E - 2020 - 2030 Low Carbon Pathways
E - 2050 Emissions Pathways
E - Electric Sector Low Carbon Pathways
E - Land Use Mitigation Potentials
E - Non-Electric Emissions Scenarios
4-cell View of Transition Pathway and Physical Rissk
2006 Status quo projections of fossil fuel use to 2030
2007 Mitigation potentials by sector and region
2007 Stabilizing concentrations requires at least 30 GTs of reductions
2008 BAU and "stretch market belief" scenarios
2008 IDS knowledge services and impact pathways
2008 IDS knowledge services contribute to the change value chain
2008 IEA BAU projections of energy sector emissions and fuels
2008 In scenarios oil consumption peaks around 2020, gas 2025
2008 Looked at alternative scenarios for different targets
2008 Power sector transition pathways
2009 2050 Energy production by scenarios
2009 And requires total decarbonization by 2035-45
2009 Annex 1 and non Annex 1 pathways for 2 degrees
2009 Annex 1 and non Annex 1 pathways for 4 degrees
2009 Capital intensity by abatement measures
2009 Capital intensity vs. abatement cost
2009 Chance of exceeding 2 degrees high even with extreme assumptions
2009 Changes in mean and variance
2009 CO2 Prices under reference technology and advanced all technology
2009 Forestry emissions to 2100
2009 Impact of delaying action for 10 years
2009 Integrated implementation scenarios 2010 - 2030
2009 Key needs for regulation along the MACC curve
2009 Major categories of abatement opportunities
2009 Non-CO2 emissions to 2100
2009 Snapshot of world GHG emissions by sector, 2000
2010 Conviction scenario: Projects what we believe is likely pathway to 2020 based on current expectation0
2010 Cumulative and projected carbon emissions to 2050
2010 Emissions abatement pathways and economics
2010 What Determines CO2 concentrations
2011 4. In a "climate response" case, power generation mix shifts significantly
2011 Capital investment required under all three scenarios
2011 Energy sector employment under 2% investment initiatve
2011 Methane emissions to 2030 reference case
2011 Overview of the pathways considered for meeting a 2 degree target
2012 Optimal energy mix for 2 degree target from the IAM
2012 Pathways to the 2050 reductions
2012 Probabilistic Forecasts to 2100 based on new Representative Concentration Pathways
2012 Reductions wedges 2030 and 2050 by technology
2012 Swiss Re forecasts are pessimistic
2012 The pathway to 80% reductions in CA by 2050
2013Potential future fossil fuel emissions
2013 By 2030 Non-Annex 1 emissions will by themselves exceed the 2oC pathway
2013 Carbon price required to achieve EU targets varies widely
2013 Decarbonization pathway good for jobs
2013 Economic growth vs. energy growth to 2040
2013 Emissions are currently on a 4-6 degree C trajectory
2013 Energy demand by sector to 2040
2013 Forecasting global baseline CO2 emissions
2013 Global and U.S. natural gas supply to 2040
2013 Global energy mix to 2040
2013 Global fuel mix by decade
2013 Heavy duty transportation demand to 2040 by region
2013 Industrial energy demand to 2040
2013 International trade in oil and gas to 2040
2013 Light duty transportation demand by region and sector
2013 Low carbon pathway saves substantially against potential oil shock
2013 Not at all clear where the needed low-carbon investment will come from
2013 OECD and non-OECD electricity demand to 2040
2013 OECD and non-OECD energy demand to 2040
2013 Regional energy balances to 2040
2013 Residential energy intensity by region to 2040
2013 Residential/commercial energy demand and fuel source to 2040
2013 Role of oil and gas will increase to 2040
2013 Transportation energy demand by sector and region to 2040
2013 Transportation fuel mix to 2040
2013 Vehicle fleet by type and efficiency to 2040
2013 We can only burn 30% of proven reserves on 2oC pathway - massive stranded investments
2014 Another way of evaluating impact of targets is against the IPCC's cumulative emissions budgets
2014 Assumed future capacity additions
2014 Assumed reference case in RCP8.5 range
2014 Comparison of scenarios in primary energy and electricity
2014 Feasibility of alternative scenarios
2014 Impact of forecast reductions on 530-580 ppm window
2014 Projected emissions in 2030
2014 The current pathway to two degrees
2014 The historical CO2 sources and sinks
2014 The need for energy is continuing to grow, and experts agree on role of fossil fuels
2014 Two U.S. Emissions Reduction Pathways
2015 2050 Mixed Case Energy System
2015 Average electricity rate by scenario 2050
2015 Business as usual emission to 2040
2015 Change in regional per capita emissions
2015 Countries with emissions pledges
2015 CPP equivalent to a $30 carbon tax
2015 CPP saves $30 billion
2015 Cumulative spend across sectors to 2040
2015 Darwinism Curve with ($4) minimal carbon pricing
2015 Delaying policy is costly
2015 Dramatic reductions are more costly, but still cost-effective with externalities
2015 Emissions pathways with overlaid risk time horizons
2015 Fluorinated gases emissions to 2050
2015 Forecasted Deforestation Emissions to 2050
2015 High Renewable Case Transition
2015 How many years to peak coal, gas and oil use?
2015 Incremental energy costs under the scenarios
2015 Installed electric generating capacity in 2050
2015 Key pathway determinants
2015 Mixed case incremental energy costs to 2050
2015 Mixed case incremental household monthly costs
2015 Mixed Case Transition
2015 Most ambitious reduction scenarios for DDPP countries to 2050
2015 Near-term vs. longer-term economics
2015 Pathway determinants by scenario
2015 Per capita emissions and GDP intensity to 2050
2015 Scenario design principles -1
2015 Stock replacement opportunities between now and 2050
2015 The Energy Darwinism Curve for 2020
2015 Total CO2 emissions under the scenarios
2015 Total energy use under the scenarios
2015 US power mix will transform by 2040
2016 1.5 to 4.5 degrees C by 2100 with high degree of confidence
2016 Alternative 2 Degree pathways
2016 Alternative pathways of physical vs. transitions risks
2016 Alternative warming paths
2016 Challenges to the affordability of industry decarbonization
2016 Cumulative global CO2 emissions under alternative scenarios
2016 Current emissions scenarios and temperatures
2016 Energy emissions based on current and ambitious policy
2016 Energy transitions past and future
2016 Estimated emissions under various post-COP21 scenarios
2016 GHG emissions and emissions pathways
2016 How large could the energy system grow?
2016 Implicit vs. explicit carbon pricing
2016 Increase in resource use to 2025 and 2040
2016 Low carbon economy transition pathways
2016 Net zero emissions energy mix 2100
2016 Per capita CO2 emissions tin 2014, and cumulatively
2016 Reference case U.S. emissions to 2040
2016 Role of the CPP in future emissions reductions
2016 SCC values in 2020 and 2100 for Baseline and 2oC pathways
2016 Scenarios pathways in the study
2016 Sector emissions vs. value added
2016 Sources of energy-related CO2 emissions
2016 The evolution of primary energy consumption by individuals
2016 The future of transport energy
2016 The various forms of carbon capture and storage
2016 World total primary energy supply 1971-2012
2017 2oC Pathway scenarios
2017 2016 U.S. emissions 18% lower than forecast in 2008
2017 Average regional fuel economy to 2040
2017 Average U.S. CO2 abatement costs as of 2016
2017 Carbon pricing corridor compared to other pathways to a 2oC scenario
2017 CO2 emission pathways for the power sector for a 2oC scenario
2017 Electricity demand growth to 2040
2017 Electricity generation by region and fuel to 2040
2017 Electricity sources to 2040
2017 Energy supply to 2040
2017 Evolution of CO2 intensity by region to 2040
2017 Exxon forecasts 0.7% per year increase in global fuel demand in 2040
2017 Forecast U.S. emissions under current 2016 policy
2017 Forecast U.S. emissions with energy and economic uncertainty
2017 Global consumptions and emissions by fuel
2017 Global energy CO2 emissions to 2040 by region
2017 Global energy demand to 2040 by sector and fuel
2017 Global energy mix shifts to 2040
2017 Global nuclear, wind, solar to 2040
2017 Global transportation demand to 2040 by sector
2017 Global transportation fleet to 2040
2017 Household electricity by region to 2040
2017 Industrial energy demand to 2040
2017 Middle class expansion to 2030
2017 Regional gas demand to 2040
2017 Rising prosperity increases air conditioning demand
2017 Rising prosperity raises chemicals demand
2017 Summarizing the Pathways
2017 U.S. car sales by size to 2040
2018 From climate hazards to financial performance risk pathways
2018 Global emissions modeling pathways
2018 Global emissions pathways
2018 Pathways and cumulative emissions
2019 Possible CO2 emissions pathways and temperatures
2019 The emissions budget associated with different temperature targets
2021 CO2 Emissions to 2050
2021 Global GHG emission pathways consistent with Paris Agreement targets
Direct and indirect pathways for influencing livestock diseases
Emissions Targets vs. 2oC Pathway
Energy Use Targets vs. 2oC Pathway
Graphical pathway for adaptation engagement
Growth in installed solar capacity
Likely temperatures associated with alternative emissions pathways
Multiple pathways for solar fuels
Optimal emissions and temperature pathways
Overview of technology scenarios considered
2014Projections of global energy consumption
Relating emissions pathway to temperature probabilities
Renewable Energy Targets vs. 2oC Pathway
Sectoral emissions under 450 ppm fulltech vs no CCS scenarios
Several pathways by which CG could manifest
Shell forecast of CO2 emissions to 2100 under alternative scenarios
The economic case for preparedness - NYC wastewater
The IPCC AR5 Concentration Pathways
The pathway lenses in graphical form
Transportation energy by scenario
Very substantial emissions reductions are possible
What's the fossil fuel consumption record look like?
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report scenarios
E - Low Carbon Transition Knowledgebase
I:BoundingFutureEmissions
2018/2 Funding the Fight Against Climate Change
E - Comparing/Evaluating Low Carbon Studies
E - 100% Renewable Transition
E - Drivers of Low Carbon Transition
E - Electrification of the Energy System
E - Low Carbon Transition Barriers
E - Low Carbon Transition Costs
E - Low Carbon Transition Methodologies
E - Low Carbon Transition Policy
E - Low Carbon Transition Recommendations
E - Low Carbon Winners and Losers
E - Private Sector Role in LCT
E - Speed of Technology Diffusion
E - Systemic Climate Risk
E - Temperature Scenarios and Forecasts
1.5oC - 2oC Comparing the implications
4oC - The estimated range of sea level rise impacts
87% of emissions from sectors in the Scale or Deploy stage
2007 Anticipated emissions from forests to 2100
2007 What's Different? No Silver Bullets
2008 Consumers are not changing their behavior
2008 Sustainable level of emissions suggests a 90% drop in U.S. emissions
2008 Technology costs have declined rapidly
2008 We have historically over-estimated the costs of acting
2010 Implementing the three strategies
2010 Per capita emissions vs. what is "sustainable" for 2oC
2011 Scenario land use vs. other scenario
2012 Evolution of transport sector technologies now to 2030
2012 The key metrics for 2050 reductions
2012 Transitions in energy use patterns 1850-2010
2014 Global proportion of low-carbon energy
2014 Rate of growth of wind and solar
2014 Wind deployment way up
2015 13. Emissions would fall dramatically
2015 Emissions by source and sector
2015 Many scenarios for reaching 80-100% renewables
2016 A rapid growth in infrastructure initiatives
2016 Annual land use gain/loss 1990 - 2015
2016 Electricity demand from EVs will soar
2016 Historical forest expansion compared to MCS benchmark5
2016 Net electricity generation to 2050
2016 What outcomes are infrastructure initiatives focused on
2017 1 Million Additional Jobs by 2050
2017 2017 Average annual change in investment vs. fuel expenditures to 2050
2017 A different view of the future
2017 A More Detailed Look at the 9 Regions
2017 A radically different view of the future
2017 Carbon prices vs SCC estimates around the world
2017 Coal consumption vs. Peabody share price
2017 Electric car diffusion
2017 Implications of delaying the peak in global emissions
2017 Increasing oil use efficiency
2017 Models are assuming a lot of negative emissions
2017 NCS as fraction of needed reductions by 2030, 37% through 2030, 20% through 2050, and 9% through 2100
2017 Total installed capacity as multiple of peak demand
2017 Traditional oil forecasts
2017 We are currently doubling renewable energy every 5.4 years, and that could continue
2020 100% Solar, Wind, and Batteries is Just the Beginning
2020 100% Solar, Wind, and Batteries is Possible
2020 100% Solar, Wind, and Batteries is the Cheapest System by 2030
2020 Emissions reductions by sector required to meet 2oC target
2021 8 technologies can generate 90% reductions by 2035
2021 Eight global supply chains account for more than 50% of annual greenhouse gas emissions
2021 Price markup for products with net zero supply chains
2021 Sector disruptions will allow ecological restoration
2021 The cost of abating emissions by supply chain
2021 Understanding disruption
2021 Updated climate change tipping point
Defining an energy transition
Emissions mitigation by sector - Sensible Scenarios
Fossil fuels will remain dominant in every scenario
Four steps would help align all the infrastructure initiatives
How 24 100% renewable energy scenarios scored
How infrastructure initiatives target barriers to
RethinkX Accelerated Disruption Scenario
RethinkX Core Disruption Scenario
RethinkX Delayed Disruption Scenario
RethinkX model - active reforestation by biome
RethinkX model - emissions mitigation by sub-sector - 1
RethinkX model - emissions mitigation by sub-sector - 2
RethinkX model - emissions mitigation by sub-sector - 3
RethinkX model - emissions mitigation by sub-sector - 4
RethinkX model - passive reforestation by biome
Sector reductions to 2035 by readiness stage - Sensible Scenario
Sectoral reductions by 2035 - Sensible Scenario
The causal feedback loop of disruption
The disruption of energy to date
The disruption of transportation to date
The pending disruption of the food sector
Total emissions under 4 political constrain scenarios
Welfare gain under 4 political constrain scenarios
Welfare under four political constraint scenarios
Which match up with flexibility needs in different ways
Analysis is intended to be very conservative
Causal feedback loops drive disruption
Conventional thinking has failed us - underestimating climate change and proposing band-aids
Full decarbonization would lead to an increase of no more than 4% in end consumer prices
Future anthropogenic forcing
Main findings in the report
Misconceptions of conventional analysis
Prepare for crash deployment of low carbon technologies
RethinkX has been more accurate than conventional analysts
Societal choices matter in promoting net zero emissions
The reliability of global economic models
The three stages of technology readiness
We can achieve net zero before 2040 and save trillions of dollars
We tend to underestimate the pace of change when it happens
We're lousy at predicting energy futures
We’ve done a poor job of forecasting disruption to date
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Headings - Extracted Materials
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