Headings - Extracted Materials
E - Food Security Impacts
Extracted Graphics | Extracted Ideas
Global Food Shock as Systemic Risk
Ukraine War and Low Carbon Transition
2012/8 Building climate values through food security
Existing concentration of growing regions for major grains is high
2010 Countries are leasing land abroad for food production purposes
2011 WEG food security profile
2012 The global food trade
2015 Conceptual framework for food supply chain disruption scenarios
2015 Graphical representation of worst-case scenarios for 2016 and 2026 (1)
2020 Four main tipping point characteristics may be identified for early warning signals
2020 Identification of tipping points, showing transition from stable food security conditions to a food crisis resulting from drought in Ethiopia
2020 In this model, the transition of interest is the regime shift from favorable food security conditions into a food crisis, and vice versa.
2020 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
2020 Remotely‐sensed environmental indicators that could be related to droughts or the impacts of droughts on food insecurity
2021 Expert assessment of systemic cascading climate risks likely to lead to food insecurity
2030-2050 (2020) Risk of >15% global yield failure increases 2x and 5x
1 in 100 Year Food Shocks May Be 3x as Likely by Mid-century
2011/6 Oxfam Predicts Climate Change will Help Double Food Prices by 2030: “We Are Turning Abundance into Scarcity”
Although remotely‐sensed data currently provide input into drought and food security analysis, their use at the global level is not systematic
Current models leave a lot out at higher temperature ranges
IPCC estimated positive and negative changes in crop yields to 2100
Land conscription for rewilding and food security is a topic whose time has come
Remotely‐sensed environmental data are already being used for drought and food security assessments, though their use is still relatively limited.
The four statistical diagnostics – autocorrelation, skewness, variance and threshold exceedance – offer an opportunity to operationalize an early warning system that detects transitions from one state of food security conditions to a state of a food crisis
Agriculture Sector
I:Agriculture2oCScenario
I:AgricultureSector (Deep Dive)
I:DietandClimate
I:Halophytes
S - Agriculture Sector
S - Agriculture Sector Futures
S - Agriculture Sector Impacts
N - Agriculture Impacts
N - Climate and Wine
N - Food Security
N - Food Waste
E - Agricultural Sector
E - Food Security Impacts
E - Wine and Climate
Agriculture
Regenerative Agriculture
Agriculture - environmental impact
Physical Impacts and Risks TOC
I:BenefitsofClimateChange
I:BoundingFutureImpacts
I:EconomicsofClimateImpacts
I:FingerprintofClimateChange (Deep Dive)
I:ImpactsofDelayingAction
I:IndirectImpactsofClimateChange
I:LongTailClimateRisks - Synonym
I:SocioEconomicImpacts
I:UnacceptableClimateChange
I:VisualizingtheFuture
S - Biodiversity Impacts
S - Drought Impacts
S - Extreme Event Impacts
S - Fire Impacts
S - Flood Impacts
S - Forecasted Extreme Events
S - Hurricanes/Cyclones
S - Ice Impacts
S - Impacts by Region
S - Impacts by Timing
S - Impacts By Degree
S - Impacts of SLR
S - Managing Extreme Event Risk
S - Modeling Extreme Events
S - Ocean Impacts
S - Precipitation Impacts
S - Probabilistic Decision-Making
S - SocioEconomic Impacts
S - Species Impacts
S - Storm Surge
S - Temperature Impacts
N - Agriculture Impacts
N - Biodiversity and Ecosystem Impacts
N - Climate Change and Hurricane Harvey
N - Climate Change and Hurricanes
N - Drought Impacts
N - Economic Impacts
N - Extreme Events
N - Fire Impacts
N - Flooding Impacts
N - Forestry Impacts
N - Glacier Impacts
N - Health Impacts
N - Ocean Acidification
N - Sports Impacts
N - Temperature Impacts
N - US Extremes
N - Water Impacts
T - Climate Impact Networks
T - Climate Impact Tracking
T - Impact Assessment
T - SLR Sea Level Rise Visualizations
T - Visualizing Future Impacts
T - Visualizing the Temperature Record
V - Arctic and Antarctic
V - Climate Futures
V - Extreme Events
V - Oceans and Climate
V - SLR Sea Level Rise
V - Temperature Change
Q - Climate Impacts
E - Climate Change and Harvey
E - Climate Change and Hurricanes
E - Climate Impacts/Risks by Sector
E - Fingerprint - Fire Regimes
E - Fire Impacts
E - Food Security Impacts
E - Impacts by Degree
E - Impacts by Time Period
E - Long Tail Risk Impacts
E - Security and Climate
E - Temperature Impacts
Risks - Societal TOC
I:AcceleratingClimateChange
I:IPCCUnderestimationofRisk
I:SystemicClimateRisk (Deep Dive)
S - 1.5oC Target
S - 1.5 vs 2.0 Degrees
S - 100% Renewable Energy Transition
S - Abrupt Climate Change
S - Catastrophic Risk Decision-Making
S - Climate Change Fingerprint to Date
S - Climate Change Systemic Risk
S - Climate Change Tipping Points
S - Climate Emergency Sources
S - Climate Engineering Sources
S - Climate Sensitivity
S - Climate Uncertainties Unknowns
S - Dangerous Climate Impacts
S - Decision-making Under Uncertainty
S - Extreme Event Impacts
S - Fat and Long Tail Risks of Climate Change
S - Human Extinction
S - Impact Attribution
S - Probabilistic Decision-Making
S - Systemic Risk
S - Worst Case Climate Change
N - 1.5oC Target
N - 100% Renewable Future
N - Accelerating/Worsening Climate Change
N - Changing Climate Probabilities
N - Climate Change Tipping Points
N - Climate Emergency
N - Climate Sensitivity
N - Extreme Events
N - Fat and Long Tail Risks From Climate Change
N - Human Extinction
N - IPCC 1.5 Degrees Report
N - Systemic Climate Risk
T - Climate Emergency Networks
T - Extreme Events Network
T - Risk Assessment
T - Systemic Risk
V - Abrupt Change/Climate Disruption
V - Climate Emergency
V - Extreme Events
V - Systemic Climate Risk
E - 1.5 Degree Target
E - 1 Degree 350 ppm Scenario
E - 2 Degree 450 PPM Pathway
E - 3-4 Degree Scenario
E - 100% Renewable Transition
E - Changing Probability Distributions
E - Climate Change Tipping Points
E - Climate Emergency Extracts
E - Climate Sensitivity
E - Extreme Event Impacts
E - Food Security Impacts
E - Security and Climate
E - Underestimating Climate Risks
E - Worst Case Climate Change
E - Agriculture Impacts
E - Food Security Impacts
E - Wine and Climate
2011 Aggregated climate change index shows future change relative to current variability
2012 Changes in per capita ag production 1961-2005
2014 Change in national yield for crops by time and scenario (assuming NO CO2 fertilization)
2014 Impacts on key crops by scenario (assuming CO2 fertilization)
2014 Impacts on key crops by scenario (assuming NO CO2 fertilization)
2014 Losses are likely to become MUCH more frequent
2014 Per capita direct costs by county distribution
2014 Relied on statistical studies isolating effect of temp and precip on U.S. crops
2014 State level per capita direct costs
2020 How climate change will affect where crops are grown
2021 Proportion of continental cropland experiencing severe drought of 3 months or more/year
2021 Proportion of global crop areas with reductions in crop duration periods of at least 10 days by crop type 2010 - 2100
2021 Proportion of global cropland experiencing severe drought of 3 months or more/year
2021 Proportion of global winter wheat and rice crop areas experiencing damaging hot spells 2010 - 2100
2021 Proportion of largest areas for different crops/continent with reductions in crop duration periods of at least 10 days and experience damaging hot spells 2010 - 2100
2021 Proportion of regional cropland exposed to severe drought in 2050
Climate change impacts on African cereal yields 2050
Decreasing milk production
Decreasing wine grape quality
Impacts of 1, 2, 3, oC warming on Chinese maize production
Impacts on Mali yields under the modeled scenarios
Living standards and climate change with and without growth (stylized, DICE)
Many variables interact in determining impact on Bangladeshi rice yields
Plausible worst-case agricultural production scenario
Projected changes in soil moisture - 2050 and 2100
Projected impacts on crop yields in a 3o warmer world
Already see impacts on forest resources
Lethal temperature thresholds for key crops
What we want to avoid: Crop failure.
E - Drought Impacts
E - Food Security Impacts
2014 Percentage of west in summer drought
2021 Distributions of drought-related disasters by region 1970 - 2019
2021 Proportion of continental cropland experiencing severe drought of 3 months or more/year
2021 Proportion of global cropland experiencing severe drought of 3 months or more/year
2021 Proportion of regional cropland exposed to severe drought in 2050
2021 Proportion of regional populations experiencing drought in 2040
2050-2100 (2015) Probability of a 50% increase in annual area cropland affected by drought
During the 20th century we've seen a significant increase in drought severity
Extreme Drought in the U.S. and Mexico
By 2050, estimate is that nearly 40% of global cropland area will be exposed to severe drought for 3 or more months/year
Plausible worst case impacts on drought in 2050
Proportion of cropland under drought over time
E - Impacts by Type
E - Biodiversity Impacts
E - Carbon Sink Impacts
E - Ecosystem Impacts
E - Extreme Event Impacts
E - Food Security Impacts
E - Glacier Loss Impacts
E - Human Conflict Impacts
E - Human Health Impacts
E - Impacts of SLR
E - Infrastructure Impacts
E - Ocean Ice Impacts
E - Ocean Impacts
E - Permafrost Impacts
E - Precipitation Impacts
E - Security and Climate
E - Socioeconomic Impacts
E - Species Impacts
E - Temperature Impacts
E - Timeline Impacts
E - Water Stress Impacts
K - Energy Impacts
2008 GHG releases by permafrost
2010 Potential distances species will have to cover to stay at the same temperature
2014 Average summer temperatures across the U.S.
2021 Key climate hazards to European sectors and examples of potential options for NBS to address hazards
Area of U.S. Suffering from Drought
Change in maximum catch potential 2050s
Climate change will impact coastal communities in various ways
Days over 110 degrees in Phoenix by 2100
Differences in model forecasts of tropical cyclone frequency expressed as a percent of present day levels
Estimates of effects of global warming way off
Extent of drought as of 2014
Fewer Freezing Nights by 2100
Figure SPM.4b
Figure SPM.4c
Figure SPM.8
Forecasted US temp changes
Low river flows will get a lot lower
Marine species ability to shift range
People estimates of likely warming tend to be way off
Per capita water use in the U.s.
Per degree change in runoff globally
Some wine-growing regions will decline dramatically
Understanding of causes of global warming way off
Wine-making areas will expand
2020-2100 (2014) Changes in NYC 100-year flood zones
E - Systemic Climate Risk
E - Climate Impact on Returns
E - Food Security Impacts
E - Security and Climate
E - Stranded Assets - Value at Risk from Policy
2015 Australian emissions trends vs. IPCC carbon budget
2015 Australian gross revenue trajectories based on global climate responses
2015 Systemic risk in 2015 and 2035
2015 Timeline of evaluated systemic risks
2016 Mapping out the links between financial and climate fragility
2017 A comprehensive approach to social foundations and ecological boundaries
2017 Assets at potential risk of climate stranding
2017 Estimated ratio of 2099 GDP to 2010 GDP with and without climate change
2017 Number of deadly temperature days by 2100
2018 2100 Primary Energy Mix under Alternative Scenarios
2018 Growing number of extreme events and losses
2018 The growing potential for environmental migration
2019 Alternative economic models - Equilibrium vs. non-equilibrium
2019 Changes in global levelized energy costs 2010-2018
2019 How the energy transition could impact GDP based on alternative models
2019 Overview of the climate stress test framework
2019 Representative high-level scenarios for climate stress tests
2019 Sensitivity analysis for energy sector risk
2020 Atmospheric CO2 and regional emissions over 12,000 years
2020 Cascading potential climate tipping points based on temperature outcomes
2020 Chain reactions in climate impacts
2020 Climate crisis as systemic risk: evidence of economic impacts
2020 Climate crisis as systemic risk: impacts on different economic sectors
2020 Climate related risks, opportunities, and financial impacts
2020 Demand and supply shocks from climate change
2020 Evolution of energy systems in absolute and relative terms
2020 How physical and transition risks could materialize
2020 Impact of climate change on GDP
2020 More than half of syndicated lending of US banks subject to climate risk
2020 Role of Federal Reserve in addressing climate change
2020 Role of Federal Reserve in climate risk
2020 Testing business resilience to physical and transition risks
2020 The 5 C's Contribute to Coordination to Combat Climate Change
2020 The phases of transforming socio-technical systems
2020 Transition vs. physical risk balance
2020 Warming projections under emissions scenarios
2020 Weak vs. Strong Sustainability
2021 Expert assessment of systemic cascading climate risks likely to lead to economic and trade disruption
2021 Expert assessment of systemic cascading climate risks likely to lead to energy insecurity
2021 Expert assessment of systemic cascading climate risks likely to lead to greater national and international insecurity
2021 Expert assessment of systemic cascading climate risks likely to lead to health crises
2021 Expert assessment of systemic cascading climate risks likely to lead to migration pressures
2021 Summary of major systemic risk dynamics
Climate change has all the characteristics of financial systemic risk
Climate change will impact cost of living in many ways
Key research priorities on financial stablity and climate change
Potential vulnerability to climate change
Sovereign ratings directly correlated to climate vulnerability
Sovereign ratings inversely correlated to prosperity
2011 Strain will be put on international agreements to manage water, food, trade, and borders
2020 A lot of needed policies will be regressive
2020 A new international banking agency may be called for
2020 Abstract
2020 Carbon pricing won't be enough - complex policy mixes will be needed
2020 Central banks can be advocates for socioeconomic change
2020 Central banks have a role to play
2020 Central banks may have to rescue the financial system from climate risks
2020 Central banks should contribute to policy debates under the 5 C's
2020 Climate change poses challenges for monetary policy
2020 Climate risk management requires a structural transformation of our economies
2020 Climate risks will remain largely uninsurable and unheadgeable in the absence of a systemic response
2020 Consideration of climate risks by financial institutions could act as a form of shadow pricing of carbon
2020 Financial and climate stability can be seen as interconnected public goods
2020 Government action to steer markets in the right direction could create a huge market opportunity
2020 Governments should finance the low-carbon transition with public debt
2020 Green swans have similarities and differences with respect to black swans
2020 Green swans represent a colossal and potentially irreversible risk of staggering complexity
2020 It is not clear how big a difference greening banks' collateral frameworks would make
2020 Reigniting growth via low-carbon investments more sustainability than other approaches to growth
2020 Responding to climate change faces an "epistemological obstacle"
2020 Risk assessment can quantitatively or qualitatively use Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions
2020 Scenario analysis is only a partial solution to the challenge
2020 Several ways are being used to assess indirect climate risk exposures
2020 Several ways are being used to to assess the adaptive capacity of firms in a sector
2020 The climate stress test used by Netherlands Bank
2020 The financial sector could be faced by a "climate Minsky moment"
2020 There are risks to public low-carbon investment strategies
2020 Thinking of central banks as main agents in a transition is risky
2020 Today's economic models can't predict the impacts of climate change
2020 Traditional risk assessment models prevent appreciation of future systemic risk
2020 We should think of future uncertainty via multiple plausible futures, not probabilities
A look at UK risks concluded indirect risks an order of magnitude greater than direct domestic impacts
A number of risks accompany ice loss
Commissioned CNA to do a 2015 scenarios exercise
Concluding Comments - biggest challenge is interactions of risks
Current examples of how existing climate change may have influenced security outcomes
Risk Assessment Part 3 - Systemic Risks
Some of the major impacts
Uncertainty over scarce resources could significantly increase instability
We have tended to look at climate risks too narrowly
I:AgriculturalImpacts
I:FoodSystemShocks
I:SystemicRiskinScenarioPlanning
