The Climate Web | E - Food Security Impacts

E - Food Security Impacts

2012/8 Building climate values through food security

Existing concentration of growing regions for major grains is high

2010 Countries are leasing land abroad for food production purposes

2011 WEG food security profile

2012 The global food trade

2015 Conceptual framework for food supply chain disruption scenarios

2015 Graphical representation of worst-case scenarios for 2016 and 2026 (1)

2020 Four main tipping point characteristics may be identified for early warning signals

2020 Identification of tipping points, showing transition from stable food security conditions to a food crisis resulting from drought in Ethiopia

2020 In this model, the transition of interest is the regime shift from favorable food security conditions into a food crisis, and vice versa.

2020 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

2020 Remotely‐sensed environmental indicators that could be related to droughts or the impacts of droughts on food insecurity

2021 Expert assessment of systemic cascading climate risks likely to lead to food insecurity

2022 Anticipating food security transitions using autocorrelation of remotely sensed soil moisture and food prices

2022 Economies exposed to some portion of shock from Ukraine war

2022 Economies with severe or significant exposure to food, energy, or finance shock from Ukraine war

2022 FAO Food index prices 2019-April 2022

2022 Forecasting size of food security transition using three-month median soil moisture autocorrelation values

2022 LDC and small island state economies with severe exposure to food or energy shock from Ukraine war

2022 Price increases and volatility in wheat and maize prices April 2022 due to Ukraine crisis

2022 Rising prices elevate the alarm for food security and political stability - Ukraine crisis

2022 Sustained periods of soil moisture autocorrelation values indicate a potential food security state shift

2022 Visualization dashboard showing how food security transitions can be detected by changes in soil moisture autocorrelation

2023 Avoiding food loss and waste, shifting to more plant-based diets and improving farming practice through agro-ecological approaches are key leverage points

2023 Data visualisation dashboard showing how food security transitions are detected with remotely sensed soil moisture data and food price data

2023 Example of a tipping point in the context of food security

2030-2050 (2020) Risk of >15% global yield failure increases 2x and 5x

1 in 100 Year Food Shocks May Be 3x as Likely by Mid-century

2011/6 Oxfam Predicts Climate Change will Help Double Food Prices by 2030: “We Are Turning Abundance into Scarcity”

Although remotely‐sensed data currently provide input into drought and food security analysis, their use at the global level is not systematic

Climate change will compound food security and safety risks

Current models leave a lot out at higher temperature ranges

IPCC estimated positive and negative changes in crop yields to 2100

Land conscription for rewilding and food security is a topic whose time has come

Remotely‐sensed environmental data are already being used for drought and food security assessments, though their use is still relatively limited.

The four statistical diagnostics – autocorrelation, skewness, variance and threshold exceedance – offer an opportunity to operationalize an early warning system that detects transitions from one state of food security conditions to a state of a food crisis

Agriculture Sector

Physical Impacts and Risks TOC

Risks - Societal TOC

E - Agriculture Impacts

E - Drought Impacts

E - Impacts by Type

E - Systemic Climate Risk

I:AgriculturalImpacts

I:FoodSystemShocks

I:SystemicRiskinScenarioPlanning

I:AcceleratingClimateChange

I:Agriculture2oCScenario

I:AgricultureSector (Deep Dive)

I:BenefitsofClimateChange

I:BoundingFutureImpacts

I:DietandClimate

I:EconomicsofClimateImpacts

I:FingerprintofClimateChange (Deep Dive)

I:Halophytes

I:ImpactsofDelayingAction

I:IndirectImpactsofClimateChange

I:IPCCUnderestimationofRisk

I:LongTailClimateRisks - Synonym

I:SocioEconomicImpacts

I:SystemicClimateRisk (Deep Dive)

I:UnacceptableClimateChange

I:VisualizingtheFuture

S - 1.5oC Target

S - 1.5 vs 2.0 Degrees

S - 100% Renewable Energy Transition

S - Abrupt Climate Change

S - Agriculture Sector

S - Agriculture Sector Futures

S - Agriculture Sector Impacts

S - Biodiversity Impacts

S - Catastrophic Risk Decision-Making

S - Climate Change Fingerprint to Date

S - Climate Change Systemic Risk

S - Climate Change Tipping Points

S - Climate Emergency Sources

S - Climate Engineering Sources

S - Climate Sensitivity

S - Climate Uncertainties Unknowns

S - Dangerous Climate Impacts

S - Decision-making Under Uncertainty

S - Drought Impacts

S - Extreme Event Impacts

S - Fat and Long Tail Risks of Climate Change

S - Fire Impacts

S - Flood Impacts

S - Forecasted Extreme Events

S - Human Extinction

S - Hurricanes/Cyclones

S - Ice Impacts

S - Impact Attribution

S - Impacts by Region

S - Impacts by Timing

S - Impacts By Degree

S - Impacts of SLR

S - Managing Extreme Event Risk

S - Modeling Extreme Events

S - Ocean Impacts

S - Precipitation Impacts

S - Probabilistic Decision-Making

S - SocioEconomic Impacts

S - Species Impacts

S - Storm Surge

S - Systemic Risk

S - Temperature Impacts

S - Worst Case Climate Change

N - 1.5oC Target

N - 100% Renewable Future

N - Accelerating/Worsening Climate Change

N - Agriculture Impacts

N - Biodiversity and Ecosystem Impacts

N - Changing Climate Probabilities

N - Climate and Wine

N - Climate Change and Hurricane Harvey

N - Climate Change and Hurricanes

N - Climate Change Tipping Points

N - Climate Emergency

N - Climate Sensitivity

N - Drought Impacts

N - Economic Impacts

N - Extreme Events

N - Fat and Long Tail Risks From Climate Change

N - Fire Impacts

N - Flooding Impacts

N - Food Security

N - Food Waste

N - Forestry Impacts

N - Glacier Impacts

N - Health Impacts

N - Human Extinction

N - IPCC 1.5 Degrees Report

N - Ocean Acidification

N - Sports Impacts

N - Systemic Climate Risk

N - Temperature Impacts

N - US Extremes

N - Water Impacts

T - Climate Emergency Networks

T - Climate Impact Networks

T - Climate Impact Tracking

T - Extreme Events Network

T - Impact Assessment

T - Risk Assessment

T - SLR Sea Level Rise Visualizations

T - Systemic Risk

T - Visualizing Future Impacts

T - Visualizing the Temperature Record

V - Abrupt Change/Climate Disruption

V - Arctic and Antarctic

V - Climate Emergency

V - Climate Futures

V - Extreme Events

V - Oceans and Climate

V - SLR Sea Level Rise

V - Systemic Climate Risk

V - Temperature Change

Q - Climate Impacts

E - 1.5 Degree Target

E - 1 Degree 350 ppm Scenario

E - 2 Degree 450 PPM Pathway

E - 3-4 Degree Scenario

E - 100% Renewable Transition

E - Agricultural Sector

E - Biodiversity Impacts

E - Carbon Sink Impacts

E - Changing Probability Distributions

E - Climate Change and Harvey

E - Climate Change and Hurricanes

E - Climate Change Tipping Points

E - Climate Emergency Extracts

E - Climate Impact on Returns

E - Climate Impacts/Risks by Sector

E - Climate Sensitivity

E - Ecosystem Impacts

E - Extreme Event Impacts

E - Fingerprint - Fire Regimes

E - Fire Impacts

E - Glacier Loss Impacts

E - Human Conflict Impacts

E - Human Health Impacts

E - Impacts by Degree

E - Impacts by Time Period

E - Impacts of SLR

E - Infrastructure Impacts

E - Long Tail Risk Impacts

E - Ocean Ice Impacts

E - Ocean Impacts

E - Permafrost Impacts

E - Precipitation Impacts

E - Security and Climate

E - Socioeconomic Impacts

E - Species Impacts

E - Stranded Assets - Value at Risk from Policy

E - Temperature Impacts

E - Timeline Impacts

E - Underestimating Climate Risks

E - Water Stress Impacts

E - Wine and Climate

E - Worst Case Climate Change

K - Energy Impacts

Agriculture

Regenerative Agriculture

2008 GHG releases by permafrost

2010 Potential distances species will have to cover to stay at the same temperature

2011 Aggregated climate change index shows future change relative to current variability

2012 Changes in per capita ag production 1961-2005

2014 Average summer temperatures across the U.S.

2014 Change in national yield for crops by time and scenario (assuming NO CO2 fertilization)

2014 Impacts on key crops by scenario (assuming CO2 fertilization)

2014 Impacts on key crops by scenario (assuming NO CO2 fertilization)

2014 Losses are likely to become MUCH more frequent

2014 Per capita direct costs by county distribution

2014 Percentage of west in summer drought

2014 Relied on statistical studies isolating effect of temp and precip on U.S. crops

2014 State level per capita direct costs

2015 Australian emissions trends vs. IPCC carbon budget

2015 Australian gross revenue trajectories based on global climate responses

2015 Systemic risk in 2015 and 2035

2015 Timeline of evaluated systemic risks

2016 Mapping out the links between financial and climate fragility

2017 A comprehensive approach to social foundations and ecological boundaries

2017 Assets at potential risk of climate stranding

2017 Estimated ratio of 2099 GDP to 2010 GDP with and without climate change

2017 Number of deadly temperature days by 2100

2018 2100 Primary Energy Mix under Alternative Scenarios

2018 Growing number of extreme events and losses

2018 The growing potential for environmental migration

2019 Alternative economic models - Equilibrium vs. non-equilibrium

2019 Changes in global levelized energy costs 2010-2018

2019 How the energy transition could impact GDP based on alternative models

2019 Overview of the climate stress test framework

2019 Representative high-level scenarios for climate stress tests

2019 Sensitivity analysis for energy sector risk

2020 Atmospheric CO2 and regional emissions over 12,000 years

2020 Cascading potential climate tipping points based on temperature outcomes

2020 Chain reactions in climate impacts

2020 Climate crisis as systemic risk: evidence of economic impacts

2020 Climate crisis as systemic risk: impacts on different economic sectors

2020 Climate related risks, opportunities, and financial impacts

2020 Demand and supply shocks from climate change

2020 Evolution of energy systems in absolute and relative terms

2020 How climate change will affect where crops are grown

2020 How physical and transition risks could materialize

2020 Impact of climate change on GDP

2020 More than half of syndicated lending of US banks subject to climate risk

2020 Role of Federal Reserve in addressing climate change

Headings - Extracted Materials

E - Food Security Impacts

Extracted Graphics | Extracted Ideas

Global Food Shock as Systemic Risk

Ukraine War and Low Carbon Transition