E - Systemic Climate Risk
E - Climate Impact on Returns
E - Food Security Impacts
E - Stranded Assets - Value at Risk from Policy
2015 Australian emissions trends vs. IPCC carbon budget
2015 Australian gross revenue trajectories based on global climate responses
2015 Systemic risk in 2015 and 2035
2015 Timeline of evaluated systemic risks
2016 Mapping out the links between financial and climate fragility
2017 A comprehensive approach to social foundations and ecological boundaries
2017 Assets at potential risk of climate stranding
2017 Estimated ratio of 2099 GDP to 2010 GDP with and without climate change
2017 Number of deadly temperature days by 2100
2018 2100 Primary Energy Mix under Alternative Scenarios
2018 Growing number of extreme events and losses
2018 The growing potential for environmental migration
2019 Alternative economic models - Equilibrium vs. non-equilibrium
2019 Changes in global levelized energy costs 2010-2018
2019 How the energy transition could impact GDP based on alternative models
2019 Overview of the climate stress test framework
2019 Representative high-level scenarios for climate stress tests
2019 Sensitivity analysis for energy sector risk
2020 Atmospheric CO2 and regional emissions over 12,000 years
2020 Cascading potential climate tipping points based on temperature outcomes
2020 Chain reactions in climate impacts
2020 Climate crisis as systemic risk: evidence of economic impacts
2020 Climate crisis as systemic risk: impacts on different economic sectors
2020 Climate related risks, opportunities, and financial impacts
2020 Demand and supply shocks from climate change
2020 Evolution of energy systems in absolute and relative terms
2020 How physical and transition risks could materialize
2020 Impact of climate change on GDP
2020 More than half of syndicated lending of US banks subject to climate risk
2020 Role of Federal Reserve in addressing climate change
2020 Role of Federal Reserve in climate risk
2020 Testing business resilience to physical and transition risks
2020 The 5 C's Contribute to Coordination to Combat Climate Change
2020 The phases of transforming socio-technical systems
2020 Transition vs. physical risk balance
2020 Warming projections under emissions scenarios
2020 Weak vs. Strong Sustainability
2021 Expert assessment of systemic cascading climate risks likely to lead to economic and trade disruption
2021 Expert assessment of systemic cascading climate risks likely to lead to energy insecurity
2021 Expert assessment of systemic cascading climate risks likely to lead to food insecurity
2021 Expert assessment of systemic cascading climate risks likely to lead to greater national and international insecurity
2021 Expert assessment of systemic cascading climate risks likely to lead to health crises
2021 Expert assessment of systemic cascading climate risks likely to lead to migration pressures
2021 Summary of major systemic risk dynamics
Climate change has all the characteristics of financial systemic risk
Climate change will impact cost of living in many ways
Key research priorities on financial stablity and climate change
Potential vulnerability to climate change
Sovereign ratings directly correlated to climate vulnerability
Sovereign ratings inversely correlated to prosperity
2011 Strain will be put on international agreements to manage water, food, trade, and borders
2020 A lot of needed policies will be regressive
2020 A new international banking agency may be called for
2020 Carbon pricing won't be enough - complex policy mixes will be needed
2020 Central banks can be advocates for socioeconomic change
2020 Central banks have a role to play
2020 Central banks may have to rescue the financial system from climate risks
2020 Central banks should contribute to policy debates under the 5 C's
2020 Climate change poses challenges for monetary policy
2020 Climate risk management requires a structural transformation of our economies
2020 Climate risks will remain largely uninsurable and unheadgeable in the absence of a systemic response
2020 Consideration of climate risks by financial institutions could act as a form of shadow pricing of carbon
2020 Financial and climate stability can be seen as interconnected public goods
2020 Government action to steer markets in the right direction could create a huge market opportunity
2020 Governments should finance the low-carbon transition with public debt
2020 Green swans have similarities and differences with respect to black swans
2020 Green swans represent a colossal and potentially irreversible risk of staggering complexity
2020 It is not clear how big a difference greening banks' collateral frameworks would make
2020 Reigniting growth via low-carbon investments more sustainability than other approaches to growth
2020 Responding to climate change faces an "epistemological obstacle"
2020 Risk assessment can quantitatively or qualitatively use Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions
2020 Scenario analysis is only a partial solution to the challenge
2020 Several ways are being used to assess indirect climate risk exposures
2020 Several ways are being used to to assess the adaptive capacity of firms in a sector
2020 The climate stress test used by Netherlands Bank
2020 The financial sector could be faced by a "climate Minsky moment"
2020 There are risks to public low-carbon investment strategies
2020 Thinking of central banks as main agents in a transition is risky
2020 Today's economic models can't predict the impacts of climate change
2020 Traditional risk assessment models prevent appreciation of future systemic risk
2020 We should think of future uncertainty via multiple plausible futures, not probabilities
A look at UK risks concluded indirect risks an order of magnitude greater than direct domestic impacts
A number of risks accompany ice loss
Commissioned CNA to do a 2015 scenarios exercise
Concluding Comments - biggest challenge is interactions of risks
Current examples of how existing climate change may have influenced security outcomes
Risk Assessment Part 3 - Systemic Risks
Some of the major impacts
Uncertainty over scarce resources could significantly increase instability
We have tended to look at climate risks too narrowly
Dangerous Climate Change TOC
E - Low Carbon Transition Knowledgebase
2018/2 Funding the Fight Against Climate Change
I:AcceleratingClimateChange
I:BlackSwansofClimateChange
I:CatastrophicClimateChange
I:ClimateTippingPoints - Synonym
I:InfluencingDecisionmaking
I:IPCCUnderestimationofRisk
I:PlanetaryBoundaries (Deep Dive)
I:ScientistsUnderstatingRisk
I:SocialMovements (Deep Dive)
I:SystemicClimateRisk (Deep Dive)
I:SystemsThinkingandClimateChange
I:SystemsThinkingandGames
I:SystemsThinkingandScenarioPlanning
I:SystemsThinkingandSustainability
I:UnacceptableClimateChange
I:WickedProblems (Deep Dive)
S - 100% Renewable Energy Transition
S - Abrupt Climate Change
S - Catastrophic Risk Decision-Making
S - Climate Change Fingerprint to Date
S - Climate Change Systemic Risk
S - Climate Change Tipping Points
S - Climate Emergency Sources
S - Climate Engineering Sources
S - Climate Uncertainties Unknowns
S - Communications How To for Climate Change
S - Dangerous Climate Impacts
S - Decision-making Under Uncertainty
S - Extreme Event Impacts
S - Fat and Long Tail Risks of Climate Change
S - Probabilistic Decision-Making
S - Social Activism Movements and Climate Change
S - Under-Estimating Climate Risk
S - Worst Case Climate Change
N - 100% Renewable Future
N - Accelerating/Worsening Climate Change
N - Changing Climate Probabilities
N - Climate Change as a Wicked Problem
N - Climate Change Tipping Points
N - Fat and Long Tail Risks From Climate Change
N - IPCC 1.5 Degrees Report
N - Systemic Climate Risk
T - Climate Emergency Networks
T - Earth Science Systems Thinking
T - Extreme Events Network
T - Social Change Networks
T - Systems Thinking Individuals
V - Abrupt Change/Climate Disruption
V - Systemic Climate Risk
E - Comparing/Evaluating Low Carbon Studies
E - 1 Degree 350 ppm Scenario
E - 2 Degree 450 PPM Pathway
E - 100% Renewable Transition
E - Abrupt Climate Change
E - Changing Probability Distributions
E - Climate Change Tipping Points
E - Climate Emergency Extracts
E - Drivers of Low Carbon Transition
E - Electrification of the Energy System
E - Extreme Event Impacts
E - Low Carbon Transition Barriers
E - Low Carbon Transition Costs
E - Low Carbon Transition Methodologies
E - Low Carbon Transition Policy
E - Low Carbon Transition Recommendations
E - Low Carbon Winners and Losers
E - Private Sector Role in LCT
E - Speed of Technology Diffusion
E - Temperature Scenarios and Forecasts
E - Underestimating Climate Risks
E - Worst Case Climate Change
L - Loopy System Diagrams
1.5oC - 2oC Comparing the implications
4oC - The estimated range of sea level rise impacts
87% of emissions from sectors in the Scale or Deploy stage
2007 Anticipated emissions from forests to 2100
2007 What's Different? No Silver Bullets
2008 Consumers are not changing their behavior
2008 In scenarios oil consumption peaks around 2020, gas 2025
2008 Sustainable level of emissions suggests a 90% drop in U.S. emissions
2008 Technology costs have declined rapidly
2008 We have historically over-estimated the costs of acting
2009 2050 Energy production by scenarios
2009 Annex 1 and non Annex 1 pathways for 4 degrees
2009 Snapshot of world GHG emissions by sector, 2000
2010 Implementing the three strategies
2010 Per capita emissions vs. what is "sustainable" for 2oC
2011 Energy sector employment under 2% investment initiatve
2011 Scenario land use vs. other scenario
2012 Evolution of transport sector technologies now to 2030
2012 The key metrics for 2050 reductions
2012 Transitions in energy use patterns 1850-2010
2013 Forecasting global baseline CO2 emissions
2014 Assumed reference case in RCP8.5 range
2014 Global proportion of low-carbon energy
2014 Projected emissions in 2030
2014 Rate of growth of wind and solar
2014 Wind deployment way up
2015 13. Emissions would fall dramatically
2015 Business as usual emission to 2040
2015 Emissions by source and sector
2015 Emissions pathways with overlaid risk time horizons
2015 Fluorinated gases emissions to 2050
2015 Many scenarios for reaching 80-100% renewables
2016 1.5 to 4.5 degrees C by 2100 with high degree of confidence
2016 A rapid growth in infrastructure initiatives
2016 Annual land use gain/loss 1990 - 2015
2016 Electricity demand from EVs will soar
2016 Historical forest expansion compared to MCS benchmark5
2016 Increase in resource use to 2025 and 2040
2016 Net electricity generation to 2050
2016 What outcomes are infrastructure initiatives focused on
2017 1 Million Additional Jobs by 2050
2017 2017 Average annual change in investment vs. fuel expenditures to 2050
2017 A different view of the future
2017 A More Detailed Look at the 9 Regions
2017 A radically different view of the future
2017 Carbon prices vs SCC estimates around the world
2017 Coal consumption vs. Peabody share price
2017 Depletion of Resources
2017 Electric car diffusion
2017 Global Climate Change
2017 Global Climate Change
2017 Implications of delaying the peak in global emissions
2017 Increasing oil use efficiency
2017 Models are assuming a lot of negative emissions
2017 NCS as fraction of needed reductions by 2030, 37% through 2030, 20% through 2050, and 9% through 2100
2017 Population Growth and Poverty
2017 Potential Unraveling of Civilization
2017 Summarizing the Pathways
2017 The Fundamental Dilemma
2017 Threats to Food Security
2017 Three Kinds of Growth
2017 Total installed capacity as multiple of peak demand
2017 Traditional oil forecasts
2017 Unlimited Growth vs. Finite Planet
2020 100% Solar, Wind, and Batteries is Just the Beginning
2020 100% Solar, Wind, and Batteries is Possible
2020 100% Solar, Wind, and Batteries is the Cheapest System by 2030
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Headings - Extracted Materials
E - Systemic Climate Risk
Extracted Graphics | Extracted Ideas
Systemic Risk Events and a Low Carbon Transition