Select files to upload
or use drag and drop
Select files to upload
or use drag and drop
Select files to upload
or use drag and drop
Select files to upload
or use drag and drop
Select files to upload
or use drag and drop
2011 Hansen_Climate Variability and Climate Change
2011 Fraction of surface area that's cold or hot shifting significantly
2011 One can see a systematic warming signal in a number of regions
2011 The extreme heat tail of anomalies has shifted by 1 SD over 3 decades
2011 The fraction of land area with very high extremes is increasing
2011 The proportion of surface area displaying >3 SDs is growing significantly
2011 The U.S. anomalies are not clear
2011 We can track how annual anomalies diverge in terms of SDs from the baseline
2011 We can track how surface temperatures are changing over time
Bottom line is that probability distribution is shifting toward higher temperature (#5 above), and is flattening out
The dice are shifting as Hansen projected in 1988, as shown in 5 and 6
The greatest barrier to responding to climate change is natural climatic variability
E - Timeline Impacts
I:1.5vs2.0Degrees (HowCanIVisualize?)
200X 100 Degree days in U.S. - NAS Public
2006 Exceedance probability for flood affected areas in Bangladesh
2010 Annualized U.S. loss trend - water impacts
2010 Changes in permafrost coverage to 2100
2010 High value sector water availability - municipalities, industry, energy
2010 Hydroelectric water availability
2010 Mining water availability
2010 Normalized state by state water availability in 2050
2010 Second order uncertainty is the uncertainty in the uncertainty
2011 Fraction of surface area that's cold or hot shifting significantly
2011 One can see a systematic warming signal in a number of regions
2011 The extreme heat tail of anomalies has shifted by 1 SD over 3 decades
2011 The fraction of land area with very high extremes is increasing
2011 The proportion of surface area displaying >3 SDs is growing significantly
2011 The U.S. anomalies are not clear
2011 Very good chance we're already committed to >2 degrees C
2011 We can track how annual anomalies diverge in terms of SDs from the baseline
2011 We can track how surface temperatures are changing over time
2012 1 in 20 year U.S. heat events will become 1 in 2 year events
2012 And translating that into ocean pH
2012 Annual probability of loss due to hurricanes for Miami-Dade Region 2000 - 2050
2012 Estimate future return period for currently 100-year droughts in Europe
2012 Global water security map: Now vs. 2025
2012 Projected return period in years for annual maximum temperatures compared to late 1900's
2012 Temperature anomaly distributions during the summer for the U.S.
2013 Climate vs. Population impact for 1% Annual Flood Discharge change
2013 Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge 2020
2013 Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge 2040
2013 Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge 2060
2013 Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge 2080
2013 Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge 2100
2013 Median Projected Change in Flood Hazard Parameter for 2100
2013 Median Projected Change in SFHA for 2020
2013 Median Projected Change in SFHA for 2040
2013 Median Projected Change in SFHA for 2060
2013 Median Projected Change in SFHA for 2080
2013 Median Projected Change in SFHA for 2100
2013 Monte Carlo Distribution for 1% Annual Flood Discharge change
2013 Projected shoreline change by region based on mean historical SLR
2014 Change in national yield for crops by time and scenario (assuming CO2 fertilization
2014 Changing heat and humidity by state
2014 Per capita state-level direct costs from morality changes
2014 State level per capita direct energy expenditure change
2015 Timescales of climate processes and inclusion of feedbacks in climate models
2016 2005-2015 mean surface temperature anomalys
2016 North and Southern hemisphere temperature anomaly shifts
2016 Regional shifts i temperature anomalies - U.S., Europe, China, India
2016 Regional shifts in temperature anomalies - Africa, Middle East, SE Asia
2017 Changing Cold Hardiness zones in Oregon to 2050
2017 Forecasting OR's winter temperature change
2020 Anticipated temperature change across Africa to 2030 and 2050
2020 Average land and sea surface temperature anomaly to 2050 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5
2020 Categories of countries vulnerable to climate risk increases
2020 Change in drought likelihood to 2030 and 2050
2020 Change in lethal heat wave probability to 2030 and 2050
2020 Change in water supply to 2030 and 2050
2020 Countries with lowest GDP per capita face biggest climate risk increase
2020 GDP at risk from impact on effective working hours to 2030 and 2050
2020 GDP at risk from reduced effective working hours to 2030 and 2050
2020 Increase in 50-year precipitation events to 2030 and 2050
2020 Increase in average annual temperature to 2030 and 2050
2020 Increase in long tail risk in Florida to 2030 and 2050
2020 Probability change in lethal heat waves in India to 2030 and 2050
2020 Probability of drought across Africa to 2030 and 2050
2020 Probability of drought in Meditteranean to 2030 and 2050
2020 Probability of lost working hours in India
2020 Risk of >15% global yield failure 2x increase to 2030 and 5x increase to 2050
2020 Vulnerability of global infrastructure assets to 2030
A massive increase in "nuisance flooding" around the U.S.
Ag sector highlights
Annual probability of hurricane loss
Anticipated changes in stream-flow in 2050
As can be seen in forecasting likely African crop failures
Average days over 95 degrees
But the likelihood of such an anomaly is expected to change dramatically during this century
Change in hurricane probability to 2060
Change in projected crop yields
Change in stream temperature to 2050 RCP8.5
Change in streamflow to 2050 based on RCP8.5
Climate change could raise extreme poverty significantly by 2030
Comparing the winter precipitation changes for different scenarios to 2100
Decreasing habitat for coldwater fish
European summer temperatures 1500-2010
Expected change in extreme temperatures by 2080-2100 (degrees and SDs)
Expected temperature change (degrees and SDs) by 2080-2100
Expected temperature change by 2050
Exposed coastal populations in 2030 and 2060
Fire impacts on CA transmission lines could be significant
Frequency of Cat 4-5 hurricanes expected to increase 80% by 2080, while Cat 1-3 decline 38%
Frequency of extreme summers
Global changes in annual runoff by 2099
Good example of IPCC projections of change between 2020 and 2090
Increase in % of warm nights
Increase in daily heavy precipitation
It's not the change in global average temperature that really matters, it's the tails of the probability curve
It's possible to recalculate hurricane probabilities based on climate forecasts
Likelihood of 50% increase in annual area cropland affected
New York's new flood zones map
North Hemisphere near-surface permafrost area to 2100
Northern Hemisphere snow cover change to 2100
Number of extreme hot days
Number of months expected to exceed 3, 4, and 5 SDs from current temperatures by 2080-2100
Observed change in precipitation patterns 2001 - 2013
Ocean acidity according to different model scenarios
Planting zone changes over time
Plausible worst case impacts on drought
Plausible worst case increase in # of people flooding in 2050
Precipitation is more challenging to project
Probability of 30-year floods will increase substantially
Projected changes in oC in 20-year return values of annual maximum daily temperatures
Projected difference in Dry days for Africa to 2050's
Projected increase in heat deaths
Regional Warming under 3 scenarios - NAS Public
Significant trends in the number of dry days, and soil moisture
The 2003 heat wave was very unusual
Where hail sizes will increase
Year of climate departure
Infographic - Coastal flooding will increase in NYC
Infographic - More hot days in New York City
Infographic - More precipitation in New York City
1.9 million homes are at risk of being underwater by 2100 (and six feet)
2010 Displacement of coastal populations to 2050
Can anticipate increases in water stress probability
Expected value of hurricane damages to Miami-Dade 2000 - 2050
2015 Earth Under Water in 2040 HD Documentary 2015
A climate change Christmas: the hottest deals of 2056 – video
Climate Central - Threatened U.S. Cities by Decade
Climate Communication Science & Outreach - Number of Days Above 100
Expected value of hurricane damanges to Miami-Dade to 2050
Return frequency declining for major hurricanes
E - U.S. Extremes
2011 The U.S. anomalies are not clear
2012 Ratio of high to low records in the U.S. 1950's to 2000's
Historical and projected temperature distribution for the U.S.
Natural decadal variability of typhoons
2011 Anomalies are clearly trending towards hot and very hot temperatures
2011 The U.S. anomalies are not clear
Can we differentiate between U.S. and global temperature extreme trends?
2011 One can see a systematic warming signal in a number of regions
2011 The U.S. anomalies are not clear
44 Individual Graphics
2011 The U.S. anomalies are not clear
2011_Hansen_Climate Variability and Climate Change
Under-Estimating Climate Risk
Visualizing CC to Date
2011 Hansen_Climate Variability and Climate Change
2011 Fraction of surface area that's cold or hot shifting significantly
2011 One can see a systematic warming signal in a number of regions
2011 The extreme heat tail of anomalies has shifted by 1 SD over 3 decades
2011 The fraction of land area with very high extremes is increasing
2011 The proportion of surface area displaying >3 SDs is growing significantly
2011 The U.S. anomalies are not clear
2011 We can track how annual anomalies diverge in terms of SDs from the baseline
2011 We can track how surface temperatures are changing over time
Bottom line is that probability distribution is shifting toward higher temperature (#5 above), and is flattening out
The dice are shifting as Hansen projected in 1988, as shown in 5 and 6
The greatest barrier to responding to climate change is natural climatic variability
E - Timeline Impacts
I:1.5vs2.0Degrees (HowCanIVisualize?)
200X 100 Degree days in U.S. - NAS Public
2006 Exceedance probability for flood affected areas in Bangladesh
2010 Annualized U.S. loss trend - water impacts
2010 Changes in permafrost coverage to 2100
2010 High value sector water availability - municipalities, industry, energy
2010 Hydroelectric water availability
2010 Mining water availability
2010 Normalized state by state water availability in 2050
2010 Second order uncertainty is the uncertainty in the uncertainty
2011 Fraction of surface area that's cold or hot shifting significantly
2011 One can see a systematic warming signal in a number of regions
2011 The extreme heat tail of anomalies has shifted by 1 SD over 3 decades
2011 The fraction of land area with very high extremes is increasing
2011 The proportion of surface area displaying >3 SDs is growing significantly
2011 The U.S. anomalies are not clear
2011 Very good chance we're already committed to >2 degrees C
2011 We can track how annual anomalies diverge in terms of SDs from the baseline
2011 We can track how surface temperatures are changing over time
2012 1 in 20 year U.S. heat events will become 1 in 2 year events
2012 And translating that into ocean pH
2012 Annual probability of loss due to hurricanes for Miami-Dade Region 2000 - 2050
2012 Estimate future return period for currently 100-year droughts in Europe
2012 Global water security map: Now vs. 2025
2012 Projected return period in years for annual maximum temperatures compared to late 1900's
2012 Temperature anomaly distributions during the summer for the U.S.
2013 Climate vs. Population impact for 1% Annual Flood Discharge change
2013 Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge 2020
2013 Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge 2040
2013 Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge 2060
2013 Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge 2080
2013 Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge 2100
2013 Median Projected Change in Flood Hazard Parameter for 2100
2013 Median Projected Change in SFHA for 2020
2013 Median Projected Change in SFHA for 2040
2013 Median Projected Change in SFHA for 2060
2013 Median Projected Change in SFHA for 2080
2013 Median Projected Change in SFHA for 2100
2013 Monte Carlo Distribution for 1% Annual Flood Discharge change
2013 Projected shoreline change by region based on mean historical SLR
2014 Change in national yield for crops by time and scenario (assuming CO2 fertilization
2014 Changing heat and humidity by state
2014 Per capita state-level direct costs from morality changes
2014 State level per capita direct energy expenditure change
2015 Timescales of climate processes and inclusion of feedbacks in climate models
2016 2005-2015 mean surface temperature anomalys
2016 North and Southern hemisphere temperature anomaly shifts
2016 Regional shifts i temperature anomalies - U.S., Europe, China, India
2016 Regional shifts in temperature anomalies - Africa, Middle East, SE Asia
2017 Changing Cold Hardiness zones in Oregon to 2050
2017 Forecasting OR's winter temperature change
2020 Anticipated temperature change across Africa to 2030 and 2050
2020 Average land and sea surface temperature anomaly to 2050 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5
2020 Categories of countries vulnerable to climate risk increases
2020 Change in drought likelihood to 2030 and 2050
2020 Change in lethal heat wave probability to 2030 and 2050
2020 Change in water supply to 2030 and 2050
2020 Countries with lowest GDP per capita face biggest climate risk increase
2020 GDP at risk from impact on effective working hours to 2030 and 2050
2020 GDP at risk from reduced effective working hours to 2030 and 2050
2020 Increase in 50-year precipitation events to 2030 and 2050
2020 Increase in average annual temperature to 2030 and 2050
2020 Increase in long tail risk in Florida to 2030 and 2050
2020 Probability change in lethal heat waves in India to 2030 and 2050
2020 Probability of drought across Africa to 2030 and 2050
2020 Probability of drought in Meditteranean to 2030 and 2050
2020 Probability of lost working hours in India
2020 Risk of >15% global yield failure 2x increase to 2030 and 5x increase to 2050
2020 Vulnerability of global infrastructure assets to 2030
A massive increase in "nuisance flooding" around the U.S.
Ag sector highlights
Annual probability of hurricane loss
Anticipated changes in stream-flow in 2050
As can be seen in forecasting likely African crop failures
Average days over 95 degrees
But the likelihood of such an anomaly is expected to change dramatically during this century
Change in hurricane probability to 2060
Change in projected crop yields
Change in stream temperature to 2050 RCP8.5
Change in streamflow to 2050 based on RCP8.5
Climate change could raise extreme poverty significantly by 2030
Comparing the winter precipitation changes for different scenarios to 2100
Decreasing habitat for coldwater fish
European summer temperatures 1500-2010
Expected change in extreme temperatures by 2080-2100 (degrees and SDs)
Expected temperature change (degrees and SDs) by 2080-2100
Expected temperature change by 2050
Exposed coastal populations in 2030 and 2060
Fire impacts on CA transmission lines could be significant
Frequency of Cat 4-5 hurricanes expected to increase 80% by 2080, while Cat 1-3 decline 38%
Frequency of extreme summers
Global changes in annual runoff by 2099
Good example of IPCC projections of change between 2020 and 2090
Increase in % of warm nights
Increase in daily heavy precipitation
It's not the change in global average temperature that really matters, it's the tails of the probability curve
It's possible to recalculate hurricane probabilities based on climate forecasts
Likelihood of 50% increase in annual area cropland affected
New York's new flood zones map
North Hemisphere near-surface permafrost area to 2100
Northern Hemisphere snow cover change to 2100
Number of extreme hot days
Number of months expected to exceed 3, 4, and 5 SDs from current temperatures by 2080-2100
Observed change in precipitation patterns 2001 - 2013
Ocean acidity according to different model scenarios
Planting zone changes over time
Plausible worst case impacts on drought
Plausible worst case increase in # of people flooding in 2050
Precipitation is more challenging to project
Probability of 30-year floods will increase substantially
Projected changes in oC in 20-year return values of annual maximum daily temperatures
Projected difference in Dry days for Africa to 2050's
Projected increase in heat deaths
Regional Warming under 3 scenarios - NAS Public
Significant trends in the number of dry days, and soil moisture
The 2003 heat wave was very unusual
Where hail sizes will increase
Year of climate departure
Infographic - Coastal flooding will increase in NYC
Infographic - More hot days in New York City
Infographic - More precipitation in New York City
1.9 million homes are at risk of being underwater by 2100 (and six feet)
2010 Displacement of coastal populations to 2050
Can anticipate increases in water stress probability
Expected value of hurricane damages to Miami-Dade 2000 - 2050
2015 Earth Under Water in 2040 HD Documentary 2015
A climate change Christmas: the hottest deals of 2056 – video
Climate Central - Threatened U.S. Cities by Decade
Climate Communication Science & Outreach - Number of Days Above 100
Expected value of hurricane damanges to Miami-Dade to 2050
Return frequency declining for major hurricanes
E - U.S. Extremes
2011 The U.S. anomalies are not clear
2012 Ratio of high to low records in the U.S. 1950's to 2000's
Historical and projected temperature distribution for the U.S.
Natural decadal variability of typhoons
2011 Anomalies are clearly trending towards hot and very hot temperatures
2011 The U.S. anomalies are not clear
Can we differentiate between U.S. and global temperature extreme trends?
2011 One can see a systematic warming signal in a number of regions
2011 The U.S. anomalies are not clear