The Climate Web | E - Comparing/Evaluating Low Carbon Studies

E - Comparing/Evaluating Low Carbon Studies

2014 Feasibility of alternative scenarios

2016 This study vs. other studies

How 24 100% renewable energy scenarios scored

Overview of technology scenarios considered

Sectoral emissions under 450 ppm fulltech vs no CCS scenarios

The Deep Decarbonization literature in the U.S.

Low Carbon Transition TOC

E - Low Carbon Transition Knowledgebase

How important are the uncertainties in LCT analysis?

2018/2 Funding the Fight Against Climate Change

I:AcceleratingTechnologyInnovation

I:AcceleratingTechnologyDiffusion

I:BarrierstoLowCarbonTransition

I:Blockchain

I:BoundingCarbonPrices

I:CarbonPricingfor2oC

I:CarbonPricinginScenarioPlanning

I:CarbonRemovalSolutions

I:EmissionsReductionsinScenarioPlanning

I:EvaluatingLowCarbonProgress

I:GamesGamification

I:ImplicationsofDelayingLCT

I:LandUseSolutions/Technologies

I:LowCarbonInvesting

I:LowCarbonTransitionEconomics

I:LowCarbonTransitionEmissionsPathways

I:LowCarbonTransitionPolicy

I:LowCarbonTransitionWinnersLosers

I:NETNegativeEmissionsTechnologies

I:OceanSolutions/Technologies

I:ProjectDrawdown

I:SolutionasBusinessAction

I:SolutionasRenewableEnergy

I:SyntheticDirectAirCaptureandStorage SDACCS

I:WartimeMobilization

S - Low Carbon Transition Barriers

S - 2 Degree Target

S - 100% Renewable Energy Transition

S - 350 ppm Pathway

S - 2100 Pathways

S - Business Positioning and Advocacy on Climate Action

S - Carbon Pricing Futures

S - CCS Critiques

S - ESG Impact Investing

S - Evaluating Transition Pathways and Progress

S - GHG Emissions Futures

S - Green Bonds

S - Investing for Green Growth

S - Investing Opportunities in Climate Solutions

S - Investor Climate Policy Advocacy

S - Low Carbon Action Plans

S - Low Carbon Investment and Financing

S - Low Carbon Policy

S - Low Carbon Transition General

S - Low Carbon Transition Planning

S - Low Carbon Transition Sources - Topical

S - Negative Emissions

S - Sectoral Pathways and Implications

S - Solutions Technologies

S - State and National Pathways

S - Tech Innovation

S - Technology Futures

S - to 2050s Pathways

N - Evaluating Low Carbon Transition Progress

N - 100% Renewable Future

N - Barriers to Low Carbon Transition

N - CCS Carbon Capture and Storage

N - Low Carbon Transition - Topical

N - Low Carbon Transition Underway

T - Low Carbon Transition Networks

T - Project Drawdown

V - Low Carbon Transition

E - 100% Renewable Transition

E - CCS and CCUS

E - Drivers of Low Carbon Transition

E - Electrification of the Energy System

E - Emissions Pathways

E - LCT Barriers

E - LCT Pathways

E - Low Carbon Investing

E - Low Carbon Transition Barriers

E - Low Carbon Transition Costs

E - Low Carbon Transition Methodologies

E - Low Carbon Transition Policy

E - Low Carbon Transition Recommendations

E - Low Carbon Winners and Losers

E - Private Sector Role in LCT

E - Speed of Technology Diffusion

E - Systemic Climate Risk

E - Temperature Scenarios and Forecasts

1.5oC - 2oC Comparing the implications

4oC - The estimated range of sea level rise impacts

87% of emissions from sectors in the Scale or Deploy stage

2007 Anticipated emissions from forests to 2100

2007 What's Different? No Silver Bullets

2008 Consumers are not changing their behavior

2008 In scenarios oil consumption peaks around 2020, gas 2025

2008 Sustainable level of emissions suggests a 90% drop in U.S. emissions

2008 Technology costs have declined rapidly

2008 We have historically over-estimated the costs of acting

2009 2050 Energy production by scenarios

2009 Annex 1 and non Annex 1 pathways for 4 degrees

2009 Snapshot of world GHG emissions by sector, 2000

2010 Implementing the three strategies

2010 Per capita emissions vs. what is "sustainable" for 2oC

2011 Energy sector employment under 2% investment initiatve

2011 Scenario land use vs. other scenario

2012 Evolution of transport sector technologies now to 2030

2012 The key metrics for 2050 reductions

2012 Transitions in energy use patterns 1850-2010

2013 Forecasting global baseline CO2 emissions

2014 Assumed reference case in RCP8.5 range

2014 Global proportion of low-carbon energy

2014 Projected emissions in 2030

2014 Rate of growth of wind and solar

2014 Wind deployment way up

2015 13. Emissions would fall dramatically

2015 Business as usual emission to 2040

2015 Emissions by source and sector

2015 Emissions pathways with overlaid risk time horizons

2015 Fluorinated gases emissions to 2050

2015 Many scenarios for reaching 80-100% renewables

2016 1.5 to 4.5 degrees C by 2100 with high degree of confidence

2016 A rapid growth in infrastructure initiatives

2016 Annual land use gain/loss 1990 - 2015

2016 Electricity demand from EVs will soar

2016 Historical forest expansion compared to MCS benchmark5

2016 Increase in resource use to 2025 and 2040

2016 Net electricity generation to 2050

2016 What outcomes are infrastructure initiatives focused on

2017 1 Million Additional Jobs by 2050

2017 2017 Average annual change in investment vs. fuel expenditures to 2050

2017 A different view of the future

2017 A More Detailed Look at the 9 Regions

2017 A radically different view of the future

2017 Carbon prices vs SCC estimates around the world

2017 Coal consumption vs. Peabody share price

2017 Electric car diffusion

2017 Implications of delaying the peak in global emissions

2017 Increasing oil use efficiency

2017 Models are assuming a lot of negative emissions

2017 NCS as fraction of needed reductions by 2030, 37% through 2030, 20% through 2050, and 9% through 2100

2017 Summarizing the Pathways

2017 Total installed capacity as multiple of peak demand

2017 Traditional oil forecasts

2020 100% Solar, Wind, and Batteries is Just the Beginning

2020 100% Solar, Wind, and Batteries is Possible

2020 100% Solar, Wind, and Batteries is the Cheapest System by 2030

2020 Emissions reductions by sector required to meet 2oC target

2021 8 technologies can generate 90% reductions by 2035

2021 Eight global supply chains account for more than 50% of annual greenhouse gas emissions

2021 Price markup for products with net zero supply chains

2021 Sector disruptions will allow ecological restoration

2021 The cost of abating emissions by supply chain

2021 Understanding disruption

2021 Updated climate change tipping point

Defining an energy transition

Emissions mitigation by sector - Sensible Scenarios

Fossil fuels will remain dominant in every scenario

Four steps would help align all the infrastructure initiatives

How infrastructure initiatives target barriers to

RethinkX Accelerated Disruption Scenario

RethinkX Core Disruption Scenario

RethinkX Delayed Disruption Scenario

RethinkX model - active reforestation by biome

RethinkX model - emissions mitigation by sub-sector - 1

RethinkX model - emissions mitigation by sub-sector - 2

RethinkX model - emissions mitigation by sub-sector - 3

RethinkX model - emissions mitigation by sub-sector - 4

RethinkX model - passive reforestation by biome

Sector reductions to 2035 by readiness stage - Sensible Scenario

Sectoral reductions by 2035 - Sensible Scenario

The causal feedback loop of disruption

The disruption of energy to date

The disruption of transportation to date

The pending disruption of the food sector

Total emissions under 4 political constrain scenarios

Welfare gain under 4 political constrain scenarios

Welfare under four political constraint scenarios

Which match up with flexibility needs in different ways

Analysis is intended to be very conservative

Causal feedback loops drive disruption

Conventional thinking has failed us - underestimating climate change and proposing band-aids

Executive Summary

Full decarbonization would lead to an increase of no more than 4% in end consumer prices

Key features

Main findings in the report

Misconceptions of conventional analysis

Prepare for crash deployment of low carbon technologies

RethinkX has been more accurate than conventional analysts

Societal choices matter in promoting net zero emissions

The three stages of technology readiness

We can achieve net zero before 2040 and save trillions of dollars

We tend to underestimate the pace of change when it happens

We’ve done a poor job of forecasting disruption to date

Headings - Extracted Materials

E - Comparing/Evaluating Low Carbon Studies

Extracted Graphics | Extracted Ideas