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E - Changing Probability Distributions

E - Changing Return Periods

E - Climate Change Fingerprint

E - Communicating shifting extremes

E - Exceedance Curves

E - Forecasted Probabilities

Small average changes in temperature can hide dramatic changes at extremes

1oC - Socioeconomic impacts of climate change already manifesting

1900-2010 (2011) U.S. temperature anomalies not nearly as clear as other parts of the world

1950-2010 (2011) Fraction of surface area that's cold or hot shifting significantly

1950-2010 (2011) One can see a systematic warming signal in a number of regions

1950-2010 (2011) The extreme heat tail of anomalies has shifted by 1 SD over 3 decades

1950-2010 (2011) We can track how annual anomalies diverge in terms of SDs from the baseline

1950-2011 (2011) The fraction of land area with very high extremes is increasing

1955-2007 (2011) We can track how surface temperatures are changing over time

1955-2011 (2011) The proportion of surface area displaying >3 SDs is growing significantly

2009 Choosing the right strategy in probability space

2009 Risk of temperature directly related to concentrations, and varies widely over time

2010 In probability distributions, modes and means and uncertainty are important

2010 rainfall anomaly against future probability distributions

2012 Extreme events are growing in probability faster than projected by the models

2012 Ratio of high to low records in the U.S. 1950's to 2000's

2013 Probability of catastrophe by treatment

2013 temperatures against future probability distribution

2015 The shock scenario

2016 Annual mean surface temperature anomaly

2016 Changing likelihood of extreme events

2016 Comparison of El Nino strength and temperature trend

2016 Decadal mean surface temperature anomaly

2016 Global surface temperature, annual and running mean

2016 ocean temperature anomaly against future probability distribution

2017 It's all about probabilities

2019 A cumulative distribution function (CDF) transforms a probability distribution into an exceedance curve from 0 to 100%. A complementary CDF (CCDF) does the reverse, from 100% to 0%

2030-2050 (2020) Risk of >15% global yield failure increases 2x and 5x

2040 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge

2040 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA

2050 (2020) Economic impact of extreme flood could be 5-10 times greater than today

2060 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge

2060 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA

2080 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge

2080 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA

2100 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge

2100 (2013) Median Projected Change in Flood Hazard Parameter

2100 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA for 2100

2100 (2013) Monte Carlo Distribution for 1% Annual Flood Discharge change

Abnormal markets - stock exchange not normally distributed

Attribution of changing water scarcity to climate and population

b. By increasing variability with the existing mean

Beta distribution

Brownian motion and stock prices - normal distributions

CCDF complementary cumulative probability function

Change in exceedance probability for normally distributed data

Change in risk of occurrence due to a trend in the mean

Changing global water scarcity risk levels

Changing likelihood of Australian extreme events

Changing likelihood of flooding

Changing temperature probabilities in Colorado River Basin

Conceptual diagram of shifting probabilities

Does climate fit into normal distribution? Evidence that it does not

Effect of mitigation on global emergence in drivers of ecosystem stress

End-century project flow reductions Colorado River Basin

Expected extremes based on linear change in SD

Future warming projections constrasting model vs. paleo estimates

Gamma distribution

Geographic variation in attribution variables

Increase in probability of extremes

It's a Matter of Risk and Probabiliy

Lognormal distribution

Mapped Amplification Factors

Mapping flood levels

Mid-century projected flow reductions Colorado River Basin

Moscow July Anomalies

Normal/Gaussian distribution

Northwest Atlantic cod harvest

Power law = better fit for stock extremes

Probability distribution with varying uncertainty around the same mean

Probability distribution with varying uncertainty around the same mode

Reconstructed global mean temperatures

Redrawing this figure using a ratio scale

Regional variation in water scarcity

Responding to fire risks: unlikely but we buy fire insurance

SAT Surface Air Temperature

Sensitivity of global SAT to radiative forcing anomalies

Shifting distribution of temperature anomalies in the Northern hemisphere, winter and summer

SST Sea Surface Temperature

Stock market performance on a ratio scale

Storylines used for RCPs and SSPs

The "tails" of normal and fat-tailed distribution

The 2003 European heat wave against the normal distribution

The distribution of outcomes of rolling 10 dice at once

The distribution of outcomes of rolling two dice

The more dice, the closer you get to a "normal" distribution

The normal probability curve

Three possible outcomes in terms of probability shifts

understanding shifts in extremes due to climate change

Variations in severity of water scarcity

Weibull distribution

Why uncertainty increases risk

2020-2050 (2020) Increase in long tail risk of hurricane damages in Florida

And climate tipping points may be much more likely than we've thought

And there's a clear analogy to abrupt climate change

Precautionary principle: making decisions without probabilities sensible, but don't take to extremes

What causes extreme events in nature and in finance

E - Extreme Event Impacts

2013 Infographic - Weathermageddon Extreme Climate in Canada 2013

Infographic - Extreme weather and climate change

Infographic - the costs of climate change

E - Climate Change and Hurricanes

E - Drought Impacts

E - Extreme Event Costs

E - Fire Impacts

E - Flood Impacts

E - Shifting Extremes

2015/2 2015 is an important year for Climate Change

2018/10 Among the Ruins of Mexico Beach Stands One House, Built ‘for the Big One’

0oC - 5oC extreme event impacts

1900-2010 (2011) U.S. temperature anomalies not nearly as clear as other parts of the world

2000-2050 (2012) Return frequency declining for major hurricanes

2009 Increases in wind damage are not linear to wind speed

2009 Temperatures Will Rise - Australia as an Example

2009 The new "business as usual" of extreme events

2010 Relating sea level rise to storm return time for NYC

2011 10 Warmest Years on Record

2011 Aggregated climate change index shows future change relative to current variability

2011 US natural disaster risk map

2011 Very different sensitivities to risk

2012 Confidence in projecting direction and magnitude of some extremes grows as timeframe increases

2012 extreme weather events

2012 Interpreting global cyclone projections to risk management in the Caribbean

2012 Interpreting global drought projections to risk management in the Sahel

2012 Interpreting global heat wave projections to risk management in Europe

2012 Models clearly project changes in heat extreme return periods (see NA detail)

2012 Models clearly project precipitation extreme impact return periods over time (see NA detail)

2012 Natural disasters

2012 Significant weather related losses of 2011

2013 25 Most Costly Worldwide Insurance Disasters 1970-2012

2014/3 Heavy downpours more intense, frequent in a warmer world

2014 Probability distribution of annual increase in property damage assuming no change in hurricane activity

2015 Global probability of exceeding 99th extremes with temperature increase

2015 Probability of extreme precipitation events under warming

2016 Billion-dollar weather events 1980 2015

2018 Modeling flood risk over time

2018 Tropical cyclones getting stronger

2019 Significant climate anomalies and events in 2019

2019 Visualizing the December, 2019 European heat wave

2020 Top 20 largest California wildfires 1932-2020

2021 Distribution of reported disasters 1970 - 2019

2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in Africa 1970 - 2019

2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in Asia 1970 - 2019

2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in Europe 1970 - 2019

2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in LDCs 1970 - 2019

2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in North American and Caribbean 1970 - 2019

2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) 1970 - 2019

2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in South America 1970 - 2019

2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in South West Pacific 1970 - 2019

2030-2050 (2020) Lethal heat wave probabilities in India

2030-2050 (2020) Lethal heat wave probability

2030-2050 (2020) Probability of drought across Africa

2030-2050 (2020) Probability of drought in Meditteranean

2030-2050 Change in global drought likelihood

2040 (2020) Increased likelihood of today’s 100-year hurricanes

2050 (2020) Economic impact of extreme flood could be 5-10 times greater than today

2100 (2012) Expected change in regional extreme temperatures (degrees and SDs)

2100 (2012) Expected regional temperature change (degrees and SDs)

2100 (2012) Percentage of expected to exceed 3, 4, and 5 SDs from current temperatures

Alaskan Fires up

An average of 30 ft of beach lost in NJ

Anticipated damage from hurricane intensification.

Arctic Ice - Record Low Maximum

Areas burned up dramatically

b. By increasing variability with the existing mean

Billion Dollar Weather Disasters 1980-2010 economic damage caused by weather vulnerability

Climate change implications for the Rio Grande

Coastal infrastructure damaged

Coming up with a baseline for extreme event damages, now and 2100

Companies already feeling water impacts

Conceptual diagram of shifting probabilities

costs of recent extreme weather events

Current extremes like 2003 heat wave point to future climate change impacts

Days Above 95 degrees by 2100

Disaster relief costs in the U.S. are increasing

Dispersion of New Orleans residents after Hurricane Katrina

Drought and drought-related costs in the U.S. are increasing

Electrical service lost

Extreme weather metrics

Extreme weather on the risk

Heavy Downpours Increasing

Hurricane Ike

Hurricane Power North Atlantic

Hurricane Sandy impacts

Hurricanes may get stronger

Initial probability assessment carried out by the National Hurricane Center

IPCC has looked at likelihood of different kinds of extreme events

Loss events worldwide 2013

Mapping countries' cost vs. population affected by extreme events

Mitigation strategies for water extremes not yet in place

More U.S. 1" Downpours

More U.S. 2" Downpours

More U.S. 3" Downpours

Munich Re Climate Events

Normalization studies of disaster loss recordds

Numbers of weather-related loss events to 2014

Potential impacts of water extremes on business operations

Precipitation anomalies in 2010

Probability of drought during this century under BAU emissions

Projected temperature change of hottest and coldest days

Projecting net extreme event damages in 2100

Record setting ocean heat content linked to Harvey's epic rains

Regional Changes in Climate Extremes

Relationship of lightning insurance claims to temperature

Relative probability of extremes compared to pre-industrial

Sea surface temperatures August 2017

Shifting global occurrences of extreme events

Significant (>$1 blliion) weather events in North America 1993 - 2012

Significant climate anomalies in 2014

The European heat wave of 2003

The main reason that natural disaster costs have increased so significantly

There are more man-made than natural catastrophers

Total water levels for selected extreme events in the U.S.

Transportation infrastructure damaged

Underground systems flooded

We're setting more records for warm days than cold days

Weather events are the big source of insured catastrophe losses

WEF storms profile

Changes in climate extremes are more important than changes in averages

E - Temperature Impacts

Infographic - Risks at 2, 3, 4 Degrees

Infographic - Snapshot of a Warming World

I:1.5vs2.0Degrees (HowCanIVisualize?)

I:BoundingPolicyOutcomes

T - Visualizing Future Impacts

E - Impacts by Degree

2016 Global monthly temperature anomalies 2015-2016

2016/11 What will the world actually look like at 1.5°C of warming?

2018/10 Interactive: The impacts of climate change at 1.5C, 2C and beyond

2014 Global Warming Projections, 2 degrees warmer (from NG 2008)

2015 Climate Change: What Happens If The World Warms Up By 2°C?

3oC - Asian cities that will be worst affected by sea level rise

1500-2010 (2012) European summer temperatures 1500-2010

1500-2010 (2012) Frequency of extreme European summers

1900-2010 (2011) U.S. temperature anomalies not nearly as clear as other parts of the world

1900-2100 (2008) Change in daily heavy precipitation events, with uncertainty

1900-2100 (2008) Increase in % of warm nights for North America, with uncertainty

1900-2100 (2010) Changes in permafrost coverage to 2100

1920-2100 (2017) A massive increase in "nuisance flooding" around the U.S.

1950-2010 (2011) Fraction of surface area that's cold or hot shifting significantly

1950-2010 (2011) One can see a systematic warming signal in a number of regions

1950-2010 (2011) The extreme heat tail of anomalies has shifted by 1 SD over 3 decades

1950-2010 (2011) We can track how annual anomalies diverge in terms of SDs from the baseline

1950-2011 (2011) The fraction of land area with very high extremes is increasing

1950-2011 (2012) Temperature anomaly distributions during the summer for the U.S.

1950-2011 (2013) It's not the change in global average temperature that really matters, it's the tails of the probability curve

1950-2015 (2016) North and Southern hemisphere temperature anomaly shifts

1950-2015 (2016) Regional shifts in temperature anomalies - Africa, Middle East, SE Asia

1950-2015 (2016) Regional shifts in temperature anomalies - U.S., Europe, China, India

1955-2007 (2011) We can track how surface temperatures are changing over time

1955-2011 (2011) The proportion of surface area displaying >3 SDs is growing significantly

1980-2100 (2014) North Hemisphere near-surface permafrost area to 2100

1980-2100 (2014) Northern Hemisphere snow cover change to 2100

1980-2100 (2014) Number of days over 95o (F) RCP 8.5 Median and 1 in 20 chance

1980-2100 (2015) Change in after number of days over 95 degrees (F) Median and 1 in 20 chance estimates

2000-2013 (2016) Observed change in U.S. precipitation patterns

2000-2050 (2012) Expected value of hurricane damages to Miami-Dade

2011 Very good chance we're already committed to >2 degrees C

2012 Probabilistic Forecasts to 2100 based on new Representative Concentration Pathways

2012 Showing North American Detail

2012 There's huge uncertainty about really long-term outcomes

2014 Average summer temperatures across the U.S.

2014 Average winter temperatures

2014 Global temperature projections different and timelines

2014 Number of extreme cold days

2014 Projected changes in frost-free season length by scenario

2015 Global probability of exceeding 99th extremes with temperature increase

2015 Probability of extreme precipitation events under warming

2016 Alternative warming paths

2016 Emissions limits required to achieve temperature targets

2016 Potential temperature increase associated with consuming proven fossil fuels

2016 Temperature anomalies by latitude

2017/7 Alarming New Animation Shows The Months Are Indeed Getting Warmer

2017 Latitudinal risk of deadly climate

2017 Sea surface temperature anomaly 1961-1990

2020 2019 was Alaska's warmest year on record

2020 2019 Was 2nd Warmest Year on Record

2020 Arctic sea ice extent since 1979

2020 Global temperature time series

2020 US Temperature conditions 2019

2021 Amplification of temperature changes in the Arctic

2021 Australian annual average daily maximum temperature 1910-2021

2021 Committed sea level rise as a function of long-term global temperature increase

2021 Global population (2010 - 2100) experiencing a heatwave that exceeds 98th and 99th percentile of reference period (1981-2010)

2021 La Nina and Indian Ocean dipole 2021

2021 Land and ocean temperature percentiles for Jan-Dec 2020

2021 Number of people exposed to heat stress above the risks to workability and survivability thresholds

2021 Populations in Africa and Middle East experiencing heatwaves 2010 - 2100

2021 Populations in Asia and Australasia experiencing heatwaves 2010 - 2100

2021 Populations in Europe experiencing heatwaves 2010 - 2100

2021 Populations in North, Central, and South America experiencing heatwaves 2010 - 2100

2050 (2014) Planting zone changes over time

2100 (2012) Expected change in regional extreme temperatures (degrees and SDs)

2100 (2012) Expected regional temperature change (degrees and SDs)

2100 (2012) Percentage of expected to exceed 3, 4, and 5 SDs from current temperatures

2100 100 Degree days in U.S. Under 2 Emissions Scenarios

Attributing the current warming

Average warming under IPCC Scenarios - NAS Public

Changing average global temperature

Comparing mitigation, non-mitigation, and full stop scenarios to 2100

Comparing the Paris commitments

Comparing the temperature projections of different scenarios to 2100

Distribution of recent lethal heat events

Emissions and Temperature Linkage - NAS Public

Forecasted US temp changes

Heat map change in deadly days, temperature, and humidity

How extreme events rapidly get more extreme

Mapping countries' temperature change vs. speed of change

New simulations for projected temperature in the U.S.

Number of days per year above deadly heat threshold

Patterns of warming in Summer and Winter - NAS Public

Probability of global temperature thresholds based on IPCC scenario

Projected changes in future deadly climatic conditions - area and population

Projected global temperature change

Projected temperature change of hottest and coldest days

Projected U.S. temperature change

Putting current temperatures in context

Regional temperature and precipitation probabilities based on RCP3 and RCP8.5

Relative probability of extremes compared to pre-industrial

Significant climate anomalies and event May 2016

Temperature increases of 10-12 degrees C by 2300

Three former Olympic venues may lack sufficient snow, even with artificial snowmaking

US temperatures from 1991-2020 compared with 20th century average

When shortages of cold and snow are combined, 4 former Olympic venues likely to be unreliable hosts by midcentury

2010-2100 (2015) Probability that today’s 30-year floods will occur in a given year regionally

2010-2100 Regional Warming under 3 scenarios

2020-2100 (2014) Changes in NYC 100-year flood zones

A wide range of global temperature increases is possible, but more than 2oC is almost certain

E - Timeline Impacts

Coastal flooding will increase in NYC

I:1.5vs2.0Degrees (HowCanIVisualize?)

Climate Central - Threatened U.S. Cities by Decade

2015 A climate change Christmas: the hottest deals of 2056 – video

2015 Earth Under Water in 2040 HD Documentary 2015

1500-2010 (2012) European summer temperatures 1500-2010

1500-2010 (2012) Frequency of extreme European summers

1900-2010 (2011) U.S. temperature anomalies not nearly as clear as other parts of the world

1900-2100 (2008) Change in daily heavy precipitation events, with uncertainty

1900-2100 (2008) Increase in % of warm nights for North America, with uncertainty

1900-2100 (2010) Changes in permafrost coverage to 2100

1900-2100 (2012) Estimated ocean acidification under alternative emissions scenarios