Headings - Extracted Materials
E - SCC Social Cost of Carbon
Extracted Graphics | Extracted Ideas
E - A Negative SCC
E - Implications of Discounting Future Damages
E - Integrated Assessment Modeling
E - Risks of SCC Reliance
E - SCC as Carbon Price
E - SCC Critiques
E - UCC Ultimate Cost of Carbon
How could the SCC be deployed?
2018/10 New York sues ExxonMobil for falsely claiming use of an internal price on carbon, which was portrayed as managing future regulatory risk
2010 Confidence Interval Temperature Changes For Alternative Models
2010 Final analysis - SCC values at alternative discounts, and 95% percentile
2010 GDP Impacts of up to 4 C Change for Multiple Models
2010 GDP Impacts of up to 10 C Change For Multiple Models
2011 The many steps associated with estimating extreme event damages
2013 SCC models are commonly characterized by a continued growth trajectory, regardless of climate change
2013 There is no such thing as one number for the SCC
2013 What do all of the 2010 IAMs estimate at a 3% discount rate
2015 The non-climate benefits and costs of CO2
2016 Although a reliability-based shadow price gives very different results
2016 Box plots for economic damages and social cost of carbon
2016 But economic value of ocean services really very small against GDP
2016 Comparing DICE16 SCC to other estimates
2016 Impact of WAIS collapse by 2200 modest in terms of suggested SCC
2016 Impact of WAIS collapse by 2200 modest in terms of suggested SCC
2016 Range of federal SCC estimates
2016 SCC Estimate by Discount Rate
2016 SCC Estimate in Table Form
2016 SCC values in 2020 and 2100 for Baseline and 2oC pathways
2016 Social cost of carbon estimates based on DICE 16
2017 Carbon prices vs SCC estimates around the world
2017 Framework for Estimating the SCC
2017 Impact of discount rate over the long term
2017 Incremental SCC associated with emitting 3.7 GTs CO2 in 2020
2017 SCC vs shadow price: implicit vs explicit valuation of climate change damages
2017 The climate module as incorporated into the SCC
2018 Estimates of global SCC at different discount rates 2015-2050
2020 Estimating the NPV of income shock resulting from climate change
2021 Current IAMs do not reflect well-developed climate science
2021 Current SCC is behind frontier science
2021 Current US SCC used to justify rollback of fuel economy standards
2021 Distribution of global consumption per capital in 2100 w and w/o tipping points
2021 Recommendations for updating the U.S. SCC
2021 Seven ingredients for calculating the SCC
2021 The impact of including tipping points on estimated SCC
Distribution of global consumption per capital in 2050 w and w/o tipping points
Distribution of the % change in SCC due to tipping points
Estimated probability density function for a 3% SCC
Estimates of SCC in 2010
Revised 2013 Social Cost of CO2, 2010-2050 ($2007)
The causal change inferred by the SCC
The social cost of carbon emissions
Took future GDP/ton emissions divided by SCC to get benefit cost ratio
USG SCC estimates in 2010 and 2013, based on 150,000 model runs
At the end of the day these economic discussions run into an ethical brick wall
Biden administration should immediately update the SCC by returning to the 2013 IWG’s approach
Calculate an expected SCC increase of 43% due to tipping points
How confident are we in SCC estimates?
How did the SCC factor into estimating the benefits of new microwave standby power standards?
Impose the social cost of carbon on extraction of fossil fuels from public lands
LW Webinar - Continued Focus on Social Cost of Carbon Estimates
New guidelines may increase mandated mitigation by 60 percent
Social Cost of Carbon Special Materials
The machinery is being constructed to impose a carbon tax through the back door
The SCC in economic decision-making
Three problems with an SCC value
Tipping points have significant implications for thinking about SCC
Trusting the political process for a "scientific solution" is unscientific
What decisions could the SCC significantly affect?
What is the current SCC value?
What limitations were identified in the 2010 SCC estimates?
Why does risk management not rely on "expected" values?
Social Cost of Carbon TOC
I - SCCandtheSternReport
I - SCCasCarbonPrice
I - SCCasRiskManagement
I - SCCCritiques
I - SCCDeployment
I - SCCIncorporationofUncertainty
I - SCCLimits
I - UltimateCostofCarbon
S - Intergenerational Decisionmaking
S - Economic Discounting
S - Evaluating SCC Estimates
S - Federal SCC Determination
I - USGovernmentSCC
S - IAMs Integrated Assessment Models
S - SCC and Risk Adversity
Topical Websites, Blogs, FB Home Pages
V - SCC Social Cost of Carbon
N - SCC Social Cost of Carbon News
N - The Right SCC?
T - SCC Networks
T - Social Cost of Carbon Individuals
N - SCC Risk Averse
N - SCC Introduction
N - SCC in Litigation
S - SCC in Litigation
S - SCC in Policy
S - SCC Social Cost of Carbon
S - SCC Applications
S - SCC Critiques
S - SCC Estimates
S - SCC Uncertainties
N - Economic Discounting
N - SCC Applications
N - SCC Critiques
S - Quantifying Economic Impacts
S - Sectoral Social Costs
E - SCC Social Cost of Carbon
E - Economics Top Level
2015 Infographic - beef subsidies in Brazil
A wide range of climate sensitivity estimates
All the critical components of a 3.0 infrastructure are experiencing plunging exponential cost curves, creating a virtuous cycle.
An economic approach to climate change is a dead end
Interactive Graphic - Farming and the Green economy
2001 Economics costs of climate change up to 6^o C
2006 Forecasting the cost of future climate change mitigation
2006 The optimal amount of climate change mitigation in a given time period
Business action and climate capitalism has been proven a dead end
2007 Estimated geographical impacts of 2.5 and 6 degrees C of warming
2008 Nuclear is the cheapest option if we price carbon
2009 Conventional vs. expansive estimate of climate change impact on GDP
2009 How discount rates affect different adaptation measures
2010 Annualized U.S. loss trend - water impacts
2010 Discounted U.S. damages (direct water supply)
2010 Economics of climate change in Chicago by 2070-2099
2010 National employment impacts
2010 Second order uncertainty is the uncertainty in the uncertainty
2010 Welfare probabilities shown against $50 and $500 carbon taxes
CBO doesn't know where non-captured impacts will be net positive or negative
CBO's estimates primarily driven by temperature and precipitation impacts
It is hard to see warming being reduced to less than 3oC without geoengineering
Some economic analysis - e.g. hurricanes in NYC, suggests very high costs of CC
Some economists argue that addressing GHG emissions will be beneficial on net
The bottom line is that the probability of catastrophic outcomes is increasing
The challenge of CC cost-benefit analysis
2011 Delayed climate policy could cost $8 trillion by 2030
2011 Forecasts in figure form - shaded area showing range of legislative proposals
2011 Potential per capita GDP costs of climate change to 2200
2011 The difficult of quantifying ecosystem costs
2011 There is big uncertainty about forecasted prices even given probram design
2014 If the forecasted targets are achieved through P&Ms or targets, what's the cost? (CO2eq)
The Stern Review framed climate change as a question of risk management
Thinking of climate as a probability distribution
U.S. and global economy may be only 16% efficient
Valuing climate risks does not generate a good measure of risks
2013 Economic losses related to natural catastrophes
2013 Forecasting global baseline CO2 emissions
2013 Only a relatively small (and declining) part of the U.S. economy is really vulnerable to climate change.
2013 With limited participation number goes to 4 degrees.
2014 Combined direct impact costs vs. integrated costs
2014 Costs of CO2 mitigation
2014 Direct costs and benefits by state, historical hurricane, market mortality
2014 Direct costs and benefits by state, projected hurricane, VSL mortality cost
The projection is subject to a great deal of uncertainty
What if the economic question is phrased differently?
2014 Per capita county direct costs from change in energy costs
2014 Per capita direct costs by county distribution
2014 Per capita increase in average annual storm damages due to SLR
2014 Per capita increase in state coastal damages due to SLR alone
2014 Per capita increase in state coastal damages due to SLR and potential hurricane activity change
2014 Per capita state cost increases from crime
2014 State level per capita direct costs
2014 State level per capita direct costs
2015/8 Limiting climate change can save $1.8 Trillion in fuel spend, and $100 Trillion in damages
2015 9. But implications differ by sector, as shown here.
Economic models struggle to quantify potentially catastrophic outcomes
Economic Opportunities and Jobs
Estimates of the economic implications of climate tend tend to be modest
Highlights of $16 Trillion Investment
2014 Per capita county-level labor productivity impacts
2015 14. But costs are higher, unless you factor in climate and health savings
2015 Action scenario
2015 And will continue to fall
2015 And wind and solar costs are evolving quickly
2015 Annual electricity production and fossil fuel role to 2040
2015 Economic impact of climate change on the world
2015 Inaction scenario
2015 Net and cumulative incremental costs of the action scenario
2015 REDD Finance vs. agricultural and biofuels subsidies in Brazil and Indonesia
2015 The relative economics of offsets
2015 Value of potentially unburnable carbon
Is cost-benefit analysis even the right tool?
2015 Changes in energy spend by scenario
2015 Comparing Citi and IEA solar and wind deployment
2016 Estimated cost of natural disasters of 2012 in U.S.
E - Mitigation Potentials by Cost
2016 Mapping GHG productivity along value chains
2016 Mapping GHG productivity along value chains
2016 Sector emissions vs. value added
2016 Sectors are affected differently by climate change
2017 17 estimates of the GDP impact of climate change plotted as a least squares - 5 to 95% confidence interval
2017 Billion-Dollar Weather
2017 Recent cost trends for selected technologies
2017 Technology will create opportunities for energy savings and resource productivity
2020 CBO's projections over different time periods
2020 Charting the CBO's methodology
2020 Comparing CBO estimates to two other studies
2020 Estimated cost of an HVDC system
2020 Estimated Costs and Benefits of Infrastructure 3.0
2020 Estimates of economic damage to 2100
2020 HVDC Capital and Maintenance costs by phase
2020 North America’s average cost of energy between 2009 and 2017
2020 Potential new jobs based on payback and interest rate
2020 The overall impact of climate change to 2050
2020 U.S. energy productivity 1950-2019
2021 Billion dollar disasters 1980 - 2020
2030 (2017) Climate change could raise extreme poverty significantly
2100 (2014) Change in per capita direct energy expenditure by state for RCP 8.5 scenario
2100 (2014) Per capita state-level direct costs from increasing mortality under RCP 8.5 scenario
A lot more maritime reductions available by 2030
Alternative fittings of the line to the data
And huge questions about be raised about the entire discounting approach
Attractive adaptation options can mitigate risk increases
Change in thermoelectric power output 2020s and 2050s (no adaptaiton)
2015 Infographic - timber subsidies Indonesia
2015 Infographic palm oil subsidies in Indonesi
2015 Infographic soy subsidies in Brazil
Infographic - Disastrous Spending Federal disaster relief
Infographic - How Much Does Solar Power Cost?
Infographic - Natural Capital
Infographic - Putting the worlds money supply into perspective
Infographic - the costs of climate change
Infographic - The value of the Great Barrier Reef to Australia
Infographic - Why global carbon emissions fell in 2014
Infographic Disaster Risk Finance: Protecting Livelihoods and Developme
E - Technology Economics
Best estimate economics across control technologies and one technology combination, 100% in region
But with inefficiency and discounting, a very different number - 3.8 degrees.
Case study of 37 forecasted energy impacts
CCS costs vs other technologies
Change in hydropower output 2020s and 2050s (no adaptation)
Change in maximum catch potential 2050s
Declining EV battery costs
Confidence in climate change health impacts
Costs of weather and climate natural disasters
Country-level income projections with and without climate change
Current Impacts - Human health
Decreasing milk production
Decreasing wine grape quality
E - Adaptation Economics
E - Alternative Economics
E - Carbon Pricing Extracts
E - Climate and Economic Growth
E - Climate Opportunities
Economic analysis makes clear that THE economic alternative is to reduce coal use.
Economic benefits of significantly reducing emissions
Economic effects reported in American Climate Prospectus Study
Estimated cost of adapting to sea level rise, 2100
Estimates of welfare loss due to dlimate change in 16 studies
Globally costs depend significantly on how widespread participation is.
Expected hurricane losses
Expected losses across scenarios
Expected losses across the scenarios
Expected losses by asset type
Expected losses under scenarios
Forecast effect of temperature changes on regional economies
G - Adaptation Economics
Global economic impacts of CC on Port revenues
Global water change impact on hydropower and thermoelectric power to 2100
E - Cost Benefit Analysis
Graphic - How big a change are we talking about?
Impacts of climate change on risk capital requirements
Internalizing Externalities
Mapping global GHG productivity along value chains
Most significantly affected states in population, income
Multiple models have to be linked to estimate economic impacts
One estimate suggests quantified economic costs doubles by 2040
Our normal approach to time preference doesn't work
Overall CC costs in 2030 compared to baseline
Overall CC costs in 2050 compared to baseline
E - Impact Specific Economics
E - Low Carbon Transition Costs
E - MACC Curves
E - Mitigation Economics
How much can you save switching to solar?
Overcall CC costs in 2100 compared to baseline
Power capacity and substation capacities vary with temperature
Power demands in India significantly affected by CC
E - GDP Scenarios
Powerplants will face reductions in usable capacity
E - Extreme Event Costs
PV could have a significant impact on economics of utilties
E - Economic Forecasting
E - Economic Modeling
E - Economic Policymaking
E - Economic thinking as part of climate problem
E - Ecosystem Services
Renewable energy electricity costs are falling
Significant maritime reductions are available today
Sectoral interpolated (1-99% CI) risks
So many of the emissions reductions in shipping are profitable, but they won't happen
Solar Parity Map
Subsidies of more than $1 trillion/year support low resource prices
Summary of potential costs - increasing 4x to 2080
Survey of levelized cost of energy studies
The impact of potential increased hurricane activity
The impacts we're dealing with aren't manageable and at the margin
The middle class
The problem of timing, with much of the benefit coming after 2050.
200X The relative economics of solar energy
The role of cost-benefit in evaluating adaptation measures
The cost-benefit approach to adaptation
The three economies
There are the economic externalities
Value of wetland services
What's the right discount rate?
E - SCC Social Cost of Carbon
E - Societal Economics
2001 Economics costs of climate change up to 6^o C
2011 Capital investment required under all three scenarios
2011 Commodity price increases since 2000 have erased the gains of the last century
Cost Benefit Analysis and the Social Cost of Carbon
The economics of climate change
International agreements support economic system are at risk
E - SCC Social Cost of Carbon
I - SCCinLitigation
I - SCCSocialCostofCarbon (Deep Dive)
