E - Climate Risk Scenario Extracts
Infographic - What are the RCPs
E - Climate Futures Scenarios in CliFi
E - Scenarios Through Storytelling
E - Underestimating Climate Risks
Are disaster scenarios about tipping points like ‘turning off the Gulf Stream’ and release of methane from the Arctic a cause for concern?
2011 Plan for “Perfect Storm” and Policy Failure Scenarios
2012 There's huge uncertainty about really long-term outcomes
2013 There is a lot of uncertainty re future scenarios
2013 We can only burn 30% of proven reserves on 2oC pathway - massive stranded investments
2016 94% of analysts don't focus on earnings after 5 years
2016 Accelerate the risk, increase the premium, or extend the time horizon
2016 Increase in resource use to 2025 and 2040
2016 Interplay between transition and physical risks
2016 Key challenges of scenario development
2016 Risks are long-term, investment focus short-term
2016 Transition scenarios - IEA outlook to 2040
2016 Translating 2D roadmaps into financial parameters (13)
2018 The most common scenarios
2018 The scenario probability distribution
Comparing the Two Scenarios p.1
Conflict scenario 2010-2020
Conflict scenario 2020-2030
IPCC RCP Scenarios in AR5
No sensible risk management framework should ignore worst case scenarios
Probability distribution of scenarios
Security Outlook 2030 - Three scenarios
The scenarios used in the NCA:vs. the new IPCC Scenarios
There are many scenarios being discussed
1. Some popular climate scenarios
3. What if We Decided to Really Tackle Climate Change?
7. Darker Climate Change Scenarios
A high risk climate scenario for 2050
a. The implications of already committed-to warming.
Key question for scenarios is resulting vulnerability
Radical technology innovation
Solving the climate change externality
Some risk analyses are trying to look at nearer-term risk
Strategists and Scenario Planners
I:DangerousClimateChange (Deep Dive)
I:ScenarioPlanningforClimateChange (Deep Dive)
S - Abrupt Climate Change
S - Adaptation Planning Scenarios
S - Board of Directors/Trustee Liability
S - Carbon Intensity/Footprint as Business Risk
S - Carbon Price Forecasts
S - Carbon Pricing Policy as Business Risk
S - CEQA-NEPA-SEPA Litigation
S - Climate Change Fingerprint to Date
S - Climate Change Scenario Planning
S - Climate Change Scenarios
S - Climate Change Systemic Risk
S - Climate Change Tipping Points
S - Climate Risk Disclosure Regime
S - Climate Scenario Methodologies
S - Climate Scenario Variables
S - Climate Uncertainties Unknowns
S - Conflict and Climate Change
S - Current State of Climate Risk Reporting
S - Decision-Making Futures
S - Economic/Political Disruption as Business Risk
S - Economics Forecasting
S - Economics of Extreme Events/Disasters
S - Electric Sector Climate Risk Assessment
S - Electric Sector Futures
S - Environmental and Climate Storytelling
S - EPA Regulation of Carbon Under the CAA
S - Fossil Fuels and Fossil Free Investing
S - Future Forecasts and Case Studies
S - Futures and Foresight Top Level
S - Gaming for Climate Change
S - Geography-Specific Scenarios
S - Historically Low Probability Outcomes as Business Risk
S - Impacts - Electric Sector
S - Infrastructure Impacts
S - Innovation and Disruption in the Electric Sector
S - Investing Under Uncertainty
S - Investor Action as Business Risk
S - Investor Expectations
S - Litigation Outcomes as Business Risk
S - Nuisance, Negligence, and Strict Liability
S - Policy Outcomes as Business Risk
S - Precipitation Impacts
S - Public Beliefs and Knowledge
S - Sector-Specific Futures
S - Sectoral Climate Impacts
S - Sectoral Risk Disclosure
S - SLR Sea Level Rise Sources - Topical
S - Social Activism Movements and Climate Change
S - SocioEconomic Pathways
S - State and Local Climate Law
S - Supply Chain Disruption as Business Risk
S - TCFD Scenario Planning
N - A Policy Tipping Point?
N - Carbon Price Forecasting
N - Carbon Pricing Advocacy
N - Changing Business Models
N - Climate Risk Scenario News - Topical
N - Credit Rating Impacts
N - Forecasting the Future
N - Futures and Foresight Top Level
N - Green Growth Climate Finance
N - Green Power Purchasing
N - Indirect Impacts of Climate Change
N - Materiality of Climate Risk
N - Policy Regulatory Risk
N - Public Opinion Tipping Points?
N - Real Estate Values and Sea Level Rise
N - Stock/Asset Price Impacts
N - Systemic Climate Risk
T - Climate Litigation Websites
T - Climate Scenario Tools
T - Scenario Planning Networks
V - Activism and Movements
V - Future and Foresight Videos
E - Business Carbon Pricing Advocacy
E - Business Risk Assessment
E - Business Risk Disclosure Topics
E - Business Risk Scenarios
E - Business Risks by Types
E - Business Scenario Planning
E - Business Sectors Top Level
E - Business Value at Risk
E - Carbon Pricing Extracts
E - Carbon Pricing Scenarios and Forecasts
E - Climate as Investment Risk
E - Climate Impact on Returns
E - Climate Impacts on Corporate Ratings
E - Climate Impacts/Risks by Sector
E - Climate Investment Risk Scenarios
E - Climate Opportunities
E - Communicating shifting extremes
E - Fiduciary Responsibility
E - Futures and Foresight Top Level
E - Impacts by Business Sector
E - Insurance Sector Risk
E - Manifestations of climate risk
E - Perceptions and Positions re Climate Risk
E - Physical Risk Assessment
E - Policy/Regulatory Risks
E - Predicting the Future
E - Private Sector in Green Growth
E - Project/Infrastructure Risks
E - Risk Disclosure Materiality
E - Risk Disclosure Scenarios
E - Risk Disclosure Timeline
E - Stranded Assets - Value at Risk from Policy
E - TCFD-Specific Guidance/Analysis
E - Temperature Scenarios and Forecasts
E – Metals and Mining Risk
E – Transport Sectors Risk
2009 Climate change has a range of domestic and international security implications
2010 Countries are leasing land abroad for food production purposes
2011 Compound vulnerability is as determinative as exposure
2011 Observed sea level rise over last 12 years
2011 Projection of wetland loss along the NE under SLR scenarios
2011 The 4 climate security scenarios to be planning for
2011 The Navy's climate change risk assessment process
2014 The arctic open for commerce
2015 A climate security chronology
2015 Can climate change cause war and conflict?
2015 How can we address climate security risks?
2015 Is climate change a security risk?
2015 Where is climate change the biggest security threat?
2016 Probability of civil conflict with temperature increase
2017 A significant overlap between global urbanization and climate change vulnerability
2021 Expert assessment of systemic cascading climate risks likely to lead to energy insecurity
2022 Economies exposed to some portion of shock from Ukraine war
2022 FAO Food index prices 2019-April 2022
2022 Global greenhouse gas emissions and warming scenarios
2022 Rising prices elevate the alarm for food security and political stability - Ukraine crisis
A number of key waterways exist globally
China deploying its fleet worldwide
Chronology of climate change and security events - back to 1999
Climate change both similar and very different to the cold war
No more concurrent uploads are allowed - wait until at least one has finished.
Headings - Extracted Materials
E - Climate Risk Scenario Extracts
Knowledgebase headings pull together materials from numerous sources