2014 CISL_IPCC AR5 - Carbon crossroads and the pathway to two degrees - Infographic

Climate change infographic reveals the four scenarios awaiting humanity

Infographic - Perspective on Time

Infographic - Timeline of the far future

Infographic The Coral Triangle

Infographic: Choose your future 4 emissions pathways

Resource stress – Future State 2030

E - Carbon Price Forecasts

E - Climate Modeling and Forecasting

E - Economic Forecasting

E - Forecasted Climate Impacts

E - Forecasting How To

E - Future Scenarios

E - Limits to Growth

E - Long-Term Thinking

E - Scenario Planning

E - Super-Forecasting

E - Worst Case Climate Change

2012 Our ability to predict the future is poor

2013 The result is to act strenuously to avoid the tipping point.

2015 Global probability of exceeding 99th extremes with temperature increase

2015 Graphical representation of worst-case scenarios for 2016 and 2026 (1)

h. Note that the Commodity Index has shifted dramatically

How extreme events rapidly get more extreme

Is there only one possible future?

Key question is, in hindsight should we have seen it coming?

Low Carbon Future illustration for the Sierra Club of BC.

Natural Disasters

New Orleans could be an island by 2100

Relative probability of extremes compared to pre-industrial

2007? Richard Muller graphic

Scenario timeline - Protectionist World

Scenario Timeline - Efficiency First

Scenario Timeline - Environmental War Economy

Scenario Timeline - Redefining Progress

Scenario Timeline - Service Transformation

Technological change

Tectonic Shifts Between Now and 2030

The urban proportion of population 2010 vs. 2030

Trend Blend 2007

Trend Blend 2008

Emissions likely to follow a medium to high pathway under BAU

Key technology questions for future emissions levels

Things That Will Never Happen

Natural Disasters

Infographic world-energy-supply-1971--2030_50290afe017d2

Resource stress – Future State 2030

E - 2020 - 2030 Low Carbon Pathways

E - Emissions Scenarios 2030

E - Renewables in 2030

Building developers and purchasers should commit to only building ZEBs no later than 2030 10, 275

Building developers and purchasers should commit to only building ZEBs no later than 2030 10, 275

Federal agencies should implement requirement in EISA that federal buildings reduce fossil fuel use measured against 2003 benchmark by 100% by 2030, and the goal that new commercial buildings achieve zero net energy by 2030. 10, 272

GSA should fully implement EISA requirement that federal buildings reduce fossil fuel use measured against a 2003 benchmark by 100% by 2030, and meet goal that new commercial buildings achieve zero net energy by 2030. 10, 272

4. IEA BAU scenario - rapid rise in fuel use to 2030

2000-2060 (2016) Change in coastal population exposure by country

2006 Status quo projections of fossil fuel use to 2030

2007 2030 Mitigation potentials at <$100/ton

2007 Anticipated coal use by 2030

2007 Cost effective building emissions reductions in 2030

2007 Finding 30 GT of mitigation potentials by 2030 in the 6 key sectors

2007 Projected industry emissions to 2030

2008 Economic mitigation potential by sector in 2030

2009 Global MACC to 2030

2009 Integrated implementation scenarios 2010 - 2030

2010 Abatement potential by sector and region to 2030

2010 Forecasted share of EVs to 2030

2010 Global MACC curve - beyond BAU - 2030

2011 Black carbon emissions to 2030 reference case

2011 Delayed climate policy could cost $8 trillion by 2030

2011 Giving developing countries until 2030 to peak suggests zero industrialized emissions

2011 Methane emissions to 2030 reference case

2011 Premature deaths avoided in 2030 due to black carbon control

2011 Reduction potentials for black carbon to 2030

2011 Reduction potentials for methane to 2030

2011 What it means for energy is 90%+ by 2030!

2012 Change in distribution of global GDP

2012 Change in water scarcity to 2030

2012 Coal consumption to 2030

2012 Evolution of energy sector technologies now to 2030

2012 Evolution of transport sector technologies now to 2030

2012 Reduced deforestation MACC in 2030

2012 Reductions wedges 2030 and 2050 by technology

2012 UK MACC to 2030

2013 By 2030 Non-Annex 1 emissions will by themselves exceed the 2oC pathway

2013 Cost of electricity by source in 2030

2014 And by region by 2030

2014 CA 2030 electric sector emission reductions

2014 CO2 emissions reductions by sector in 2030

2014 Contribution of individual countries to a doubling of global renewables share

2014 Country shares in a global doubling of renewables share by 2030

2014 Global renewable energy by technology and sector, 2010 and 2030

2014 Global supply curve for primary biomass, 2030

2014 Increase in average annual coastal storm damage due to higher seas in 2030

2014 Installed capacity by resource to 2030

2014 Installed global RE generation capacity to 2030

2014 Jobs impacts of REmap 2030

2014 Projected emissions in 2030

2014 Projected installed generation capacity in 2030

2014 Ranges of technology substitution costs

2014 Stepping stones toward a doubling of renewable energy

2014 Subsidy requirements by RE technology to 2030

2014 Technology cost curves for renewable energy to 2030

2014 The form pledges could take for 2030

2014 The goal? Doubling share of renewable energy by 2030

2014 The relative role of energy efficiency and new renewables in 2030 renewable share

2016 1 billion people will lack electricity in 2030

2016 4 carbon pricing scenarios for 2030

2016 2030 resource and emissions flows under international trading

2016 A fall in fossil fuel share to 2030

2016 BAML_A Call to Action Climate Change Solutions Primer World renewables share to 2030

2016 Estimates of CPP CO2 costs in 2030 - various studies

2016 Needed versus planned global infrastructure spending to 2030

2017 Cost of shifting demand - today and in 2030

2017 Middle class expansion to 2030

2017 NCS as fraction of needed reductions by 2030, 37% through 2030, 20% through 2050, and 9% through 2100

2017 NCS mitigation potentials in 2030 - GT per year

2017 What if we meet the SDGs by 2030, and stay within planetary boundaries by 2050

2018 Coal declines rapidly after 2030

2019 How much could increased R&D reduce technology costs in 2030?

2030 (2017) Climate change could raise extreme poverty significantly

2030 (2020) Vulnerability of global infrastructure assets

2030-2050 - Change in surface water supply

2030-2050 (2020) # of countries with GDP at risk from reduced effective working hours

2030-2050 (2020) GDP at risk from impact on effective working hours

2030-2050 (2020) Increase in 50-year precipitation events

2030-2050 (2020) Lethal heat wave probabilities in India

2030-2050 (2020) Lethal heat wave probability

2030-2050 (2020) Probability of drought across Africa

2030-2050 (2020) Probability of drought in Meditteranean

2030-2050 (2020) Regional increase in average annual temperature

2030-2050 (2020) Risk of >15% global yield failure increases 2x and 5x

2030-2050 Change in global drought likelihood

2030-2100 (1995) Probability density for Antarctic contribution to SLR

A lot more maritime reductions available by 2030

additional investment in efficiency, renewables, biofuels, nuclear, CCS could total $3 to 5 Trillion by 2030

And a lot more in 2030

Anticipated new additions to 2030

Anticipated retirements to 2030

Asset growth vs. climate change as drivers of 2030 damage

BP Energy Outlook 2030 implies at least 4oC

Business-as-usual scenario on worldwide resource extraction, 2005 to 2030

By 2030 6 and 12 inches (mean, possible)

By 2030 may see a doubling of extreme drought frequency

Climate change health impacts in 2030, 750 ppm

Commodity price impacts to 2030 by scenario

Conflict scenario 2020-2030

Costs savings in 2030 with international carbon markets

Cumulative global infrastructure investments 2015-2030

Cumulative losses to 2030 of 370 Billion could rebuild New Orleans six times over

EIA and EPA coal forecasts to 2030

Estimated GDP impacts of weather in 2030, today's climate vs. high change

Forecasted installations to 2030 by energy source

Global middle class expected to grow 172% by 2030

How much climate change damage can be averted by adaptation 2030

IKEA position on EU 2030 package (infograph)

National electricity sales under the CPP to 2030

Nightime global view 2030

Overall CC costs in 2030 compared to baseline

Overall projections to 2030

Policy actions to accelerate renewable energy deployment

Projected that will grow to $2 trillion by 2030

Reduction in freshwater lens a key impact, even by 2030

RPJMN - Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah (five-year Medium-term Development Plan of the Indonesian Government 2010 – 2014 or until 2030)

Scenario 1 - Chai Time

Scenario 2 - Storm in a Teacup

Scenario 3 - Green leaf

Scenario 4 - Rebrewed

Scenario timeline - Protectionist World

Scenario Timeline - Efficiency First

Scenario Timeline - Environmental War Economy

Scenario Timeline - Redefining Progress

Scenario Timeline - Service Transformation

Security Outlook 2030 - Three scenarios

Significant increases in water demand in some countries 2005–2030

Slide11

Slide14

Slide15

Slide16

Slide19

Slide21

Slide36

Sources of increase in water demand to 2030

SPM5. GHG Emissions Pathways to 2030

Strong probability of water scarcity in 2030

Summary of high-risk impacts regionally to 2030

Technological change

Tectonic Shifts Between Now and 2030

The urban proportion of population 2010 vs. 2030

The water gap in 2030

Total generation to 2030 by energy source

U.S. climate variables in 2030 relative to 1990

Urban mitigation potentials in 2030 and 2050

Water risk ratings for 2030 climate change scenario - Sydney

"The goal is to focus resources on the estoration of 350 million hectares of degraded land between now and 2030, which the UN believes will restore $9 trillion in ecosystem services and absorb an additional 13-26 gigatons of greenhouse gases."

735: To do a true Delphi, need to have it framed in terms of % and dates, rather than yes/no will 50% of homes have PV by 2030

2011/6 Oxfam Predicts Climate Change will Help Double Food Prices by 2030: “We Are Turning Abundance into Scarcity”

2020-2050 (2020) Increase in long tail risk of hurricane damages in Florida

2030 - 2050 (2020) Anticipated temperature change across Africa

Bird - We'll be retiring a lot of coal by 2030. In dialogue with the states for the Clean Power Plan.

FSU research projects sea level rise in the range of 0.23–0.29 feet by 2030, 0.83–1.13 feet by 2080

IPCC estimated positive and negative changes in crop yields to 2100

Likelihood that Sacramento and Rio Grande rivers fall below critical flow levels

Scenario 2020 - 2030 - Efficiency regulations, regulatory tightening

The risk message is oriented to 2030 - "my daughter will be my age in 2030" People can get that

US 11 billion (net) - reducing CO2 70% by 2030

Works out to ~$80/ton in 2030