst at PitchBook. "Before, climate finance was seen as a task without returns. It was a sinkhole. Now climate finance is seen as one of the most profitable investment strategies out there. That changes everything."

“The difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees is a death sentence for us” -- Aminath Shauna, environment, climate change and technology minister for the Maldives

“We must build connections with those who understand the urgency and the truth of our situation. The mainstream is not our ally and predatory capitalism can never provide a pathway to a stable climate.”

“We're delusional if we think we can save our climate by tweaking a system that rewards exploitation and that measures success with planet destroying increases in GDP. “

1. The #COP26 outcome reflects a deep and long-overdue change in the architecture for climate policy, led in large part by President Biden and his Climate Envoy John Kerry.

2. The new climate architecture includes, first, the acknowledgment that there is now a climate emergency that will quickly become catastrophic and unmanageable without fast mitigation, a focus on 1.5°C as the outer limit for warming, and recognition that this, the 2020s, must be the decisive decade for fast climate action.

3. The new architecture includes the importance of cutting non-CO2 climate emissions, as well as CO2, with a specific focus on #methane, a super climate pollutant responsible for nearly half of today’s warming. Cutting methane is the single biggest and fastest mitigation action the world can take to keep warming from breaching the 1.5°C guardrail.

4. Another aspect of the new architecture is a shift to sectoral agreements—a second front in the climate war, based on strategies that focus on individual sectors of the economy, inspired by the Montreal Protocol.

5. With these outcomes, veterans of COPs will see the glass as more than half full: the climate emergency now acknowledged and the path laid out for keeping the 1.5°C target alive. For young people, they’ll wonder why we’re not taking even stronger action to solve this emergency. They will surely maintain their anger and demands to hold leaders accountable. Without them, we’ll never reach a safer, more equitable future.

200+ scientists’ warning: “We, climate scientists, stress that immediate, strong, rapid, sustained and large-scale actions are necessary to hold global warming to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.”

2022 Impact of tropical forests on global temperature and species

Agnes Callamard, Amnesty Int’l Sec’y General: “If we do not put our hearts and minds into solving this existential threat to humanity, we lose everything.”

Agnes Callamard, Amnesty Int’l Sec’y General: “The UNFCCC ... has betrayed the very foundations on which the United Nations was built – a pledge first not to countries, nor states, but to the people.”

Agnes Callamard, Amnesty Int’l Sec’y General: “Their failure to commit to maintaining the global temperature rise at 1.5°C will condemn more than half a billion people, mostly in the global south, to insufficient water and hundreds of millions of people to extreme heatwaves.”

Alessandro Vitelli, IETA spokesman: "We're not coming to a shuddering halt today and tomorrow, and suddenly there's going to be no emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels. There is a process to transition that's under way, and carbon markets are the best way to make sure that transition takes place."

Andrea Meza, Costa Rica minister of environment and energy: “If we want to address the climate crisis, we need a managed but decisive phase-out of oil and gas production.”

Andrea Xieu, Mexican collective Futuros Indígenas: “Indigenous nations were not part of the negotiations despite the fact that 80% of the planet’s biodiversity survives in our territories. The problem is not only the blah, blah, blah of politicians, but the bang, bang, bang of greenwashing that will continue to destroy our lives and territories.”

Andrea Xieu, Mexican collective Futuros Indígenas: described the deal as an embarrassment that illustrated the murky influence of fossil fuel companies in Glasgow.

Anna Jones, Greenpeace UK: “What we can’t afford to have is another huge extension of those deadlines to 2030 and then not meet them. We need to be seeing a reversal now.”

Any chance of halving fast-rising emissions by 2030 – the declared aim of the talks – is now negligible.

Article 6: COP26 also finalised rules for global carbon trading. However the fossil fuel industry will be allowed to “offset” its carbon emissions

Article 6: Glasgow pact created rules to prevent double-counting of emissions credits, closed loopholes, and added stronger language make credits being traded across borders represent real reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

As a climate scientist, watching COP26 conclude without commitments to end carbon dioxide emissions was like watching a group of firefighters standing around squabbling in front of burning houses with children inside.

As regards all the most important pledges to phase out coal, reduce subsidies and protect forests, Glasgow failed.

Banks and other investors will be racing to find impactful and creditworthy businesses in which to invest climate capital. This could lead to the rapid scaling up of climate-focused businesses, and as a result a wholesale transformation of the competitive landscape in ‘green’ technologies and manufacturing.

Brandon Wu, the director of policy and campaigns at ActionAid, was highly critical of those who had vilified India for the phrasing of the agreement. Wu, like others, pointed out that the agreement had only targeted coal while avoiding mention of other fossil fuels such as natural gas and oil, which are used in abundance by the US and European countries.

But the biggest breakthrough was unexpected. On Wednesday, China and the U.S. — the world’s two largest climate polluters — said they would commit to “enhanced climate actions” to keep global warming to the limits set in the Paris agreement. Most critically, the statement included a commitment to phase down coal. And while we can’t yet quantify the impacts of this development, it presumably moves us closer to the 1.5 Celsius goal. This level of U.S.-China cooperation quickly shifted the entire COP26 narrative and outlook.

But to ask the human species to give up energy use, which is what is implied by many of the deep reduction targets in a short space of time, is distracting science fiction. These challenges are made even more difficult by having nearly 8bn mouths to feed today, with another 2bn by 2050.

By forcing Parties to “revisit” their NDCs before next year’s COP, the Pact will induce some countries to reconsider their targets and redraw their emissions pathways. And this will cascade down to business, likely pushing many organizations to accelerate their own decarbonization plans.

By laying out the “45% by 2030” emissions target in black and white, the Pact has set a clear benchmark for evaluating the credibility of businesses’ climate transition plans. Those that fail to integrate this target could find themselves the target of climate activists, investors, and even legislators.

By the end of the first week, the latest commitments from various countries for the first time appeared to offer a chance of keeping the warming of the planet below 2 degrees Celsius compared with preindustrial levels. That’s half of what we were heading toward prior to the 2015 Paris summit (COP21).

Carbon Brief estimates that these pledges and NDC updates would – if fully implemented – reduce global temperatures by around 0.1C relative to 2030 commitments in place prior to COP26.

Cautious optimism: US-China agreement to work together

China’s intervention - via India - effectively undermined COP26 President Alok Sharma’s goal to “consign coal to history.”

Claire Stockwell, Climate Analytics: “It is all very well for leaders and governments to claim that they have a net-zero target, but if they don’t have plans as to how to get there, and their 2030 targets are not aligned with net-zero, then, frankly, these net-zero targets are just paying lip service to real climate action. That’s the key reason we think Glasgow at this stage has a very big credibility gap.”

Climate finance: the pact “notes with concern that the current provision of climate finance for adaptation remains insufficient to respond to worsening climate change impacts in developing country Parties.” There is no funding target mentioned.

Coal target was watered down at the last-minute to a pledge to “phase down” rather than “phase out” coal power, but the inclusion is still significant as the first mention of coal in a COP text

Collin Rees, senior campaigner with nonprofit Oil Change Int’l: BOGA raises the bar for who can credibly claim the title of “climate leader.” “You see some of the countries with the biggest plans for extraction of fossil fuels, both currently and over the next decade, trying to claim to be climate leaders.”

Collin Rees, senior campaigner with nonprofit research group Oil Change International: “The industry is pushing to lock in this production, pushing to continue to extract oil and gas long beyond when we know that we can allow them to do that, ” he said. “That’s why this is such a big deal. This is the first time at the international level that that has been recognized — that not only do we have to address the consumption of fossil fuels, but we really do have to limit production as well.”

Collin Rees, senior campaigner with nonprofit research group Oil Change International: fossil fuel industry is trying to lock in demand by exploring for new reserves and building new infrastructure like pipelines and export terminals.

Companies were eager to show their support in Glasgow, with countless industry booths and appearances by corporate elites like Microsoft Corp. co-founder Bill Gates and BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink.

Concerns about integrity of new carbon market system: Carbon Market Watch called it a “travesty” that will dilute the positive impact.

COP26 is over. And we are now on track for global heating that exceeds 2oC. At this temperature, up to 99% of coral reefs will die. Are we comfortable with this truth.

COP26 president Alok Sharma’s apology goes to the heart of the goals of COP26, that it would deliver outcomes matching the urgent “code red” action needed

COP26 will be seen as an inflection point for global climate recovery.

Countries will have to take a detailed inventory of their greenhouse gas emissions by 2024, which will be used as the basis for future emissions cuts.

Developing countries want international climate adaptation finance to roughly double from 2019 levels to about $40 billion by 2025.

Dirk Forrister, IETA CEO: Article 6 agreement “establishes an integrity framework to support the expansion of carbon markets to help governments and businesses deliver higher climate ambitions.”

Domestic politics rather than international pressure is often the force driving climate policy. So there are no guarantees nations will deliver greater ambition in 2022.

Excessive and unrealistic expectations risk a response that says it's not worth trying. This would be a disaster. This is why the multiple supporting agreements achieved at Glasgow on methane, forestry, finance and carbon markets, were a major success. These commitments need to be delivered but together they keep us moving forward.

Frances Seymour, WRI: “It’s great that forests were given a big place on the stage at Glasgow, that they had a head of state level segment on forest ... When you look back over the past few decades of climate action, forests had been the Cinderella neglected step sister.”

Frances Seymour, WRI: “Many of us who’ve been in this business for several decades have seen this movie again and again and again, and the ending never changes. Pledges are made and then nothing happens.”

George Monbiot: And instead they’re giving us this pathetic, limp rag of a document. Demonstrating they are here not to protect life on Earth, but to protect the fossil fuel industry from challenge.

George Monbiot: The Glasgow Climate Pact, for all its restrained and diplomatic language, looks like a suicide pact. After so many squandered years of denial, distraction and delay, it’s too late for incremental change.

George Monbiot: What a total fiasco it is. This is getting very close to the last possible chance, and instead of the sweeping change which we need, like leaving all fossil fuels in the ground by 2030, not even on the table, not a prospect.

Global temperature likely to exceed 2oC under even most optimistic scenario

Global Witness found that 503 people with links to fossil fuel interests had been accredited for the climate summit.

Greta Thunberg on Twitter: “The #COP26 is over. Here’s a brief summary: Blah, blah, blah. But the real work continues outside these halls. And we will never give up, ever.”

If targets under international law, with a much more universal commitment, have not been met, what are the chances that a non-legally binding commitment (which the Glasgow Declaration is) will be?

Inger Anderson, exec dir UNEP: “It is not good to see that net-zero pledges are generally vague and untransparent; they are hard to calculate and hold to account; many kick the can beyond 2030, when we know that we need to halve our emissions between now and 2030 to be on track to limit warming to 1.5C.”

Inger Anderson, exec dir UNEP: these new near-term commitments are, “frankly, an elephant giving birth to a mouse”.

James Thornton ClientEarth CEO on overall summit issues: “Negotiations have failed to secure an agreement to end coal or ‘wind down’ the use of oil and gas. Countries in the Global South that have done little to exacerbate global warming are not seeing the $100 billion per year in climate financing that was promised previously. And serious doubt remains over whether limiting warming to 1.5C – the key metric for survival for many climate vulnerable communities – can be achieved.”

James Thornton ClientEarth CEO: “new regular reporting may help citizens compare and analyse countries’ short and long term greenhouse gas reductions plans, which will help people hold governments to account on their commitments.”

James Thornton, ClientEarth CEO on deforestation: “For it to translate into action, this commitment needs teeth. It must address how deforestation is defined and measured, set binding milestones, address financing issues, and ensure participation and protections for local communities and Indigenous peoples. To ensure countries live up to their promises, transparent and robust monitoring is essential.”

James Thornton, ClientEarth CEO on loss and damage: “Climate change is inherently unequal: its impacts – such as droughts, heatwaves flooding, and rising seas – are felt most in those countries least responsible. This is clearly a human rights issue, and robust international efforts are needed to ensure peoples’ futures are protected. When governments do not take action, litigation will increasingly be used to hold them accountable.”

James Thornton, ClientEarth CEO on loss and damage: “This year’s agreement includes establishing a facility to support technical assistance on loss and damage from climate change in developing countries. But this is far from providing financial support to compensate for loss and damage, which the coalition of least developed countries was pushing for.”

James Thornton, ClientEarth CEO on the overall summit: “The push for pre-2030 action, including a new annual high level Ministerial meeting from 2022, will further highlight governments that are delaying action. Finally, the recognition of the role of Indigenous peoples and youth in climate action is also a first and could provide momentum to legal cases that challenge governments over their failures.”

James Thornton, ClientEarth CEO: “Coal should already be consigned to history, and the agreement should have gone much further – with explicit commitments to also move away from oil and gas. Instead, we are left with a weak reference to removing ‘inefficient subsidies for fossil fuels’.

James Thornton, ClientEarth CEO: “On emissions reductions, we’re still not moving in the right direction. Promises to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement are meaningless if they do not result in emissions reductions in the short-term. Governments should establish short-term plans and targets, and back those up with strong regulation and enforcement.”

Jane Francis: The polar regions are no longer an early warning signal for climate change ... Instead, they are now a driver of climate change

Jason Box: The lack of a science-based response is alarming

Jochen Flasbarth, headed of Germany’s COP26 delegation: the joint U.S.-China agreement in Glasgow was the summit’s “high point.”

Joe Eisen, executive director of Rainforest Foundation UK: “REDD has proved to be pretty ineffective over the past 14 years, and without reviewing the reasons why it’s been ineffective, all of a sudden we’re seeing a huge upscaling through LEAF ... And there’s serious concerns about its viability and how it might incentivize state capture of land.”

John Kerry: “Not only are companies ahead of government, but companies understand that their future is tied to having a stable marketplace.”

Kelley Kizzier, VP for global climate EDF: "The agreed Article 6 rules give countries the tools they need for environmental integrity, to avoid double counting and ultimately to clear a path to get private capital flowing to developing countries.”

Kelley Kizzier, VP global climate EDF: :This COP will be remembered as the Methane Moment — the year this long-overlooked climate pollutant finally received the attention it requires.”

Kelley Kizzier, VP global climate EDF: "The decision eliminates double counting for compliance markets and establishes a strong framework to ensure appropriate accounting for voluntary carbon markets that also supports emissions reductions in countries hosting carbon market activities.”

Kelley Kizzier, VP global climate EDF: “A COP26 signal to phase out coal and fossil fuels is significant, even if weaker than ideal.”

Kelley Kizzier, VP global climate EDF: “The sum of COP26 went beyond the two weeks in Glasgow. The COP drove critical announcements long before delegates were on the ground.”

Kelley Kizzier, VP global climate EDF: “Today’s agreement on Article 6 provides the rules necessary for a robust, transparent and accountable carbon market to promote more and faster climate ambition and create a further avenue for finance flows from developed to developing countries.”

Kelley Kizzier, VP global climate EDF: The Glasgow pact “eliminates double counting for compliance markets and establishes a strong framework to ensure appropriate accounting for voluntary carbon markets that also supports emission reductions in countries hosting carbon market activities.”

Key COP26 achievements

Key topics like setting up a system to pay for damages wrought by climate change were still unsettled

Lars Koch, policy director at ActionAid Denmark re oil-producing countries and Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance: “If they don’t become members of this alliance, what they are actually saying is, ‘We don’t mean what we say about 1.5, ’” he said. “It is just pure, deep greenwashing.”

Lars Koch, policy director at ActionAir Denmark: “BOGA will need to recognize the need for wealthy, economically diversified countries to phase out oil and gas production more rapidly than others.”