We are over-confident in predicting the future
Q - Forecasting the Future
Climate Change Unknown Unknowns - MESD
Civilization depends on the biosphere
Doing our best is not enough
How many companies might still be around with "premortems?"
How many wars might have been avoided if we'd considered losing
Our collective mind changes more slowly than our technology
Postmortems suffer from hindsight bias
Predicting the future is really hard
The first way "premortems" can help avert disasters
The second way premortems can help avert disasters
This time, if it fails, we all fail together
Those who claim to foreseee the future are lying
To avoid disasters, think about them
We confuse the improbable with the unfamiliar
We insist on assuming that the future will look like the present
We need to imagine widely divergent futures
What we anticipate seldom occurs
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We are over-confident in predicting the future
Climate-Relevant Quotes
Known and Unknown Long Tailed Climate Risks
Under-Estimating Climate Risk