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Carbon Pricing TOC
I:BusinessCarbonPricingAdvocacy
I:CapandTrade
I:CarbonOffsetPrices
I:CarbonOffsetsandCarbonPricing
I:CarbonPriceCorridor
I:CarbonPriceForecasting
I:CarbonPricingandEmissionsReductions
I:CarbonPricingandTechnologyInnovation
I:CarbonPricingHistoryandTrends
I:CarbonPricingImpacts
I:CarbonPricinginScenarioPlanning
I:CarbonPricingPoliticalFeasibility
I:CarbonPricingviaCarbonMarkets
I:CarbonPricingwithComplementaryPolicies
I:CarbonTaxation
I:ClimateExactions
I:ConsumptionBasedCarbonPricing
I:CurrentDamagesasCarbonPrice
I:EvaluatingBCsCarbonTax
I:EvaluatingCarbonPricing
I:GlobalCarbonPricing
I:ImplicitCarbonPricing
I:InternalCarbonPricing
I:PolicyasCarbonPricing
I:RCCRiskCostofCarbonasCarbonPrice
I:SCCasCarbonPrice
I:SVMASocialValueofMitigationAction
I:TargetBasedCarbonPricing
I:UseofCarbonRevenues
S - Carbon Markets
S - Carbon Price Forecasts
S - Carbon Pricing Futures
S - Carbon Pricing History and Trends
S - Carbon Pricing in the Electricity Sector
S - Carbon Pricing Policy as Business Risk
S - Carbon Pricing Sources
S - Carbon Pricing System Design
S - Evaluating Carbon Pricing
S - Impacts of Pricing Carbon
S - Internal Corporate Carbon Pricing
S - National and Global Carbon Pricing
S - SCC Social Cost of Carbon
S - State and Local Carbon Pricing
S - Taxing Carbon
S - Why and How of Pricing Carbon
N - Carbon Price Forecasting
N - Carbon Pricing Advocacy
N - Carbon Pricing Impacts
N - Carbon Pricing News - Topical
N - Carbon Pricing Trends
N - Evaluating Carbon Pricing
N - Internal Carbon Pricing - Business and Other
N - SCC Social Cost of Carbon News
N - State Carbon Pricing
N - Taxing Carbon
T - Carbon Pricing Individuals
T - Carbon Pricing Networks
V - Carbon Pricing
E - Carbon Pricing Extracts
Economics TOC
S - Adaptation Economics
S - Cost-Benefit Analysis
S - Economic Futures
S - Economic Modeling
S - Green New Deal
S - Limits to Growth
S - Mitigation Economics
S - Systemic Risk
N - Alternative Economic Models
N - Economic Impacts
N - Economics Top Level
N - Green Growth Climate Finance
N - Green New Deal
N - Limits to Growth
N - Mitigation Economics
T - Behavioral Economics - Cognitive
T - Climate Finance
T - Economics Websites, Blogs, FB Home Pages
T - Green Growth
T - Green New Deal
T - Limits to Growth
T - Organized Economics Subtopics
V - Economics Videos
V - Green New Deal
V - SCC Social Cost of Carbon
C - Economics
E - Alternative Economics
E - Carbon Pricing Extracts
E - Cost Benefit Analysis
E - Economic Modeling
E - Economic thinking as part of climate problem
E - IAM Uncertainties and Forecasts
E - Impact Specific Economics
E - Integrated Assessment Modeling
E - MACC Curves
E - Mitigation Economics
E - Societal Economics
E - Adaptation Economics
G - Adaptation Economics
Market Mechanisms TOC
I:AdaptationMarkets
I:AlternativestoCarbonPricing
I:BoundingCarbonMarketOutcomes
I:BoundingCarbonPrices
I:BritishColumbiaCarbonTax
I:BusinessandCarbonPricing
I:CapandTrade
I:CarbonMarkets
I:CarbonMarketsandAgriculture
I:CarbonOffsetCritiques
I:CarbonOffsets (Deep Dive)
I:CarbonOffsetsasGreenwishing
I:CarbonOffsetsinCarbonTaxation
I:CarbonPriceForecasting
I:CarbonPricingApproaches/Strategies
I:CarbonPricingChallenges
I:CarbonPricingHistoryandTrends
I:CarbonPricingImpacts
I:CarbonPricingPoliticalFeasibility
I:CarbonPricingviaCarbonMarkets
I:CarbonTaxation
I:CarbonTaxImpacts
I:ComplianceOffsetMarkets
I:EmissionsTrading
I:EvaluatingCarbonMarkets
I:EvaluatingCarbonOffsets
I:EvaluatingCarbonPricing
I:EvaluatingCarbonTaxes
I:EvaluatingMarketMechanisms
I:FossilFuelSubsidies
I:GreenBonds
I:ImplicitCarbonPricing
I:InternalCarbonPricing
I:LinkingCarbonMarkets
I:MarketMechanismsandTechnologyInnovation
I:MarketMechanismsinAviation
I:MarketSolutions
I:OffsetMarkets
I:PersonalCarbonTrading
I:RECsRenewableEnergyCertificates
I:RevenueNeutralCarbonTax
I:SCCasCarbonPrice
I:TargetBasedCarbonPricing
I:VoluntaryOffsetMarkets
S - Carbon Offset Sources (General)
S - Carbon Markets
S - Carbon Pricing History and Trends
S - Carbon Pricing Sources
S - CDM Clean Development Mechanism
S - Compliance Offset Markets
S - Evaluating Market Mechanisms
S - Market Mechanisms
S - Markets and Innovation
S - Offsets as Aviation Mitigation Strategy
S - Taxing Carbon
S - Voluntary Carbon Offset Markets
N - Carbon Offsets News and Opinion
N - Carbon Markets
N - Carbon Pricing News - Topical
N - Carbon Pricing Trends
N - Market Mechanisms
N - Taxing Carbon
T - Carbon Neutrality
T - Carbon Pricing Networks
T - Carbon Taxes
T - Market Mechanisms
T - Offset Protocols
V - Carbon Pricing
V - Market mechanisms
E - Carbon Pricing Extracts
E - Market Mechanisms
Scenario Planning TOC
S - Abrupt Climate Change
S - Adaptation Planning Scenarios
S - Board of Directors/Trustee Liability
S - Bounding Global SLR
S - Carbon Price Forecasts
S - CEQA-NEPA-SEPA Litigation
S - Climate Change Fingerprint to Date
S - Climate Change Scenario Planning
S - Climate Change Scenarios
S - Climate Change Tipping Points
S - Climate Risk Disclosure Regime
S - Climate Scenario Methodologies
S - Climate Scenario Variables
S - Climate Uncertainties Unknowns
S - Conflict and Climate Change
S - Current State of Climate Risk Reporting
S - Decision-Making Futures
S - Deep Uncertainty
S - Economic Futures
S - Economics Forecasting
S - Electric Sector Climate Risk Assessment
S - Electric Sector Futures
S - Emerging Risks
S - Environmental and Climate Storytelling
S - EPA Regulation of Carbon Under the CAA
S - Fire Impacts
S - Foresight How To
S - Future Forecasts and Case Studies
S - Futures and Foresight Top Level
S - Gaming for Climate Change
S - Geography-Specific Scenarios
S - Impacts - Electric Sector
S - Impacts by Type
S - Impacts By Degree
S - Infrastructure Impacts
S - Investing Under Uncertainty
S - Limits to Growth
S - Litigation Cases
S - Low Carbon Scenarios
S - Precipitation Impacts
S - Prediction Markets
S - Scenario Planning
S - Sector-Specific Futures
S - Sectoral Climate Impacts
S - Sectoral Risk Disclosure
S - SLR Sea Level Rise Sources - Topical
S - Social Activism Movements and Climate Change
S - SocioEconomic Pathways
S - Stranded Assets
S - TCFD Scenario Planning
S - Technology Futures
S - Temperature Impacts
S - Using Foresight
N - A Policy Tipping Point?
N - Activism
N - Carbon Price Forecasting
N - Carbon Pricing Advocacy
N - Changing Business Models
N - Climate and Security
N - Climate Risk Scenario News - Topical
N - Energy Futures
N - Forecasting the Future
N - Futures and Foresight Top Level
N - GND Strategy
N - Green Growth Climate Finance
N - Green Jobs
N - Green New Deal
N - Public Opinion Tipping Points?
N - Scenario Planning
N - SLR Bounding
N - Tipping Point Coal
T - Climate Activism
T - Climate and Security
T - Climate Scenario Tools
T - Scenario Planning Networks
T - Systems Thinking
V - Activism and Movements
V - Carbon Pricing
V - Climate Futures
V - Future and Foresight Videos
E - Black Swan Risks
E - Brand Risks
E - Business Risk Assessment
E - Business Risk Scenarios
E - Business Risk Timing
E - Business Scenario Planning
E - Business Value at Risk
E - Carbon Asset Risks
E - Carbon Pricing Extracts
E - Climate Activism
E - Climate Impacts/Risks by Sector
E - Climate Opportunities
E - Climate Risk Scenario Extracts
E - Expert Elicitation
E - Fiduciary Responsibility
E - Future Scenarios
E - Futures and Foresight Top Level
E - Liability Risks
E - Long-Term Thinking
E - Policy/Regulatory Risks
E - Predicting the Future
E - Private Sector in Green Growth
E - Project/Infrastructure Risks
E - Resources Risks
E - Risk Disclosure Materiality
E - Risk Disclosure Scenarios
E - Risk Disclosure Timeline
E - Scenario Disruptors
E - Scenario Planning
E - Scenario Triggers
E - Security Impacts
E - Supply Chain Risks
E - Systems Thinking
E - TCFD-Specific Guidance/Analysis
E - Temperature Scenarios and Forecasts
Strategists and Scenario Planners
S - Adaptation Planning Scenarios
S - Carbon Price Forecasts
S - Climate Change Scenario Planning
S - Climate Change Scenarios
S - Climate Scenario Methodologies
S - Climate Scenario Variables
S - Conflict and Climate Change
S - Deep Uncertainty
S - Economic Futures
S - Foresight How To
S - Futures and Foresight Top Level
S - Gaming for Climate Change
S - Geography-Specific Scenarios
S - Limits to Growth
S - Low Carbon Scenarios
S - Prediction Markets
S - Sector-Specific Futures
S - Social Activism Movements and Climate Change
S - SocioEconomic Pathways
S - TCFD Scenario Planning
S - Using Foresight
N - A Policy Tipping Point?
N - Activism
N - Carbon Price Forecasting
N - Carbon Pricing Advocacy
N - Changing Business Models
N - Climate and Security
N - Climate Risk Scenario News - Topical
N - Energy Futures
N - Forecasting the Future
N - Futures and Foresight Top Level
N - GND Strategy
N - Green Growth Climate Finance
N - Green Jobs
N - Green New Deal
N - Public Opinion Tipping Points?
N - Scenario Planning
N - Tipping Point Coal
T - Climate Activism
T - Climate and Security
T - Scenario Planning Networks
T - Systems Thinking
V - Activism and Movements
V - Carbon Pricing
V - Future and Foresight Videos
E - Business Risk Scenarios
E - Business Scenario Planning
E - Carbon Pricing Extracts
E - Climate Activism
E - Climate Risk Scenario Extracts
E - Expert Elicitation
E - Futures and Foresight Top Level
E - Predicting the Future
E - Private Sector in Green Growth
E - Scenario Planning
E - Scenario Triggers
E - Security Impacts
E - Systems Thinking
E - TCFD-Specific Guidance/Analysis
E - Economics Top Level
2015 Infographic - beef subsidies in Brazil
2015 Infographic - timber subsidies Indonesia
2015 Infographic palm oil subsidies in Indonesi
2015 Infographic soy subsidies in Brazil
Infographic - Disastrous Spending Federal disaster relief
Infographic - How Much Does Solar Power Cost?
Infographic - Natural Capital
Infographic - Putting the worlds money supply into perspective
Infographic - the costs of climate change
Infographic - The value of the Great Barrier Reef to Australia
Infographic - Why global carbon emissions fell in 2014
Infographic Disaster Risk Finance: Protecting Livelihoods and Developme
E - Alternative Economics
E - Carbon Pricing Extracts
E - Climate and Economic Growth
E - Climate Opportunities
E - Cost Benefit Analysis
E - Economic Forecasting
E - Economic Modeling
E - Economic Policymaking
E - Economic thinking as part of climate problem
E - Ecosystem Services
E - Extreme Event Costs
E - GDP Scenarios
E - Impact Specific Economics
E - Implications of Discounting Future Damages
E - Integrated Assessment Modeling
E - Low Carbon Transition Costs
E - MACC Curves
E - Mitigation Economics
E - Mitigation Potentials by Cost
E - SCC Social Cost of Carbon
E - Societal Economics
E - Technology Economics
Interactive Graphic - Farming and the Green economy
2001 Economics costs of climate change up to 6^o C
2006 Forecasting the cost of future climate change mitigation
2006 The optimal amount of climate change mitigation in a given time period
2007 Estimated geographical impacts of 2.5 and 6 degrees C of warming
2008 Nuclear is the cheapest option if we price carbon
2009 Conventional vs. expansive estimate of climate change impact on GDP
2009 How discount rates affect different adaptation measures
2010 Annualized U.S. loss trend - water impacts
2010 Discounted U.S. damages (direct water supply)
2010 Economics of climate change in Chicago by 2070-2099
2010 National employment impacts
2010 Second order uncertainty is the uncertainty in the uncertainty
2010 Welfare probabilities shown against $50 and $500 carbon taxes
2011 Delayed climate policy could cost $8 trillion by 2030
2011 Forecasts in figure form - shaded area showing range of legislative proposals
2011 Potential per capita GDP costs of climate change to 2200
2011 The difficult of quantifying ecosystem costs
2011 There is big uncertainty about forecasted prices even given probram design
2013 Economic losses related to natural catastrophes
2013 Forecasting global baseline CO2 emissions
2013 Only a relatively small (and declining) part of the U.S. economy is really vulnerable to climate change.
2013 SCC models are commonly characterized by a continued growth trajectory, regardless of climate change
2013 There is no such thing as one number for the SCC
2013 With limited participation number goes to 4 degrees.
2014 Combined direct impact costs vs. integrated costs
2014 Costs of CO2 mitigation
2014 Direct costs and benefits by state, historical hurricane, market mortality
2014 Direct costs and benefits by state, projected hurricane, VSL mortality cost
2014 If the forecasted targets are achieved through P&Ms or targets, what's the cost? (CO2eq)
2014 Per capita county direct costs from change in energy costs
2014 Per capita county-level labor productivity impacts
2014 Per capita direct costs by county distribution
2014 Per capita increase in average annual storm damages due to SLR
2014 Per capita increase in state coastal damages due to SLR alone
2014 Per capita increase in state coastal damages due to SLR and potential hurricane activity change
2014 Per capita state cost increases from crime
2014 State level per capita direct costs
2014 State level per capita direct costs
2015/8 Limiting climate change can save $1.8 Trillion in fuel spend, and $100 Trillion in damages
2015 9. But implications differ by sector, as shown here.
2015 14. But costs are higher, unless you factor in climate and health savings
2015 Action scenario
2015 And will continue to fall
2015 And wind and solar costs are evolving quickly
2015 Annual electricity production and fossil fuel role to 2040
2015 Changes in energy spend by scenario
2015 Comparing Citi and IEA solar and wind deployment
2015 Economic impact of climate change on the world
2015 Inaction scenario
2015 Net and cumulative incremental costs of the action scenario
2015 REDD Finance vs. agricultural and biofuels subsidies in Brazil and Indonesia
2015 The non-climate benefits and costs of CO2
2015 The relative economics of offsets
2015 Value of potentially unburnable carbon
2016 Estimated cost of natural disasters of 2012 in U.S.
2016 Sector emissions vs. value added
2016 Sectors are affected differently by climate change
2017 17 estimates of the GDP impact of climate change plotted as a least squares - 5 to 95% confidence interval
2017 Billion-Dollar Weather
2017 Recent cost trends for selected technologies
2017 Technology will create opportunities for energy savings and resource productivity
2020 CBO's projections over different time periods
2020 Charting the CBO's methodology
2020 Comparing CBO estimates to two other studies
2020 Estimated cost of an HVDC system
2020 Estimated Costs and Benefits of Infrastructure 3.0
2020 Estimates of economic damage to 2100
2020 HVDC Capital and Maintenance costs by phase
2020 North America’s average cost of energy between 2009 and 2017
2020 Potential new jobs based on payback and interest rate
2020 The overall impact of climate change to 2050
2020 U.S. energy productivity 1950-2019
2021 Billion dollar disasters 1980 - 2020
2030 (2017) Climate change could raise extreme poverty significantly
2100 (2014) Change in per capita direct energy expenditure by state for RCP 8.5 scenario
2100 (2014) Per capita state-level direct costs from increasing mortality under RCP 8.5 scenario
A lot more maritime reductions available by 2030
Alternative fittings of the line to the data
And huge questions about be raised about the entire discounting approach
Attractive adaptation options can mitigate risk increases
Best estimate economics across control technologies and one technology combination, 100% in region
But with inefficiency and discounting, a very different number - 3.8 degrees.
Case study of 37 forecasted energy impacts
CCS costs vs other technologies
Change in hydropower output 2020s and 2050s (no adaptation)
Change in maximum catch potential 2050s
Change in thermoelectric power output 2020s and 2050s (no adaptaiton)
Confidence in climate change health impacts
Costs of weather and climate natural disasters
Country-level income projections with and without climate change
Current Impacts - Human health
Declining EV battery costs
Decreasing milk production
Decreasing wine grape quality
E - Adaptation Economics
Economic analysis makes clear that THE economic alternative is to reduce coal use.
Economic benefits of significantly reducing emissions
Economic effects reported in American Climate Prospectus Study
Estimated cost of adapting to sea level rise, 2100
Estimates of welfare loss due to dlimate change in 16 studies
Expected hurricane losses
Expected losses across scenarios
Expected losses across the scenarios
Expected losses by asset type
Expected losses under scenarios
Forecast effect of temperature changes on regional economies
G - Adaptation Economics
Global economic impacts of CC on Port revenues
Global water change impact on hydropower and thermoelectric power to 2100
Globally costs depend significantly on how widespread participation is.
Graphic - How big a change are we talking about?
How much can you save switching to solar?
Impacts of climate change on risk capital requirements
Internalizing Externalities
Mapping global GHG productivity along value chains
Most significantly affected states in population, income
Multiple models have to be linked to estimate economic impacts
One estimate suggests quantified economic costs doubles by 2040
Our normal approach to time preference doesn't work
Overall CC costs in 2030 compared to baseline
Overall CC costs in 2050 compared to baseline
Overcall CC costs in 2100 compared to baseline
Power capacity and substation capacities vary with temperature
Power demands in India significantly affected by CC
Powerplants will face reductions in usable capacity
PV could have a significant impact on economics of utilties
Renewable energy electricity costs are falling
Sectoral interpolated (1-99% CI) risks
Significant maritime reductions are available today
So many of the emissions reductions in shipping are profitable, but they won't happen
Solar Parity Map
Subsidies of more than $1 trillion/year support low resource prices
Summary of potential costs - increasing 4x to 2080
Survey of levelized cost of energy studies
The cost-benefit approach to adaptation
The impact of potential increased hurricane activity
The impacts we're dealing with aren't manageable and at the margin
The middle class
The problem of timing, with much of the benefit coming after 2050.
200X The relative economics of solar energy
The role of cost-benefit in evaluating adaptation measures
The three economies
There are the economic externalities
Value of wetland services
What's the right discount rate?
A wide range of climate sensitivity estimates
All the critical components of a 3.0 infrastructure are experiencing plunging exponential cost curves, creating a virtuous cycle.
An economic approach to climate change is a dead end
Business action and climate capitalism has been proven a dead end
CBO doesn't know where non-captured impacts will be net positive or negative
CBO's estimates primarily driven by temperature and precipitation impacts
Economic models struggle to quantify potentially catastrophic outcomes
Economic Opportunities and Jobs
Estimates of the economic implications of climate tend tend to be modest
Highlights of $16 Trillion Investment
Is cost-benefit analysis even the right tool?
It is hard to see warming being reduced to less than 3oC without geoengineering
Some economic analysis - e.g. hurricanes in NYC, suggests very high costs of CC
Some economists argue that addressing GHG emissions will be beneficial on net
The bottom line is that the probability of catastrophic outcomes is increasing
The challenge of CC cost-benefit analysis
The projection is subject to a great deal of uncertainty
The Stern Review framed climate change as a question of risk management
Thinking of climate as a probability distribution
Three problems with an SCC value
U.S. and global economy may be only 16% efficient
Valuing climate risks does not generate a good measure of risks
What if the economic question is phrased differently?
I:CarbonPricing (Deep Dive)
Headings - Extracted Materials
E - Carbon Pricing Extracts
Extracted Graphics | Extracted Ideas
Infographic - Carbon Pricing in Canada
E - Business Carbon Pricing Advocacy
E - Cap and Dividend
E - Cap and Trade Performance
E - Carbon Markets Performance
E - Carbon Price Design
E - Carbon pricing politics
E - Carbon Pricing Coverage
E - Carbon Pricing History and Trends
E - Carbon Pricing Impacts
E - Carbon Pricing in Practice
E - Carbon Pricing Required for Emissions Targets
E - Carbon Pricing Revenues and Use
E - Carbon Pricing Scenarios and Forecasts
E - Carbon Taxation
E - Case for Carbon Pricing
E - Company-Specific Carbon Pricing
E - Efficient Optimal Carbon Pricing
E - Evaluating Carbon Pricing
E - Implicit Carbon Price of Policies and Measures
E - Internal Business Carbon Pricing
E - Negotiating a Global Carbon Price
E - Revenue Neutral Carbon Tax
E - SCC as Carbon Price
E - Sectoral Carbon Pricing and Pathways
E - Shadow Pricing
2012 The study concluded that policy and technology change in risk, but impacts almost irrelevant
2015 Other ways to get to same objective, e.g. $30/ton carbon tax
2015 Other ways to get to same objective, e.g. $30/ton carbon tax
2015 The 2oC Framework
2015 The 2oC portfolio approach
2015 Translating a 2oC scenario into a 2oC benchmark - 12
2016 Carbon price impact stress-testing approach
2016 Comparison of relevant signposts within physical climate scenarios
2016 Horizontal vs. vertical perspective on carbon pricing
2016 Horizontal vs. vertical perspective on carbon pricing
2016 Impact of policy distortions on apparent abatement cost
2016 Impact of policy distortions on apparent abatement cost
2016 Impact of WAIS collapse by 2200 modest in terms of suggested SCC
2016 Impact of WAIS collapse by 2200 modest in terms of suggested SCC
2016 Linking real assets to financial portfolios (9)
2016 Low carbon impact smart beta portfolio
2016 Mapping GHG productivity along value chains
2016 Mapping GHG productivity along value chains
2016 Objectives of the report
2016 Oil production costs vary widely
2016 Oil production costs vary widely
2016 Overview of carbon pricing by the numbers
2016 Overview of carbon pricing by the numbers
2016 Position of companies on introducing carbon pricing
2016 Position of companies on introducing carbon pricing
2016 Potential price impact of global carbon price after revenue recycling
2016 Prices in existing carbon pricing initiatives
2016 Relative sector impact on PBT by 2020
2016 Risks are long-term, investment focus short-term
2016 Testing 2D alignment for real assets
2016 Testing the alignment of real assets with a 2D target (4)
2016 There is no demand for long-term analysis (19)
2016 Transition scenarios - IEA outlook to 2040
2016 Voluntary vs. mandatory ways to respond to scenario challenges
2017 10 year and 35 year results
2017 35 year sensitivity
2017 Carbon price corridor for the power sector
2017 Carbon pricing could cover costs of universal access to basic services
2017 Carbon revenue recycling can benefit poor
2017 Carbon revenues could significantly expand social assistance
2017 Equity holds of financial actors, top 15 funds, and top 15 banks
2017 First and second round bank equity losses
2017 Heat maps - sensitivity of asset classes to climate risk factors
2017 OPTrust TRIP Expsoures
2017 Portfolio impacts at 10 years
2017 Portfolio impacts at 10 years
2017 Portfolio impacts at 10 years
2017 Reclassified NACE sectors to climate-policy-relevant sectors
2017 Risk factors illustrated relatively by scenario
2017 Sensitivity to TRIP risk factors by OPTrust greatest over short term
2018 Recent trends in carbon pricing
2018 The carbon pricing gap for OECD and G20 Countries
2021 Calculated components of the price of carbon facing Norwegian motorists as of 2019
2021 IPR carbon price policy forecast
2021 Voluntary carbon credit prices and demand 2019 by project type
2021 Voluntary carbon credit prices and demand 2019 by vintage
Australian Carbon Prices and Food Prices
Calculated "marginal" benefit cost ratio for 2011
Carbon Pricing by Country
Carbon Pricing Coverage by Country
Cheap energy is important for less poverty and better health
Coal keeps electricity prices down
Forward looking benefit cost ratios
GDP will continue to rise rapidly
Impact of Carbon Pricing
One can project the "CO2 Yield for Crops in the Future
Revised 2013 Social Cost of CO2, 2010-2050 ($2007)
Subtracting out benefits of energy from non-fossil fuel sources
The benefit cost ratio for CO2 is huge
The social cost of carbon emissions
As governments take real action, carbon prices could rise
Average voluntary market prices should rise to $20-50/tCO2e by 2030
Talk of carbon pricing evokes the bitter memory of shock therapy in eastern Europe and the developing world. BlackRock’s backstop idea is the logic of the 2008 bank bailouts expanded to the global level – socialise the risks, privatise the profits.
Taylor: 90% of people advocate a modest tax with a strict escalator
Taylor: If liberals are right that mitigation is cheap, then emissions reductions from a carbon tax should be huge
Taylor: Ironically, conservatives have the best answer to climate change - the power of markets and the invisible hand
Taylor: There is NOTHING that will get the job done besides a real price on carbon - regulation can't get there
The US and the EU seem less preoccupied with grand schemes of carbon pricing and blended finance, than with pushing a case-by-case approach
Works out ~$300/ton in 2050
Works out to ~$80/ton in 2030
Carbon Pricing for Paris Agreement
Carbon Pricing in Brief
Carbon Pricing Intro
Carbon Pricing Rules of Thumb
Implicit Carbon Pricing
Scoping Out the Topic of Carbon Pricing
Summing Up the Options for Carbon Pricing
Carbon Pricing TOC
I:BusinessCarbonPricingAdvocacy
I:CapandTrade
I:CarbonOffsetPrices
I:CarbonOffsetsandCarbonPricing
I:CarbonPriceCorridor
I:CarbonPriceForecasting
I:CarbonPricingandEmissionsReductions
I:CarbonPricingandTechnologyInnovation
I:CarbonPricingHistoryandTrends
I:CarbonPricingImpacts
I:CarbonPricinginScenarioPlanning
I:CarbonPricingPoliticalFeasibility
I:CarbonPricingviaCarbonMarkets
I:CarbonPricingwithComplementaryPolicies
I:CarbonTaxation
I:ClimateExactions
I:ConsumptionBasedCarbonPricing
I:CurrentDamagesasCarbonPrice
I:EvaluatingBCsCarbonTax
I:EvaluatingCarbonPricing
I:GlobalCarbonPricing
I:ImplicitCarbonPricing
I:InternalCarbonPricing
I:PolicyasCarbonPricing
I:RCCRiskCostofCarbonasCarbonPrice
I:SCCasCarbonPrice
I:SVMASocialValueofMitigationAction
I:TargetBasedCarbonPricing
I:UseofCarbonRevenues
S - Carbon Markets
S - Carbon Price Forecasts
S - Carbon Pricing Futures
S - Carbon Pricing History and Trends
S - Carbon Pricing in the Electricity Sector
S - Carbon Pricing Policy as Business Risk
S - Carbon Pricing Sources
S - Carbon Pricing System Design
S - Evaluating Carbon Pricing
S - Impacts of Pricing Carbon
S - Internal Corporate Carbon Pricing
S - National and Global Carbon Pricing
S - SCC Social Cost of Carbon
S - State and Local Carbon Pricing
S - Taxing Carbon
S - Why and How of Pricing Carbon
N - Carbon Price Forecasting
N - Carbon Pricing Advocacy
N - Carbon Pricing Impacts
N - Carbon Pricing News - Topical
N - Carbon Pricing Trends
N - Evaluating Carbon Pricing
N - Internal Carbon Pricing - Business and Other
N - SCC Social Cost of Carbon News
N - State Carbon Pricing
N - Taxing Carbon
T - Carbon Pricing Individuals
T - Carbon Pricing Networks
V - Carbon Pricing
E - Carbon Pricing Extracts
Economics TOC
S - Adaptation Economics
S - Cost-Benefit Analysis
S - Economic Futures
S - Economic Modeling
S - Green New Deal
S - Limits to Growth
S - Mitigation Economics
S - Systemic Risk
N - Alternative Economic Models
N - Economic Impacts
N - Economics Top Level
N - Green Growth Climate Finance
N - Green New Deal
N - Limits to Growth
N - Mitigation Economics
T - Behavioral Economics - Cognitive
T - Climate Finance
T - Economics Websites, Blogs, FB Home Pages
T - Green Growth
T - Green New Deal
T - Limits to Growth
T - Organized Economics Subtopics
V - Economics Videos
V - Green New Deal
V - SCC Social Cost of Carbon
C - Economics
E - Alternative Economics
E - Carbon Pricing Extracts
E - Cost Benefit Analysis
E - Economic Modeling
E - Economic thinking as part of climate problem
E - IAM Uncertainties and Forecasts
E - Impact Specific Economics
E - Integrated Assessment Modeling
E - MACC Curves
E - Mitigation Economics
E - Societal Economics
E - Adaptation Economics
G - Adaptation Economics
Market Mechanisms TOC
I:AdaptationMarkets
I:AlternativestoCarbonPricing
I:BoundingCarbonMarketOutcomes
I:BoundingCarbonPrices
I:BritishColumbiaCarbonTax
I:BusinessandCarbonPricing
I:CapandTrade
I:CarbonMarkets
I:CarbonMarketsandAgriculture
I:CarbonOffsetCritiques
I:CarbonOffsets (Deep Dive)
I:CarbonOffsetsasGreenwishing
I:CarbonOffsetsinCarbonTaxation
I:CarbonPriceForecasting
I:CarbonPricingApproaches/Strategies
I:CarbonPricingChallenges
I:CarbonPricingHistoryandTrends
I:CarbonPricingImpacts
I:CarbonPricingPoliticalFeasibility
I:CarbonPricingviaCarbonMarkets
I:CarbonTaxation
I:CarbonTaxImpacts
I:ComplianceOffsetMarkets
I:EmissionsTrading
I:EvaluatingCarbonMarkets
I:EvaluatingCarbonOffsets
I:EvaluatingCarbonPricing
I:EvaluatingCarbonTaxes
I:EvaluatingMarketMechanisms
I:FossilFuelSubsidies
I:GreenBonds
I:ImplicitCarbonPricing
I:InternalCarbonPricing
I:LinkingCarbonMarkets
I:MarketMechanismsandTechnologyInnovation
I:MarketMechanismsinAviation
I:MarketSolutions
I:OffsetMarkets
I:PersonalCarbonTrading
I:RECsRenewableEnergyCertificates
I:RevenueNeutralCarbonTax
I:SCCasCarbonPrice
I:TargetBasedCarbonPricing
I:VoluntaryOffsetMarkets
S - Carbon Offset Sources (General)
S - Carbon Markets
S - Carbon Pricing History and Trends
S - Carbon Pricing Sources
S - CDM Clean Development Mechanism
S - Compliance Offset Markets
S - Evaluating Market Mechanisms
S - Market Mechanisms
S - Markets and Innovation
S - Offsets as Aviation Mitigation Strategy
S - Taxing Carbon
S - Voluntary Carbon Offset Markets
N - Carbon Offsets News and Opinion
N - Carbon Markets
N - Carbon Pricing News - Topical
N - Carbon Pricing Trends
N - Market Mechanisms
N - Taxing Carbon
T - Carbon Neutrality
T - Carbon Pricing Networks
T - Carbon Taxes
T - Market Mechanisms
T - Offset Protocols
V - Carbon Pricing
V - Market mechanisms
E - Carbon Pricing Extracts
E - Market Mechanisms
Scenario Planning TOC
S - Abrupt Climate Change
S - Adaptation Planning Scenarios
S - Board of Directors/Trustee Liability
S - Bounding Global SLR
S - Carbon Price Forecasts
S - CEQA-NEPA-SEPA Litigation
S - Climate Change Fingerprint to Date
S - Climate Change Scenario Planning
S - Climate Change Scenarios
S - Climate Change Tipping Points
S - Climate Risk Disclosure Regime
S - Climate Scenario Methodologies
S - Climate Scenario Variables
S - Climate Uncertainties Unknowns
S - Conflict and Climate Change
S - Current State of Climate Risk Reporting
S - Decision-Making Futures
S - Deep Uncertainty
S - Economic Futures
S - Economics Forecasting
S - Electric Sector Climate Risk Assessment
S - Electric Sector Futures
S - Emerging Risks
S - Environmental and Climate Storytelling
S - EPA Regulation of Carbon Under the CAA
S - Fire Impacts
S - Foresight How To
S - Future Forecasts and Case Studies
S - Futures and Foresight Top Level
S - Gaming for Climate Change
S - Geography-Specific Scenarios
S - Impacts - Electric Sector
S - Impacts by Type
S - Impacts By Degree
S - Infrastructure Impacts
S - Investing Under Uncertainty
S - Limits to Growth
S - Litigation Cases
S - Low Carbon Scenarios
S - Precipitation Impacts
S - Prediction Markets
S - Scenario Planning
S - Sector-Specific Futures
S - Sectoral Climate Impacts
S - Sectoral Risk Disclosure
S - SLR Sea Level Rise Sources - Topical
S - Social Activism Movements and Climate Change
S - SocioEconomic Pathways
S - Stranded Assets
S - TCFD Scenario Planning
S - Technology Futures
S - Temperature Impacts
S - Using Foresight
N - A Policy Tipping Point?
N - Activism
N - Carbon Price Forecasting
N - Carbon Pricing Advocacy
N - Changing Business Models
N - Climate and Security
N - Climate Risk Scenario News - Topical
N - Energy Futures
N - Forecasting the Future
N - Futures and Foresight Top Level
N - GND Strategy
N - Green Growth Climate Finance
N - Green Jobs
N - Green New Deal
N - Public Opinion Tipping Points?
N - Scenario Planning
N - SLR Bounding
N - Tipping Point Coal
T - Climate Activism
T - Climate and Security
T - Climate Scenario Tools
T - Scenario Planning Networks
T - Systems Thinking
V - Activism and Movements
V - Carbon Pricing
V - Climate Futures
V - Future and Foresight Videos
E - Black Swan Risks
E - Brand Risks
E - Business Risk Assessment
E - Business Risk Scenarios
E - Business Risk Timing
E - Business Scenario Planning
E - Business Value at Risk
E - Carbon Asset Risks
E - Carbon Pricing Extracts
E - Climate Activism
E - Climate Impacts/Risks by Sector
E - Climate Opportunities
E - Climate Risk Scenario Extracts
E - Expert Elicitation
E - Fiduciary Responsibility
E - Future Scenarios
E - Futures and Foresight Top Level
E - Liability Risks
E - Long-Term Thinking
E - Policy/Regulatory Risks
E - Predicting the Future
E - Private Sector in Green Growth
E - Project/Infrastructure Risks
E - Resources Risks
E - Risk Disclosure Materiality
E - Risk Disclosure Scenarios
E - Risk Disclosure Timeline
E - Scenario Disruptors
E - Scenario Planning
E - Scenario Triggers
E - Security Impacts
E - Supply Chain Risks
E - Systems Thinking
E - TCFD-Specific Guidance/Analysis
E - Temperature Scenarios and Forecasts
Strategists and Scenario Planners
S - Adaptation Planning Scenarios
S - Carbon Price Forecasts
S - Climate Change Scenario Planning
S - Climate Change Scenarios
S - Climate Scenario Methodologies
S - Climate Scenario Variables
S - Conflict and Climate Change
S - Deep Uncertainty
S - Economic Futures
S - Foresight How To
S - Futures and Foresight Top Level
S - Gaming for Climate Change
S - Geography-Specific Scenarios
S - Limits to Growth
S - Low Carbon Scenarios
S - Prediction Markets
S - Sector-Specific Futures
S - Social Activism Movements and Climate Change
S - SocioEconomic Pathways
S - TCFD Scenario Planning
S - Using Foresight
N - A Policy Tipping Point?
N - Activism
N - Carbon Price Forecasting
N - Carbon Pricing Advocacy
N - Changing Business Models
N - Climate and Security
N - Climate Risk Scenario News - Topical
N - Energy Futures
N - Forecasting the Future
N - Futures and Foresight Top Level
N - GND Strategy
N - Green Growth Climate Finance
N - Green Jobs
N - Green New Deal
N - Public Opinion Tipping Points?
N - Scenario Planning
N - Tipping Point Coal
T - Climate Activism
T - Climate and Security
T - Scenario Planning Networks
T - Systems Thinking
V - Activism and Movements
V - Carbon Pricing
V - Future and Foresight Videos
E - Business Risk Scenarios
E - Business Scenario Planning
E - Carbon Pricing Extracts
E - Climate Activism
E - Climate Risk Scenario Extracts
E - Expert Elicitation
E - Futures and Foresight Top Level
E - Predicting the Future
E - Private Sector in Green Growth
E - Scenario Planning
E - Scenario Triggers
E - Security Impacts
E - Systems Thinking
E - TCFD-Specific Guidance/Analysis
E - Economics Top Level
2015 Infographic - beef subsidies in Brazil
2015 Infographic - timber subsidies Indonesia
2015 Infographic palm oil subsidies in Indonesi
2015 Infographic soy subsidies in Brazil
Infographic - Disastrous Spending Federal disaster relief
Infographic - How Much Does Solar Power Cost?
Infographic - Natural Capital
Infographic - Putting the worlds money supply into perspective
Infographic - the costs of climate change
Infographic - The value of the Great Barrier Reef to Australia
Infographic - Why global carbon emissions fell in 2014
Infographic Disaster Risk Finance: Protecting Livelihoods and Developme
E - Alternative Economics
E - Carbon Pricing Extracts
E - Climate and Economic Growth
E - Climate Opportunities
E - Cost Benefit Analysis
E - Economic Forecasting
E - Economic Modeling
E - Economic Policymaking
E - Economic thinking as part of climate problem
E - Ecosystem Services
E - Extreme Event Costs
E - GDP Scenarios
E - Impact Specific Economics
E - Implications of Discounting Future Damages
E - Integrated Assessment Modeling
E - Low Carbon Transition Costs
E - MACC Curves
E - Mitigation Economics
E - Mitigation Potentials by Cost
E - SCC Social Cost of Carbon
E - Societal Economics
E - Technology Economics
Interactive Graphic - Farming and the Green economy
2001 Economics costs of climate change up to 6^o C
2006 Forecasting the cost of future climate change mitigation
2006 The optimal amount of climate change mitigation in a given time period
2007 Estimated geographical impacts of 2.5 and 6 degrees C of warming
2008 Nuclear is the cheapest option if we price carbon
2009 Conventional vs. expansive estimate of climate change impact on GDP
2009 How discount rates affect different adaptation measures
2010 Annualized U.S. loss trend - water impacts
2010 Discounted U.S. damages (direct water supply)
2010 Economics of climate change in Chicago by 2070-2099
2010 National employment impacts
2010 Second order uncertainty is the uncertainty in the uncertainty
2010 Welfare probabilities shown against $50 and $500 carbon taxes
2011 Delayed climate policy could cost $8 trillion by 2030
2011 Forecasts in figure form - shaded area showing range of legislative proposals
2011 Potential per capita GDP costs of climate change to 2200
2011 The difficult of quantifying ecosystem costs
2011 There is big uncertainty about forecasted prices even given probram design
2013 Economic losses related to natural catastrophes
2013 Forecasting global baseline CO2 emissions
2013 Only a relatively small (and declining) part of the U.S. economy is really vulnerable to climate change.
2013 SCC models are commonly characterized by a continued growth trajectory, regardless of climate change
2013 There is no such thing as one number for the SCC
2013 With limited participation number goes to 4 degrees.
2014 Combined direct impact costs vs. integrated costs
2014 Costs of CO2 mitigation
2014 Direct costs and benefits by state, historical hurricane, market mortality
2014 Direct costs and benefits by state, projected hurricane, VSL mortality cost
2014 If the forecasted targets are achieved through P&Ms or targets, what's the cost? (CO2eq)
2014 Per capita county direct costs from change in energy costs
2014 Per capita county-level labor productivity impacts
2014 Per capita direct costs by county distribution
2014 Per capita increase in average annual storm damages due to SLR
2014 Per capita increase in state coastal damages due to SLR alone
2014 Per capita increase in state coastal damages due to SLR and potential hurricane activity change
2014 Per capita state cost increases from crime
2014 State level per capita direct costs
2014 State level per capita direct costs
2015/8 Limiting climate change can save $1.8 Trillion in fuel spend, and $100 Trillion in damages
2015 9. But implications differ by sector, as shown here.
2015 14. But costs are higher, unless you factor in climate and health savings
2015 Action scenario
2015 And will continue to fall
2015 And wind and solar costs are evolving quickly
2015 Annual electricity production and fossil fuel role to 2040
2015 Changes in energy spend by scenario
2015 Comparing Citi and IEA solar and wind deployment
2015 Economic impact of climate change on the world
2015 Inaction scenario
2015 Net and cumulative incremental costs of the action scenario
2015 REDD Finance vs. agricultural and biofuels subsidies in Brazil and Indonesia
2015 The non-climate benefits and costs of CO2
2015 The relative economics of offsets
2015 Value of potentially unburnable carbon
2016 Estimated cost of natural disasters of 2012 in U.S.
2016 Sector emissions vs. value added
2016 Sectors are affected differently by climate change
2017 17 estimates of the GDP impact of climate change plotted as a least squares - 5 to 95% confidence interval
2017 Billion-Dollar Weather
2017 Recent cost trends for selected technologies
2017 Technology will create opportunities for energy savings and resource productivity
2020 CBO's projections over different time periods
2020 Charting the CBO's methodology
2020 Comparing CBO estimates to two other studies
2020 Estimated cost of an HVDC system
2020 Estimated Costs and Benefits of Infrastructure 3.0
2020 Estimates of economic damage to 2100
2020 HVDC Capital and Maintenance costs by phase
2020 North America’s average cost of energy between 2009 and 2017
2020 Potential new jobs based on payback and interest rate
2020 The overall impact of climate change to 2050
2020 U.S. energy productivity 1950-2019
2021 Billion dollar disasters 1980 - 2020
2030 (2017) Climate change could raise extreme poverty significantly
2100 (2014) Change in per capita direct energy expenditure by state for RCP 8.5 scenario
2100 (2014) Per capita state-level direct costs from increasing mortality under RCP 8.5 scenario
A lot more maritime reductions available by 2030
Alternative fittings of the line to the data
And huge questions about be raised about the entire discounting approach
Attractive adaptation options can mitigate risk increases
Best estimate economics across control technologies and one technology combination, 100% in region
But with inefficiency and discounting, a very different number - 3.8 degrees.
Case study of 37 forecasted energy impacts
CCS costs vs other technologies
Change in hydropower output 2020s and 2050s (no adaptation)
Change in maximum catch potential 2050s
Change in thermoelectric power output 2020s and 2050s (no adaptaiton)
Confidence in climate change health impacts
Costs of weather and climate natural disasters
Country-level income projections with and without climate change
Current Impacts - Human health
Declining EV battery costs
Decreasing milk production
Decreasing wine grape quality
E - Adaptation Economics
Economic analysis makes clear that THE economic alternative is to reduce coal use.
Economic benefits of significantly reducing emissions
Economic effects reported in American Climate Prospectus Study
Estimated cost of adapting to sea level rise, 2100
Estimates of welfare loss due to dlimate change in 16 studies
Expected hurricane losses
Expected losses across scenarios
Expected losses across the scenarios
Expected losses by asset type
Expected losses under scenarios
Forecast effect of temperature changes on regional economies
G - Adaptation Economics
Global economic impacts of CC on Port revenues
Global water change impact on hydropower and thermoelectric power to 2100
Globally costs depend significantly on how widespread participation is.
Graphic - How big a change are we talking about?
How much can you save switching to solar?
Impacts of climate change on risk capital requirements
Internalizing Externalities
Mapping global GHG productivity along value chains
Most significantly affected states in population, income
Multiple models have to be linked to estimate economic impacts
One estimate suggests quantified economic costs doubles by 2040
Our normal approach to time preference doesn't work
Overall CC costs in 2030 compared to baseline
Overall CC costs in 2050 compared to baseline
Overcall CC costs in 2100 compared to baseline
Power capacity and substation capacities vary with temperature
Power demands in India significantly affected by CC
Powerplants will face reductions in usable capacity
PV could have a significant impact on economics of utilties
Renewable energy electricity costs are falling
Sectoral interpolated (1-99% CI) risks
Significant maritime reductions are available today
So many of the emissions reductions in shipping are profitable, but they won't happen
Solar Parity Map
Subsidies of more than $1 trillion/year support low resource prices
Summary of potential costs - increasing 4x to 2080
Survey of levelized cost of energy studies
The cost-benefit approach to adaptation
The impact of potential increased hurricane activity
The impacts we're dealing with aren't manageable and at the margin
The middle class
The problem of timing, with much of the benefit coming after 2050.
200X The relative economics of solar energy
The role of cost-benefit in evaluating adaptation measures
The three economies
There are the economic externalities
Value of wetland services
What's the right discount rate?
A wide range of climate sensitivity estimates
All the critical components of a 3.0 infrastructure are experiencing plunging exponential cost curves, creating a virtuous cycle.
An economic approach to climate change is a dead end
Business action and climate capitalism has been proven a dead end
CBO doesn't know where non-captured impacts will be net positive or negative
CBO's estimates primarily driven by temperature and precipitation impacts
Economic models struggle to quantify potentially catastrophic outcomes
Economic Opportunities and Jobs
Estimates of the economic implications of climate tend tend to be modest
Highlights of $16 Trillion Investment
Is cost-benefit analysis even the right tool?
It is hard to see warming being reduced to less than 3oC without geoengineering
Some economic analysis - e.g. hurricanes in NYC, suggests very high costs of CC
Some economists argue that addressing GHG emissions will be beneficial on net
The bottom line is that the probability of catastrophic outcomes is increasing
The challenge of CC cost-benefit analysis
The projection is subject to a great deal of uncertainty
The Stern Review framed climate change as a question of risk management
Thinking of climate as a probability distribution
Three problems with an SCC value
U.S. and global economy may be only 16% efficient
Valuing climate risks does not generate a good measure of risks
What if the economic question is phrased differently?
I:CarbonPricing (Deep Dive)