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2019 Spratt_Existential climate-related security risk A scenario approach
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2019 Spratt_Existential Climate-Related Security Risk A scenario approach
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4oC may be “beyond adaptation”, and even 3oC could be regionally catastrophic.
A high risk climate scenario for 2050
Climate risk is a function of likelihood and impact, and fat-tailed outcomes contribute dramatically to risk
Climate risk management should focus on “unprecedented possibilities” rather than “middle-of-the-road probabilities.”
For scenario planning to effectively tackled climate change risk, it has to explore the “unprecedented possibilities”
Policy Recommendations
Successful implementation of the Paris Agreement could correlate to 5oC of warming by 2100.
We are failing to focus sufficiently on the biggest risks and difficult to quantify outcomes.
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2019 Spratt_Existential climate-related security risk A scenario approach
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2019 Spratt_Existential climate-related security risk A scenario approach
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2019 Spratt_Existential climate-related security risk A scenario approach
Discussion Focuses National Security Implications Climate Change, Jun 5 2017
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