Taylor: We just don't know a lot of key things about climate change. It all depends on the planetary sensitivity
2016 Taylor_A Conversation with Jerry Taylor: The Conservative Case for Acting on Climate
2007 Estimates of climate sensitivity vary widely
2007 The long tail of climate sensitivity
2008 How much sensitivity matters
2009 Risk of temperature directly related to concentrations, and varies widely over time
2010 Linking temperature to cumulative emissions
2010 Modeled sensitivity per 1000 GTs emissions
2010 Relating emissions trajectories to near-term and long-term warming
2011 Estimates of climate sensitivity have varied widely
2011 Probability distributions of climate sensitivity
2011 The tail of scientific uncertainty is longer than we thought
2011 Uncertainty - Climate sensitivity
2011 Uncertainty in climate sensitivity
2014 Estimated Equilibrium climate sensitivity
2014 Implications of climate sensitivity
2014 Transient climate response
2014 Where Climate Sensitivity Estimates Come From
2022 The current status of climate sensitivity estimates
A wide range of climate sensitivity estimates
Feedbacks with what impact?
Taylor: 90% of people advocate a modest tax with a strict escalator
Taylor: A recent survey of economists - 50% support drastic action, 43% say some action, 1% not a serious problem
Taylor: Conservative street doesn't like the message, the messengers, or where the policy train is headed
Taylor: Elected Republicans are out of touch with their base on climate change
Taylor: Even if you're unconvinced to act, that decision has been made. The only question is how we'll act
Taylor: Everything we have learned since 1906 is verified by our understanding of basic physics
Taylor: Governments job is to protect your life and liberty - regardless of the cost-benefit test
Taylor: Hayek noted that conservatives tend to reject well developed science and thought
Taylor: If liberals are right that mitigation is cheap, then emissions reductions from a carbon tax should be huge
Taylor: IPCC says a 10% chance by 2100 of 11 degrees. The scientific debate is about the error bars
Taylor: Ironically, conservatives have the best answer to climate change - the power of markets and the invisible hand
Taylor: It's a matter of what issues are in play - conservatives are NOT risk tolerant (look at refugees)
Taylor: Libertarians tend to argue the opposite way in every other policy arena
Taylor: Skeptical scientists don't argue the basic physics of warming. That's not the issue
Taylor: The "conservative street" is utterly disconnected from the science
Taylor: The debate should NOT be about the most likely outcomes - that's not the way we think
Taylor: The high end scenarios (even if low probability) would have cataclysmic outcomes
Taylor: The political right has been very poorly served by the policy of denial
Taylor: There are incredible uncertainties over climate change, but economic futures are even MORE uncertain
Taylor: There is no objective answer to risk tolerance
Taylor: There is NOTHING that will get the job done besides a real price on carbon - regulation can't get there
Taylors: Skeptics want to focus on likely outcomes, not explore the range of possible outcomes
The IPCC considers a wide range of values
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Taylor: We just don't know a lot of key things about climate change. It all depends on the planetary sensitivity
Climate Sensitivity to GHGs
Under-Estimating Climate Risk