E - Dangerous Change

2018 Getting to 2.0oC or 1.5oC through emissions would require near-term achievement of zero emissions

2018 In the last 25 years CO2 concentrations have risen by as much as in the prior 50 years

2018 It's not at all clear that either the 2.0oC or the 1.5oC target would avoid "dangerous climate change"

2018 Solar engineering looks like the only technology that stands a chance of getting us close to 0.5oC by 2100

2018 There is a very significant gap between current trends and the 2oC or 1.5oC targets

2018 We're on track for more than 3oC of temperature change

2020 Biosphere collapse trajectory

A radiative forcing metric could help prioritize short-lived forcers

Acting on short-lived forcers offers big opportunities (although hidden by the use of 100 year GWPs)

Based on already observed climate change of ~1oC, existing targets won't avoid dangerous climate change

Based on the impacts we're already seeing, the threshold for dangerous climate change is probably ~0.5oC

CDR technologies are uncertain and unproven in their ability to significantly mitigate temperature change

Conservation and efficiency are not close to being sufficient

Current targets and aspirational targets differ significantly from BAU estimates

Global emissions have grown from 6 to 10 GTC (and have perhaps leveled)

Global temperatures are up significantly over the last 25 years, and even more over the course of the century

Governance is a big issue when it comes to geoengineering options

Several SRM options might could influence tropospheric energy balances

SRM increasingly looks like the "least bad solution"

SRM is conceptually simple

SRM options vary widely in their characteristics and challenges

Targeted geoengineering options may have potential to tackle climate change symptoms

The climate change fingerprint universally points toward disruption

The international community has agreed to avoid "dangerous climate change" 25 years ago

The low carbon transition won't happen fast enough to hit current targets, much less a 0.5oC threshold

The options going forward are all closely linked

The potential for future temperature change is large

The topic of geoengineering requires forthright discussion

The uncertainties of SRM are less than the uncertainties of proceeding without SRM

There are a number of geo-engineering options being talked about

There are major co-benefits associated with emissions reductions

There are no negative emissions technologies likely to get us to current targets, much less 0.5oC

Using CDR to tackle even 50% of emissions is a massive challenge

We need research on a number of SRM options

Without SRM we're looking at disastrous and irreversible climate change

Climate is not a wicked or super-wicked problem - it’s something even more extreme - it’s a new tragic conditions

Current transformation of energy sources discussions are really a perpetuation of the status quo - it’s not the kind of transformation we’ll need

How many people will not ultimately be willing to contribute to biocide - it will be a small minority, but it needs to come to power in tnext 20 years

Kids realize their future is something no one is looking forward to, and they are being prepared by education for a world that will not exist

People looking for hope often want to be told everything will be ok, but not everything will be ok

The book argues for climate Leninism that will ruthlessly pursue the agenda of saving life

The frame of emergency suggests that it is something that comes to an end - which doesn’t apply with climate change

The idea of an emergency makes climate change sound easier than it is

To face realitiy means to face loss of “ordinary hopes” and “magical thinking”

Tragic outcomes are inevitable - all we can hope to do is operate in the space between tragedy and catastrophe

We cannot step back from hope, but given the odds it has to be hope against hope

We have to give up hope for utopian solutions that involve simultaneously fixing all the world’s problems

We need to face how seemingly impossible the situation is

What he hopes for is the continuation of some form of viable biosphere and viable human civilization