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Carbon Pricing TOC
I:BusinessCarbonPricingAdvocacy
I:CapandTrade
I:CarbonOffsetPrices
I:CarbonOffsetsandCarbonPricing
I:CarbonPriceCorridor
I:CarbonPriceForecasting
I:CarbonPricingandEmissionsReductions
I:CarbonPricingandTechnologyInnovation
I:CarbonPricingHistoryandTrends
I:CarbonPricingImpacts
I:CarbonPricingPoliticalFeasibility
I:CarbonPricingviaCarbonMarkets
I:CarbonPricingwithComplementaryPolicies
I:CarbonTaxation
I:ClimateExactions
I:ConsumptionBasedCarbonPricing
I:CurrentDamagesasCarbonPrice
I:EvaluatingBCsCarbonTax
I:EvaluatingCarbonPricing
I:ImplicitCarbonPricing
I:InternalCarbonPricing
I:InternationaTargetsasCarbonPriceBased
I:PolicyasCarbonPricing
I:RCCRiskCostofCarbonasCarbonPrice
I:SCCasCarbonPrice
I:SVMASocialValueofMitigationAction
I:TargetBasedCarbonPricing
I:UseofCarbonRevenues
S - Carbon Markets
S - Carbon Price Forecasts
S - Carbon Pricing Futures
S - Carbon Pricing History and Trends
S - Carbon Pricing in the Electricity Sector
S - Carbon Pricing Policy as Business Risk
S - Carbon Pricing Sources
S - Carbon Pricing System Design
S - Evaluating Carbon Pricing
S - Impacts of Pricing Carbon
S - Internal Corporate Carbon Pricing
S - National and Global Carbon Pricing
S - SCC Social Cost of Carbon Sources - Topical
S - State and Local Carbon Pricing
S - Taxing Carbon
S - Why and How of Pricing Carbon
N - Carbon Price Forecasting
N - Carbon Pricing Advocacy
N - Carbon Pricing Impacts
N - Carbon Pricing News - Topical
N - Carbon Pricing Trends
N - Evaluating Carbon Pricing
N - Internal Carbon Pricing - Business and Other
N - SCC News - Topical
N - State Carbon Pricing
N - Taxing Carbon
V - Carbon Pricing
E - Business Carbon Pricing Advocacy
E - Cap and Trade Performance
E - Carbon Price Design
E - Carbon pricing politics
E - Carbon Pricing Coverage
E - Carbon Pricing History and Trends
E - Carbon Pricing Impacts
E - Carbon Pricing Required for Emissions Targets
E - Carbon Pricing Scenarios and Forecasts
E - Carbon Taxation
E - Case for Carbon Pricing
E - Company-Specific Carbon Pricing
E - Evaluating Carbon Pricing
E - Implict Carbon Price of Policies and Measures
E - Internal Business Carbon Pricing
E - Negotiating a Global Carbon Price
T - Carbon Pricing Individuals
T - Carbon Pricing Networks
I:CarbonPricinginScenarioPlanning
E - Carbon Pricing Knowledgebases
2013 CDP_Use of internal carbon price by companies
Carbon Pricing for Paris Agreement
Carbon Pricing in Brief
Carbon Pricing Intro
Carbon Pricing Rules of Thumb
Implicit Carbon Pricing
Scoping Out the Topic of Carbon Pricing
Summing Up the Options for Carbon Pricing
E - Business Carbon Pricing Advocacy
E - Cap and Trade Performance
E - Carbon Price Design
E - Carbon pricing politics
E - Carbon Pricing Coverage
E - Carbon Pricing History and Trends
E - Carbon Pricing Impacts
E - Carbon Pricing Required for Emissions Targets
E - Carbon Pricing Revenues and Use
E - Carbon Pricing Scenarios and Forecasts
E - Carbon Taxation
E - Case for Carbon Pricing
E - Company-Specific Carbon Pricing
E - Efficient Optimal Carbon Pricing
E - Evaluating Carbon Pricing
E - Implict Carbon Price of Policies and Measures
E - Internal Business Carbon Pricing
E - Negotiating a Global Carbon Price
E - SCC as Carbon Price
E - Sectoral Carbon Pricing and Pathways
E - Shadow Pricing
2007 Carbon Prices Will be Important in Determining Which Clean Technologies Are Viable
2008 Emissions scenarios for aluminum production to 2050
2009 $20/ton Carbon = 15-30% Rise in Electricity Rates
2009 Carbon regulation would reshuffle the aluminum industry's cost curve
2009 The progression of carbon pricing
2009 When will natural gas actually displace coal?
2010 Fig 5. Tail risk vs. carbon tax
2010 Fig 6
2010 Final analysis - SCC values at alternative discounts, and 95% percentile
2010 GDP Impacts of up to 4 C Change for Multiple Models
2010 GDP Impacts of up to 10 C Change For Multiple Models
2010 Industry winners and losers after inclusion of carbon prices
2010 Probability density of GDP under model runs with $0, $50, and $500 carbon prices
2010 Regret analysis for alternative carbon taxes
2010 Welfare probabilities shown against $50 and $500 carbon taxes
2010 Winners and losers in a U.S. carbon market
2012 Carbon price forecasts for different utilities
2012 Price forecasts for different pieces of legislation
2012 Synapse price forecast
2013 Carbon price required to limit change to 2.5 degrees
2013 Estimated effective carbon prices in the electricity sector
2013 Estimated effective carbon prices in the road transport sector
2013 Existing, Emerging and Potential emissions trading programs
2013 Impact of a $25/ton carbon price on household expenditures
2013 SCC models are commonly characterized by a continued growth trajectory, regardless of climate change
2013 What do all of the 2010 IAMs estimate at a 3% discount rate
2013 World Bank tabulation of carbon prices
2014 150 major corporations - 29 in US, have an internal carbon price
2014 200 Companies Are Engaging Policy-makers to Support Carbon-pricing Legislation
2014 500 companies globally report they are regulated by global carbon markets
2014 Global GDP has been closely tied to fossil fuel use
2014 Impact of carbon pricing on electricity outages
2014 Installed generation mix based on different carbon prices
2014 Levelized costs of energy with a 50E carbon price
2014 Map page 1
2014 Map page 2
2014 Using a realistic payment probability shows the significant different between expected carbon price and expected carbon payment
2015 4. Other ways to get to same objective, e.g. $30/ton carbon tax
2015 Attributes of carbon fee vs. shadow price
2015 Carbon prices used by 19 companies disclosing price
2015 Companies using internal carbon prices
2015 Consumer Discretionary
2015 Consumer Staples
2015 Darwinism Curve with ($4) minimal carbon pricing
2015 Darwinism Curve with $25 adn $50/ton carbon pricing
2015 Emissions reductions associated with efficient carbon pricing
2015 Energy
2015 Financials
2015 Global 500 advocacy on carbon pricing
2015 Global coverage is increasing quickly
2015 Health Care
2015 How are companies engaging on government carbon pricing
2015 How shadow prices drive decision-making
2015 Implications of a $100/ton carbon price
2015 Industrials
2015 Information Technology
2015 Internal carbon prices vary significantly based on whether a "fee" or a "shadow price"
2015 Internal carbon pricing various sectors are using
2015 Internal voluntary carbon prices by sector
2015 Materials
2015 Most Common Benefits and Challenges
2015 Other ways to get to same objective, e.g. $30/ton carbon tax
2015 Overview of existing and emerging carbon pricing instruments
2015 Prices of existing carbon pricing instruments
2015 Recommended pricing reporting guidance
2015 Selected companies with a carbon price
2015 Solar and wind costs translated into $/ton CO2
2015 Telecommunications
2015 The non-climate benefits and costs of CO2
2015 Utilities
2016 1,249 companies are pricing or planning to price carbon
2016 4 carbon pricing scenarios for 2030
2016 37 companies reported a direct link between carbon pricing and tangible change
2016 94% of analysts don't focus on earnings after 5 years
2016 Agent-based models show more realistically abatement potentials and costs
2016 Although a reliability-based shadow price gives very different results
2016 Auction results for RGGI and California
2016 Box plots for economic damages and social cost of carbon
2016 Carbon price and emissions coverage across the board
2016 Carbon pricing initiatives, with sectoral and GHG coverage
2016 Carbon taxation vs. emissions trading
2016 CER, ERU and voluntary offset issuance and prices to date
2016 Chronology of compliance carbon instruments
2016 Compliance based carbon pricing instruments
2016 Current carbon pricing coverage
2016 Examples of utility price forecasts
2016 Exxon's proposed internal carbon price trajectory
2016 Figure 1 - impact of material carbon price
2016 Growth in number of carbon pricing initiatives
2016 Horizontal vs. vertical perspective on carbon pricing
2016 Horizontal vs. vertical perspective on carbon pricing
2016 How abatement costs are often thought of
2016 Impact of policy distortions on apparent abatement cost
2016 Impact of policy distortions on apparent abatement cost
2016 Impact of WAIS collapse by 2200 modest in terms of suggested SCC
2016 Impact of WAIS collapse by 2200 modest in terms of suggested SCC
2016 Internal carbon prices vs offset prices
2016 Internal carbon pricing
2016 Mandatory vs. internal carbon prices for several jurisdictions
2016 Mapping GHG productivity along value chains
2016 Mapping GHG productivity along value chains
2016 Oil production costs vary widely
2016 Oil production costs vary widely
2016 Overview of carbon pricing by the numbers
2016 Overview of carbon pricing by the numbers
2016 Position of companies on introducing carbon pricing
2016 Position of companies on introducing carbon pricing
2016 Potential price impact of global carbon price after revenue recycling
2016 Prices in existing carbon pricing initiatives
2016 Sectoral responses to carbon pricing survey
2016 Summary of carbon pricing initiatives
2016 There is no demand for long-term analysis (19)
2017 10 year and 35 year results
2017 35 year sensitivity
2017 Carbon price corridor for the power sector
2017 Carbon pricing corridor compared to other pathways to a 2oC scenario
2017 Carbon pricing could cover costs of universal access to basic services
2017 Carbon pricing scenarios for switching to coal with CCS or Nuclear
2017 Carbon revenue recycling can benefit poor
2017 Carbon revenues could significantly expand social assistance
2017 Estimated marginal abatement costs under the IEA 2oC scenario
2017 Expected cost of carbon
2017 Heat maps - sensitivity of asset classes to climate risk factors
2017 OPTrust TRIP Expsoures
2017 Risk factors illustrated relatively by scenario
2017 Sensitivity to TRIP risk factors by OPTrust greatest over short term
2017 Share of global emissions under a carbon price
2017 Snapshot of the status of carbon pricing
2018 Companies using carbon pricing or preparing to
2018 Recent trends in carbon pricing
2018 The carbon pricing gap for OECD and G20 Countries
2021 Calculated components of the price of carbon facing Norwegian motorists as of 2019
2021 IPR carbon price policy forecast
2021 Voluntary carbon credit prices and demand 2019 by project type
2021 Voluntary carbon credit prices and demand 2019 by vintage
Additional design considerations - 1
Attributes of carbon fee pricing
Attributes of carbon shadow pricing
Australian Carbon Prices and Food Prices
Availability of nuclear option greatly complicates adoption of wind
Average abatement cost in 2016 for multiple ETS
Calculated "marginal" benefit cost ratio for 2011
Carbon price impact stress-testing approach
2013 Carbon price required to achieve EU targets varies widely
2017 Carbon Price scenario analysis to meet 2 degree target
Carbon Pricing by Country
Carbon Pricing Coverage by Country
Carbon taxes around the world
Cheap energy is important for less poverty and better health
CO2 content and tax rates for fossil fuels at $49/ton CO2
CO2 Values used by utilities in resource planning
Coal keeps electricity prices down
Comparison of relevant signposts within physical climate scenarios
Design and Implementation steps for a carbon market
2010 Economic implications of alternative carbon tax levels
Equity holds of financial actors, top 15 funds, and top 15 banks
European company carbon prices
FASTER principles for successful carbon pricing
First and second round bank equity losses
Forward looking benefit cost ratios
Framework for evaluating ETS performance (1)
Framework for evaluating ETS performance (2)
GDP will continue to rise rapidly
How Carbon Translates To Energy Prices
How the Corridors can be used
2017 IAM generated carbon pricing to achieve the 2oC target
Impact of Carbon Pricing
Impact of delaying action for 10 years
Impacts of Australia's carbon tax
Impacts of BC's carbon tax
Income implications of $49 carbon tax with revenue recycling options
Income implications of $49 carbon tax without revenue recycling
Integrated implementation scenarios 2010 - 2030
Internal carbon pricing in North America - 1
Linking real assets to financial portfolios (9)
Low carbon impact smart beta portfolio
2017 Making wind competitive against coal requires very different regional carbon pricing
2014 Nationally efficient CO2 prices - selected emitters 2010
Norway's carbon tax experience
Number of companies planning to price carbon up 23% from 2015
Objectives of the report
One can project the "CO2 Yield for Crops in the Future
Overall assessment of ETS regime performance
Portfolio impacts at 10 years
Portfolio impacts at 10 years
Portfolio impacts at 10 years
Prices Based on Atmospheric Stabilization
Prices Based on Political Reality
Prices Based on Stalemate
Reclassified NACE sectors to climate-policy-relevant sectors
Relative price increases based on carbon tax scenarios
Relative sector impact on PBT by 2020
Revised 2013 Social Cost of CO2, 2010-2050 ($2007)
Risks are long-term, investment focus short-term
Setting a corporate price on carbon
Six principal design choices in pricing carbon
Subtracting out benefits of energy from non-fossil fuel sources
Summary of carbon tax survey results
Tax, net revenue, and emissions under a carbon tax (main case)
Tax, net revenue, and emissions under a carbon tax (rapid technology progress)
Testing 2D alignment for real assets
Testing the alignment of real assets with a 2D target (4)
The 2oC Framework
The 2oC portfolio approach
The benefit cost ratio for CO2 is huge
The social cost of carbon emissions
The study concluded that policy and technology change in risk, but impacts almost irrelevant
Transition scenarios - IEA outlook to 2040
Translating a 2oC scenario into a 2oC benchmark - 1
Utility scenarios for carbon prices vary widely
Visualizing Carbon Pricing GIF to 2017
Voluntary vs. mandatory ways to respond to scenario challenges
2011 Infographic - Carbon price - key figures (Australia)
Infographic - Carbon Pricing in Canada
Brownstein, Mark S. - Environmental Defense
1. Fairness - equitable distribution of benefits and costs
1 in 5 CDP respondents reported planning to price carbon
2. Alignment of Policies and Objectives - Alignment is good
3 sources of uncertainty in forecasting emissions
3. Stability and Predictability - Predictability is good
4. Transparency - Transparency is good
5. Efficiency and Cost-Effectiveness - Efficiency is good
6. Reliability and Environmental Integrity - Environmental impact is good
84% of survey respondents held lax policy beliefs
437 companies report an internal carbon price in 2015 up from 150 in 2014
726: Expects ARB to bring in more offsets to keep allowance prices down. What's the acceptable price? 25-30?
731: Cap and Dividend can't possibly win at the polls
731: Even if Republicans say they like a revenue-neutral carbon tax, the support won't make it to the election
731: Even Oregon, the greenest state in the U.S., couldn't pass a Cap and Dividend ballot measure
731: The only chance for Cap and Dividend would be a state without ballot initiatives
731: Voters basically say that if you're not going to return the money, you should be spending it on "good things."
875: Actually easier to sell to some Republicans than some Democrats
875: CCL from 182 letters to editor in 2011 to over 1000 this year. Starting to get a lot of editorial in favor of a carbon tax
875: Doubling every four years. Optimistic, but if had to be would bet against success
875: Just nutty to think offsets can work
875: Politicians don't create political will. They respond to it. We can change political environmental and outcomes
875: Thinks that when price of carbon rises, seeing a check every month is the approach for maintaining support
875: Would eliminate ALL energy subsidies
1000+ companies do or will price carbon emissions
1968 - First discussion of market-based caps and tradable allowances
1990's - First carbon pricing instruments in Scandinavia
2006 - First program in the U.S. (California) to enact an economy-wide carbon target
2008 The potential impacts of carbon regulations on energy sources is very uncertain
2012 What are the ranges of carbon prices used by other utilities?
2013 29 Companies Disclose an Internal Carbon Price
2013 Abatement achieved with individual instruments addressing electricity generation
2013 Impact of a $25/ton carbon price on fossil fuels
2013 The problem of self-interest, showing the impacts of a $25/ton tax on production costs.
2015 Why do it?
2016 A true climate dividend plan plays well with the public
2020-2030: Carbon pricing must exceed $400/ton by mid-century
A carbon charge would produce revenues for years to come
A climate dividend could help tackle inequality
A climate dividend plan could offer a grand bargain
A climate dividends plan tackle's Kaheman's loss aversion theory
A firm and credible ceiling price
A harmonized carbon price has a built-in self-enforcing mechanism that counters free riding
A harmonzed carbon price does create a countervailing force
A huge range in carbon taxation and economic coverage
A hybrid carbon price mechanism has advantages
A lack of public participation in carbon markets is the "missing link"
A ratchet mechanism is likely to lead to reduced ambition
A variety of carbon pricing case studies provided, but generally not possible to interpret
AB 32 Compliance Snapshot
AB32 Allowance budget vs actual emissions
AB32 auction revenue distribution
AB32 Coverage Snapshot
AB32 Impacts
AB32 Offset Sectors
Abengoa
Abstract
Abstract
Abstract
Additional design considerations - 2
AEP - "we factor a cost"
AEP - Uses unspecified price in IRP process to capture future regulatory risk
Alberta's tradable carbon performance standard
All tons of CO2 should be priced equally
Alongside the PAL price the US SCC appears the only credible pricing alternative
Ameren $30 in 2025
An an international cap and trade system is hard to figure out
An emissions cap establishes no countervailing force
An escalating carbon tax would pack a real punch
An Executive Order could require carbon proxy pricing
Any quantity-based target is doomed by free-rider issues
Apache -
Arguments like Naomi Klein's are exactly the wrong arguments to avoid triggering loss aversion
As governments take real action, carbon prices could rise
Author's hypothesis that practitioners in 2005-6 saw many ways to avoid paying CO2 price
Average voluntary market prices should rise to $20-50/tCO2e by 2030
Avoid the distraction of debating the internal carbon price
Based on models that reflect emissions uncertainty, carbon taxes outperform tradeable permits
BC's carbon tax
Ben & Jerry's
Border tax adjustments
Bottom line is that carbon taxes can be useful, but at politically feasible levels impacts have been modest
BP
Braskem
British Columbia's carbon tax proves two things
But climate ambition and perceived narrow self-interest are contradictory
But costs of too aggressive mitigation efforts could be worse than the problem
CA emissions trends to 2013
Cap and trade did not lead to a common carbon price - far from it
Cap and trade should have passed, but didn't. Cap and dividend can't pass
037 Cap-and-trade while has not proven to be substantial driver of investment in new clean energy projects
Carbon markets catalyzed large scale funding into climate-smart development
Carbon price paths
Carbon price signals need to be credible and predictable
Carbon prices intended to change behavior have to stand out from the noise
Carbon pricing corridors will help bring certainty to accelerating emissions reduction efforts
Carbon pricing leading to abatement does impose costs - abatement costs money
Carbon pricing mechanisms could soon reach almost 50% of global emissions
Carbon Pricing Corridors can help manage climate risks
Carbon Pricing Corridors Initiative provides a benchmark for business and investors
Carbon tax is up to $132 in 2017
Carbon taxation is the obvious answer, but advocates have yet to find a winning policy and political formula
Carbon Trust Offset Portfolio
CDP questionnaire guidance
Cemex
Christine Todd Whitman - Renewables and other investments all look more attractive with a carbon price
Clothing
CMS Energy
Colorado PUC set $20/ton as a reasonable starting value
Common elements of establishing an internal carbon rice
Companies are beginning to assume a future carbon price
Companies are listed, but very few apparently disclose what the price is
Companies are preparing for carbon pricing
Companies are pricing carbon internally and supporting policy-based pricing
Companies can ask relevant questions like
Companies using "shadow pricing, " internal fees or trading, " and "implicit pricing"
ConocoPhillips
ConocoPhillips Carbon Pricing inour decision-making
Consider allowing more offsets
Construction
Consumers appear to respond more to a carbon tax than to equivalent change in oil price
Cost of delaying carbon tax imposition is high
CPLC launched to spearhead ambitious carbon pricing
Cummins
Delta
Deriving PAL REACT
Devon Energy $15
Did the Synapse low carbon price make a difference?
Differentiation of responsibilities should be accomplished through the Green Fund
Discusses up to $40/ton
Doing so for several reasons
Duke Energy
E.I. du Pont
EDF
Education, medical care, etc.
Electricity use
Eliminates huge trading risks
Emissions taxes
Emissions trading systems
Enabling environment and regulatory framework are important to carbon pricing
Energy intensity pre- and post-carbon tax
Energy pricing has been shown to drive changes in investment and use of emission-intensive technologies
Enhanced carbon audit has three layers
Entergy
Environmentalists should agree to replace CPP with a carbon tax because it reduces uncertainty
Eskom
EU ETS
EU ETS Challenges
EU ETS Program Snapshot
Even in the face of uncertainty, would be unreasonable to assume a $0 price on carbon
Everyone is committed to getting a price on carbon in the region
Everyone seems better off when the price is based on collective outcomes
Evidence suggests that carbon taxes have contributed to energy and carbon reductions
Examples of required information for establishing an internal carbon price
Exelon - "used price on carbon to rank abatement measures" ???
Existing carbon pricing systems
Exxon clearly used GHG costs in determining the financial viability of projects
Exxon has disclosed the carbon prices it uses internally
Exxon has justifiably used different carbon price proxies for different purposes
Exxon Mobil ($60 by 2030)
Exxon would support a revenue neutral carbon tax
Final consumption categories used
Financial instruments can be used to lower upfront costs of mitigation actions
Financial intermediaries and speculators have purchased more than 20 million allowances
First compliance deadline is November 1, 2015 - covering 2013-2014 emissions
First negotiate a green fund, then a carbon price
Food and Tobacco
For a 2 degree scenario there is a plausible carbon price path
Free-ridership cascades into failure
Fuel taxes
Fuel use for heating and cooking
Furniture and household appliances
GE
Global carbon pricing addresses the 4 decisive failures of cap and trade
Goal is to double extent of carbon pricing by 2020, and again by 2030
Goldman Sachs - SCC sited as best estimate of the externality
Google - $30 in 2012, now $14 based on AB32 auction prices
Harmonized domestic taxes
Have to avoid a least-common denominator price commitment
Hess
History of Oregon Carbon Dioxide Standard
How carbon pricing policies could be coordinated
How do the carbon prices compare to other utilities?
How does a TAMPP work
How would a global carbon price commitment work?
Huge investment continuing in oil and gas, so a big question
Huge investment continuing in oil and gas, so a big question
Hybrid instruments
IAMs generate their own estimate carbon prices for achieving a 2oC target
Idaho Power's carbon price assumptions and probabilities
IDEAcarbon
IEA estimates of carbon pricing for the 2oC scenarios
If the damages of a ton are paid for each year, then effectively equivalent to the SCC
If there's a material probability of a carbon price within the next decade, certain assets should be targeted
If you bring in more than 12% gas backup then Hinckley is the most cost-effective option
Impact of carbon pricing on business competitiveness in Europe - 1
Impact of carbon pricing on business competitiveness in Europe - 2
Impacts of Ireland's carbon tax
Impacts of Norways carbon tax
Impacts of Sweden's carbon tax
Impacts of the Netherland's carbon tax
Impacts of the UK's Climate Change Levy
Implications of carbon pricing for final consumption sectors
Implications of including a carbon price in fuel prices
In a supportive policy environment need a near-term carbon price of $40-80
In the cooperative case countries spend more and there is much more benefit
Incorporating carbon costs into utility resource planning is common
Instruments of climate negotiation should ideally possess three properties
Integrated scenarios and emission pathways
Integry Energy
Internal carbon pricing in North America - 2
Internal carbon pricing in North America - 3
International tradable permits
Internationally linked domestic cap and trade systems
Is a way of determining the extent to which events can be attributed to human activities
It makes sense to use one carbon price for demand forecasting, and another for project impacts
It should be easier to negotiate 1 price than N quantities
It's now mainstream in the oil and gas sector
Jabil Circuit
Key conclusions of analysis re design of effective carbon pricing policies
Key elements for designing a carbon tax - 1
Key elements for designing a carbon tax - 2
Key points re U.S. utility carbon pricing
Key to shadow pricing success is change management
Landowners can accurately verify their carbon capture efforts
Logic is that until now damages of CO2 have not been paid for, a sunk cost
Low medium and high price forecasts to 2015 - 2030
Main advantage of tradable permits is the prospect of free allowances to companies
Making CCS cost-effective calls for different levels of carbon pricing
Many emissions reduction efforts have failed
Marginal economic decision-making leads to much less than cooperation
Measures expected losses per ton of emissions and allocates the costs to each energy suppler - total revenue = total loss and damage by emissions
Meeting coverage goals won't be enough
Methodology used
Microsoft
Microsoft - 6-7
Microsoft - Microsoft's carbon fee supports productivity and profitability
Minnesota requires a carbon proxy price
Mobility
Modeling assumes $100/ton as being consistent with 2oC scenarios
More and more utility planning processes are including CO2 prices
Most appropriate methodoligy is the PALcarbon 1 year carbon price
Need for future work
Need to combine explicit carbon price with notional carbon price
Need to move from current carbon pricing hodge-podge to a unified system
Negotiating a carbon charge is difficult but not impossible
Negotiating a global carbon price should be easier than targets
NEPA does not provide an obvious opportunity for carbon proxy pricing
New Zealand's cap and trade system
No question that there are major compliance issues
No surprise that many conservative economists favor a carbon tax
Northern European carbon taxes
Not clear that carbon pricing suffers from monitoring problems often suggested
Novartis
Now, carbon emissions must be accounted for.
Numbers assume no discounting
Offset markets have failed
One option - use a proxy carbon price tied to what's required
PacifiCorp's carbon price assumptions and probabilities
PALcarbon price basically equivalent to SCC over a 6 year time frame (at 3%) discount rate
PALgamma and REACT can be approximate by simple exponential formulae
Pax World Funds - Exxon's internal carbon price will generate more reductions than Microsoft's
PEM's approach uses big-data analytics
PEM's carbon products are real-time measurable, and thus more valid
PEM's products track (14)CO2 - the marker for CO2 from human activities
PG&E Corp
Policies like carbon pricing face plasticity problems
Price "corridors" can balance flexibility and experience
Price carbon to stimulate investment
Price probably needs to be 80-100/ton to achieve 2 degree goal
Private sector leading the way on carbon pricing
Questions investors will have re carbon pricing
REACT - Reinsurance event attributed carbon tax
REACT uses global temperature anomaly to determine the global attribution factor
Reciprocity is what changes perceptions of self-interest
Regulatory efforts have failed
Report punts on the needed price trajectory
Results of Norway's carbon taxation
Revenue recycling affects costs of policies, but not price path
Rewards environmental ambition
RGGI
RGGI Program Snapshot
Role of CAT in generating CA emissions reductions
Royal DSM
Royal Dutch Shell $40
Shell - A $40 charge is used to assess proposed new capital investments as an "investment screening device"
Snapshot of RGGI impacts
Someone needs to take the lead
Statoil
Stops free riding in the negotiations
Studies assessing the performance of ETS regimes
SUEZ Environment
Suggests that Exxon's carbon prices go into project's "base economics"
Survey run. 700 responded of 10,000 invitations.
Swiss Carbon Tax Law an example of TAMPP
Synapse believes federal policies will create significant pressure to decarbonize the electric power sector
Synapse is not predicting prices, but to deliver forecasts useful to planning in the face of uncertainty
Talk of carbon pricing evokes the bitter memory of shock therapy in eastern Europe and the developing world. BlackRock’s backstop idea is the logic of the 2008 bank bailouts expanded to the global level – socialise the risks, privatise the profits.
TAMP design considerations 2
TAMPP - Tax Adjustment Mechanism for Policy Pre-Commitment
TAMPP design considerations 1
Tata Cleantech
Tax required for Paris agreement is modest
Taylor: 90% of people advocate a modest tax with a strict escalator
Taylor: If liberals are right that mitigation is cheap, then emissions reductions from a carbon tax should be huge
Taylor: Ironically, conservatives have the best answer to climate change - the power of markets and the invisible hand
Taylor: There is NOTHING that will get the job done besides a real price on carbon - regulation can't get there
TCFD lists internal carbon pricing as a key metric to assess climate and energy transition risks
TD Bank - first carbon neutral U.S. bank. Carbon price based on offsets and RECs, about $10 now
The "free-rider" problem is THE cause of negotiating problems on climate change
The basic guidance
The basis for the aggressive carbon pricing scenario
The carbon prices used were token prices
The carbon sensitivities used in Kentucky Power's Coal Retrofit Application
The existence of multiple uncertain tipping points doubles the optimal carbon tax
The FASTER principles are the way to success
The greatest problem we face is the lack of short-term benefits and loss-aversion
The implied price of carbon required to fund the transition is only $4/ton
The lower the initial price, the more rapid the required increase
The needed approach combines several things
The Paris agreement and carbon pricing
The perfect mitigation market scenario
The real problem is finding and fixing the cause of failing negotiations
The Solution
The status quo means the death of coal. Carbon taxation offers hope.
The tradability of a set number of global permits would ensure countries face the same carbon rice
The US and the EU seem less preoccupied with grand schemes of carbon pricing and blended finance, than with pushing a case-by-case approach
There are four carbon pricing instrument types
There's a major disconnect with proposed federal policy
This 2016 report incorporates several key developments since the 2015 forecast
This approach would require a serious compliance mechanism
This price corridor is narrower than suggested in the literature
This throws into question the worlds cap and trade carbon pricing systems - given the large difference in price
To avoid allowance prices spiraling upwards, outstanding design flaws need to be addressed
Today only a fraction of emissions are priced, and those are priced very low
Total
Uncertainty of carbon price is incorporated into models through "expected price."
Until countries recognize value of a collective commitment, voluntary altruisim will be insufficient
Wal-Mart
Walt Disney - $10-20
Walt Disney - Its price on carbon has stimulated emissions reductions and offsets
We don't have time to waste with more shell-games
We don't have time to waste with more shell-games
We need new market mechanisms
We use coping mechanisms to reconcile climate change in our heads
Weitzman's Dismal Theorem suggested a justification for aribitrarily high mitigation costs
Wells Fargo
What carbon prices did Synapse recommend?
What internal carbon pricing can accomplish
What's wrong with these sensitivities?
Widespread buying of carbon is a viable solution with no precedent
Works out ~$300/ton in 2050
Works out to ~$80/ton in 2030
World Bank - Carbon pricing momentum is growing
Would vote on a universal carbon price, based on the principle of one-person one-vote
Xcel Energy - uses "carbon proxy pricing" to plan for future carbon policy outcomes
Xcel Energy 20
2013 Abatement achieved by policy instruments applied in road transport sector
2013 Estimated average effective carbon prices in electricity sector by instrument type
Actually prices emissions
But in reality the situation is a lot more complicated, which is why you need a Green Fund
Implicit carbon prices today vary widely
That's been a key source of U.S. resistance
To manage carbon price risk, should use a mid-range forecast
Under an international carbon tax, nations could sort out their compliance however they like
16 Extracted Materials Headings
E - Case for Carbon Pricing
2016 Hafstead_Adding Quantity Certainty to a Carbon Tax
4.
Climate Web Headings
2021 Key benefits of carbon pricing
The importance of carbon pricing
"Carbon pricing policies capture the costs of damage"
"Successful carbon pricing schemes result in a measurable reduction in environmentally harmful behavior."
801: Can we make progress w/o carbon price? Have made 30 yrs of progress on energy efficiency - huge gains
Argument is being made to use carbon pricing to incentivize renewables, rather than support mechanisms
Carbon pricing benefits and challenges from a business perspective
Carbon pricing is indispensable to cost-effectively reducing emissions
Generation Investment Management - Calls for "methodical approach to incorporating carbon pricing scenarios" into valuation and analysis
Government decision-makers should start assuming a proxy carbon price
Need to adapt, implement a carbon price, and innovate
The inconvenient truth is that we need to price carbon.
What explains growing use of carbon markets?
Carbon Pricing TOC
I:BusinessCarbonPricingAdvocacy
I:CapandTrade
I:CarbonOffsetPrices
I:CarbonOffsetsandCarbonPricing
I:CarbonPriceCorridor
I:CarbonPriceForecasting
I:CarbonPricingandEmissionsReductions
I:CarbonPricingandTechnologyInnovation
I:CarbonPricingHistoryandTrends
I:CarbonPricingImpacts
I:CarbonPricingPoliticalFeasibility
I:CarbonPricingviaCarbonMarkets
I:CarbonPricingwithComplementaryPolicies
I:CarbonTaxation
I:ClimateExactions
I:ConsumptionBasedCarbonPricing
I:CurrentDamagesasCarbonPrice
I:EvaluatingBCsCarbonTax
I:EvaluatingCarbonPricing
I:ImplicitCarbonPricing
I:InternalCarbonPricing
I:InternationaTargetsasCarbonPriceBased
I:PolicyasCarbonPricing
I:RCCRiskCostofCarbonasCarbonPrice
I:SCCasCarbonPrice
I:SVMASocialValueofMitigationAction
I:TargetBasedCarbonPricing
I:UseofCarbonRevenues
S - Carbon Markets
S - Carbon Price Forecasts
S - Carbon Pricing Futures
S - Carbon Pricing History and Trends
S - Carbon Pricing in the Electricity Sector
S - Carbon Pricing Policy as Business Risk
S - Carbon Pricing Sources
S - Carbon Pricing System Design
S - Evaluating Carbon Pricing
S - Impacts of Pricing Carbon
S - Internal Corporate Carbon Pricing
S - National and Global Carbon Pricing
S - SCC Social Cost of Carbon Sources - Topical
S - State and Local Carbon Pricing
S - Taxing Carbon
S - Why and How of Pricing Carbon
N - Carbon Price Forecasting
N - Carbon Pricing Advocacy
N - Carbon Pricing Impacts
N - Carbon Pricing News - Topical
N - Carbon Pricing Trends
N - Evaluating Carbon Pricing
N - Internal Carbon Pricing - Business and Other
N - SCC News - Topical
N - State Carbon Pricing
N - Taxing Carbon
V - Carbon Pricing
E - Business Carbon Pricing Advocacy
E - Cap and Trade Performance
E - Carbon Price Design
E - Carbon pricing politics
E - Carbon Pricing Coverage
E - Carbon Pricing History and Trends
E - Carbon Pricing Impacts
E - Carbon Pricing Required for Emissions Targets
E - Carbon Pricing Scenarios and Forecasts
E - Carbon Taxation
E - Case for Carbon Pricing
E - Company-Specific Carbon Pricing
E - Evaluating Carbon Pricing
E - Implict Carbon Price of Policies and Measures
E - Internal Business Carbon Pricing
E - Negotiating a Global Carbon Price
T - Carbon Pricing Individuals
T - Carbon Pricing Networks
I:CarbonPricinginScenarioPlanning
E - Carbon Pricing Knowledgebases
2013 CDP_Use of internal carbon price by companies
Carbon Pricing for Paris Agreement
Carbon Pricing in Brief
Carbon Pricing Intro
Carbon Pricing Rules of Thumb
Implicit Carbon Pricing
Scoping Out the Topic of Carbon Pricing
Summing Up the Options for Carbon Pricing
E - Business Carbon Pricing Advocacy
E - Cap and Trade Performance
E - Carbon Price Design
E - Carbon pricing politics
E - Carbon Pricing Coverage
E - Carbon Pricing History and Trends
E - Carbon Pricing Impacts
E - Carbon Pricing Required for Emissions Targets
E - Carbon Pricing Revenues and Use
E - Carbon Pricing Scenarios and Forecasts
E - Carbon Taxation
E - Case for Carbon Pricing
E - Company-Specific Carbon Pricing
E - Efficient Optimal Carbon Pricing
E - Evaluating Carbon Pricing
E - Implict Carbon Price of Policies and Measures
E - Internal Business Carbon Pricing
E - Negotiating a Global Carbon Price
E - SCC as Carbon Price
E - Sectoral Carbon Pricing and Pathways
E - Shadow Pricing
2007 Carbon Prices Will be Important in Determining Which Clean Technologies Are Viable
2008 Emissions scenarios for aluminum production to 2050
2009 $20/ton Carbon = 15-30% Rise in Electricity Rates
2009 Carbon regulation would reshuffle the aluminum industry's cost curve
2009 The progression of carbon pricing
2009 When will natural gas actually displace coal?
2010 Fig 5. Tail risk vs. carbon tax
2010 Fig 6
2010 Final analysis - SCC values at alternative discounts, and 95% percentile
2010 GDP Impacts of up to 4 C Change for Multiple Models
2010 GDP Impacts of up to 10 C Change For Multiple Models
2010 Industry winners and losers after inclusion of carbon prices
2010 Probability density of GDP under model runs with $0, $50, and $500 carbon prices
2010 Regret analysis for alternative carbon taxes
2010 Welfare probabilities shown against $50 and $500 carbon taxes
2010 Winners and losers in a U.S. carbon market
2012 Carbon price forecasts for different utilities
2012 Price forecasts for different pieces of legislation
2012 Synapse price forecast
2013 Carbon price required to limit change to 2.5 degrees
2013 Estimated effective carbon prices in the electricity sector
2013 Estimated effective carbon prices in the road transport sector
2013 Existing, Emerging and Potential emissions trading programs
2013 Impact of a $25/ton carbon price on household expenditures
2013 SCC models are commonly characterized by a continued growth trajectory, regardless of climate change
2013 What do all of the 2010 IAMs estimate at a 3% discount rate
2013 World Bank tabulation of carbon prices
2014 150 major corporations - 29 in US, have an internal carbon price
2014 200 Companies Are Engaging Policy-makers to Support Carbon-pricing Legislation
2014 500 companies globally report they are regulated by global carbon markets
2014 Global GDP has been closely tied to fossil fuel use
2014 Impact of carbon pricing on electricity outages
2014 Installed generation mix based on different carbon prices
2014 Levelized costs of energy with a 50E carbon price
2014 Map page 1
2014 Map page 2
2014 Using a realistic payment probability shows the significant different between expected carbon price and expected carbon payment
2015 4. Other ways to get to same objective, e.g. $30/ton carbon tax
2015 Attributes of carbon fee vs. shadow price
2015 Carbon prices used by 19 companies disclosing price
2015 Companies using internal carbon prices
2015 Consumer Discretionary
2015 Consumer Staples
2015 Darwinism Curve with ($4) minimal carbon pricing
2015 Darwinism Curve with $25 adn $50/ton carbon pricing
2015 Emissions reductions associated with efficient carbon pricing
2015 Energy
2015 Financials
2015 Global 500 advocacy on carbon pricing
2015 Global coverage is increasing quickly
2015 Health Care
2015 How are companies engaging on government carbon pricing
2015 How shadow prices drive decision-making
2015 Implications of a $100/ton carbon price
2015 Industrials
2015 Information Technology
2015 Internal carbon prices vary significantly based on whether a "fee" or a "shadow price"
2015 Internal carbon pricing various sectors are using
2015 Internal voluntary carbon prices by sector
2015 Materials
2015 Most Common Benefits and Challenges
2015 Other ways to get to same objective, e.g. $30/ton carbon tax
2015 Overview of existing and emerging carbon pricing instruments
2015 Prices of existing carbon pricing instruments
2015 Recommended pricing reporting guidance
2015 Selected companies with a carbon price
2015 Solar and wind costs translated into $/ton CO2
2015 Telecommunications
2015 The non-climate benefits and costs of CO2
2015 Utilities
2016 1,249 companies are pricing or planning to price carbon
2016 4 carbon pricing scenarios for 2030
2016 37 companies reported a direct link between carbon pricing and tangible change
2016 94% of analysts don't focus on earnings after 5 years
2016 Agent-based models show more realistically abatement potentials and costs
2016 Although a reliability-based shadow price gives very different results
2016 Auction results for RGGI and California
2016 Box plots for economic damages and social cost of carbon
2016 Carbon price and emissions coverage across the board
2016 Carbon pricing initiatives, with sectoral and GHG coverage
2016 Carbon taxation vs. emissions trading
2016 CER, ERU and voluntary offset issuance and prices to date
2016 Chronology of compliance carbon instruments
2016 Compliance based carbon pricing instruments
2016 Current carbon pricing coverage
2016 Examples of utility price forecasts
2016 Exxon's proposed internal carbon price trajectory
2016 Figure 1 - impact of material carbon price
2016 Growth in number of carbon pricing initiatives
2016 Horizontal vs. vertical perspective on carbon pricing
2016 Horizontal vs. vertical perspective on carbon pricing
2016 How abatement costs are often thought of
2016 Impact of policy distortions on apparent abatement cost
2016 Impact of policy distortions on apparent abatement cost
2016 Impact of WAIS collapse by 2200 modest in terms of suggested SCC
2016 Impact of WAIS collapse by 2200 modest in terms of suggested SCC
2016 Internal carbon prices vs offset prices
2016 Internal carbon pricing
2016 Mandatory vs. internal carbon prices for several jurisdictions
2016 Mapping GHG productivity along value chains
2016 Mapping GHG productivity along value chains
2016 Oil production costs vary widely
2016 Oil production costs vary widely
2016 Overview of carbon pricing by the numbers
2016 Overview of carbon pricing by the numbers
2016 Position of companies on introducing carbon pricing
2016 Position of companies on introducing carbon pricing
2016 Potential price impact of global carbon price after revenue recycling
2016 Prices in existing carbon pricing initiatives
2016 Sectoral responses to carbon pricing survey
2016 Summary of carbon pricing initiatives
2016 There is no demand for long-term analysis (19)
2017 10 year and 35 year results
2017 35 year sensitivity
2017 Carbon price corridor for the power sector
2017 Carbon pricing corridor compared to other pathways to a 2oC scenario
2017 Carbon pricing could cover costs of universal access to basic services
2017 Carbon pricing scenarios for switching to coal with CCS or Nuclear
2017 Carbon revenue recycling can benefit poor
2017 Carbon revenues could significantly expand social assistance
2017 Estimated marginal abatement costs under the IEA 2oC scenario
2017 Expected cost of carbon
2017 Heat maps - sensitivity of asset classes to climate risk factors
2017 OPTrust TRIP Expsoures
2017 Risk factors illustrated relatively by scenario
2017 Sensitivity to TRIP risk factors by OPTrust greatest over short term
2017 Share of global emissions under a carbon price
2017 Snapshot of the status of carbon pricing
2018 Companies using carbon pricing or preparing to
2018 Recent trends in carbon pricing
2018 The carbon pricing gap for OECD and G20 Countries
2021 Calculated components of the price of carbon facing Norwegian motorists as of 2019
2021 IPR carbon price policy forecast
2021 Voluntary carbon credit prices and demand 2019 by project type
2021 Voluntary carbon credit prices and demand 2019 by vintage
Additional design considerations - 1
Attributes of carbon fee pricing
Attributes of carbon shadow pricing
Australian Carbon Prices and Food Prices
Availability of nuclear option greatly complicates adoption of wind
Average abatement cost in 2016 for multiple ETS
Calculated "marginal" benefit cost ratio for 2011
Carbon price impact stress-testing approach
2013 Carbon price required to achieve EU targets varies widely
2017 Carbon Price scenario analysis to meet 2 degree target
Carbon Pricing by Country
Carbon Pricing Coverage by Country
Carbon taxes around the world
Cheap energy is important for less poverty and better health
CO2 content and tax rates for fossil fuels at $49/ton CO2
CO2 Values used by utilities in resource planning
Coal keeps electricity prices down
Comparison of relevant signposts within physical climate scenarios
Design and Implementation steps for a carbon market
2010 Economic implications of alternative carbon tax levels
Equity holds of financial actors, top 15 funds, and top 15 banks
European company carbon prices
FASTER principles for successful carbon pricing
First and second round bank equity losses
Forward looking benefit cost ratios
Framework for evaluating ETS performance (1)
Framework for evaluating ETS performance (2)
GDP will continue to rise rapidly
How Carbon Translates To Energy Prices
How the Corridors can be used
2017 IAM generated carbon pricing to achieve the 2oC target
Impact of Carbon Pricing
Impact of delaying action for 10 years
Impacts of Australia's carbon tax
Impacts of BC's carbon tax
Income implications of $49 carbon tax with revenue recycling options
Income implications of $49 carbon tax without revenue recycling
Integrated implementation scenarios 2010 - 2030
Internal carbon pricing in North America - 1
Linking real assets to financial portfolios (9)
Low carbon impact smart beta portfolio
2017 Making wind competitive against coal requires very different regional carbon pricing
2014 Nationally efficient CO2 prices - selected emitters 2010
Norway's carbon tax experience
Number of companies planning to price carbon up 23% from 2015
Objectives of the report
One can project the "CO2 Yield for Crops in the Future
Overall assessment of ETS regime performance
Portfolio impacts at 10 years
Portfolio impacts at 10 years
Portfolio impacts at 10 years
Prices Based on Atmospheric Stabilization
Prices Based on Political Reality
Prices Based on Stalemate
Reclassified NACE sectors to climate-policy-relevant sectors
Relative price increases based on carbon tax scenarios
Relative sector impact on PBT by 2020
Revised 2013 Social Cost of CO2, 2010-2050 ($2007)
Risks are long-term, investment focus short-term
Setting a corporate price on carbon
Six principal design choices in pricing carbon
Subtracting out benefits of energy from non-fossil fuel sources
Summary of carbon tax survey results
Tax, net revenue, and emissions under a carbon tax (main case)
Tax, net revenue, and emissions under a carbon tax (rapid technology progress)
Testing 2D alignment for real assets
Testing the alignment of real assets with a 2D target (4)
The 2oC Framework
The 2oC portfolio approach
The benefit cost ratio for CO2 is huge
The social cost of carbon emissions
The study concluded that policy and technology change in risk, but impacts almost irrelevant
Transition scenarios - IEA outlook to 2040
Translating a 2oC scenario into a 2oC benchmark - 1
Utility scenarios for carbon prices vary widely
Visualizing Carbon Pricing GIF to 2017
Voluntary vs. mandatory ways to respond to scenario challenges
2011 Infographic - Carbon price - key figures (Australia)
Infographic - Carbon Pricing in Canada
Brownstein, Mark S. - Environmental Defense
1. Fairness - equitable distribution of benefits and costs
1 in 5 CDP respondents reported planning to price carbon
2. Alignment of Policies and Objectives - Alignment is good
3 sources of uncertainty in forecasting emissions
3. Stability and Predictability - Predictability is good
4. Transparency - Transparency is good
5. Efficiency and Cost-Effectiveness - Efficiency is good
6. Reliability and Environmental Integrity - Environmental impact is good
84% of survey respondents held lax policy beliefs
437 companies report an internal carbon price in 2015 up from 150 in 2014
726: Expects ARB to bring in more offsets to keep allowance prices down. What's the acceptable price? 25-30?
731: Cap and Dividend can't possibly win at the polls
731: Even if Republicans say they like a revenue-neutral carbon tax, the support won't make it to the election
731: Even Oregon, the greenest state in the U.S., couldn't pass a Cap and Dividend ballot measure
731: The only chance for Cap and Dividend would be a state without ballot initiatives
731: Voters basically say that if you're not going to return the money, you should be spending it on "good things."
875: Actually easier to sell to some Republicans than some Democrats
875: CCL from 182 letters to editor in 2011 to over 1000 this year. Starting to get a lot of editorial in favor of a carbon tax
875: Doubling every four years. Optimistic, but if had to be would bet against success
875: Just nutty to think offsets can work
875: Politicians don't create political will. They respond to it. We can change political environmental and outcomes
875: Thinks that when price of carbon rises, seeing a check every month is the approach for maintaining support
875: Would eliminate ALL energy subsidies
1000+ companies do or will price carbon emissions
1968 - First discussion of market-based caps and tradable allowances
1990's - First carbon pricing instruments in Scandinavia
2006 - First program in the U.S. (California) to enact an economy-wide carbon target
2008 The potential impacts of carbon regulations on energy sources is very uncertain
2012 What are the ranges of carbon prices used by other utilities?
2013 29 Companies Disclose an Internal Carbon Price
2013 Abatement achieved with individual instruments addressing electricity generation
2013 Impact of a $25/ton carbon price on fossil fuels
2013 The problem of self-interest, showing the impacts of a $25/ton tax on production costs.
2015 Why do it?
2016 A true climate dividend plan plays well with the public
2020-2030: Carbon pricing must exceed $400/ton by mid-century
A carbon charge would produce revenues for years to come
A climate dividend could help tackle inequality
A climate dividend plan could offer a grand bargain
A climate dividends plan tackle's Kaheman's loss aversion theory
A firm and credible ceiling price
A harmonized carbon price has a built-in self-enforcing mechanism that counters free riding
A harmonzed carbon price does create a countervailing force
A huge range in carbon taxation and economic coverage
A hybrid carbon price mechanism has advantages
A lack of public participation in carbon markets is the "missing link"
A ratchet mechanism is likely to lead to reduced ambition
A variety of carbon pricing case studies provided, but generally not possible to interpret
AB 32 Compliance Snapshot
AB32 Allowance budget vs actual emissions
AB32 auction revenue distribution
AB32 Coverage Snapshot
AB32 Impacts
AB32 Offset Sectors
Abengoa
Abstract
Abstract
Abstract
Additional design considerations - 2
AEP - "we factor a cost"
AEP - Uses unspecified price in IRP process to capture future regulatory risk
Alberta's tradable carbon performance standard
All tons of CO2 should be priced equally
Alongside the PAL price the US SCC appears the only credible pricing alternative
Ameren $30 in 2025
An an international cap and trade system is hard to figure out
An emissions cap establishes no countervailing force
An escalating carbon tax would pack a real punch
An Executive Order could require carbon proxy pricing
Any quantity-based target is doomed by free-rider issues
Apache -
Arguments like Naomi Klein's are exactly the wrong arguments to avoid triggering loss aversion
As governments take real action, carbon prices could rise
Author's hypothesis that practitioners in 2005-6 saw many ways to avoid paying CO2 price
Average voluntary market prices should rise to $20-50/tCO2e by 2030
Avoid the distraction of debating the internal carbon price
Based on models that reflect emissions uncertainty, carbon taxes outperform tradeable permits
BC's carbon tax
Ben & Jerry's
Border tax adjustments
Bottom line is that carbon taxes can be useful, but at politically feasible levels impacts have been modest
BP
Braskem
British Columbia's carbon tax proves two things
But climate ambition and perceived narrow self-interest are contradictory
But costs of too aggressive mitigation efforts could be worse than the problem
CA emissions trends to 2013
Cap and trade did not lead to a common carbon price - far from it
Cap and trade should have passed, but didn't. Cap and dividend can't pass
037 Cap-and-trade while has not proven to be substantial driver of investment in new clean energy projects
Carbon markets catalyzed large scale funding into climate-smart development
Carbon price paths
Carbon price signals need to be credible and predictable
Carbon prices intended to change behavior have to stand out from the noise
Carbon pricing corridors will help bring certainty to accelerating emissions reduction efforts
Carbon pricing leading to abatement does impose costs - abatement costs money
Carbon pricing mechanisms could soon reach almost 50% of global emissions
Carbon Pricing Corridors can help manage climate risks
Carbon Pricing Corridors Initiative provides a benchmark for business and investors
Carbon tax is up to $132 in 2017
Carbon taxation is the obvious answer, but advocates have yet to find a winning policy and political formula
Carbon Trust Offset Portfolio
CDP questionnaire guidance
Cemex
Christine Todd Whitman - Renewables and other investments all look more attractive with a carbon price
Clothing
CMS Energy
Colorado PUC set $20/ton as a reasonable starting value
Common elements of establishing an internal carbon rice
Companies are beginning to assume a future carbon price
Companies are listed, but very few apparently disclose what the price is
Companies are preparing for carbon pricing
Companies are pricing carbon internally and supporting policy-based pricing
Companies can ask relevant questions like
Companies using "shadow pricing, " internal fees or trading, " and "implicit pricing"
ConocoPhillips
ConocoPhillips Carbon Pricing inour decision-making
Consider allowing more offsets
Construction
Consumers appear to respond more to a carbon tax than to equivalent change in oil price
Cost of delaying carbon tax imposition is high
CPLC launched to spearhead ambitious carbon pricing
Cummins
Delta
Deriving PAL REACT
Devon Energy $15
Did the Synapse low carbon price make a difference?
Differentiation of responsibilities should be accomplished through the Green Fund
Discusses up to $40/ton
Doing so for several reasons
Duke Energy
E.I. du Pont
EDF
Education, medical care, etc.
Electricity use
Eliminates huge trading risks
Emissions taxes
Emissions trading systems
Enabling environment and regulatory framework are important to carbon pricing
Energy intensity pre- and post-carbon tax
Energy pricing has been shown to drive changes in investment and use of emission-intensive technologies
Enhanced carbon audit has three layers
Entergy
Environmentalists should agree to replace CPP with a carbon tax because it reduces uncertainty
Eskom
EU ETS
EU ETS Challenges
EU ETS Program Snapshot
Even in the face of uncertainty, would be unreasonable to assume a $0 price on carbon
Everyone is committed to getting a price on carbon in the region
Everyone seems better off when the price is based on collective outcomes
Evidence suggests that carbon taxes have contributed to energy and carbon reductions
Examples of required information for establishing an internal carbon price
Exelon - "used price on carbon to rank abatement measures" ???
Existing carbon pricing systems
Exxon clearly used GHG costs in determining the financial viability of projects
Exxon has disclosed the carbon prices it uses internally
Exxon has justifiably used different carbon price proxies for different purposes
Exxon Mobil ($60 by 2030)
Exxon would support a revenue neutral carbon tax
Final consumption categories used
Financial instruments can be used to lower upfront costs of mitigation actions
Financial intermediaries and speculators have purchased more than 20 million allowances
First compliance deadline is November 1, 2015 - covering 2013-2014 emissions
First negotiate a green fund, then a carbon price
Food and Tobacco
For a 2 degree scenario there is a plausible carbon price path
Free-ridership cascades into failure
Fuel taxes
Fuel use for heating and cooking
Furniture and household appliances
GE
Global carbon pricing addresses the 4 decisive failures of cap and trade
Goal is to double extent of carbon pricing by 2020, and again by 2030
Goldman Sachs - SCC sited as best estimate of the externality
Google - $30 in 2012, now $14 based on AB32 auction prices
Harmonized domestic taxes
Have to avoid a least-common denominator price commitment
Hess
History of Oregon Carbon Dioxide Standard
How carbon pricing policies could be coordinated
How do the carbon prices compare to other utilities?
How does a TAMPP work
How would a global carbon price commitment work?
Huge investment continuing in oil and gas, so a big question
Huge investment continuing in oil and gas, so a big question
Hybrid instruments
IAMs generate their own estimate carbon prices for achieving a 2oC target
Idaho Power's carbon price assumptions and probabilities
IDEAcarbon
IEA estimates of carbon pricing for the 2oC scenarios
If the damages of a ton are paid for each year, then effectively equivalent to the SCC
If there's a material probability of a carbon price within the next decade, certain assets should be targeted
If you bring in more than 12% gas backup then Hinckley is the most cost-effective option
Impact of carbon pricing on business competitiveness in Europe - 1
Impact of carbon pricing on business competitiveness in Europe - 2
Impacts of Ireland's carbon tax
Impacts of Norways carbon tax
Impacts of Sweden's carbon tax
Impacts of the Netherland's carbon tax
Impacts of the UK's Climate Change Levy
Implications of carbon pricing for final consumption sectors
Implications of including a carbon price in fuel prices
In a supportive policy environment need a near-term carbon price of $40-80
In the cooperative case countries spend more and there is much more benefit
Incorporating carbon costs into utility resource planning is common
Instruments of climate negotiation should ideally possess three properties
Integrated scenarios and emission pathways
Integry Energy
Internal carbon pricing in North America - 2
Internal carbon pricing in North America - 3
International tradable permits
Internationally linked domestic cap and trade systems
Is a way of determining the extent to which events can be attributed to human activities
It makes sense to use one carbon price for demand forecasting, and another for project impacts
It should be easier to negotiate 1 price than N quantities
It's now mainstream in the oil and gas sector
Jabil Circuit
Key conclusions of analysis re design of effective carbon pricing policies
Key elements for designing a carbon tax - 1
Key elements for designing a carbon tax - 2
Key points re U.S. utility carbon pricing
Key to shadow pricing success is change management
Landowners can accurately verify their carbon capture efforts
Logic is that until now damages of CO2 have not been paid for, a sunk cost
Low medium and high price forecasts to 2015 - 2030
Main advantage of tradable permits is the prospect of free allowances to companies
Making CCS cost-effective calls for different levels of carbon pricing
Many emissions reduction efforts have failed
Marginal economic decision-making leads to much less than cooperation
Measures expected losses per ton of emissions and allocates the costs to each energy suppler - total revenue = total loss and damage by emissions
Meeting coverage goals won't be enough
Methodology used
Microsoft
Microsoft - 6-7
Microsoft - Microsoft's carbon fee supports productivity and profitability
Minnesota requires a carbon proxy price
Mobility
Modeling assumes $100/ton as being consistent with 2oC scenarios
More and more utility planning processes are including CO2 prices
Most appropriate methodoligy is the PALcarbon 1 year carbon price
Need for future work
Need to combine explicit carbon price with notional carbon price
Need to move from current carbon pricing hodge-podge to a unified system
Negotiating a carbon charge is difficult but not impossible
Negotiating a global carbon price should be easier than targets
NEPA does not provide an obvious opportunity for carbon proxy pricing
New Zealand's cap and trade system
No question that there are major compliance issues
No surprise that many conservative economists favor a carbon tax
Northern European carbon taxes
Not clear that carbon pricing suffers from monitoring problems often suggested
Novartis
Now, carbon emissions must be accounted for.
Numbers assume no discounting
Offset markets have failed
One option - use a proxy carbon price tied to what's required
PacifiCorp's carbon price assumptions and probabilities
PALcarbon price basically equivalent to SCC over a 6 year time frame (at 3%) discount rate
PALgamma and REACT can be approximate by simple exponential formulae
Pax World Funds - Exxon's internal carbon price will generate more reductions than Microsoft's
PEM's approach uses big-data analytics
PEM's carbon products are real-time measurable, and thus more valid
PEM's products track (14)CO2 - the marker for CO2 from human activities
PG&E Corp
Policies like carbon pricing face plasticity problems
Price "corridors" can balance flexibility and experience
Price carbon to stimulate investment
Price probably needs to be 80-100/ton to achieve 2 degree goal
Private sector leading the way on carbon pricing
Questions investors will have re carbon pricing
REACT - Reinsurance event attributed carbon tax
REACT uses global temperature anomaly to determine the global attribution factor
Reciprocity is what changes perceptions of self-interest
Regulatory efforts have failed
Report punts on the needed price trajectory
Results of Norway's carbon taxation
Revenue recycling affects costs of policies, but not price path
Rewards environmental ambition
RGGI
RGGI Program Snapshot
Role of CAT in generating CA emissions reductions
Royal DSM
Royal Dutch Shell $40
Shell - A $40 charge is used to assess proposed new capital investments as an "investment screening device"
Snapshot of RGGI impacts
Someone needs to take the lead
Statoil
Stops free riding in the negotiations
Studies assessing the performance of ETS regimes
SUEZ Environment
Suggests that Exxon's carbon prices go into project's "base economics"
Survey run. 700 responded of 10,000 invitations.
Swiss Carbon Tax Law an example of TAMPP
Synapse believes federal policies will create significant pressure to decarbonize the electric power sector
Synapse is not predicting prices, but to deliver forecasts useful to planning in the face of uncertainty
Talk of carbon pricing evokes the bitter memory of shock therapy in eastern Europe and the developing world. BlackRock’s backstop idea is the logic of the 2008 bank bailouts expanded to the global level – socialise the risks, privatise the profits.
TAMP design considerations 2
TAMPP - Tax Adjustment Mechanism for Policy Pre-Commitment
TAMPP design considerations 1
Tata Cleantech
Tax required for Paris agreement is modest
Taylor: 90% of people advocate a modest tax with a strict escalator
Taylor: If liberals are right that mitigation is cheap, then emissions reductions from a carbon tax should be huge
Taylor: Ironically, conservatives have the best answer to climate change - the power of markets and the invisible hand
Taylor: There is NOTHING that will get the job done besides a real price on carbon - regulation can't get there
TCFD lists internal carbon pricing as a key metric to assess climate and energy transition risks
TD Bank - first carbon neutral U.S. bank. Carbon price based on offsets and RECs, about $10 now
The "free-rider" problem is THE cause of negotiating problems on climate change
The basic guidance
The basis for the aggressive carbon pricing scenario
The carbon prices used were token prices
The carbon sensitivities used in Kentucky Power's Coal Retrofit Application
The existence of multiple uncertain tipping points doubles the optimal carbon tax
The FASTER principles are the way to success
The greatest problem we face is the lack of short-term benefits and loss-aversion
The implied price of carbon required to fund the transition is only $4/ton
The lower the initial price, the more rapid the required increase
The needed approach combines several things
The Paris agreement and carbon pricing
The perfect mitigation market scenario
The real problem is finding and fixing the cause of failing negotiations
The Solution
The status quo means the death of coal. Carbon taxation offers hope.
The tradability of a set number of global permits would ensure countries face the same carbon rice
The US and the EU seem less preoccupied with grand schemes of carbon pricing and blended finance, than with pushing a case-by-case approach
There are four carbon pricing instrument types
There's a major disconnect with proposed federal policy
This 2016 report incorporates several key developments since the 2015 forecast
This approach would require a serious compliance mechanism
This price corridor is narrower than suggested in the literature
This throws into question the worlds cap and trade carbon pricing systems - given the large difference in price
To avoid allowance prices spiraling upwards, outstanding design flaws need to be addressed
Today only a fraction of emissions are priced, and those are priced very low
Total
Uncertainty of carbon price is incorporated into models through "expected price."
Until countries recognize value of a collective commitment, voluntary altruisim will be insufficient
Wal-Mart
Walt Disney - $10-20
Walt Disney - Its price on carbon has stimulated emissions reductions and offsets
We don't have time to waste with more shell-games
We don't have time to waste with more shell-games
We need new market mechanisms
We use coping mechanisms to reconcile climate change in our heads
Weitzman's Dismal Theorem suggested a justification for aribitrarily high mitigation costs
Wells Fargo
What carbon prices did Synapse recommend?
What internal carbon pricing can accomplish
What's wrong with these sensitivities?
Widespread buying of carbon is a viable solution with no precedent
Works out ~$300/ton in 2050
Works out to ~$80/ton in 2030
World Bank - Carbon pricing momentum is growing
Would vote on a universal carbon price, based on the principle of one-person one-vote
Xcel Energy - uses "carbon proxy pricing" to plan for future carbon policy outcomes
Xcel Energy 20
2013 Abatement achieved by policy instruments applied in road transport sector
2013 Estimated average effective carbon prices in electricity sector by instrument type
Actually prices emissions
But in reality the situation is a lot more complicated, which is why you need a Green Fund
Implicit carbon prices today vary widely
That's been a key source of U.S. resistance
To manage carbon price risk, should use a mid-range forecast
Under an international carbon tax, nations could sort out their compliance however they like