1. Where is the heat going?

The great majority of added energy goes into upper oceans

2007 Mindmap - The science of global warming

2008 How much sensitivity matters

2008 The current bathtub

2009 At what temperature will we stabilize?

2009 Key facts on key GHGs

2009 Snapshot of world GHG emissions by sector, 2000

2009 The right observational timescale for understanding climate change?

2010 An alternative view of temperature vs. cumulative emissions

2010 CO2 and CH4 in the Ice Cores and Today

2010 Correlating CO2 and Temperature in the Vostok Record

2010 Modeled sensitivity per 1000 GTs emissions

2010 The 100,000 Year Cycles in the Vostok Cores

2010 The Vostok Temperature Record

2010 Timescale for removing CO2 from the atmosphere

2011 Estimates of climate sensitivity have varied widely

2011 Probability distributions of climate sensitivity

2011 Scientific perception of risk across the board

2011 The timeline for CO2 removals from the atmosphere

2011 Uncertainty in climate sensitivity

2011 Why is the warming so slow to manifest itself?

2013 It takes a long time for CO2 levels to come back down

2014 Estimated Equilibrium climate sensitivity

2014 Implications of climate sensitivity

2014 Transient climate response

2014 Where Climate Sensitivity Estimates Come From

2015/12 Timeline of Global Change Science

2016 650,000 years of CO2 concentrations

2016 Weather Channel_CO2 concentrations

2017 1950 was the turning point for CO2

A tale of CO2 and three planets in our solar system

a. Human development and climate

a. The planetary energy equation

Articles written about climate change

b. The greenhouse effect

Carbon flows in the global carbon cycle

Change in radiative forcing to 2100

Climate change is driving up global heat content

CO2 is only a trace component of the atmosphere

Contribution of individual GHGs to radiative forcing

Estimated positive feedbacks not routinely incorporated into climate estimates

Estimating planetary temperatures based on greenhouse effects

Fossil fuel reserves and potential contribution to CO2

Global carbon cycle 2007 - 2016

Global forcing has expanded rapidly with population

Google Images Page - Global Carbon Cycle

Graphic - How big a change are we talking about?

Graphic - Where's the heat going?

How sensitive a greenhouse?

IPCC Likelihood that observed change is anthropogenic

Residence times of different gases in the atmosphere

Short Term Impacts of Natural Climate Variations - NAS Public

The global carbon cycle

The global carbon cycle

The implications of climate sensitivity

The timelines of weather and climate forecasting

This is what cycles do - but that's not what's happening

We understand greenhouse gases - molecules

What's warming the world? - 2

What's warming the world? - 3

What's warming the world? - 4

What's warming the world? - 5

What's warming the world? - 6

What's warming the world? - 7

2007 Estimates of climate sensitivity vary widely

2007 The long tail of climate sensitivity

2008 How much sensitivity matters

2009 Risk of temperature directly related to concentrations, and varies widely over time

2010 Modeled sensitivity per 1000 GTs emissions

2010 Relating emissions trajectories to near-term and long-term warming

2011 Estimates of climate sensitivity have varied widely

2011 Probability distributions of climate sensitivity

2011 The tail of scientific uncertainty is longer than we thought

2011 Uncertainty - Climate sensitivity

2011 Uncertainty in climate sensitivity

2014 Estimated Equilibrium climate sensitivity

2014 Implications of climate sensitivity

2014 Transient climate response

2014 Where Climate Sensitivity Estimates Come From

A wide range of climate sensitivity estimates

Feedbacks with what impact?

Sea Level Rise SLR

Taylor: We just don't know a lot of key things about climate change. It all depends on the planetary sensitivity

The IPCC considers a wide range of values

1. Where is the heat going?

2015/1 Infographic: The Anti-Science Climate Denier Caucus, 114th Congress Edition

Infographic - A review of major milestones in climate science and policy

Infographic - Climate Change Scientific Consensus

Infographic - Climate Change Today

Infographic - Fossil fuels in a historical timeline

Infographic - IPCC Climate Everyones Business

Infographic - The Carbon Budget

Infographic - The-big-questions-of-climate-change

Infographic - Why global carbon emissions fell in 2014

Infographic 2013 Climate by the Numbers

E - Carbon Budget

E - Carbon Cycle

E - Climate Change Fingerprint

E - Climate Feedbacks

E - Climate History

E - Climate Modeling and Forecasting

E - Climate Uncertainty

E - Dangerous Change

E - Doubting Climate Science Knowledgebase

E - GHG Emissions Scenarios/Forecasts

E - Impact Attribution

E - Past and Future Emissions

E - Science Education

E - Topic History

Are disaster scenarios about tipping points like ‘turning off the Gulf Stream’ and release of methane from the Arctic a cause for concern?

2015 IPCC_Infographics Working Group 1

The great majority of added energy goes into upper oceans

2019/X How we know that global warming is real

2007 Mindmap - The science of global warming

2008 How much sensitivity matters

2008 The current bathtub

2009 At what temperature will we stabilize?

2009 Key facts on key GHGs

2009 Snapshot of world GHG emissions by sector, 2000

2009 The right observational timescale for understanding climate change?

2010 An alternative view of temperature vs. cumulative emissions

2010 CO2 and CH4 in the Ice Cores and Today

2010 Correlating CO2 and Temperature in the Vostok Record

2010 Modeled sensitivity per 1000 GTs emissions

2010 The 100,000 Year Cycles in the Vostok Cores

2010 The Vostok Temperature Record

2010 Timescale for removing CO2 from the atmosphere

2011 Estimates of climate sensitivity have varied widely

2011 Probability distributions of climate sensitivity

2011 Scientific perception of risk across the board

2011 The timeline for CO2 removals from the atmosphere

2011 Uncertainty in climate sensitivity

2011 Why is the warming so slow to manifest itself?

2013 It takes a long time for CO2 levels to come back down

2014 Estimated Equilibrium climate sensitivity

2014 Implications of climate sensitivity

2014 Transient climate response

2014 Where Climate Sensitivity Estimates Come From

2015/12 Timeline of Global Change Science

2015 Timescales of climate processes and inclusion of feedbacks in climate models

2016 650,000 years of CO2 concentrations

2016 Weather Channel_CO2 concentrations

2017 1950 was the turning point for CO2

2020 Temperature record over last 65 million years

2021 Only 0.17 Percent of Peer-Reviewed Papers Question Global Warming

A tale of CO2 and three planets in our solar system

a. Human development and climate

a. The planetary energy equation

Articles written about climate change

b. The greenhouse effect

Carbon flows in the global carbon cycle

Change in radiative forcing to 2100

Climate change is driving up global heat content

CO2 concentrations are much lower today than in the past

CO2 is only a trace component of the atmosphere

Contribution of individual GHGs to radiative forcing

Estimated positive feedbacks not routinely incorporated into climate estimates

Estimating planetary temperatures based on greenhouse effects

Explaining the climate record with volcanoes and solar spots.

Fossil fuel reserves and potential contribution to CO2

Global carbon cycle 2007 - 2016

Global forcing has expanded rapidly with population

Google Images Page - Global Carbon Cycle

Graphic - How big a change are we talking about?

Graphic - Where's the heat going?

gw 10

How sensitive a greenhouse?

IPCC Likelihood that observed change is anthropogenic

No expert disagrees with fact that anthropogenic emissions are rising and impacting the atmosphere

Residence times of different gases in the atmosphere

Scienstists who established the basis for climate change

Short Term Impacts of Natural Climate Variations - NAS Public

Significant climate influences 1850-2018

SPM1. Total GHG Emissions by Gases

SPM2. GHG emissions by sectors

SPM3. Where Were Changes in CO2 Coming From By Decade

SPM4. GHG Emissions Pathways for AR5 Scenarios

SPM5. GHG Emissions Pathways to 2030

SPM6. Impact of climate policy on air pollution

SPM7. Direct Emissions by Scenario and w/ w/o CCS

SPM8. Demand Reduction and Low-Carbon Energy Shares

SPM9. Changes in Annual Investment Flows

The current GWP of GHGs

The global carbon cycle

The global carbon cycle

The implications of climate sensitivity

The timelines of weather and climate forecasting

This is what cycles do - but that's not what's happening

We understand greenhouse gases - molecules

What's warming the world? - 2

What's warming the world? - 3

What's warming the world? - 4

What's warming the world? - 5

What's warming the world? - 6

What's warming the world? - 7

2. Humble Human Influences

A lot of great EU graphics re climate change

Against the right scale (K) the sensitivity of the atmosphere makes more sense

Black carbon

Changing CO2 concentrations have increased the capture of energy in the atmosphere by less than 1%

Energy in the climate system is expressed as w/m2

Fossil fuel burning was identified as a risk long ago

Modest human impacts on climate can be analogized to slight changes in diet

Scientists have called for dramatic reductions - but no such policy in place

Since human impacts amounts to 1% of global energy flow, everything else has to be understood very well

There is no such thing about scientific certainty in the way it's commonly used

What are some of the risky what-ifs?

What do we know for sure regarding climate change?

What don't we know for sure regarding climate change?

E - 1.5 Degree Target

E - 1 Degree 350 ppm Scenario

E - 2 Degree 450 PPM Pathway

E - 3-4 Degree Scenario

200X Cumulative CO2 emissions and temperature change under AR5 scenarios

200X If unrestrained climate change, what would it really mean?

2009 At what temperature will we stabilize?

2009 Characterizing the IPCC scenarios

2009 Potential climate change feedback loops

2009 Risk of temperature directly related to concentrations, and varies widely over time

2009 Summary of IPCC stabilization scenarios

2009 Temperatures Will Rise - Australia as an Example

2010 Relating emissions trajectories to near-term and long-term warming

2011 Aggregated climate change index shows future change relative to current variability

2011 The 4 climate security scenarios to be planning for

2011 Very good chance we're already committed to >2 degrees C

2011 Why is the warming so slow to manifest itself?

2012 Probabilistic Forecasts to 2100 based on new Representative Concentration Pathways

2012 Showing North American Detail

2012 There's huge uncertainty about really long-term outcomes

2013 Emissions are currently on a 4-6 degree C trajectory

2013 There is a lot of uncertainty re future scenarios

2014/8 Future Temperature and Precipitation Change in Colorado

2014 Average summer temperatures across the U.S.

2014 Average winter temperatures

2014 Global temperature projections different and timelines

2014 Number of extreme cold days

2014 U.S. average temperature projections

2015/5 Longer dry spells in store for U.S. Great Plains

2015 BAU vs. INDCs vs. 2 degrees

2016 1.5 to 4.5 degrees C by 2100 with high degree of confidence

2016 Box plots for temperature change and CO2 concentrations

2016 Current emissions scenarios and temperatures

2016 Potential temperature increase associated with consuming proven fossil fuels

2016 Temperature trend associated with scenarios

2017 Cumulative emissions and warming to 2100 - multiple GHGs

2017 Forecasting Oregon's hottest days to 2069

2017 Probability density function for warming in 2050 and 2100

2017 Projected global mean temperature change and incremental temperature change

2017 The IPCC scenarios for temperature change

2017 Warming probabilities based on feedback uncertainties

2018 Comparing Shell's scenarios in terms of global temperature

2018 Temperature impacts of forestry interventions under the Sky Scenario

2018 The scenario probability distribution

2019 Visualizing average global temperature change 2040-2060

2021 Predictions for near surface temperature anomalies 2021 - 2025

2021 Projected changes in average annual temperatures across the US associated with warming of 2oC and 4oC

2021 Referent - Surface Temperature w/UQ

2021 Two future temperature scenarios which companies might consider

2030-2050 (2020) Regional increase in average annual temperature

2050-2100 (2012) Projected increase 20-year return values of annual maximum daily temperatures

2100 (2012) Expected change in regional extreme temperatures (degrees and SDs)

2100 (2012) Expected regional temperature change (degrees and SDs)

2100 (2012) Percentage of expected to exceed 3, 4, and 5 SDs from current temperatures

2100 100 Degree days in U.S. Under 2 Emissions Scenarios

A 2100 snapshot of climate change for Maryland

AR4 Emissions scenarios and temperature change

Assessment Box SPM.1 Figure 1

Average warming under IPCC Scenarios - NAS Public

Changing U.S. frequency of 1 in 20 year events by 2099

CO2 Levels: Current & Historic Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Comparing different scenario types SRES and RCP

Comparing mitigation, non-mitigation, and full stop scenarios to 2100

Comparing SRES and RCP scenarios - carbon emissions

Comparing the temperature projections of different scenarios to 2100

Cumulative global emissions vs. temperature change

Days Above 95 degrees by 2100

Days over 110 degrees in Phoenix by 2100

Decreases in number of frost days per year

Emissions and Temperature Linkage - NAS Public

Emissions vs. temperature for IPCC scenarios to 2100

Emissions vs. temperature to 2100 for IPCC RCP 2.6

Estimated positive feedbacks not routinely incorporated into climate estimates

Figure SPM.4b

Figure SPM.4c

Forecast atmospheric vs. ocean temperature change to 2100

Forecast global temperatures to 2200 by time period

Forecast temperature change by scenario and timeframe to 2100

Forecasted US temp changes

Global average temperature change under differing scenarios

Global mean temperature rise across the three scenarios

Global temperature forecasting

Historical and projected temperature distribution for the U.S.

How different models forecast temperature change to 2100

Key IPCC scenario variables to 2300

Linking global emissions to temperatures - various models

Long term implications of current emissions scenarios

Long-term temperature imlications of IPCC scenarios

Longer Great Plains dry spells by 2100

Maps

New simulations for projected temperature in the U.S.

Patterns of warming in Summer and Winter - NAS Public

Potential global temperature rise by 2026

Probabilities

Projected global temperature change

Projected temperature change of hottest and coldest days

Projected U.S. temperature change

Projecting the ratio of temperature records to 2100

Putting current temperatures in context

Range of possible temperature responses globally to 2100

Regional temperature and precipitation probabilities based on RCP3 and RCP8.5

Regional temperature forecast range

Relating emissions pathway to temperature probabilities

Temperature forecasts comparing IPCC SRES and RCP scenarios

Temperature increases of 10-12 degrees C by 2300

Temperature ranges for IPCC scenarios by 2099

The geographic ratio of local to global temperature change

The implications of climate sensitivity

The IPCC scenarios used in the TAR and FAR

The scenarios used in the NCA:vs. the new IPCC Scenarios

Three paths for responding to climate change

Variability across model runs

Various temperature shifts to 2100 under the IPCC 8.5 scenario

Why black swans are likely

2010-2100 Regional Warming under 3 scenarios

Probability of temperature exceedance curves in 2100 for current IPCC scenarios - there is a lot of uncertainty

0oC - 3.5oC heating degree days impacts in the U.S.

0oC - 4oC crop yield impacts

1900-2100 (2010) Changes in permafrost coverage to 2100

2010 % of summers warmer than today's 95th percentile, based on 3oC from pre-industrial

2010 1 Meter of Sea Level Rise on the Gulf Coast

2010 Ability of ocean organizations to calcify, related to stabilized CO2 concentrations

2010 An alternative view of temperature vs. cumulative emissions

2010 CO2 and HFC emissions to 2050

2010 Cumulative and projected carbon emissions to 2050

2010 Direct climate impacts, and associated human/ecological impacts

2010 Economics of climate change in Chicago by 2070-2099

2010 Modeled sensitivity per 1000 GTs emissions

2010 Potential distances species will have to cover to stay at the same temperature

2010 Relating emissions trajectories to near-term and long-term warming

2010 Relating sea level rise to storm return time for NYC

2010 The Greenland ice sheet under alternative long-term scenarios

2010 Timescale for removing CO2 from the atmosphere

Centigrade vs. Fahrenheit

Per degree changes in precipitation globally

Per degree impacts on hurricane and typhoon intensity

Per degree relative change in runoff globally