Impacts at 3oC
2015 Jackson_2 or 3 Degrees CO2 Emissions and Global Temperatures
2021/4 Here’s how Australia will look if the world heats by 3°C
2021/6 G-7 Stock Markets Imply Catastrophic Global Warming of 3°C
2010/9 What would 3 degrees mean?
2015/12 Independent analysis of INDCs foresees global temperature hike of 2.7 degrees Celsius
2016/4 Refining cloud feedbacks lifts climate sensitivity to 5-5.3 degrees(!), say Yale researchers
2016/6 World still on course for dramatic 3 degrees warming, need to more than double reduction speed
2016/7 Climate sensitivity has large geographical spread: 2-3 degrees global average equals 6+ in the Arctic
2016/7 Paleoclimate tells we may have 3 degrees additional warming in pipeline at current CO2 concentration!
2017/11 The three-degree world: cities that will be drowned by global warming
2010 Emissions abatement pathways and economics
2010 Precipitation changes globally per oC
2010 Runoff changes globally per oC
Future Precipitation per degree
Future Runoff per degree - NAS Public
Projected impacts on crop yields in a 3o warmer world
Infographic - Snapshot of a Warming World
3oC - 1/3 of the global land area will exceed “deadly heat thresholds” 20 days a year
3oC - 2/3 of North American bird species are at risk of extinction
3oC - 20-year return period heat waves will be happening every years in many regions including the U.S.
3oC - 136 UNESCO World Heritage Sites put at risk
3oC - 200 million people could be affected by flooding annually, with a qudrupuling of deaths to 20,000 people per year
3oC - African generally faces a 20-50 fold increase in exposure to dangerous heat
3oC - Amazon fires smoke could be the global equivalent of a volcanic eruption
3oC - Arctic permafrost emissions could add .3 to .4 oC of warming to existing estimates
3oC - by 2050, the frequency of 100-year floods will have doubled across 40% of the globe, affecting 450 million people
3oC - by 2100, sea levels will be rising by more than they have risen during any point in human history
3oC - countries like Canada that were projected to benefit agriculturally in a 2oC world, experience yield losses
3oC - enough to melt the entire WAIS over the next 500 years
3oC - extreme heat waves currently expected 4 times a century in SE Asia will occur every other year
3oC - flood damage in the U.S. more than doubles
3oC - flooding damages rise by 1000% to more than a trillion dollars
3oC - food shortages are the highest probability cause of a societal collapse
3oC - global food production could be cut by half
3oC - hundreds of thousands of square kms in the Amazon become subject to wildfire
3oC - in CA, SLR could cost $150 billion and affect 600,000 people
3oC - invasive species like the tropical rabbitfish will do large-scale damage to kep forests as they move North
3oC - IPCC assesses a 50% chance of a meter of SLR by 2100, and a 5% chance of 1.77 meters
3oC - large parts of the world see a 500% increase in drought risk
3oC - major crops become unviable in Africa
3oC - more than 10 million people are exposed to “extreme risk” of heat stroke if working outside
3oC - more than half of insects, 44% of plants, and 20% of birds will lose more than half their climatic range
3oC - NYC could see 3 Hurricane Sandy flood events annually, which flooded 50 square miles of the city
3oC - over a billion people exceed the “workability” heat threshold
3oC - permafrost thawing could release 100 billion tons of carbon by 2100
3oC - rainfed agriculture will cease to exist in many parts of the world
3oC - subsistence farming becomes impossible in most of Africa and South Asia, affecting 1 billion people
3oC - takes us back in time about 3 million years
3oC - the average Mediterranean drought will last a decade or more
3oC - the fraction of the world population exposed to “deadly heat” will rise from 30% in a 1oC world to 53%
3oC - the massive East Antarctic ice sheet to melt over several thousand years
3oC - the water resources of a billion people are threatened
3oC - West African cities experience 145 dangerous heat days per year by the 2090’s
3oC - will generate 2-4 meters of SLR from Greenland over the next 1000 years
3oC - would cause the loss of 80% of glacier mass in many parts of the world, and 50% in Alaska
According to MIT analysis, Blueprints = 3 degrees
His analysis suggests we should shoot for 2-3 degrees of warming.
Hurricane and typhoon impacts per oC
Tipping points may get a lot more dangerous after 3 degree C
2008 NatGeo_3 Degrees Warmer: Heat Wave Fatalities
2008 NatGeo_3 Degrees Warmer: Heat Wave Fatalities
2015 Climate Change: What happens If The World Warms Up By 3°C?
3 Degree C
2016 Aaheim_Conflicts of economic interests by limiting global warming to 3 degrees C
Change in power sector required
Harris: But we’re still on track for a 3-degree warmer world, which paints a bleak future for vulnerable communities.