E - SCC Social Cost of Carbon
E - Implications of Discounting Future Damages
E - Integrated Assessment Modeling
E - Risks of SCC Reliance
E - UCC Ultimate Cost of Carbon
How could the SCC be deployed?
2018/10 New York sues ExxonMobil for falsely claiming use of an internal price on carbon, which was portrayed as managing future regulatory risk
2022 New GIVE model estimates mean 3% SCC at $185
2010 Confidence Interval Temperature Changes For Alternative Models
2010 Final analysis - SCC values at alternative discounts, and 95% percentile
2010 GDP Impacts of up to 4 C Change for Multiple Models
2010 GDP Impacts of up to 10 C Change For Multiple Models
2011 The many steps associated with estimating extreme event damages
2013 SCC models are commonly characterized by a continued growth trajectory, regardless of climate change
2013 There is no such thing as one number for the SCC
2013 What do all of the 2010 IAMs estimate at a 3% discount rate
2015 The non-climate benefits and costs of CO2
2016 Although a reliability-based shadow price gives very different results
2016 Box plots for economic damages and social cost of carbon
2016 But economic value of ocean services really very small against GDP
2016 Comparing DICE16 SCC to other estimates
2016 Impact of WAIS collapse by 2200 modest in terms of suggested SCC
2016 Impact of WAIS collapse by 2200 modest in terms of suggested SCC
2016 Range of federal SCC estimates
2016 SCC Estimate by Discount Rate
2016 SCC Estimate in Table Form
2016 SCC values in 2020 and 2100 for Baseline and 2oC pathways
2016 Social cost of carbon estimates based on DICE 16
2017 Carbon prices vs SCC estimates around the world
2017 Framework for Estimating the SCC
2017 Impact of discount rate over the long term
2017 Incremental SCC associated with emitting 3.7 GTs CO2 in 2020
2017 SCC vs shadow price: implicit vs explicit valuation of climate change damages
2017 The climate module as incorporated into the SCC
2018 Estimates of global SCC at different discount rates 2015-2050
2020 Estimating the NPV of income shock resulting from climate change
2021 Current IAMs do not reflect well-developed climate science
2021 Current SCC is behind frontier science
2021 Current US SCC used to justify rollback of fuel economy standards
2021 Distribution of global consumption per capital in 2100 w and w/o tipping points
2021 Recommendations for updating the U.S. SCC
2021 Seven ingredients for calculating the SCC
2021 The impact of including tipping points on estimated SCC
2022 Average Values for the Social Cost of Carbon Vary Among Different Models and Inputs
2022 Current SCC estimates
2022 How the new model compares to DICE 2016 SCC estimate
2022 RFF’s SocioEconomic Scenario Variables
2022 SCC distributions at different interest rates
2022 Scope of damages - 1
2022 Scope of damages - 2
2022 Scope of damages incorporated into SCC
2022 sectoral sub-SCC values
2022 Social Cost of Carbon Values, with Uncertainty Distribution
Distribution of global consumption per capital in 2050 w and w/o tipping points
Distribution of the % change in SCC due to tipping points
Estimated probability density function for a 3% SCC
Revised 2013 Social Cost of CO2, 2010-2050 ($2007)
The causal change inferred by the SCC
The social cost of carbon emissions
Took future GDP/ton emissions divided by SCC to get benefit cost ratio
USG SCC estimates in 2010 and 2013, based on 150,000 model runs
A lot of impacts are still missing from the new model
At the end of the day these economic discussions run into an ethical brick wall
Biden administration should immediately update the SCC by returning to the 2013 IWG’s approach
Biden Administration moved quickly to update SCC values and other policy objectives
Calculate an expected SCC increase of 43% due to tipping points
EPA’s SCC estimate builds on the latest science
Explaining the mortality and agriculture SCC contributions
Explaining the SLR SCC contribution
How confident are we in SCC estimates?
How did the SCC factor into estimating the benefits of new microwave standby power standards?
IAMs Flaw #1 - Inadequate consideration of uncertainty and risk
Impose the social cost of carbon on extraction of fossil fuels from public lands
LW Webinar - Continued Focus on Social Cost of Carbon Estimates
New guidelines may increase mandated mitigation by 60 percent
New mean SCC estimate 3.6x higher than existing SCC
SCC estimates from Biden’s IWG are too low to achieve policy objectives
SCC values are far below what would be required to achieve net zero by 2050
Social Cost of Carbon Special Materials
Study relies on a new IAM
The machinery is being constructed to impose a carbon tax through the back door
The SCC in economic decision-making
The SCC is the appropriate value to use for cost-benefit analysis and related purposes
These new estimates reflect the latest science
Three problems with an SCC value
Tipping points have significant implications for thinking about SCC
Trusting the political process for a "scientific solution" is unscientific
What decisions could the SCC significantly affect?
What is the current SCC value?
What limitations were identified in the 2010 SCC estimates?
Why does risk management not rely on "expected" values?
Social Cost of Carbon TOC
I:SCCSocialCostofCarbon (Deep Dive)
2015 Infographic - beef subsidies in Brazil
2015 Infographic - timber subsidies Indonesia
2015 Infographic palm oil subsidies in Indonesi
2015 Infographic soy subsidies in Brazil
Infographic - Disastrous Spending Federal disaster relief
Infographic - How Much Does Solar Power Cost?
Infographic - Natural Capital
Infographic - Putting the worlds money supply into perspective
Infographic - the costs of climate change
Infographic - The value of the Great Barrier Reef to Australia
Infographic - Why global carbon emissions fell in 2014
Infographic Disaster Risk Finance: Protecting Livelihoods and Developme
I:SCCIncorporationofUncertainty
S - Evaluating SCC Estimates
S - Federal SCC Determination
S - IAMs Integrated Assessment Models
S - Intergenerational Decisionmaking
S - Quantifying Economic Impacts
S - SCC and Risk Adversity
S - SCC Social Cost of Carbon
S - Sectoral Social Costs
N - SCC Social Cost of Carbon News
T - Social Cost of Carbon Individuals
Topical Websites, Blogs, FB Home Pages
V - SCC Social Cost of Carbon
E - Alternative Economics
E - Carbon Pricing Extracts
E - Climate and Economic Growth
E - Climate Opportunities
E - Cost Benefit Analysis
E - Economic Policymaking
E - Economic thinking as part of climate problem
E - Impact Specific Economics
E - Low Carbon Transition Costs
E - Mitigation Potentials by Cost
Interactive Graphic - Farming and the Green economy
2001 Economics costs of climate change up to 6^o C
2006 Forecasting the cost of future climate change mitigation
2006 The optimal amount of climate change mitigation in a given time period
2007 Estimated geographical impacts of 2.5 and 6 degrees C of warming
2008 Nuclear is the cheapest option if we price carbon
2009 Conventional vs. expansive estimate of climate change impact on GDP
2009 How discount rates affect different adaptation measures
2010 Annualized U.S. loss trend - water impacts
2010 Discounted U.S. damages (direct water supply)
2010 Economics of climate change in Chicago by 2070-2099
2010 National employment impacts
2010 Second order uncertainty is the uncertainty in the uncertainty
2010 Welfare probabilities shown against $50 and $500 carbon taxes
2011 Capital investment required under all three scenarios
2011 Commodity price increases since 2000 have erased the gains of the last century
2011 Delayed climate policy could cost $8 trillion by 2030
2011 Forecasts in figure form - shaded area showing range of legislative proposals
2011 Potential per capita GDP costs of climate change to 2200
2011 The difficult of quantifying ecosystem costs
2011 There is big uncertainty about forecasted prices even given probram design
2013 Economic losses related to natural catastrophes
2013 Forecasting global baseline CO2 emissions
2013 Only a relatively small (and declining) part of the U.S. economy is really vulnerable to climate change.
2013 With limited participation number goes to 4 degrees.
2014 Combined direct impact costs vs. integrated costs
2014 Costs of CO2 mitigation
2014 Direct costs and benefits by state, historical hurricane, market mortality
2014 Direct costs and benefits by state, projected hurricane, VSL mortality cost
2014 If the forecasted targets are achieved through P&Ms or targets, what's the cost? (CO2eq)
2014 Per capita county direct costs from change in energy costs
2014 Per capita county-level labor productivity impacts
2014 Per capita direct costs by county distribution
2014 Per capita increase in average annual storm damages due to SLR
2014 Per capita increase in state coastal damages due to SLR alone
2014 Per capita increase in state coastal damages due to SLR and potential hurricane activity change
2014 Per capita state cost increases from crime
2014 State level per capita direct costs
2014 State level per capita direct costs
2015/8 Limiting climate change can save $1.8 Trillion in fuel spend, and $100 Trillion in damages
2015 9. But implications differ by sector, as shown here.
2015 14. But costs are higher, unless you factor in climate and health savings
2015 And will continue to fall
2015 And wind and solar costs are evolving quickly
2015 Annual electricity production and fossil fuel role to 2040
2015 Changes in energy spend by scenario
2015 Comparing Citi and IEA solar and wind deployment
2015 Economic impact of climate change on the world
2015 Net and cumulative incremental costs of the action scenario
2015 REDD Finance vs. agricultural and biofuels subsidies in Brazil and Indonesia
2015 The relative economics of offsets
2015 Value of potentially unburnable carbon
2016 Estimated cost of natural disasters of 2012 in U.S.
2016 Mapping GHG productivity along value chains
2016 Mapping GHG productivity along value chains
2016 Sector emissions vs. value added
2016 Sectors are affected differently by climate change
2017 17 estimates of the GDP impact of climate change plotted as a least squares - 5 to 95% confidence interval
2017 Billion-Dollar Weather
2017 Recent cost trends for selected technologies
2017 Technology will create opportunities for energy savings and resource productivity
2020 CBO's projections over different time periods
2020 Charting the CBO's methodology
2020 Comparing CBO estimates to two other studies
2020 Estimated cost of an HVDC system
2020 Estimated Costs and Benefits of Infrastructure 3.0
2020 Estimates of economic damage to 2100
2020 HVDC Capital and Maintenance costs by phase
2020 North America’s average cost of energy between 2009 and 2017
2020 Potential new jobs based on payback and interest rate
2020 The overall impact of climate change to 2050
2020 U.S. energy productivity 1950-2019
2021 Billion dollar disasters 1980 - 2020
2022 Adaptation and global emissions reductions, taken together, can dramatically reduce costs
2022 Business investment will fall relative to a stable-climate reference case
2022 Canadian exports will shrink over time in both low-emissions and high-emissions scenarios
2022 Canadian households will pay a high price for climate damages in both the low-emissions and high-emissions scenarios
2022 Canadian imports will slow over time in both low-emissions and high-emissions scenarios
2022 Climate change will cause major job losses in both the low-emissions and high-emissions scenarios
2022 Climate change will make life less affordable by reducing income and increasing expenses
2022 Compared to the stable-climate reference case, by the middle of the century, most impact groups will see a loss in real GDP
2022 Economic drag indicators and broken window indicators
2022 Employment will fall relative to a stable-climate reference case
2022 Exports will fall relative to a stable-climate reference case
2022 Government spending will mostly increase relative to a stable-climate reference case
2022 Governments will need to increase taxes to pay for climate damages both in the low-emissions and high-emissions scenarios
2022 Household income will fall relative to a stable-climate reference case
2022 Imports will fall relative to a stable-climate reference case
2022 Investment declines accelerate over the medium term, both in the low-emissions and high-emissions scenarios
2022 Key findings from the bottom-up analysis
2022 Large GDP losses are already happening and will continue to grow in both low-emissions and high-emissions scenarios
2022 Low-emissions scenario and high-emissions scenario
2022 Low-income households have the most to lose from climate impacts both in the low-emissions and high-emissions scenarios
2022 Modelling climate impacts and their translation into the macroeconomic model
2022 Most sectors of the economy are negatively impacted by climate change both in the low-emissions and high-emissions scenarios
2022 No region is immune from the impacts of climate change, as losses take hold across the country, both in the low-emissions and high-emissions scenarios
2022 Our approach to assessing the impacts of climate change in Canada
2022 Proactive adaptation cuts costs by half across both the low-emissions and high-emissions scenarios
2022 Proactive adaptation generates major economic returns
2022 Proactive adaptation is a strong investment that generates major economic returns
2022 Real GDP will fall relative to a stable-climate reference case
2022 The climate costs iceberg
2022 The economic costs and benefits of 16 climate impacts
2030 (2017) Climate change could raise extreme poverty significantly
2100 (2014) Change in per capita direct energy expenditure by state for RCP 8.5 scenario
2100 (2014) Per capita state-level direct costs from increasing mortality under RCP 8.5 scenario
A lot more maritime reductions available by 2030
Alternative fittings of the line to the data
And huge questions about be raised about the entire discounting approach
Attractive adaptation options can mitigate risk increases
Best estimate economics across control technologies and one technology combination, 100% in region
But with inefficiency and discounting, a very different number - 3.8 degrees.
Case study of 37 forecasted energy impacts
CCS costs vs other technologies
Change in hydropower output 2020s and 2050s (no adaptation)
Change in maximum catch potential 2050s
Change in thermoelectric power output 2020s and 2050s (no adaptaiton)
Confidence in climate change health impacts
Costs of weather and climate natural disasters
Country-level income projections with and without climate change
Current Impacts - Human health
Declining EV battery costs
Decreasing milk production
Decreasing wine grape quality
Economic analysis makes clear that THE economic alternative is to reduce coal use.
Economic benefits of significantly reducing emissions
Economic effects reported in American Climate Prospectus Study
Estimated cost of adapting to sea level rise, 2100
Estimates of welfare loss due to dlimate change in 16 studies
Expected hurricane losses
Expected losses across scenarios
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Headings - Extracted Materials
E - SCC Social Cost of Carbon
Extracted Graphics | Extracted Ideas
Social Cost of Carbon 101