S - Adaptation Frame

S - Adapting to Climate Change Under Uncertainty

S - Atmospheric Trust Litigation

S - Bounding Global SLR

S - Business Adaptation/Resilience

S - Business Decision-Making with Climate Uncertainty

S - Carbon Pricing Sources

S - CCS CCUS

S - CCS Critiques

S - CCS Risks

S - CCS Technologies

S - Climate Change Fingerprint to Date

S - Climate Change Tipping Points

S - Climate Emergency Sources

S - Climate Ethics Morals Religion

S - Climate Modeling

S - Climate Risk (Societal)

S - Climate Uncertainties Unknowns

S - CO2 Utilization

S - Collective Action

S - Economics Forecasting

S - Ecosystem Restoration

S - Environmental and Climate Storytelling

S - Environmental Migrants

S - Evaluating Business Responses

S - Evaluating Voluntary Measures

S - Fire Impacts

S - Forestry Emissions and Mitigation

S - Green Growth

S - Green Growth Investment Barriers

S - IAMs Integrated Assessment Models

S - Impact Attribution

S - Impact Modeling

S - Modeling Extreme Events

S - Natural Capital

S - Negative Emissions

S - Observed vs. Modeled Impacts

S - Politics and Policy

S - Public Perceptions of CCS

S - SCC Social Cost of Carbon

S - Science Top Level

S - Wicked Problems

N - Business and Deforestation

N - Carbon Dioxide Removal - CDR

N - Carbon Negative

N - Carbon Pricing News - Topical

N - CCS Carbon Capture and Storage

N - CCS Critiques

N - CCS Law and Policy

N - CCS Technologies

N - CCUS CO2 Utilization

N - Climate Change Fingerprint

N - Climate Models

N - Ecosystem Restoration

N - Evaluating Business Action

N - Evaluating Risk Disclosure

N - Forestry Mitigation

N - Gaming and Climate Communication

N - Politics and Policy

N - SCC Social Cost of Carbon News

N - Science Top Level

N - Sector Responses

N - Soil Carbon Sequestration

N - Systems Thinking

T - CCS and CCUS

T - Climate Impact Tracking

T - Communication Tools

T - Nature-Based Solutions

T - Visualizing Future Impacts

V - Climate Solutions

E - Catastrophe Modeling

E - CCS and CCUS

E - Climate Change Fingerprint

E - Climate Opportunities

E - CO2 Air Capture

E - Communicating shifting extremes

E - Green Growth Policies

E - IAM Uncertainties and Forecasts

E - International Policies

E - Negative Emissions Technologies

E - Negotiating a Global Carbon Price

E - Public Policy

E - Science-based targets

E - Shifting Extremes

E - Visualizing Climate Change

S - Adaptation Economics

S - Cost-Benefit Analysis

S - Economic Futures

S - Economic Modeling

S - Green New Deal

S - Limits to Growth

S - Mitigation Economics

S - Systemic Risk

N - Alternative Economic Models

N - Economic Impacts

N - Economics Top Level

N - Green Growth Climate Finance

N - Green New Deal

N - Limits to Growth

N - Mitigation Economics

T - Behavioral Economics - Cognitive

T - Climate Finance

T - Economics Websites, Blogs, FB Home Pages

T - Green Growth

T - Green New Deal

T - Limits to Growth

T - Organized Economics Subtopics

V - Economics Videos

V - Green New Deal

V - SCC Social Cost of Carbon

C - Economics

E - Alternative Economics

E - Carbon Pricing Extracts

E - Cost Benefit Analysis

E - Economic Modeling

E - Economic thinking as part of climate problem

E - IAM Uncertainties and Forecasts

E - Impact Specific Economics

E - MACC Curves

E - Mitigation Economics

E - Societal Economics

E - Adaptation Economics

G - Adaptation Economics

I:SCCandtheSternReport

I:SCCasCarbonPrice

I:SCCasRiskManagement

I:SCCCritiques

I:SCCDeployment

I:SCCIncorporationofUncertainty

I:SCCLimits

I:UltimateCostofCarbon

I:USGovernmentSCC

S - Economic Discounting

S - Evaluating SCC Estimates

S - Federal SCC Determination

S - IAMs Integrated Assessment Models

S - Intergenerational Decisionmaking

S - Quantifying Economic Impacts

S - SCC and Risk Adversity

S - SCC Applications

S - SCC Critiques

S - SCC Estimates

S - SCC in Litigation

S - SCC in Policy

S - SCC Social Cost of Carbon

S - SCC Uncertainties

S - Sectoral Social Costs

N - Economic Discounting

N - SCC Applications

N - SCC Critiques

N - SCC in Litigation

N - SCC Introduction

N - SCC Risk Averse

N - SCC Social Cost of Carbon News

N - The Right SCC?

T - SCC Networks

T - Social Cost of Carbon Individuals

Topical Websites, Blogs, FB Home Pages

V - SCC Social Cost of Carbon

E - A Negative SCC

E - Implications of Discounting Future Damages

E - Risks of SCC Reliance

E - SCC Critiques

E - UCC Ultimate Cost of Carbon

E - Catastrophe Modeling

E - Climate Uncertainty

E - Expert Elicitation

E - Model Reliability

2011/1 Global Surface Temperature Anomalies

1990-2300 (1996) Global temperature change associated with SLR estimates

1995 Projected geographic distribution of global temperature change based on 2x CO2

1995 Projected temperature change to 2070

2009 Climate change modeling has gotten a lot better

2010 Annual variation in national precipitation estimates based on 53 model runs using 24 models

2010 Modeled sensitivity per 1000 GTs emissions

2011 The increasing resolution of climate models

2011 The many steps associated with estimating extreme event damages

2012 There's huge uncertainty about really long-term outcomes

2014 Related concentrations to temperature based on these runs

2017 The ice core data is key because it tracks the development of humans

2021 Current and proposed connections between climate research and business

Applying Bayes' Theorem to Climate Change Trends

Breakdown of these conclusions by resources and data

Climate models have evolved significantly

CMIP6 Global Climate Model Projections

Computer models of the atmosphere

Dealing with the water cycle

Estimated warming in 2100 based on revisions in Transient Climate Response estimates

Issue of measurement site bias appears a red herring

1983 Key components of the analytical methodology

Modeling the climate system

Models Have to Grapple With Several Sources of Uncertainty

Most scenarios lead to a high probability of exceeding 2 degrees of change

Muller's Review of the Temperature Record

No evidence found in review

Research need to focus on model verification

Scenarios make a big difference 2050 to 2100, making some scenarios much riskier than others

Temperature probabilities vary widely across the scenarios

Testing the IPCC Hypothesis Over the Short Term

The evolution of climate models

The family tree of GCMs

The IPCC's Estimates Were Too High

The models have a lot to contend with

The Noise Can Easily Obscure the Signal

The reason for model downscaling

There has been a lot of evolution in models since 1970s

Uncertainties in climate change projections come from several sources, varying over time

Warming and Colling Influences Since 1750 - NAS Public

We know that models have uncertainties

1983 Yearly Modeling Sequence

Abstract

Be very careful about misreading model results

GCMs are not valid tools for examining how climate will change at the scale of physical assets

The desire of governments, regulators, standard-setters, and business to assess climate risk requires urgent understanding of the uses and limitations of climate model information

The IPCC has used very different scenario approaches over time

2015 Infographic - beef subsidies in Brazil

2015 Infographic - timber subsidies Indonesia

2015 Infographic palm oil subsidies in Indonesi

2015 Infographic soy subsidies in Brazil

Infographic - Disastrous Spending Federal disaster relief

Infographic - How Much Does Solar Power Cost?

Infographic - Natural Capital

Infographic - Putting the worlds money supply into perspective

Infographic - the costs of climate change

Infographic - The value of the Great Barrier Reef to Australia

Infographic - Why global carbon emissions fell in 2014

Infographic Disaster Risk Finance: Protecting Livelihoods and Developme

E - Alternative Economics

E - Carbon Pricing Extracts

E - Climate and Economic Growth

E - Climate Opportunities

E - Cost Benefit Analysis

E - Economic Forecasting

E - Economic Modeling

E - Economic Policymaking

E - Economic thinking as part of climate problem

E - Ecosystem Services

E - Extreme Event Costs

E - GDP Scenarios

E - Impact Specific Economics

E - Implications of Discounting Future Damages

E - Low Carbon Transition Costs

E - MACC Curves

E - Mitigation Economics

E - Mitigation Potentials by Cost

E - Societal Economics

E - Technology Economics

Interactive Graphic - Farming and the Green economy

2001 Economics costs of climate change up to 6^o C

2006 Forecasting the cost of future climate change mitigation

2006 The optimal amount of climate change mitigation in a given time period

2007 Estimated geographical impacts of 2.5 and 6 degrees C of warming

2008 Nuclear is the cheapest option if we price carbon

2009 Conventional vs. expansive estimate of climate change impact on GDP

2009 How discount rates affect different adaptation measures

2010 Annualized U.S. loss trend - water impacts

2010 Discounted U.S. damages (direct water supply)

2010 Economics of climate change in Chicago by 2070-2099

2010 National employment impacts

2010 Second order uncertainty is the uncertainty in the uncertainty

2010 Welfare probabilities shown against $50 and $500 carbon taxes

2011 Delayed climate policy could cost $8 trillion by 2030

2011 Forecasts in figure form - shaded area showing range of legislative proposals

2011 Potential per capita GDP costs of climate change to 2200

2011 The difficult of quantifying ecosystem costs

2011 There is big uncertainty about forecasted prices even given probram design

2013 Economic losses related to natural catastrophes

2013 Forecasting global baseline CO2 emissions

2013 Only a relatively small (and declining) part of the U.S. economy is really vulnerable to climate change.

2013 SCC models are commonly characterized by a continued growth trajectory, regardless of climate change

2013 There is no such thing as one number for the SCC

2013 With limited participation number goes to 4 degrees.

2014 Combined direct impact costs vs. integrated costs

2014 Costs of CO2 mitigation

2014 Direct costs and benefits by state, historical hurricane, market mortality

2014 Direct costs and benefits by state, projected hurricane, VSL mortality cost

2014 If the forecasted targets are achieved through P&Ms or targets, what's the cost? (CO2eq)

2014 Per capita county direct costs from change in energy costs

2014 Per capita county-level labor productivity impacts

2014 Per capita direct costs by county distribution

2014 Per capita increase in average annual storm damages due to SLR

2014 Per capita increase in state coastal damages due to SLR alone

2014 Per capita increase in state coastal damages due to SLR and potential hurricane activity change

2014 Per capita state cost increases from crime

2014 State level per capita direct costs

2014 State level per capita direct costs

2015/8 Limiting climate change can save $1.8 Trillion in fuel spend, and $100 Trillion in damages

2015 9. But implications differ by sector, as shown here.

2015 14. But costs are higher, unless you factor in climate and health savings

2015 Action scenario

2015 And will continue to fall

2015 And wind and solar costs are evolving quickly

2015 Annual electricity production and fossil fuel role to 2040

2015 Changes in energy spend by scenario

2015 Comparing Citi and IEA solar and wind deployment

2015 Economic impact of climate change on the world

2015 Inaction scenario

2015 Net and cumulative incremental costs of the action scenario

2015 REDD Finance vs. agricultural and biofuels subsidies in Brazil and Indonesia

2015 The non-climate benefits and costs of CO2

2015 The relative economics of offsets

2015 Value of potentially unburnable carbon

2016 Estimated cost of natural disasters of 2012 in U.S.

2016 Mapping GHG productivity along value chains

2016 Mapping GHG productivity along value chains

2016 Sector emissions vs. value added

2016 Sectors are affected differently by climate change

2017 17 estimates of the GDP impact of climate change plotted as a least squares - 5 to 95% confidence interval

2017 Billion-Dollar Weather

2017 Recent cost trends for selected technologies

2017 Technology will create opportunities for energy savings and resource productivity

2020 CBO's projections over different time periods

2020 Charting the CBO's methodology

2020 Comparing CBO estimates to two other studies

2020 Estimated cost of an HVDC system

2020 Estimated Costs and Benefits of Infrastructure 3.0

2020 Estimates of economic damage to 2100

2020 HVDC Capital and Maintenance costs by phase

2020 North America’s average cost of energy between 2009 and 2017

2020 Potential new jobs based on payback and interest rate

2020 The overall impact of climate change to 2050

2020 U.S. energy productivity 1950-2019

2021 Billion dollar disasters 1980 - 2020

2030 (2017) Climate change could raise extreme poverty significantly

2100 (2014) Change in per capita direct energy expenditure by state for RCP 8.5 scenario

2100 (2014) Per capita state-level direct costs from increasing mortality under RCP 8.5 scenario

A lot more maritime reductions available by 2030

Alternative fittings of the line to the data

And huge questions about be raised about the entire discounting approach

Attractive adaptation options can mitigate risk increases

Best estimate economics across control technologies and one technology combination, 100% in region

But with inefficiency and discounting, a very different number - 3.8 degrees.

Case study of 37 forecasted energy impacts

CCS costs vs other technologies

Change in hydropower output 2020s and 2050s (no adaptation)

Change in maximum catch potential 2050s

Change in thermoelectric power output 2020s and 2050s (no adaptaiton)

Confidence in climate change health impacts

Costs of weather and climate natural disasters

Country-level income projections with and without climate change

Current Impacts - Human health

Declining EV battery costs

Decreasing milk production

Decreasing wine grape quality

E - Adaptation Economics

Economic analysis makes clear that THE economic alternative is to reduce coal use.

Economic benefits of significantly reducing emissions

Economic effects reported in American Climate Prospectus Study

Estimated cost of adapting to sea level rise, 2100

Estimates of welfare loss due to dlimate change in 16 studies

Expected hurricane losses

Expected losses across scenarios

Expected losses across the scenarios

Expected losses by asset type

Expected losses under scenarios

Forecast effect of temperature changes on regional economies

G - Adaptation Economics

Global economic impacts of CC on Port revenues

Global water change impact on hydropower and thermoelectric power to 2100

Globally costs depend significantly on how widespread participation is.

Graphic - How big a change are we talking about?

How much can you save switching to solar?

Impacts of climate change on risk capital requirements

Internalizing Externalities

Mapping global GHG productivity along value chains

Most significantly affected states in population, income

Multiple models have to be linked to estimate economic impacts

One estimate suggests quantified economic costs doubles by 2040

Our normal approach to time preference doesn't work

Overall CC costs in 2030 compared to baseline

Overall CC costs in 2050 compared to baseline

Overcall CC costs in 2100 compared to baseline

Power capacity and substation capacities vary with temperature

Power demands in India significantly affected by CC

Powerplants will face reductions in usable capacity

PV could have a significant impact on economics of utilties

Renewable energy electricity costs are falling

Sectoral interpolated (1-99% CI) risks

Significant maritime reductions are available today

So many of the emissions reductions in shipping are profitable, but they won't happen

Solar Parity Map

Subsidies of more than $1 trillion/year support low resource prices

Summary of potential costs - increasing 4x to 2080

Survey of levelized cost of energy studies

The cost-benefit approach to adaptation

The impact of potential increased hurricane activity

The impacts we're dealing with aren't manageable and at the margin

The middle class

The problem of timing, with much of the benefit coming after 2050.

200X The relative economics of solar energy

The role of cost-benefit in evaluating adaptation measures

The three economies

There are the economic externalities

Value of wetland services

What's the right discount rate?

A wide range of climate sensitivity estimates

All the critical components of a 3.0 infrastructure are experiencing plunging exponential cost curves, creating a virtuous cycle.

An economic approach to climate change is a dead end

Business action and climate capitalism has been proven a dead end

CBO doesn't know where non-captured impacts will be net positive or negative

CBO's estimates primarily driven by temperature and precipitation impacts

Economic models struggle to quantify potentially catastrophic outcomes

Economic Opportunities and Jobs

Estimates of the economic implications of climate tend tend to be modest

Highlights of $16 Trillion Investment

Is cost-benefit analysis even the right tool?

It is hard to see warming being reduced to less than 3oC without geoengineering

Some economic analysis - e.g. hurricanes in NYC, suggests very high costs of CC

Some economists argue that addressing GHG emissions will be beneficial on net

The bottom line is that the probability of catastrophic outcomes is increasing

The challenge of CC cost-benefit analysis

The projection is subject to a great deal of uncertainty

The Stern Review framed climate change as a question of risk management

Thinking of climate as a probability distribution

Three problems with an SCC value

U.S. and global economy may be only 16% efficient

Valuing climate risks does not generate a good measure of risks

What if the economic question is phrased differently?

E - A Negative SCC

E - Implications of Discounting Future Damages

E - Risks of SCC Reliance

E - SCC as Carbon Price

E - SCC Critiques

E - UCC Ultimate Cost of Carbon

How could the SCC be deployed?

2018/10 New York sues ExxonMobil for falsely claiming use of an internal price on carbon, which was portrayed as managing future regulatory risk

2010 Confidence Interval Temperature Changes For Alternative Models

2010 Final analysis - SCC values at alternative discounts, and 95% percentile

2011 The many steps associated with estimating extreme event damages

2013 SCC models are commonly characterized by a continued growth trajectory, regardless of climate change

2013 There is no such thing as one number for the SCC

2015 The non-climate benefits and costs of CO2

2016 Although a reliability-based shadow price gives very different results

2016 Box plots for economic damages and social cost of carbon

2016 But economic value of ocean services really very small against GDP

2016 Comparing DICE16 SCC to other estimates

2016 Impact of WAIS collapse by 2200 modest in terms of suggested SCC

2016 Impact of WAIS collapse by 2200 modest in terms of suggested SCC

2016 Range of federal SCC estimates

2016 SCC Estimate by Discount Rate

2016 SCC Estimate in Table Form

2016 SCC values in 2020 and 2100 for Baseline and 2oC pathways

2016 Social cost of carbon estimates based on DICE 16

2017 Carbon prices vs SCC estimates around the world

2017 Framework for Estimating the SCC

2017 Impact of discount rate over the long term

2017 Incremental SCC associated with emitting 3.7 GTs CO2 in 2020

2017 SCC vs shadow price: implicit vs explicit valuation of climate change damages

2017 The climate module as incorporated into the SCC

2018 Estimates of global SCC at different discount rates 2015-2050

2020 Estimating the NPV of income shock resulting from climate change

2021 Current SCC is behind frontier science

2021 Current US SCC used to justify rollback of fuel economy standards

2021 Distribution of global consumption per capital in 2100 w and w/o tipping points

2021 Recommendations for updating the U.S. SCC

2021 Seven ingredients for calculating the SCC

2021 The impact of including tipping points on estimated SCC

Distribution of global consumption per capital in 2050 w and w/o tipping points

Distribution of the % change in SCC due to tipping points

Estimated probability density function for a 3% SCC

Estimates of SCC in 2010

Revised 2013 Social Cost of CO2, 2010-2050 ($2007)

The causal change inferred by the SCC

The social cost of carbon emissions

Took future GDP/ton emissions divided by SCC to get benefit cost ratio

USG SCC estimates in 2010 and 2013, based on 150,000 model runs

At the end of the day these economic discussions run into an ethical brick wall

Biden administration should immediately update the SCC by returning to the 2013 IWG’s approach

Calculate an expected SCC increase of 43% due to tipping points

How confident are we in SCC estimates?

How did the SCC factor into estimating the benefits of new microwave standby power standards?

Impose the social cost of carbon on extraction of fossil fuels from public lands

LW Webinar - Continued Focus on Social Cost of Carbon Estimates

New guidelines may increase mandated mitigation by 60 percent

Social Cost of Carbon Special Materials

The machinery is being constructed to impose a carbon tax through the back door

The SCC in economic decision-making

Three problems with an SCC value

Tipping points have significant implications for thinking about SCC

Trusting the political process for a "scientific solution" is unscientific

What decisions could the SCC significantly affect?

What is the current SCC value?

What limitations were identified in the 2010 SCC estimates?

Why does risk management not rely on "expected" values?