2010 Relating sea level rise to storm return time for NYC

2012 Estimated return period for low precipitation events has gotten somewhat shorter, for temperature extremes MUCH shorter

2012 Models clearly project changes in heat extreme return periods (see NA detail)

2012 Models clearly project precipitation extreme impact return periods over time (see NA detail)

2012 Return periods have changed

2012 The probabilty of warm winters in UK is 60 times more likely

2050-2100 (2012) Projected return period for today’s 1 in 20 years annual maximum temperatures

Annual precipitation return periods - Chesapeake Bay

Change in hurricane probability to 2060

Change in precipitation return values per 1 degree of warming

Change in return period for an extreme event due to a trend in the mean

Changing U.S. frequency of 1 in 20 year events by 2099

Evolution of precipitation return periods - Chesapeake Bay

Evolution of Precipitation return periods - Chesapeake Bay

Probability of a major hurricane strike in MA increases significantly

Return period for climate risks posing a threat to government budgets

The 25-year flood baseline

U.S. change in extreme precipitation 2050 RCP4.5

When does the 5-year event become the .2 year event

Coastal flooding will increase in NYC

I:1.5vs2.0Degrees (HowCanIVisualize?)

Climate Central - Threatened U.S. Cities by Decade

2015 A climate change Christmas: the hottest deals of 2056 – video

2015 Earth Under Water in 2040 HD Documentary 2015

1500-2010 (2012) European summer temperatures 1500-2010

1500-2010 (2012) Frequency of extreme European summers

1900-2010 (2011) Anomalies are clearly trending towards hot and very hot temperatures

1900-2010 (2011) U.S. temperature anomalies not nearly as clear as other parts of the world

1900-2100 (2008) Change in daily heavy precipitation events, with uncertainty

1900-2100 (2008) Increase in % of warm nights for North America, with uncertainty

1900-2100 (2010) Changes in permafrost coverage to 2100

1900-2100 (2012) Estimated ocean acidification under alternative emissions scenarios

1920-2100 (2017) A massive increase in "nuisance flooding" around the U.S.

1950-2010 (2011) Fraction of surface area that's cold or hot shifting significantly

1950-2010 (2011) One can see a systematic warming signal in a number of regions

1950-2010 (2011) The extreme heat tail of anomalies has shifted by 1 SD over 3 decades

1950-2010 (2011) We can track how annual anomalies diverge in terms of SDs from the baseline

1950-2011 (2011) The fraction of land area with very high extremes is increasing

1950-2011 (2012) Temperature anomaly distributions during the summer for the U.S.

1950-2011 (2013) It's not the change in global average temperature that really matters, it's the tails of the probability curve

1950-2015 (2016) North and Southern hemisphere temperature anomaly shifts

1950-2015 (2016) Regional shifts in temperature anomalies - Africa, Middle East, SE Asia

1950-2015 (2016) Regional shifts in temperature anomalies - U.S., Europe, China, India

1955-2007 (2011) We can track how surface temperatures are changing over time

1955-2011 (2011) The proportion of surface area displaying >3 SDs is growing significantly

1980-2040 (2009) Decreasing habitat for coldwater fish

1980-2100 (2014) North Hemisphere near-surface permafrost area to 2100

1980-2100 (2014) Northern Hemisphere snow cover change to 2100

1980-2100 (2014) Number of days over 95o (F) RCP 8.5 Median and 1 in 20 chance

1980-2100 (2015) Change in after number of days over 95 degrees (F) Median and 1 in 20 chance estimates

2000-2013 (2016) Observed change in U.S. precipitation patterns

2000-2050 (2012) Annual probability of loss due to hurricanes for Miami-Dade Region

2000-2050 (2012) Expected value of hurricane damages to Miami-Dade

2000-2050 (2012) Expected value of hurricane damanges to Miami-Dade

2000-2050 (2012) Frequency of Cat 4-5 hurricanes expected to increase 80% by 2050, while Cat 1-3 decline 38%

2000-2050 (2012) Return frequency declining for major hurricanes

2000-2060 (2016) Change in coastal population exposure by country

2010 Annualized U.S. loss trend - water impacts

2010 High value sector water availability - municipalities, industry, energy

2010 Hydroelectric water availability

2010 Mining water availability

2010 Normalized state by state water availability in 2050

2010 Second order uncertainty is the uncertainty in the uncertainty

2011 Anticipated changes in stream-flow in 2050

2011 Very good chance we're already committed to >2 degrees C

2015 Timescales of climate processes and inclusion of feedbacks in climate models

2017 Changing Cold Hardiness zones in Oregon to 2050

2017 Forecasting OR's winter temperature change

2030 (2017) Climate change could raise extreme poverty significantly

2030 (2020) Vulnerability of global infrastructure assets

2030-2050 - Change in surface water supply

2030-2050 (2020) # of countries with GDP at risk from reduced effective working hours

2030-2050 (2020) Average land and sea surface temperature anomaly under RCP 4.5 and 8.5

2030-2050 (2020) GDP at risk from impact on effective working hours

2030-2050 (2020) Increase in 50-year precipitation events

2030-2050 (2020) Lethal heat wave probabilities in India

2030-2050 (2020) Lethal heat wave probability

2030-2050 (2020) Probability of drought across Africa

2030-2050 (2020) Probability of drought in Meditteranean

2030-2050 (2020) Probability of lost working hours in India

2030-2050 (2020) Regional increase in average annual temperature

2030-2050 (2020) Regional temperature changes against global RCP 8.5 scenario

2030-2050 (2020) Risk of >15% global yield failure increases 2x and 5x

2030-2050 Change in global drought likelihood

2040 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge

2040 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA

2050 (2014) Planting zone changes over time

2050-2100 (2012) Projected increase 20-year return values of annual maximum daily temperatures

2050-2100 (2012) Projected return period for today’s 1 in 20 years annual maximum temperatures

2050-2100 (2012) Significant trends in the number of dry days, and soil moisture

2050-2100 (2015) Likelihood of a more than 10% increase in number of water-stressed people by region

2050-2100 (2015) Probability of a 50% increase in annual area cropland affected by drought

2060 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge

2060 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA

2080 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge

2080 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA

2100 (2008) Global changes in annual runoff

2100 (2012) Expected change in regional extreme temperatures (degrees and SDs)

2100 (2012) Expected regional temperature change (degrees and SDs)

2100 (2012) Percentage of expected to exceed 3, 4, and 5 SDs from current temperatures

2100 (2013) Climate vs. Population impact for 1% Annual Flood Discharge change

2100 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge

2100 (2013) Median Projected Change in Flood Hazard Parameter

2100 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA for 2100

2100 (2013) Monte Carlo Distribution for 1% Annual Flood Discharge change

2100 (2014) Change in North American winter precipitation changes across multiple scenarios

2100 (2014) Change in per capita direct energy expenditure by state for RCP 8.5 scenario

2100 (2014) Changing heat and humid heat stroke index days by U.S. state

2100 (2014) Per capita state-level direct costs from increasing mortality under RCP 8.5 scenario

2100 (2014) Seasonal precipitation change under RCP 8.5

2100 (2017) 1.9 million homes are at risk of being underwater by 2100 based on six feet of sea level rise

2100 100 Degree days in U.S. Under 2 Emissions Scenarios

Annual probability of hurricane loss

As can be seen in forecasting likely African crop failures

Change in hurricane probability to 2060

Change in stream temperature to 2050 RCP8.5

Change in streamflow to 2050 based on RCP8.5

Projected difference in Dry days for Africa to 2050's

Projected increase in heat deaths

Where hail sizes will increase

Year of climate departure

2010-2100 (2015) Probability that today’s 30-year floods will occur in a given year regionally

2010-2100 Number of 100 degree (F) days in the U.S. based on emissions scenarios

2010-2100 Regional Warming under 3 scenarios

2018-2050 (2020) Countries with lowest GDP per capita face biggest climate risk increaseunder RCP 8.5

2018-2050 (2020) How countries group by vulnerability to climate risks

2020-2050 (2020) Increase in long tail risk of hurricane damages in Florida

2020-2090 (2010) Good example of IPCC projections of change between 2020 and 2090

2020-2100 (2014) Changes in NYC 100-year flood zones

2030 - 2050 (2020) Anticipated temperature change across Africa

Plausible worst case impacts on drought in 2050

Plausible worst case increase in # of people flooding in 2050

1950-2011 (2012) Temperature anomaly distributions during the summer for the U.S.

2012 Ratio of high to low records in the U.S. 1950's to 2000's

Three possible outcomes in terms of probability shifts