The Climate Web | 2019 Spratt_Existential climate-related security risk A scenario approach

2019 Spratt_Existential climate-related security risk A scenario approach

4oC may be “beyond adaptation”, and even 3oC could be regionally catastrophic.

A high risk climate scenario for 2050

Climate risk is a function of likelihood and impact, and fat-tailed outcomes contribute dramatically to risk

Climate risk management should focus on “unprecedented possibilities” rather than “middle-of-the-road probabilities.”

For scenario planning to effectively tackled climate change risk, it has to explore the “unprecedented possibilities”

Policy Recommendations

Successful implementation of the Paris Agreement could correlate to 5oC of warming by 2100.

We are failing to focus sufficiently on the biggest risks and difficult to quantify outcomes.

S - Climate Change Systemic Risk

S - Climate Emergency Sources

S - Climate Security Migration

S - Futures and Foresight Top Level

Spratt, David

I:ClimateasThreatMultiplier

2019/6 Alarming climate report says 25m sea level rise on the way

2010 Institute for the Future - The Future is a High Res Game

S - Abrupt Climate Change

S - Catastrophic Risk Decision-Making

S - Climate Change Fingerprint to Date

S - Climate Change Tipping Points

S - Climate Engineering Sources

S - Conflict and Climate Change

S - Dangerous Climate Impacts

S - Decision-making Under Uncertainty

S - Economic Futures

S - Economic/Political Disruption as Business Risk

S - Ecotage EcoTerrorism

S - Emerging Risks

S - Environmental and Climate Storytelling

S - Environmental Migrants

S - Foresight How To

S - Future Forecasts and Case Studies

S - Global Risk Assessment

S - Human Extinction

S - Impact Attribution

S - Limits to Growth

S - Planetary Boundaries

S - Policy Outcomes as Business Risk

S - Prediction Markets

S - Probabilistic Decision-Making

S - Scenario Planning

S - Security Military Adaptation

S - Stranded Assets

S - Under-Estimating Climate Risk

S - Using Foresight

1990 DeFries_One Earth, One Future: Our Changing Global Environment

1997 Kaplan_The Ends of the Earth: From Togo to Turkmenistan, from Iran to Cambodia, a Journey to the Frontiers of Anarchy

2000 Berry_The Great Work Our Way into the Future

2006 Rockwell_Why Are the Ice Caps Melting?: The Dangers of Global Warming

2007 Hillman_The Suicidal Planet: How to Prevent Global Climate Catastrophe

2008 Campbell Climatic Cataclysm The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Climate Change $$

2009 Orr_Down to the Wire Confronting Climate Collapse

2009 Orr_Down to the Wire: Confronting Climate Collapse

2010 Brand_Why Dense Cities, Nuclear Power, Transgenic Crops, Restored Wildlands, and Geoengineering Are Necessary

2010 Smith The World in 2050

2011 Moran_Climate Change and National Security A Country-Level Analysis

2013 Kaplan_The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells Us About Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate

2013 Redclift_Handbook on Climate Change and Human Security

2013 Sharpe_Three Horizons The Patterning of Hope

2014 Moellendorf_The Moral Challenge of Dangerous Climate Change: Values, Poverty, and Policy

2015 Boas_Climate Migration and Security: Securitisation as a Strategy in Climate Change Politics

2015 Boulton_Embracing Complexity: Strategic Perspectives for an Age of Turbulence

2015 Buxton_The Secure and the Dispossessed: How the Military and Corporations are Shaping a Climate-Changed World

2015 Mann_Dire Predictions: Understanding Climate Change (2nd Edition)

2015 Marzec_Climate change war games $$

2015 Marzec_Militarizing the Environment: Climate Change and the Security State

2015 Shaw_The Two Degrees Dangerous Limit for Climate Change: Public Understanding and Decision Making

2015 Stern_Why Are We Waiting?: The Logic, Urgency, and Promise of Tackling Climate Change

2016 Grain_The Great Climate Robbery: How the Food System Drives Climate Change and What We Can Do About It

2016 Mykleby_Restoring America's Prosperity, Security, and Sustainability in the 21st Century

2016 Orr_Climate Change, the Long Emergency, and the Way Forward

2016 Scharmer_Theory U: Leading from the Future as It Emerges e

2016 Wilson_Half-Earth: Our Planet's Fight for Life

2017 Harrington_Security in the Anthropocene Reflections on Safety and Care

2017 Sternberg_Climate Hazard Crises in Asian Societies and Environments (Routledge Studies in Hazards, Disaster Risk and Climate Change)

2018 LaTour_Down to Earth: Politics in the New Climatic Regime

2018 Lynch_Urgency in the Anthropocene

2018 Rees_On the Future: Prospects for Humanity

2018 Scranton_We're Doomed. Now What?: Essays on War and Climate Change

2018 Stephens_How Does Critique Respond to the Urgency of Climate Change?

2019 Jamail_The End of Ice: Bearing Witness and Finding Meaning in the Path of Climate Disruption

2019 Wallace-Wells_The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After Warming

2020 Ariza_Disposable City: Miami's Future on the Shores of Climate Catastrophe

2020 Heffernan_Uncharted: How to Navigate the Future eBook

2020 Lanza_One World: The Health and Survival of the Human Species in the 21st Century

2020 Ord_The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity

2021 Heinberg_Power: Limits and Prospects for Human Survival

2021 Pogue_How to Prepare for Climate Change: A Practical Guide to Surviving the Chaos

2022 Saravanan_Past, Present, and Future of Climate Prediction

2022 Zeihan_The End of the World is Just Beginning Mapping the collapse of globalization - figures

2023 Tupy_Super Abundance The Story of Population Growth, Innovation, and Human Flourishing on an Infinitely Bountiful Planet

2023 Turchin_End Times Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration

1974 CIA_A Study of Climatological Research as it Pertains to Intelligence Problems

1990 USNWC_Global Climate Change Implications for the United States Navy

1999 Greene_Military Implications of Global Warming

2003 Pittenger_Global Warming Could Have a Chilling Effect on the Military

2004 NIC_Mapping the Global Future 2020 Project

2008 Chaisson_Energy Ethics and the Far Future

2021 Crepel_Corporate strategy in the era of climatic emergency Are old recipes still viable

200X Hayes_Our Money is Safe, but the Planet Is Not: How the Carbon Bubble Will Cause Havoc for the Environment, but Not the Stock Market

200X Jamieson_Grappling for a Glimpse of the Future

200X Salt_Is the climate in crisis PPT

Discussion Focuses National Security Implications Climate Change, Jun 5 2017

1989 Gleick_The implications of global climatic changes for international security

1990 Tainter_The Collapse of Complex Societies

1999 AEPI_Factors Required for Successful Future Research in Decision Making

2003 Karas_Global Climate Change and International Security

2003 Schwartz_An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for National Security

2005 Keller_Avoiding dangerous anthropogenic information with the climate system

2005 Lorenzoni_Dangerous Climate Change the Role for Risk Research

2005 Poverty Infectious Disease and Environmental Degradation as Threats to Collective Security $$

2005 Shearer_Whether the weather - comments on an abrupt climate change scenario

2005 Smil_The Next 50 Years Unfolding Trends

2005 Sunstein_Irreversible and Catastrophic

2006 CFR_National security consequences of U.S. oil dependency

2006 Kurzweil_The Singularity is Near When humans transcend biology

2006 Sales_Future Thinking by Middle Managers A Neglected Necessity

2007 Brown_Climate as the new security threat: implications for Africa

2007 Brown_Climate change as the new security threat: implications for Africa $$

2007 Busby_Climate Change and National Security: An Agenda for Action

2007 Campbell_The Age of Consequences - The Foreign Policy Implications

2007 Chatham House_How climate change is pushing the boundaries of security

2007 CNA_National Security and the Threat of Climate Change #4

2007 CNA_National Security and the Threat of Climate Change PPT

2007 James_Climate Change, National Security and ethics

2007 Webb_Thinking the Worst The Pentagon Report (book chapter) $$

2007 Weber_How Globalization Went Bad $$

2007 WGBU_Climate change as a security risk

2008 Boslough_The Arctic as a Test Case for an Assessment of Climate Impacts on National Security

2008 Burke_Uncharted Waters - US Navy and Navigating Climate Change

2008 Campbell_Climate Cataclysm The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Climate Change

2008 Campbell_National Security and Climate in Perspective

2008 CNAS Clout and Climate Change Materials Generated from the War Game

2008 CNAS Clout and Climate Change War Game Participant Briefing Book

2008 Dupont_The Strategic Implications of Climate Change $$

2008 Fingar_National Intelligence Assessment on National Security Implications of CC to 2030

2008 Floyd_The Environmental Security Debate and its Significance for Climate Change $$

2008 GCI_Carbon Countdown

2008 IISD_The financial crisis and our response to climate change

2008 King_Factoring environmental security ussues into national security threat assessments - Dissertation

2008 Pataki_Confronting Climate Change A Strategy for U.S. Foreign Policy

2008 PIRC Climate Safety Report - In case of emergency

2008 Podesta_The Security Implications of Climate Change $$

2008 Pumphrey_Global Climate Change National Security Implications

2008 Raskin_World Lines - A Framework for Exploring Global Pathways

2008 Sandia_Tensions in Arctic Security

2008 Sandia_The Arctic as a Test Case for an Assessment of Climate Impacts on National Security

2008 Schellnhuber_Global warming Stop worrying start panicking

2008 Spratt_Climate Code Red The Case for a Sustainability Emergency

2008 Sunstein_Two Conceptions of Irreversible Environmental Harm

2008 Tombetta_Environmental security and climate change analysing the discourse $$

2008 U.S. Navy Arctic Roadmap

2009 Baer_A 350 ppm Emergency Pathway

2009 Boehringer_Energy Security - An impact assessment of the EU climate and energy package

2009 Burke Climate Change War Game Major Findings

2009 CNA_Powering America's Defense: Energy and Risks to National Security

2009 Cummings_A Guide to the Future of Strategy

2009 Dabelko_Planning for climate change The security communitys precautionary principles

2009 Hearings Climate change and the Arctic - New Frontiers of National Security

2009 Houck_Foresight: A Business Approach to Improving Forensic Science Services

2009 IISD_Climate change and security in Africa

2009 Inst Envtl Security_climate change and military - Copenhagen and beyond (video)

2009 Institute for Military Security_Climate Change and the Military - The State of the Debate

2009 Jones_Gaia bites back: Accelerated warming $$

2009 Maas_Regional Security Implications of Climate change

2009 Mabey_Developing a risk management approach to delivering climate security

2009 NIC Mexico the Caribbean and Central America Impact of Climate Change to 2030

2009 NIC_India Impact of Climate Change to 2030

2009 NIC_Russia Impact of Climate Change to 2030

2009 Scharmer_Theory U Leading from the Future as It Emerges

2009 Spencer_Climate and the Military - State of the Debate

2009 Youngblut_Climate Change Effects - Issues for International and US National Security

2010 Apocadocs_Humoring the horror of the converging emergencies

2010 Brauch Climate Change and Mediteranean Security

2010 Carmen Broadening Horizons: Climate Change and the US Armed Forces

2010 Chatham House_Shifting Bases Shifting Perils - security implicaitons of climate change

2010 DOD Quadrennial Defense Review Report

2010 Johnson_Climate change and the risk industry The multiplication of fear and value

2010 Kousky_Responding to Threats of Climate Change Mega-Catastrophes

2010 Matthew_Global Environmental Change and Human Security - Introduction

2010 Mollekleiv Towards 2020 The Sustainability Agenda

2010 Parthemore Fueling the Future Force: Preparing Dept of Defense for Post-Petroleum Era

2010 Parthemore Promoting the Dialogue: Climate Change and US Ground Forces

2010 Parthemore_Sustaining Security How Natural Resources Influence National Security

2010 Pew Renergizing America's Defense

2010 Rogers Lost in Translation Closing Gap Between Climate Change and National Security

2010 Romig_A Deeper Look at Climate Change and National Security

2010 Sherry_Climate Change and National Security A field map and analysis of funding opportunities

2010 U.S. Navy Climate Change Roadmap

2011 Anderson_Climate Change: Going Beyond Dangerous PPT

2011 Busby_Mapping and Modeling Climate Security Vulnerability Workshop Report

2011 Ceronsky_Checking the price tag on catastrophe The social cost of carbon under non-linear climate response (updated version)

2011 Cirdei_Climate change and environmental degradation Threats or challenges to human security $$

2011 Fitch_Slow Motion Disaster The Big Picture of Converging Effects of Climate Change $$

2011 Gemenne_Climate-induced population displacements in a 4◦C+ world

2011 IISS_The IISS Transatlantic Dialogue on Climate Change and Security

2011 IOM_Climate change Migration and Critical International Security Considerations

2011 Johnstone_Global warming and the Arab Spring $$

2011 King_Defense community perspectives on uncertainty and confidence judgments $$

2011 Mabey_Degrees of Risk -- Defining a Risk Management Framework for Climate Security

2011 Matthew_The Energy-Climate Complex: Is Climate Change a National Security Issue?

2011 McKinsey_Resource Revolution Meeting the World's Energy Materials Food Water Needs

2011 Miranda_On the forecasting of the challenging world future scenarios

2011 Nagel_Climate Change, Public Opinion, and the Military Security Complex

2011 NRC National Security Implications of Climate change for U.S. Naval Forces

2011 Spiegelhalter_Visualizing Uncertainty About the Future

2011 St. John_Applying Science to Assess Climate Risk

2011 Titley_Arctic Security Considerations and the U.S. Navys Roadmap for the Arctic

2011 White_Climate Change and Migration: Security and Borders in a Warming World

2011 Woodrow Wilson Center_A National Strategic Narrative

2011 Worldwide Emerging Environmental Issues for the Military

2012 American Security Project_Military Basing and Climate Change

2012 American Security Project_Part 1 - Climate Change and Security

2012 American Security Project_Part 2 - Climate Change and Global Security

2012 American Security Project_Part 3 - Climate Change and the Homeland

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2019 Spratt_Existential climate-related security risk A scenario approach

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2019 Spratt_Existential Climate-Related Security Risk A scenario approach

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