Headings - Extracted Materials
E - Climate Risk Scenario Extracts
Knowledgebase headings pull together materials from numerous sources
Infographic - What are the RCPs
E - Adaptation Scenarios
E - Climate Futures Scenarios in CliFi
E - Policy Scenarios
E - Population Scenarios
E - Scenarios Through Storytelling
E - Underestimating Climate Risks
Are disaster scenarios about tipping points like ‘turning off the Gulf Stream’ and release of methane from the Arctic a cause for concern?
2011 Plan for “Perfect Storm” and Policy Failure Scenarios
2012 There's huge uncertainty about really long-term outcomes
2013 We can only burn 30% of proven reserves on 2oC pathway - massive stranded investments
2016 94% of analysts don't focus on earnings after 5 years
2016 Accelerate the risk, increase the premium, or extend the time horizon
2016 Increase in resource use to 2025 and 2040
2016 Interplay between transition and physical risks
2016 Key challenges of scenario development
2016 Risks are long-term, investment focus short-term
2016 Transition scenarios - IEA outlook to 2040
2016 Translating 2D roadmaps into financial parameters (13)
2018 The most common scenarios
2018 The scenario probability distribution
Analytical process
Comparing the Two Scenarios p.1
Conflict scenario 2010-2020
Conflict scenario 2020-2030
IPCC RCP Scenarios in AR5
No sensible risk management framework should ignore worst case scenarios
Probability distribution of scenarios
Security Outlook 2030 - Three scenarios
Technology Scenarios
The scenarios used in the NCA:vs. the new IPCC Scenarios
There are many scenarios being discussed
2013 There is a lot of uncertainty re future scenarios
1. Some popular climate scenarios
3. What if We Decided to Really Tackle Climate Change?
7. Darker Climate Change Scenarios
A high risk climate scenario for 2050
a. The implications of already committed-to warming.
Key question for scenarios is resulting vulnerability
Radical technology innovation
Solving the climate change externality
Some risk analyses are trying to look at nearer-term risk
Risks - Business TOC
S - Abrupt Climate Change
S - Board of Directors/Trustee Liability
S - Carbon Intensity/Footprint as Business Risk
S - Carbon Pricing Policy as Business Risk
S - Climate Change Systemic Risk
S - Climate Change Tipping Points
S - Climate Uncertainties Unknowns
S - Divestment
S - Economic/Political Disruption as Business Risk
S - Economics of Extreme Events/Disasters
S - Electric Sector Climate Risk Assessment
S - Emerging Risks
S - Fossil Fuels and Fossil Free Investing
S - Historically Low Probability Outcomes as Business Risk
S - Impacts - Electric Sector
S - Infrastructure Impacts
S - Innovation and Disruption in the Electric Sector
S - Investing Under Uncertainty
S - Investor Action as Business Risk
S - Investor Expectations
S - Litigation Outcomes as Business Risk
S - National Climate Law
S - Nuisance, Negligence, and Strict Liability
S - Operational Risk
S - Policy Outcomes as Business Risk
S - Public Beliefs and Knowledge
S - SCC in Litigation
S - Sectoral Climate Impacts
S - Social Activism Movements and Climate Change
S - State and Local Climate Law
S - Stranded Assets
S - Supply Chain Disruption as Business Risk
N - A Policy Tipping Point?
N - Climate and Security
N - Climate Emergency
N - Credit Rating Impacts
N - Divestment
N - Green Power Purchasing
N - Indirect Impacts of Climate Change
N - Materiality of Climate Risk
N - Operational Risks
N - Policy Regulatory Risk
N - Public Opinion Tipping Points?
N - Real Estate Values and Sea Level Rise
N - Stock/Asset Price Impacts
N - Systemic Climate Risk
N - Tipping Point Coal
T - Climate Litigation Websites
T - Social Movements
T - Systemic Risk
V - Tipping Points
E - Brand Risks
E - Business Risk Assessment
E - Business Risk Disclosure Topics
E - Business Risk Scenarios
E - Business Risk Timing
E - Business Risks by Types
E - Business Sectors Top Level
E - Business Value at Risk
E - Carbon Asset Risks
E - CC and Equity Value
E - Climate as Investment Risk
E - Climate Impact on Returns
E - Climate Impacts on Corporate Ratings
E - Climate Impacts/Risks by Sector
E - Climate Risk and ERM
E - Climate Risk Scenario Extracts
E - Communicating shifting extremes
E - Dangerous Change
E - Fiduciary Responsibility
E - Impacts by Business Sector
E - Insurance Sector Risk
E - Liability Risks
E - Manifestations of climate risk
E - Mid-Term Risk
E - Near Term Risk
E - Perceptions and Positions re Climate Risk
E - Physical Risk Assessment
E - Policy/Regulatory Risks
E - Project/Infrastructure Risks
E - Resources Risks
E - Security Impacts
E - Stranded Assets - Value at Risk from Policy
E - Supply Chain Risks
E - Systemic Risk
E – Gas Risk
E – Metals and Mining Risk
E – Transport Sectors Risk
Scenario Planning TOC
S - Abrupt Climate Change
S - Adaptation Planning Scenarios
S - Board of Directors/Trustee Liability
S - Bounding Global SLR
S - Carbon Price Forecasts
S - CEQA-NEPA-SEPA Litigation
S - Climate Change Fingerprint to Date
S - Climate Change Scenario Planning
S - Climate Change Scenarios
S - Climate Change Tipping Points
S - Climate Risk Disclosure Regime
S - Climate Scenario Methodologies
S - Climate Scenario Variables
S - Climate Uncertainties Unknowns
S - Conflict and Climate Change
S - Current State of Climate Risk Reporting
S - Decision-Making Futures
S - Deep Uncertainty
S - Economic Futures
S - Economics Forecasting
S - Electric Sector Climate Risk Assessment
S - Electric Sector Futures
S - Emerging Risks
S - Environmental and Climate Storytelling
S - EPA Regulation of Carbon Under the CAA
S - Fire Impacts
S - Foresight How To
S - Future Forecasts and Case Studies
S - Futures and Foresight Top Level
S - Gaming for Climate Change
S - Geography-Specific Scenarios
S - Impacts - Electric Sector
S - Impacts by Type
S - Impacts By Degree
S - Infrastructure Impacts
S - Investing Under Uncertainty
S - Limits to Growth
S - Litigation Cases
S - Low Carbon Scenarios
S - Precipitation Impacts
S - Prediction Markets
S - Scenario Planning
S - Sector-Specific Futures
S - Sectoral Climate Impacts
S - Sectoral Risk Disclosure
S - SLR Sea Level Rise Sources - Topical
S - Social Activism Movements and Climate Change
S - SocioEconomic Pathways
S - Stranded Assets
S - TCFD Scenario Planning
S - Technology Futures
S - Temperature Impacts
S - Using Foresight
N - A Policy Tipping Point?
N - Activism
N - Carbon Price Forecasting
N - Carbon Pricing Advocacy
N - Changing Business Models
N - Climate and Security
N - Climate Risk Scenario News - Topical
N - Energy Futures
N - Forecasting the Future
N - Futures and Foresight Top Level
N - GND Strategy
N - Green Growth Climate Finance
N - Green Jobs
N - Green New Deal
N - Public Opinion Tipping Points?
N - Scenario Planning
N - SLR Bounding
N - Tipping Point Coal
T - Climate Activism
T - Climate and Security
T - Climate Scenario Tools
T - Scenario Planning Networks
T - Systems Thinking
V - Activism and Movements
V - Carbon Pricing
V - Climate Futures
V - Future and Foresight Videos
E - Black Swan Risks
E - Brand Risks
E - Business Carbon Pricing Advocacy
E - Business Risk Assessment
E - Business Risk Scenarios
E - Business Risk Timing
E - Business Scenario Planning
E - Business Value at Risk
E - Carbon Asset Risks
E - Carbon Pricing Extracts
E - Carbon Pricing Scenarios and Forecasts
E - Climate Activism
E - Climate Impacts/Risks by Sector
E - Climate Opportunities
E - Climate Risk Scenario Extracts
E - Expert Elicitation
E - Fiduciary Responsibility
E - Futures and Foresight Top Level
E - Liability Risks
E - Long-Term Thinking
E - Policy/Regulatory Risks
E - Predicting the Future
E - Private Sector in Green Growth
E - Project/Infrastructure Risks
E - Resources Risks
E - Risk Disclosure Materiality
E - Risk Disclosure Scenarios
E - Risk Disclosure Timeline
E - Scenario Disruptors
E - Scenario Planning
E - Scenario Triggers
E - Security Impacts
E - Supply Chain Risks
E - Systems Thinking
E - TCFD-Specific Guidance/Analysis
E - Temperature Scenarios and Forecasts
Strategists and Scenario Planners
S - Adaptation Planning Scenarios
S - Carbon Price Forecasts
S - Climate Change Scenario Planning
S - Climate Change Scenarios
S - Climate Scenario Methodologies
S - Climate Scenario Variables
S - Conflict and Climate Change
S - Deep Uncertainty
S - Economic Futures
S - Foresight How To
S - Futures and Foresight Top Level
S - Gaming for Climate Change
S - Geography-Specific Scenarios
S - Limits to Growth
S - Low Carbon Scenarios
S - Prediction Markets
S - Sector-Specific Futures
S - Social Activism Movements and Climate Change
S - SocioEconomic Pathways
S - TCFD Scenario Planning
S - Using Foresight
N - A Policy Tipping Point?
N - Activism
N - Carbon Price Forecasting
N - Carbon Pricing Advocacy
N - Changing Business Models
N - Climate and Security
N - Climate Risk Scenario News - Topical
N - Energy Futures
N - Forecasting the Future
N - Futures and Foresight Top Level
N - GND Strategy
N - Green Growth Climate Finance
N - Green Jobs
N - Green New Deal
N - Public Opinion Tipping Points?
N - Scenario Planning
N - Tipping Point Coal
T - Climate Activism
T - Climate and Security
T - Scenario Planning Networks
T - Systems Thinking
V - Activism and Movements
V - Carbon Pricing
V - Future and Foresight Videos
E - Business Carbon Pricing Advocacy
E - Business Risk Scenarios
E - Business Scenario Planning
E - Carbon Pricing Extracts
E - Carbon Pricing Scenarios and Forecasts
E - Climate Activism
E - Climate Risk Scenario Extracts
E - Expert Elicitation
E - Futures and Foresight Top Level
E - Predicting the Future
E - Private Sector in Green Growth
E - Scenario Planning
E - Scenario Triggers
E - Security Impacts
E - Systems Thinking
E - TCFD-Specific Guidance/Analysis
E - Future Scenarios
E - Business Risk Scenarios
E - Climate Investment Risk Scenarios
E - Climate Risk Scenario Extracts
E - The World in 2050
Comparing the Two Scenarios p. 2
Future climate in CA's Sierra Nevadas
Historical climate in CA's Sierra Nevadas
The next 50 years will determine the next 10,000 years
The Four Scenarios of the 2004 NIC report
E - Security and Climate
E - Climate Risk Scenario Extracts
E - Security Impacts
E - Security Responses
2009 Climate change has a range of domestic and international security implications
2011 Compound vulnerability is as determinative as exposure
2011 Observed sea level rise over last 12 years
2011 Projection of wetland loss along the NE under SLR scenarios
2011 The 4 climate security scenarios to be planning for
2011 The Navy's climate change risk assessment process
2012 Global water security map: Now vs. 2025
2014 The arctic open for commerce
2015 A climate security chronology
2015 Can climate change cause war and conflict?
2015 How can we address climate security risks?
2015 Is climate change a security risk?
2015 Where is climate change the biggest security threat?
2016 Probability of civil conflict with temperature increase\
2017 A significant overlap between global urbanization and climate change vulnerability
2021 Expert assessment of systemic cascading climate risks likely to lead to energy insecurity
A number of key waterways exist globally
CCAPS map for Africa
China deploying its fleet worldwide
Chronology of climate change and security events - back to 1999
Climate change both similar and very different to the cold war
Climate disaster events in South Asia
Countries are leasing land abroad for food production purposes
Damage to Homestead AFB after Hurricane Andrew
Diego Garcia is 1 meter above sea level
Energy Security vs. Climate Change
Extreme events lead to population displacement
Extreme events lead to population displacement - 2
Fish species are expected to shift and shrink
Forecasted changes in catch mapped against dietary importance
How storm surge works
Linking climate change to health outcomes
Mapping out coffee risks and opportunities
Navy has little capacity to operate in the Arctic
Pillars of a climate secure world
Precipitation, temperatures, drought severity index, population trends
Projected difference in Dry days for Africa to 2050's
Significant actions in roadmap 2010-2014
Top 15 countries and their exposure to coastal flooding in the 2070s
What's the perspective of the security community?
World's largest urban areas sit along coasts
And at least five major sources of uncertainty commonly encountered in both
Climate change integrated into security planning in several ways
Commissioned CNA to do a 2015 scenarios exercise
Current examples of how existing climate change may have influenced security outcomes
The more inter-connected the system, the more systemic risk
With high climate change security risks likely to change in magnitude
I - DangerousClimateChange (Deep Dive)
I - ScenarioPlanningforClimateChange (Deep Dive)
