2007 Estimates of climate sensitivity vary widely

2007 The long tail of climate sensitivity

2008 How much sensitivity matters

2009 Risk of temperature directly related to concentrations, and varies widely over time

2010 Linking temperature to cumulative emissions

2010 Modeled sensitivity per 1000 GTs emissions

2010 Relating emissions trajectories to near-term and long-term warming

2011 Estimates of climate sensitivity have varied widely

2011 Probability distributions of climate sensitivity

2011 The tail of scientific uncertainty is longer than we thought

2011 Uncertainty - Climate sensitivity

2011 Uncertainty in climate sensitivity

2014 Estimated Equilibrium climate sensitivity

2014 Implications of climate sensitivity

2014 Transient climate response

2014 Where Climate Sensitivity Estimates Come From

Feedbacks with what impact?

Sea Level Rise SLR

Taylor: We just don't know a lot of key things about climate change. It all depends on the planetary sensitivity

The IPCC considers a wide range of values

2015 Infographic - beef subsidies in Brazil

2015 Infographic - timber subsidies Indonesia

2015 Infographic palm oil subsidies in Indonesi

2015 Infographic soy subsidies in Brazil

Infographic - Disastrous Spending Federal disaster relief

Infographic - How Much Does Solar Power Cost?

Infographic - Natural Capital

Infographic - Putting the worlds money supply into perspective

Infographic - the costs of climate change

Infographic - The value of the Great Barrier Reef to Australia

Infographic - Why global carbon emissions fell in 2014

Infographic Disaster Risk Finance: Protecting Livelihoods and Developme

E - Alternative Economics

E - Carbon Pricing Extracts

E - Climate and Economic Growth

E - Climate Opportunities

E - Cost Benefit Analysis

E - Economic Forecasting

E - Economic Modeling

E - Economic Policymaking

E - Economic thinking as part of climate problem

E - Ecosystem Services

E - Extreme Event Costs

E - GDP Scenarios

E - Impact Specific Economics

E - Implications of Discounting Future Damages

E - Integrated Assessment Modeling

E - Low Carbon Transition Costs

E - MACC Curves

E - Mitigation Economics

E - Mitigation Potentials by Cost

E - SCC Social Cost of Carbon

E - Societal Economics

E - Technology Economics

Interactive Graphic - Farming and the Green economy

2001 Economics costs of climate change up to 6^o C

2006 Forecasting the cost of future climate change mitigation

2006 The optimal amount of climate change mitigation in a given time period

2007 Estimated geographical impacts of 2.5 and 6 degrees C of warming

2008 Nuclear is the cheapest option if we price carbon

2009 Conventional vs. expansive estimate of climate change impact on GDP

2009 How discount rates affect different adaptation measures

2010 Annualized U.S. loss trend - water impacts

2010 Discounted U.S. damages (direct water supply)

2010 Economics of climate change in Chicago by 2070-2099

2010 National employment impacts

2010 Second order uncertainty is the uncertainty in the uncertainty

2010 Welfare probabilities shown against $50 and $500 carbon taxes

2011 Delayed climate policy could cost $8 trillion by 2030

2011 Forecasts in figure form - shaded area showing range of legislative proposals

2011 Potential per capita GDP costs of climate change to 2200

2011 The difficult of quantifying ecosystem costs

2011 There is big uncertainty about forecasted prices even given probram design

2013 Economic losses related to natural catastrophes

2013 Forecasting global baseline CO2 emissions

2013 Only a relatively small (and declining) part of the U.S. economy is really vulnerable to climate change.

2013 SCC models are commonly characterized by a continued growth trajectory, regardless of climate change

2013 There is no such thing as one number for the SCC

2013 With limited participation number goes to 4 degrees.

2014 Combined direct impact costs vs. integrated costs

2014 Costs of CO2 mitigation

2014 Direct costs and benefits by state, historical hurricane, market mortality

2014 Direct costs and benefits by state, projected hurricane, VSL mortality cost

2014 If the forecasted targets are achieved through P&Ms or targets, what's the cost? (CO2eq)

2014 Per capita county direct costs from change in energy costs

2014 Per capita county-level labor productivity impacts

2014 Per capita direct costs by county distribution

2014 Per capita increase in average annual storm damages due to SLR

2014 Per capita increase in state coastal damages due to SLR alone

2014 Per capita increase in state coastal damages due to SLR and potential hurricane activity change

2014 Per capita state cost increases from crime

2014 State level per capita direct costs

2014 State level per capita direct costs

2015/8 Limiting climate change can save $1.8 Trillion in fuel spend, and $100 Trillion in damages

2015 9. But implications differ by sector, as shown here.

2015 14. But costs are higher, unless you factor in climate and health savings

2015 Action scenario

2015 And will continue to fall

2015 And wind and solar costs are evolving quickly

2015 Annual electricity production and fossil fuel role to 2040

2015 Changes in energy spend by scenario

2015 Comparing Citi and IEA solar and wind deployment

2015 Economic impact of climate change on the world

2015 Inaction scenario

2015 Net and cumulative incremental costs of the action scenario

2015 REDD Finance vs. agricultural and biofuels subsidies in Brazil and Indonesia

2015 The non-climate benefits and costs of CO2

2015 The relative economics of offsets

2015 Value of potentially unburnable carbon

2016 Estimated cost of natural disasters of 2012 in U.S.

2016 Mapping GHG productivity along value chains

2016 Mapping GHG productivity along value chains

2016 Sector emissions vs. value added

2016 Sectors are affected differently by climate change

2017 17 estimates of the GDP impact of climate change plotted as a least squares - 5 to 95% confidence interval

2017 Billion-Dollar Weather

2017 Recent cost trends for selected technologies

2017 Technology will create opportunities for energy savings and resource productivity

2020 CBO's projections over different time periods

2020 Charting the CBO's methodology

2020 Comparing CBO estimates to two other studies

2020 Estimated cost of an HVDC system

2020 Estimated Costs and Benefits of Infrastructure 3.0

2020 Estimates of economic damage to 2100

2020 HVDC Capital and Maintenance costs by phase

2020 North America’s average cost of energy between 2009 and 2017

2020 Potential new jobs based on payback and interest rate

2020 The overall impact of climate change to 2050

2020 U.S. energy productivity 1950-2019

2021 Billion dollar disasters 1980 - 2020

2030 (2017) Climate change could raise extreme poverty significantly

2100 (2014) Change in per capita direct energy expenditure by state for RCP 8.5 scenario

2100 (2014) Per capita state-level direct costs from increasing mortality under RCP 8.5 scenario

A lot more maritime reductions available by 2030

Alternative fittings of the line to the data

And huge questions about be raised about the entire discounting approach

Attractive adaptation options can mitigate risk increases

Best estimate economics across control technologies and one technology combination, 100% in region

But with inefficiency and discounting, a very different number - 3.8 degrees.

Case study of 37 forecasted energy impacts

CCS costs vs other technologies

Change in hydropower output 2020s and 2050s (no adaptation)

Change in maximum catch potential 2050s

Change in thermoelectric power output 2020s and 2050s (no adaptaiton)

Confidence in climate change health impacts

Costs of weather and climate natural disasters

Country-level income projections with and without climate change

Current Impacts - Human health

Declining EV battery costs

Decreasing milk production

Decreasing wine grape quality

E - Adaptation Economics

Economic analysis makes clear that THE economic alternative is to reduce coal use.

Economic benefits of significantly reducing emissions

Economic effects reported in American Climate Prospectus Study

Estimated cost of adapting to sea level rise, 2100

Estimates of welfare loss due to dlimate change in 16 studies

Expected hurricane losses

Expected losses across scenarios

Expected losses across the scenarios

Expected losses by asset type

Expected losses under scenarios

Forecast effect of temperature changes on regional economies

G - Adaptation Economics

Global economic impacts of CC on Port revenues

Global water change impact on hydropower and thermoelectric power to 2100

Globally costs depend significantly on how widespread participation is.

Graphic - How big a change are we talking about?

How much can you save switching to solar?

Impacts of climate change on risk capital requirements

Internalizing Externalities

Mapping global GHG productivity along value chains

Most significantly affected states in population, income

Multiple models have to be linked to estimate economic impacts

One estimate suggests quantified economic costs doubles by 2040

Our normal approach to time preference doesn't work

Overall CC costs in 2030 compared to baseline

Overall CC costs in 2050 compared to baseline

Overcall CC costs in 2100 compared to baseline

Power capacity and substation capacities vary with temperature

Power demands in India significantly affected by CC

Powerplants will face reductions in usable capacity

PV could have a significant impact on economics of utilties

Renewable energy electricity costs are falling

Sectoral interpolated (1-99% CI) risks

Significant maritime reductions are available today

So many of the emissions reductions in shipping are profitable, but they won't happen

Solar Parity Map

Subsidies of more than $1 trillion/year support low resource prices

Summary of potential costs - increasing 4x to 2080

Survey of levelized cost of energy studies

The cost-benefit approach to adaptation

The impact of potential increased hurricane activity

The impacts we're dealing with aren't manageable and at the margin

The middle class

The problem of timing, with much of the benefit coming after 2050.

200X The relative economics of solar energy

The role of cost-benefit in evaluating adaptation measures

The three economies

There are the economic externalities

Value of wetland services

What's the right discount rate?

All the critical components of a 3.0 infrastructure are experiencing plunging exponential cost curves, creating a virtuous cycle.

An economic approach to climate change is a dead end

Business action and climate capitalism has been proven a dead end

CBO doesn't know where non-captured impacts will be net positive or negative

CBO's estimates primarily driven by temperature and precipitation impacts

Economic models struggle to quantify potentially catastrophic outcomes

Economic Opportunities and Jobs

Estimates of the economic implications of climate tend tend to be modest

Highlights of $16 Trillion Investment

Is cost-benefit analysis even the right tool?

It is hard to see warming being reduced to less than 3oC without geoengineering

Some economic analysis - e.g. hurricanes in NYC, suggests very high costs of CC

Some economists argue that addressing GHG emissions will be beneficial on net

The bottom line is that the probability of catastrophic outcomes is increasing

The challenge of CC cost-benefit analysis

The projection is subject to a great deal of uncertainty

The Stern Review framed climate change as a question of risk management

Thinking of climate as a probability distribution

Three problems with an SCC value

U.S. and global economy may be only 16% efficient

Valuing climate risks does not generate a good measure of risks

What if the economic question is phrased differently?

2018 Projections of internal climate migrants by 2050

2020 Average September sea ice extent - 1980 2019

2020 BAU vs. 1.5 and 2oC emissions scenarios

2020 Change in emissions intensity required to meet 2oC target

2020 Cumulative emissions to 2100 and probability of exceeding 2oC target

2020 Emissions reductions by sector required to meet 2oC target

2020 Estimating the NPV of income shock resulting from climate change

2020 GHG emissions and sinks 1960-2017

2020 Global tree cover loss 2001 - 2019

2020 Historical experience CO2 vs. temp. and SLR

2020 Impact of climate change on GDP

2020 Impact of sea level rise

2020 Worldwide extreme weather events 1980-2019

Economic models struggle to quantify potentially catastrophic outcomes

Estimates of the economic implications of climate tend tend to be modest

It is hard to see warming being reduced to less than 3oC without geoengineering

The bottom line is that the probability of catastrophic outcomes is increasing

Thinking of climate as a probability distribution