The Climate Web | E - Worst Case Climate Change

E - Worst Case Climate Change

4.5oC - Probability of lethal heat stress

4.5oC - Probability of nightime survivability problems at different global temperatures

2015 Graphical representation of worst-case scenarios for 2016 and 2026 (1)

2021 Plausible worst-case scenario

No sensible risk management framework should ignore worst case scenarios

Plausible worst-case agricultural production scenario

Responding to fire risks: unlikely but we buy fire insurance

3. This worst-case estimate translates into a 0.05 impact on annual economic growth to 2090

Consider best, worst and median case scenarios of adaptation and mitigation

How confident should we be that's the worst case?

IF the worst-case economics of mitigation mean economic growth of 95% instead of 100%, doesn't it make sense?

Plausible worst case for water stress by 2050 in terms of affected population

Plausible worst case impacts on drought in 2050

Plausible worst case increase in # of people flooding in 2050

The whole piece puts together a narrative that characterizes worst case as probable case

The worst case scenario is "Venus"

We do it with insurance and many other things, where worst case scenarios are useful

Risks - Societal TOC

Worst Case Climate Change TOC

E - Forecasted Climate Impacts

E - Futures and Foresight Top Level

I:WorstCaseClimateChange (Deep Dive)

2014 CISL_IPCC AR5 - Carbon crossroads and the pathway to two degrees - Infographic

Climate change infographic reveals the four scenarios awaiting humanity

Infographic - Perspective on Time

Infographic - Timeline of the far future

Infographic The Coral Triangle

Infographic: Choose your future 4 emissions pathways

Resource stress – Future State 2030

I:Premortems

I:1.5oCTarget

I:AbruptClimateChange

I:AcceleratedIceFreeArctic

I:AcceleratingClimateChange

I:AdaptationLimits

I:BadLuckwithLongTailRiskEvents

I:BlackSwansofClimateChange

I:BrandRisk

I:BusinessActingTooEarlyvsTooLate

I:BusinessDisruptionasBusinessRisk

I:CarbonPricingfor2oC

I:ChangingReturnPeriods

I:ClimateasThreatMultiplier

I:ClimateDoubt

I:ClimateFeedbacks

I:ClimateLiability

I:ClimatePolicyasBusinessRisk

I:ClimateRiskMateriality

I:ClimateSensitivityUnderestimated

I:ClimateUncertaintyasRisk

I:CloudRelatedWarmingUnderestimated

I:ConflictOverArcticResources

I:DangerousClimateChange (Deep Dive)

I:DeepAdaptation (Deep Dive)

I:DivestmentasMaterial

I:Economic/SocialCollapseNarrative

I:EmissionsIntensityasInvestmentRisk

I:EnvironmentalMigrants

I:ExceedanceCurves

I:FoodSystemShocks

I:IndirectImpactsasBusinessRisk

I:InevitablePolicyResponse

I:InvestorResponseasBusinessRisk

I:IPCCUnderestimationofRisk

I:LandUseandOceanCO2SinksSaturate

I:Litigation/LiabilityasBusinessRisk

I:LowCarbonTransitionasInvestmentRisk

I:MarketTransformationasBusinessRisk

I:OperationalRisk

I:PermafrostMethaneReleasesUnderestimated

I:PhysicalImpactsasBusinessRisk

I:PlanetaryBoundaries (Deep Dive)

I:PoliticalPolarization

I:RiskDisclosureasBusinessRisk

I:RunawayClimateChange

I:SCCasCarbonPrice

I:ScenarioPlanningGeneral (Deep Dive)

I:SocialLicensetoOperateasBusinessRisk

I:SocietalCollapse

I:SupplyChainDisruptionasBusinessRisk

I:SystemicClimateRisk (Deep Dive)

I:SystemicRiskasBusinessRisk

I:SystemicRiskMateriality

I:UnacceptableClimateChange

I:UncertaintyasRisk

I:UnderestimatedSLR

I:UnderseaMethaneReleasesUnderestimated

I:UnknownUnknownsofClimateChange

S - 1.5oC Target

S - 1.5 vs 2.0 Degrees

S - 100% Renewable Energy Transition

S - Abrupt Climate Change

S - Catastrophic Risk Decision-Making

S - Climate Change Fingerprint to Date

S - Climate Change Systemic Risk

S - Climate Change Tipping Points

S - Climate Emergency Sources

S - Climate Engineering Sources

S - Climate Sensitivity

S - Climate Uncertainties Unknowns

S - Dangerous Climate Impacts

S - Decision-making Under Uncertainty

S - Economic Futures

S - Extreme Event Impacts

S - Fat and Long Tail Risks of Climate Change

S - Human Extinction

S - Impact Attribution

S - Probabilistic Decision-Making

S - Societal Futures

S - Systemic Risk

S - Worst Case Climate Change

N - 1.5oC Target

N - 100% Renewable Future

N - Accelerating/Worsening Climate Change

N - Changing Climate Probabilities

N - Climate Change Tipping Points

N - Climate Emergency

N - Climate Sensitivity

N - Extreme Events

N - Fat and Long Tail Risks From Climate Change

N - Human Extinction

N - IPCC 1.5 Degrees Report

N - Limits to Growth

N - Systemic Climate Risk

N - Worst Case Climate Change

T - Climate Emergency Networks

T - Extreme Events Network

T - Risk Assessment

T - Systemic Risk

V - Abrupt Change/Climate Disruption

V - Climate Emergency

V - Extreme Events

V - Systemic Climate Risk

2010 Gardner_Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless and You Can do Better

E - 1.5 Degree Target

E - 1 Degree 350 ppm Scenario

E - 2 Degree 450 PPM Pathway

E - 3-4 Degree Scenario

E - 100% Renewable Transition

E - 2020 - 2030 Low Carbon Pathways

E - 2050 Emissions Pathways

E - Carbon Price Forecasts

E - Changing Probability Distributions

E - Changing Return Periods

E - Climate Change Tipping Points

E - Climate Emergency Extracts

E - Climate Feedbacks

E - Climate Modeling and Forecasting

E - Climate Sensitivity

E - Economic Forecasting

E - Extreme Event Impacts

E - Food Security Impacts

E - Forecasting How To

E - Future Scenarios

E - Limits to Growth

E - Long-Term Thinking

E - Scenario Planning

E - Security and Climate

E - Super-Forecasting

E - Systemic Climate Risk

E - Systemic Risk

E - Underestimating Climate Risks

Probable Futures Dynamic Warming Maps

1919 US oil fields will reach maximum production within the next 2 to 5 years

1947 Sufficient oil cannot be found in the United States according to the State Department

1970 The US will remain self-sufficient, and oil prices will remain low

1978 According to the IEA, there is risk of a serious energy crisis in the middle to late 80's

0oC - 5oC biological systems vulnerability

0oC to 6oC - Probability of sleeping problems and different global temperature thresholds

0oC-6oC - Probability of individuals encountering problems with playing sports at different global temperatures

1900-2100 (2008) Change in daily heavy precipitation events, with uncertainty

1900-2100 (2008) Increase in % of warm nights for North America, with uncertainty

1900-2100 (2010) Changes in permafrost coverage to 2100

1900-2100 (2012) Estimated ocean acidification under alternative emissions scenarios

1980-2040 (2009) Decreasing habitat for coldwater fish

1980-2100 (2014) North Hemisphere near-surface permafrost area to 2100

1980-2100 (2014) Northern Hemisphere snow cover change to 2100

1980-2100 (2014) Number of days over 95o (F) RCP 8.5 Median and 1 in 20 chance

1980-2100 (2015) Change in after number of days over 95 degrees (F) Median and 1 in 20 chance estimates

2000-2050 (2012) Annual probability of loss due to hurricanes for Miami-Dade Region

2009 Climate in peril, Africa impacts

2009 Climate in peril, Asia impacts

2009 Climate in peril, Australia and New Zealand

2009 Climate in peril, Europe

2009 Climate in peril, Latin America

2009 Climate in peril, North America

2009 Long term precipitation change vs. observed droughts

2009 Potential climate change feedback loops

2010 1% Exceedance - High value water availability

2010 1% Exceedance - Water for Mining

2010 10% Exceedance - High value water availability

2010 10% Exceedance - Water for mining

2010 50% exceedance - High value water availability

2010 50% Exceedance - Water for Mining

2010 Annualized U.S. loss trend - water impacts

2010 National employment impacts

2011 Acidification implications vary widely by species

2011 Anticipated changes in stream-flow in 2050

2011 Projected changes in hydropower generation to 2050

2011 U.S. Temperature change

2012 Models clearly project changes in heat extreme return periods (see NA detail)

2012 Models clearly project precipitation extreme impact return periods over time (see NA detail)

2012 Our ability to predict the future is poor

2013 A simplistic look at a climate change cost-benefit analysis, suggesting an optimum of 2.3 degrees.

2013 The result is to act strenuously to avoid the tipping point.

2014/3 Heavy downpours more intense, frequent in a warmer world

2014 Annual change in soil moisture to 2100

2014 Change at the county level

2014 Change in dangerous days by scenarios and 2100 vs. 2200

2014 Change in high-risk sectors by scenario and time-frame

2014 Change in national yield for crops by time and scenario (assuming NO CO2 fertilization)

2014 Change in property crime by county

2014 Change in violent crime by county

2014 Frequency of labor supply losses will increase significantly

2014 Number of dangerous days based on Humid Stroke Index

2014 Projected changes in frost-free season length by scenario

2014 Projected changes in lyme disease threat

2014 U.S. change in precipitation by season

2015 Global probability of exceeding 99th extremes with temperature increase

2016 Climate change impact stress map

2016 Forest NPP with temperature change

2016 Met Office_Global impacts of a warming world

Headings - Extracted Materials

E - Worst Case Climate Change

Extracted Graphics | Extracted Ideas

Under-Estimating Climate Risk