Individual Graphics
2020 Cascading potential climate tipping points based on temperature outcomes
2020 Bolton_The Green Swan Central banking and financial stability in the age of climate change
Evaluating the Near-Term Relevance of Climate Change Tipping Points
Known and Unknown Long Tailed Climate Risks
Under-Estimating Climate Risk
E - Climate Change Tipping Points
E - Climate Response Tipping Points
E - Tipping Point Remote Sensing
Are disaster scenarios about tipping points like ‘turning off the Gulf Stream’ and release of methane from the Arctic a cause for concern?
2009 There are many high-consequence outcomes associated with different mitigation scenarios other than tipping points per se
2011 Potential non-linear tipping points
2013 An early assessment of tipping point probabilities
2013 Once you cross a tipping point, it may be very hard to go back
2014 Potential tipping points
2015 Tipping points shouldn’t be thought of in isolation. Potential large scale disruptions could interact and cascade
2016 IAMs are at the core of climate change economic analysis, but have a very hard incorporating tipping points
2017 Climate tipping points potentially within the range of Paris Agreement outcomes
2017 Planet’s response is no longer linear
2017 Some of these tipping points even within the Paris Agreement
2017 Temperature vs. the likelihood of tipping points
2017 We can no longer exclude destabilizing the earth system
2018 Earth system feedbacks lead to sinks that absorb about half of anthropogenic emissions, with the remainder contributing to atmospheric increase
2018 Net carbon exchange and photosynthesis anomalies over the satellite record for southern and northern land areas. Photosynthesis does not fully explain variation in carbon exchange.
2018 The fate of fossil fuel over the 1959–2015 CO2 record
2019 Display of climate tipping points
2020 AMOC impacts on Atlantic oceanic temperature projection
2020 AMOC strength and global mean surface air temperature
2020 Arctic sea ice projections and AMOC impacts
2020 Atmosphere temperature and zonal wind projections and AMOC impacts
2020 Cascading potential climate tipping points based on temperature outcomes
2020 Evidence of tipping points is increasing
2020 Four main tipping point characteristics may be identified for early warning signals
2020 Identification of tipping points, showing transition from stable food security conditions to a food crisis resulting from drought in Ethiopia
2020 In this model, the transition of interest is the regime shift from favorable food security conditions into a food crisis, and vice versa.
2020 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
2020 Potential climate change tipping points
2020 Surface temperature and precipitation projections and AMOC impacts
2020 The climate system is now believed to be much more sensitive to temperature change than just 20 years ago.
2021 Cascades of abrupt changes in physical–ecological–societal components of the Earth system
2021 Map of selected atmospheric, oceanographic, ecosystem and societal records with abrupt changes or tipping points in
2021 Timeline of abrupt events
2021 Tipping point examples
2021 Updated climate change tipping point
1oC - may be enough to trigger climate tipping points
3oC - tipping points may get a lot more dangerous
5 - Tipping points
A lot of economic modeling of climate change assumes there is no tipping point
And climate tipping points may be much more likely than we've thought
Better understanding potential tipping points is critical
Climate models have been unable to adequately incorporate tipping points
Permafrost feedbacks have been overlooked by the IPCC
Permafrost is a critical variable that has been generally overlooked
Potential tipping points
Subjective estimate of one "tip": 16% to 2oC 56% for more than 4oC
The Amazon could already be tipping toward a non-forest ecosystem
The existence of multiple uncertain tipping points doubles the optimal carbon tax
Threshold effects can manifest suddenly
Tipping points are the equivalent of driving into a fog without a working speedometer
Tipping points have significant implications for thinking about SCC
With some imagination can include tipping points in the analysis.
E - Systemic Climate Risk
E - Climate Impact on Returns
E - Food Security Impacts
E - Security and Climate
E - Stranded Assets - Value at Risk from Policy
2015 Australian emissions trends vs. IPCC carbon budget
2015 Australian gross revenue trajectories based on global climate responses
2015 Systemic risk in 2015 and 2035
2015 Timeline of evaluated systemic risks
2016 Mapping out the links between financial and climate fragility
2017 A comprehensive approach to social foundations and ecological boundaries
2017 Assets at potential risk of climate stranding
2017 Estimated ratio of 2099 GDP to 2010 GDP with and without climate change
2017 Number of deadly temperature days by 2100
2018 2100 Primary Energy Mix under Alternative Scenarios
2018 Growing number of extreme events and losses
2018 The growing potential for environmental migration
2019 Alternative economic models - Equilibrium vs. non-equilibrium
2019 Changes in global levelized energy costs 2010-2018
2019 How the energy transition could impact GDP based on alternative models
2019 Overview of the climate stress test framework
2019 Representative high-level scenarios for climate stress tests
2019 Sensitivity analysis for energy sector risk
2020 Atmospheric CO2 and regional emissions over 12,000 years
2020 Cascading potential climate tipping points based on temperature outcomes
2020 Chain reactions in climate impacts
2020 Climate crisis as systemic risk: evidence of economic impacts
2020 Climate crisis as systemic risk: impacts on different economic sectors
2020 Climate related risks, opportunities, and financial impacts
2020 Demand and supply shocks from climate change
2020 Evolution of energy systems in absolute and relative terms
2020 How physical and transition risks could materialize
2020 Impact of climate change on GDP
2020 More than half of syndicated lending of US banks subject to climate risk
2020 Role of Federal Reserve in addressing climate change
2020 Role of Federal Reserve in climate risk
2020 Testing business resilience to physical and transition risks
2020 The 5 C's Contribute to Coordination to Combat Climate Change
2020 The phases of transforming socio-technical systems
2020 Transition vs. physical risk balance
2020 Warming projections under emissions scenarios
2020 Weak vs. Strong Sustainability
2021 Expert assessment of systemic cascading climate risks likely to lead to economic and trade disruption
2021 Expert assessment of systemic cascading climate risks likely to lead to energy insecurity
2021 Expert assessment of systemic cascading climate risks likely to lead to food insecurity
2021 Expert assessment of systemic cascading climate risks likely to lead to greater national and international insecurity
2021 Expert assessment of systemic cascading climate risks likely to lead to health crises
2021 Expert assessment of systemic cascading climate risks likely to lead to migration pressures
2021 Summary of major systemic risk dynamics
Climate change has all the characteristics of financial systemic risk
Climate change will impact cost of living in many ways
Key research priorities on financial stablity and climate change
Potential vulnerability to climate change
Sovereign ratings directly correlated to climate vulnerability
Sovereign ratings inversely correlated to prosperity
2011 Strain will be put on international agreements to manage water, food, trade, and borders
2020 A lot of needed policies will be regressive
2020 A new international banking agency may be called for
2020 Abstract
2020 Carbon pricing won't be enough - complex policy mixes will be needed
2020 Central banks can be advocates for socioeconomic change
2020 Central banks have a role to play
2020 Central banks may have to rescue the financial system from climate risks
2020 Central banks should contribute to policy debates under the 5 C's
2020 Climate change poses challenges for monetary policy
2020 Climate risk management requires a structural transformation of our economies
2020 Climate risks will remain largely uninsurable and unheadgeable in the absence of a systemic response
2020 Consideration of climate risks by financial institutions could act as a form of shadow pricing of carbon
2020 Financial and climate stability can be seen as interconnected public goods
2020 Government action to steer markets in the right direction could create a huge market opportunity
2020 Governments should finance the low-carbon transition with public debt
2020 Green swans have similarities and differences with respect to black swans
2020 Green swans represent a colossal and potentially irreversible risk of staggering complexity
2020 It is not clear how big a difference greening banks' collateral frameworks would make
2020 Reigniting growth via low-carbon investments more sustainability than other approaches to growth
2020 Responding to climate change faces an "epistemological obstacle"
2020 Risk assessment can quantitatively or qualitatively use Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions
2020 Scenario analysis is only a partial solution to the challenge
2020 Several ways are being used to assess indirect climate risk exposures
2020 Several ways are being used to to assess the adaptive capacity of firms in a sector
2020 The climate stress test used by Netherlands Bank
2020 The financial sector could be faced by a "climate Minsky moment"
2020 There are risks to public low-carbon investment strategies
2020 Thinking of central banks as main agents in a transition is risky
2020 Today's economic models can't predict the impacts of climate change
2020 Traditional risk assessment models prevent appreciation of future systemic risk
2020 We should think of future uncertainty via multiple plausible futures, not probabilities
A look at UK risks concluded indirect risks an order of magnitude greater than direct domestic impacts
A number of risks accompany ice loss
Commissioned CNA to do a 2015 scenarios exercise
Concluding Comments - biggest challenge is interactions of risks
Current examples of how existing climate change may have influenced security outcomes
Risk Assessment Part 3 - Systemic Risks
Some of the major impacts
Uncertainty over scarce resources could significantly increase instability
We have tended to look at climate risks too narrowly
2020 Bolton_The Green Swan Central banking and financial stability in the age of climate change
2017 A comprehensive approach to social foundations and ecological boundaries
2017 Assets at potential risk of climate stranding
2017 Number of deadly temperature days by 2100
2018 2100 Primary Energy Mix under Alternative Scenarios
2018 Growing number of extreme events and losses
2018 The growing potential for environmental migration
2019 Alternative economic models - Equilibrium vs. non-equilibrium
2019 Changes in global levelized energy costs 2010-2018
2019 How the energy transition could impact GDP based on alternative models
2019 Overview of the climate stress test framework
2019 Representative high-level scenarios for climate stress tests
2019 Sensitivity analysis for energy sector risk
2020 Atmospheric CO2 and regional emissions over 12,000 years
2020 Cascading potential climate tipping points based on temperature outcomes
2020 Chain reactions in climate impacts
2020 Climate related risks, opportunities, and financial impacts
2020 Demand and supply shocks from climate change
2020 Evolution of energy systems in absolute and relative terms
2020 How physical and transition risks could materialize
2020 Testing business resilience to physical and transition risks
2020 The 5 C's Contribute to Coordination to Combat Climate Change
2020 The phases of transforming socio-technical systems
2020 Transition vs. physical risk balance
2020 Warming projections under emissions scenarios
2020 Weak vs. Strong Sustainability
2020 A lot of needed policies will be regressive
2020 A new international banking agency may be called for
2020 Abstract
2020 Carbon pricing won't be enough - complex policy mixes will be needed
2020 Central banks can be advocates for socioeconomic change
2020 Central banks have a role to play
2020 Central banks may have to rescue the financial system from climate risks
2020 Central banks should contribute to policy debates under the 5 C's
2020 Climate change poses challenges for monetary policy
2020 Climate risk management requires a structural transformation of our economies
2020 Climate risks will remain largely uninsurable and unheadgeable in the absence of a systemic response
2020 Consideration of climate risks by financial institutions could act as a form of shadow pricing of carbon
2020 Financial and climate stability can be seen as interconnected public goods
2020 Government action to steer markets in the right direction could create a huge market opportunity
2020 Governments should finance the low-carbon transition with public debt
2020 Green swans have similarities and differences with respect to black swans
2020 Green swans represent a colossal and potentially irreversible risk of staggering complexity
2020 It is not clear how big a difference greening banks' collateral frameworks would make
2020 Reigniting growth via low-carbon investments more sustainability than other approaches to growth
2020 Responding to climate change faces an "epistemological obstacle"
2020 Risk assessment can quantitatively or qualitatively use Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions
2020 Scenario analysis is only a partial solution to the challenge
2020 Several ways are being used to assess indirect climate risk exposures
2020 Several ways are being used to to assess the adaptive capacity of firms in a sector
2020 The climate stress test used by Netherlands Bank
2020 The financial sector could be faced by a "climate Minsky moment"
2020 There are risks to public low-carbon investment strategies
2020 Thinking of central banks as main agents in a transition is risky
2020 Today's economic models can't predict the impacts of climate change
2020 Traditional risk assessment models prevent appreciation of future systemic risk
2020 We should think of future uncertainty via multiple plausible futures, not probabilities
I:VisualizingTippingPoints
