2080-2100 (2012) The frequency of what today are 1 in 20 year events
E - Changing Return Periods
2012 Trenberth_Heat Waves and Climate Change
I:ChangingReturnPeriods (HowCanIVisualize?)
Coastal flooding will increase in NYC
I:1.5vs2.0Degrees (HowCanIVisualize?)
Climate Central - Threatened U.S. Cities by Decade
2015 A climate change Christmas: the hottest deals of 2056 – video
2015 Earth Under Water in 2040 HD Documentary 2015
1500-2010 (2012) European summer temperatures 1500-2010
1500-2010 (2012) Frequency of extreme European summers
1900-2010 (2011) Anomalies are clearly trending towards hot and very hot temperatures
1900-2010 (2011) U.S. temperature anomalies not nearly as clear as other parts of the world
1900-2100 (2008) Change in daily heavy precipitation events, with uncertainty
1900-2100 (2008) Increase in % of warm nights for North America, with uncertainty
1900-2100 (2010) Changes in permafrost coverage to 2100
1900-2100 (2012) Estimated ocean acidification under alternative emissions scenarios
1920-2100 (2017) A massive increase in "nuisance flooding" around the U.S.
1950-2010 (2011) Fraction of surface area that's cold or hot shifting significantly
1950-2010 (2011) One can see a systematic warming signal in a number of regions
1950-2010 (2011) The extreme heat tail of anomalies has shifted by 1 SD over 3 decades
1950-2010 (2011) We can track how annual anomalies diverge in terms of SDs from the baseline
1950-2011 (2011) The fraction of land area with very high extremes is increasing
1950-2011 (2012) Temperature anomaly distributions during the summer for the U.S.
1950-2011 (2013) It's not the change in global average temperature that really matters, it's the tails of the probability curve
1950-2015 (2016) North and Southern hemisphere temperature anomaly shifts
1950-2015 (2016) Regional shifts in temperature anomalies - Africa, Middle East, SE Asia
1950-2015 (2016) Regional shifts in temperature anomalies - U.S., Europe, China, India
1955-2007 (2011) We can track how surface temperatures are changing over time
1955-2011 (2011) The proportion of surface area displaying >3 SDs is growing significantly
1980-2040 (2009) Decreasing habitat for coldwater fish
1980-2100 (2014) North Hemisphere near-surface permafrost area to 2100
1980-2100 (2014) Northern Hemisphere snow cover change to 2100
1980-2100 (2014) Number of days over 95o (F) RCP 8.5 Median and 1 in 20 chance
1980-2100 (2015) Change in after number of days over 95 degrees (F) Median and 1 in 20 chance estimates
2000-2013 (2016) Observed change in U.S. precipitation patterns
2000-2050 (2012) Annual probability of loss due to hurricanes for Miami-Dade Region
2000-2050 (2012) Expected value of hurricane damages to Miami-Dade
2000-2050 (2012) Expected value of hurricane damanges to Miami-Dade
2000-2050 (2012) Frequency of Cat 4-5 hurricanes expected to increase 80% by 2050, while Cat 1-3 decline 38%
2000-2050 (2012) Return frequency declining for major hurricanes
2000-2060 (2016) Change in coastal population exposure by country
2010 Annualized U.S. loss trend - water impacts
2010 High value sector water availability - municipalities, industry, energy
2010 Hydroelectric water availability
2010 Mining water availability
2010 Normalized state by state water availability in 2050
2010 Relating sea level rise to storm return time for NYC
2010 Second order uncertainty is the uncertainty in the uncertainty
2011 Anticipated changes in stream-flow in 2050
2011 Very good chance we're already committed to >2 degrees C
2012 Estimated return period for low precipitation events has gotten somewhat shorter, for temperature extremes MUCH shorter
2012 Models clearly project changes in heat extreme return periods (see NA detail)
2012 Models clearly project precipitation extreme impact return periods over time (see NA detail)
2012 Ratio of high to low records in the U.S. 1950's to 2000's
2012 Return periods have changed
2012 The probabilty of warm winters in UK is 60 times more likely
2015 Timescales of climate processes and inclusion of feedbacks in climate models
2017 Changing Cold Hardiness zones in Oregon to 2050
2017 Forecasting OR's winter temperature change
2030 (2017) Climate change could raise extreme poverty significantly
2030 (2020) Vulnerability of global infrastructure assets
2030-2050 - Change in surface water supply
2030-2050 (2020) # of countries with GDP at risk from reduced effective working hours
2030-2050 (2020) Average land and sea surface temperature anomaly under RCP 4.5 and 8.5
2030-2050 (2020) GDP at risk from impact on effective working hours
2030-2050 (2020) Increase in 50-year precipitation events
2030-2050 (2020) Lethal heat wave probabilities in India
2030-2050 (2020) Lethal heat wave probability
2030-2050 (2020) Probability of drought across Africa
2030-2050 (2020) Probability of drought in Meditteranean
2030-2050 (2020) Probability of lost working hours in India
2030-2050 (2020) Regional increase in average annual temperature
2030-2050 (2020) Regional temperature changes against global RCP 8.5 scenario
2030-2050 (2020) Risk of >15% global yield failure increases 2x and 5x
2030-2050 Change in global drought likelihood
2040 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge
2040 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA
2050 (2014) Planting zone changes over time
2050-2100 (2012) Projected increase 20-year return values of annual maximum daily temperatures
2050-2100 (2012) Projected return period for today’s 1 in 20 years annual maximum temperatures
2050-2100 (2012) Significant trends in the number of dry days, and soil moisture
2050-2100 (2015) Likelihood of a more than 10% increase in number of water-stressed people by region
2050-2100 (2015) Probability of a 50% increase in annual area cropland affected by drought
2060 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge
2060 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA
2080 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge
2080 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA
2100 (2008) Global changes in annual runoff
2100 (2012) Expected change in regional extreme temperatures (degrees and SDs)
2100 (2012) Expected regional temperature change (degrees and SDs)
2100 (2012) Percentage of expected to exceed 3, 4, and 5 SDs from current temperatures
2100 (2013) Climate vs. Population impact for 1% Annual Flood Discharge change
2100 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge
2100 (2013) Median Projected Change in Flood Hazard Parameter
2100 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA for 2100
2100 (2013) Monte Carlo Distribution for 1% Annual Flood Discharge change
2100 (2014) Change in North American winter precipitation changes across multiple scenarios
2100 (2014) Change in per capita direct energy expenditure by state for RCP 8.5 scenario
2100 (2014) Changing heat and humid heat stroke index days by U.S. state
2100 (2014) Per capita state-level direct costs from increasing mortality under RCP 8.5 scenario
2100 (2014) Seasonal precipitation change under RCP 8.5
2100 (2017) 1.9 million homes are at risk of being underwater by 2100 based on six feet of sea level rise
2100 100 Degree days in U.S. Under 2 Emissions Scenarios
Annual precipitation return periods - Chesapeake Bay
Annual probability of hurricane loss
As can be seen in forecasting likely African crop failures
Change in hurricane probability to 2060
Change in precipitation return values per 1 degree of warming
Change in return period for an extreme event due to a trend in the mean
Change in stream temperature to 2050 RCP8.5
Change in streamflow to 2050 based on RCP8.5
Changing U.S. frequency of 1 in 20 year events by 2099
Evolution of precipitation return periods - Chesapeake Bay
Evolution of Precipitation return periods - Chesapeake Bay
Probability of a major hurricane strike in MA increases significantly
Projected difference in Dry days for Africa to 2050's
Projected increase in heat deaths
Return period for climate risks posing a threat to government budgets
The 25-year flood baseline
Three possible outcomes in terms of probability shifts
U.S. change in extreme precipitation 2050 RCP4.5
When does the 5-year event become the .2 year event
Where hail sizes will increase
Year of climate departure
2010-2100 (2015) Probability that today’s 30-year floods will occur in a given year regionally
2010-2100 Number of 100 degree (F) days in the U.S. based on emissions scenarios
2010-2100 Regional Warming under 3 scenarios
2018-2050 (2020) Countries with lowest GDP per capita face biggest climate risk increaseunder RCP 8.5
2018-2050 (2020) How countries group by vulnerability to climate risks
2020-2050 (2020) Increase in long tail risk of hurricane damages in Florida
2020-2090 (2010) Good example of IPCC projections of change between 2020 and 2090
2020-2100 (2014) Changes in NYC 100-year flood zones
2030 - 2050 (2020) Anticipated temperature change across Africa
Plausible worst case impacts on drought in 2050
Plausible worst case increase in # of people flooding in 2050
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2080-2100 (2012) The frequency of what today are 1 in 20 year events
2012 Trenberth_Heat Waves and Climate Change
Under-Estimating Climate Risk