E - Futures and Foresight Top Level
I:BlackSwansofClimateChange
2014 CISL_IPCC AR5 - Carbon crossroads and the pathway to two degrees - Infographic
Climate change infographic reveals the four scenarios awaiting humanity
Infographic - Perspective on Time
Infographic - Timeline of the far future
Infographic The Coral Triangle
Infographic world-energy-supply-1971--2030_50290afe017d2
Infographic: Choose your future 4 emissions pathways
Resource stress – Future State 2030
E - 2020 - 2030 Low Carbon Pathways
E - Carbon Price Forecasts
E - Climate Modeling and Forecasting
E - Emissions Scenarios 2030
E - Forecasted Climate Impacts
E - Worst Case Climate Change
Building developers and purchasers should commit to only building ZEBs no later than 2030 10, 275
Building developers and purchasers should commit to only building ZEBs no later than 2030 10, 275
Federal agencies should implement requirement in EISA that federal buildings reduce fossil fuel use measured against 2003 benchmark by 100% by 2030, and the goal that new commercial buildings achieve zero net energy by 2030. 10, 272
GSA should fully implement EISA requirement that federal buildings reduce fossil fuel use measured against a 2003 benchmark by 100% by 2030, and meet goal that new commercial buildings achieve zero net energy by 2030. 10, 272
4. IEA BAU scenario - rapid rise in fuel use to 2030
2000-2060 (2016) Change in coastal population exposure by country
2006 Status quo projections of fossil fuel use to 2030
2007 2030 Mitigation potentials at <$100/ton
2007 Anticipated coal use by 2030
2007 Cost effective building emissions reductions in 2030
2007 Finding 30 GT of mitigation potentials by 2030 in the 6 key sectors
2007 Projected industry emissions to 2030
2008 Economic mitigation potential by sector in 2030
2009 Integrated implementation scenarios 2010 - 2030
2010 Abatement potential by sector and region to 2030
2010 Forecasted share of EVs to 2030
2010 Global MACC curve - beyond BAU - 2030
2011 Black carbon emissions to 2030 reference case
2011 Delayed climate policy could cost $8 trillion by 2030
2011 Giving developing countries until 2030 to peak suggests zero industrialized emissions
2011 Methane emissions to 2030 reference case
2011 Premature deaths avoided in 2030 due to black carbon control
2011 Reduction potentials for black carbon to 2030
2011 Reduction potentials for methane to 2030
2011 What it means for energy is 90%+ by 2030!
2012 Change in distribution of global GDP
2012 Change in water scarcity to 2030
2012 Coal consumption to 2030
2012 Evolution of energy sector technologies now to 2030
2012 Evolution of transport sector technologies now to 2030
2012 Our ability to predict the future is poor
2012 Reduced deforestation MACC in 2030
2012 Reductions wedges 2030 and 2050 by technology
2013 By 2030 Non-Annex 1 emissions will by themselves exceed the 2oC pathway
2013 Cost of electricity by source in 2030
2013 The result is to act strenuously to avoid the tipping point.
2014 And by region by 2030
2014 CA 2030 electric sector emission reductions
2014 CO2 emissions reductions by sector in 2030
2014 Contribution of individual countries to a doubling of global renewables share
2014 Country shares in a global doubling of renewables share by 2030
2014 Global renewable energy by technology and sector, 2010 and 2030
2014 Global supply curve for primary biomass, 2030
2014 Increase in average annual coastal storm damage due to higher seas in 2030
2014 Installed capacity by resource to 2030
2014 Installed global RE generation capacity to 2030
2014 Jobs impacts of REmap 2030
2014 Projected emissions in 2030
2014 Projected installed generation capacity in 2030
2014 Ranges of technology substitution costs
2014 Stepping stones toward a doubling of renewable energy
2014 Subsidy requirements by RE technology to 2030
2014 Technology cost curves for renewable energy to 2030
2014 The form pledges could take for 2030
2014 The goal? Doubling share of renewable energy by 2030
2014 The relative role of energy efficiency and new renewables in 2030 renewable share
2015 Global probability of exceeding 99th extremes with temperature increase
2015 Graphical representation of worst-case scenarios for 2016 and 2026 (1)
2016 1 billion people will lack electricity in 2030
2016 4 carbon pricing scenarios for 2030
2016 2030 resource and emissions flows under international trading
2016 A fall in fossil fuel share to 2030
2016 BAML_A Call to Action Climate Change Solutions Primer World renewables share to 2030
2016 Estimates of CPP CO2 costs in 2030 - various studies
2016 Needed versus planned global infrastructure spending to 2030
2017 Cost of shifting demand - today and in 2030
2017 Middle class expansion to 2030
2017 NCS as fraction of needed reductions by 2030, 37% through 2030, 20% through 2050, and 9% through 2100
2017 NCS mitigation potentials in 2030 - GT per year
2017 What if we meet the SDGs by 2030, and stay within planetary boundaries by 2050
2018 Coal declines rapidly after 2030
2019 How much could increased R&D reduce technology costs in 2030?
2022 Global power generation through 2050
2030 (2017) Climate change could raise extreme poverty significantly
2030 (2020) Vulnerability of global infrastructure assets
2030-2050 - Change in surface water supply
2030-2050 (2020) # of countries with GDP at risk from reduced effective working hours
2030-2050 (2020) GDP at risk from impact on effective working hours
2030-2050 (2020) Increase in 50-year precipitation events
2030-2050 (2020) Lethal heat wave probabilities in India
2030-2050 (2020) Lethal heat wave probability
2030-2050 (2020) Probability of drought across Africa
2030-2050 (2020) Probability of drought in Meditteranean
2030-2050 (2020) Regional increase in average annual temperature
2030-2050 (2020) Risk of >15% global yield failure increases 2x and 5x
2030-2050 Change in global drought likelihood
2030-2100 (1995) Probability density for Antarctic contribution to SLR
A lot more maritime reductions available by 2030
additional investment in efficiency, renewables, biofuels, nuclear, CCS could total $3 to 5 Trillion by 2030
Anticipated new additions to 2030
Anticipated retirements to 2030
Asset growth vs. climate change as drivers of 2030 damage
BP Energy Outlook 2030 implies at least 4oC
Business-as-usual scenario on worldwide resource extraction, 2005 to 2030
By 2030 6 and 12 inches (mean, possible)
By 2030 may see a doubling of extreme drought frequency
Climate change health impacts in 2030, 750 ppm
Commodity price impacts to 2030 by scenario
Conflict scenario 2020-2030
Costs savings in 2030 with international carbon markets
Cumulative global infrastructure investments 2015-2030
Cumulative losses to 2030 of 370 Billion could rebuild New Orleans six times over
EIA and EPA coal forecasts to 2030
Estimated GDP impacts of weather in 2030, today's climate vs. high change
Forecasted installations to 2030 by energy source
Global middle class expected to grow 172% by 2030
h. Note that the Commodity Index has shifted dramatically
How extreme events rapidly get more extreme
How much climate change damage can be averted by adaptation 2030
IKEA position on EU 2030 package (infograph)
Is there only one possible future?
Key question is, in hindsight should we have seen it coming?
Low Carbon Future illustration for the Sierra Club of BC.
National electricity sales under the CPP to 2030
New Orleans could be an island by 2100
Nightime global view 2030
Overall CC costs in 2030 compared to baseline
Overall projections to 2030
Policy actions to accelerate renewable energy deployment
Projected that will grow to $2 trillion by 2030
Reduction in freshwater lens a key impact, even by 2030
Relative probability of extremes compared to pre-industrial
2007? Richard Muller graphic
RPJMN - Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah (five-year Medium-term Development Plan of the Indonesian Government 2010 – 2014 or until 2030)
Scenario 2 - Storm in a Teacup
Scenario timeline - Protectionist World
Scenario Timeline - Efficiency First
Scenario Timeline - Environmental War Economy
Scenario Timeline - Redefining Progress
Scenario Timeline - Service Transformation
Security Outlook 2030 - Three scenarios
Significant increases in water demand in some countries 2005–2030
Sources of increase in water demand to 2030
SPM5. GHG Emissions Pathways to 2030
Strong probability of water scarcity in 2030
Summary of high-risk impacts regionally to 2030
Tectonic Shifts Between Now and 2030
The urban proportion of population 2010 vs. 2030
Total generation to 2030 by energy source
U.S. climate variables in 2030 relative to 1990
Urban mitigation potentials in 2030 and 2050
Water risk ratings for 2030 climate change scenario - Sydney
"The goal is to focus resources on the estoration of 350 million hectares of degraded land between now and 2030, which the UN believes will restore $9 trillion in ecosystem services and absorb an additional 13-26 gigatons of greenhouse gases."
735: To do a true Delphi, need to have it framed in terms of % and dates, rather than yes/no will 50% of homes have PV by 2030
2011/6 Oxfam Predicts Climate Change will Help Double Food Prices by 2030: “We Are Turning Abundance into Scarcity”
2020-2050 (2020) Increase in long tail risk of hurricane damages in Florida
2030 - 2050 (2020) Anticipated temperature change across Africa
Bird - We'll be retiring a lot of coal by 2030. In dialogue with the states for the Clean Power Plan.
Emissions likely to follow a medium to high pathway under BAU
FSU research projects sea level rise in the range of 0.23–0.29 feet by 2030, 0.83–1.13 feet by 2080
IPCC estimated positive and negative changes in crop yields to 2100
Key technology questions for future emissions levels
Likelihood that Sacramento and Rio Grande rivers fall below critical flow levels
Scenario 2020 - 2030 - Efficiency regulations, regulatory tightening
The risk message is oriented to 2030 - "my daughter will be my age in 2030" People can get that
Things That Will Never Happen
US 11 billion (net) - reducing CO2 70% by 2030
Works out to ~$80/ton in 2030
No more concurrent uploads are allowed - wait until at least one has finished.
2012 NIC_GlobalTrends 2030
Under-Estimating Climate Risk
What Are the Key Climate Change Wildcards?