Headings - Extracted Materials
E - Real Estate Values and SLR
Extracted Graphics | Extracted Ideas
Sea Level Rise as Real Estate Risk
Who ows the risk Florida's residential real estate market?
Jesse Keenan, associate professor at Tulane University: “Conventional mortgages have survived many financial crises, but they may not survive the climate crisis. ... This trend also reflects a systematic financial risk for banks and the U.S. taxpayers who ultimately foot the bill.”
2010 1 Meter of Sea Level Rise on the Gulf Coast
2011 Forecasted impacts under observerd SLR scenario
2011 Forecasted impacts under the accelerated SLR scenario
2012 Methodology used
2014 C/bs were evaluated under current and future (one meter change to CHHA line) scenarios
2014 Flood risk in Seattle based on SLR by 2100, high tide and storm surge
2014 Miami MSL projections of different probabilities
2016 2 Million homes worth $900 billion are at risk if seas rise 6 feet
2016 6 feet of SLR in San Diego, CA
2016 6 feet SLR in Long Beach, CA
2016 A metaphor for the indefensibility of a lot of coastal real estate
2016 Coastal Risk Highlights
2016 How many homes under water with 6 feet of SLR?
2017 6 feet of SLR in Boston
2017 6 feet of SLR in in Seattle
2017 6 feet SLR in Honolulu
2017 6 feet SLR in Jacksonville, FL
2017 6 feet SLR in New York City
2017 6 feet SLR in Tampa, FL
2017 6 feet SLR in Virginia Beach
2017 10 metro areas hit hardest by rising seas (based on 6 feet by 2100)
2017 Circular plot of SLR migration flows under a 6ft scenario - no adaptation
2017 Estimated SLR neg migration under a 6 ft scenario - no adaptation
2017 Florida, Texas, and Louisiana lead the nation in NFIP coverage
2017 Linking SLR to annual variability in flooding risk
2017 Major metropolitan areas at risk of storm surge
2017 Net change in population under 6ft of SLR - no adaptation
2017 Residential property exposure by coastal region
2018 Elevation of properties in Miami-Date Country
2021 49% of Americans Who Plan to Move In the Next Year Say Natural Disasters Were a Factor
2021 Projected population and property value in coastal areas at risk of inundation
2021 Projected population and property value in coastal areas that could be excluded from adaptation
2100 (2017) 1.9 million homes are at risk of being underwater by 2100 based on six feet of sea level rise
Miami properties
Miami, FL
Multiple costs and benefits for each strategy considered
Number of homes at risk nationally from hurricane storm surge
One view of property loss from coastal erosion in Delaware
Real estate in FL's flood prone areas has slumped in sales
Real estate sales in flood-prone areas have slowed compared to other areas
Regression coefficients for different areas
Several pathways by which CG could manifest
Storm surge risk by state
The range of elevations for Miami-Dade County
Top 15 historical storm surge events in Florida
Top 15 historical storm surrge events in Florida
Underwater homes in Saint Petersburg
Unincorporated properties
Urban, suburban, and rural homes affected (based on 6 feet)
65,000 homes in Florida worth $35 billion are expected to be underwater or impacted daily by high tides in 2040
A lot of people won't even consider buying in flood areas
Banks are shifting mortgages with flood risk off their books and over to organizations like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Big real estate firms are pouring resources into calculating climate risk and its likely effect on property portfolios — everything from increasingly extreme weather to sea-level rise.
Damage to U.S. real estate from extreme storms hit a record high in 2017. Natural disasters, including floods, mudslides and wildfires, cost more than $300 billion in damage, the bulk of it to residential and commercial real estate.
Environmental justice implications of changing buying trends
Impact of rising temperatures on coastal flooding and nearby property
In an effort to avoid risks of climate change-caused defaults on mortgages – especially involving homes facing sea-level rise and increased flooding – banks have been selling off those mortgages.
Metropolitan East Coast faces potential losses up to $250 billion
Pacifica, California: Pacifica has become a story of unplanned, forced retreat and the public got stuck with the bill
Penelas County will be hit the hardest by changes in flood insurance. Whole areas will be devastated
Premiums in one area could go from $1,000 to $10,000; home becomes worthless
Problems with building in an area that’s likely to flood
Recommended mitigation strategies for real estate management
Rhode Island Coastal Resources Management Council (CRMC) has figured out a way to warn people about coastal risk potential without flat-out prohibiting them from buying, financing, or altering those properties
The question that matters, according to researchers, isn’t whether the effects of climate change will start to ripple through the housing market. Rather, it’s how fast those effects will occur and what they will look like.
SLR Sea Level Rise TOC
I - BoundingSeaLevelRise
I - CommunicatingSLR
I - Flooding
I - MeltwaterPulse
I - SLRandMigration
I - SLREconomicImpacts
I - SLRinScenarioPlanning
I - StormSurgeandSeaLevelRise
S - Bounding Global SLR
S - Coastal SLR Adaptation/Resilience
S - Communicating SLR
S - Decision-Making Under SLR Uncertainty
S - Economics of SLR
S - Impacts of SLR
S - Regional SLR
S - Risk Assessment for SLR
S - Risk Management for SLR
S - SLR Sea Level Rise Sources - Topical
S - SLR Vulnerability
S - Storm Surge
N - Arctic Impacts
N - Flood Insurance
N - Real Estate Values and Sea Level Rise
N - SLR Adaptation
N - SLR Bounding
N - SLR Sea Level Rise News - Topical
T - Adapt SLR
T - Sea Level Rise Networks
T - SLR Sea Level Rise Visualizations
V - SLR Sea Level Rise
E - Legal Implications of SLR
E - Real Estate Values and SLR
T - SLR Websites, Blogs, FB Home Pages
E - Impacts of SLR
20 Port Cities With Highest Climate Risk
Cities with the 10 highest flood costs by 2050
Coastal flooding will increase in NYC
Infographic - Sea levels will rise in New York City
Infographic - why should we consider adapting to sea level rise
Infographic: Sea level rise
Infographic: Sea Level Rise and Global Warming
Major Cities and Countries at Risk from Rising Sea Levels
Sites at Risk
Understanding CoastAdapt inundation maps
E - Global vs. Local SLR
E - Real Estate Values and SLR
4oC - The estimated range of sea level rise impacts
1980-2010 (2013) Projected vs. actual sea level rise
2014 Increase in average annual coastal storm damage due to higher seas in 2030
2014 Increase in average annual coastal storm damage due to higher seas in 2050
2014 Increase in average annual coastal storm damage due to higher seas in 2100
2014 Per capita increase in average annual storm damages due to SLR
2014 Per capita increase in state coastal damages due to SLR alone
2014 Per capita increase in state coastal damages due to SLR and potential hurricane activity change
2014 Probability distribution of annual increase in property damage assuming no change in hurricane activity
2014 Table of MSL and MHHW costs by 2050 and 2100
2018 Connecticut extent of chronic flooding, by year (2018-2100)
2018 Delaware extent of chronic flooding, by year (2018-2100)
2018 New Jersey and New York extents of chronic flooding, by year (2018-2100)
2019 Boston Harbor Islands NRA
2019 Canaveral National Seashore
2019 Cape Cod National Seashore
2019 Dry Tortugas National Park
2019 Everglades National Park
2019 Fire Island National Seashore
2019 Golden Gate National Recreation Area
2019 National Mall - Washington
2019 Padre Island National Seashore
2019 Projected flood risk in Imperial Beach
2019 Projected flood risk in San Francisco
2019 Wright Brothers National Memorial
EBITDA under alternative SLR scenarios
Graphic - Sea level rise vulnerability
Graphic - What causes sea-level-change
Physical impacts of sea level rise
Sea Level Rise Impacts Over Time
Socioeconomic impacts of sea level rise
The impact of potential increased hurricane activity
To look at sea level change, need to look over time
Total water levels for selected extreme events in the U.S.
When does the 5-year event become the .2 year event
A big difference in thinking about near term (0-20) and longer term SLR
An example of local relative sea level and its impact on minor flooding
Between 1960 and 2015, sea levels along the Florida coast rose by 10-15 cm (4-6 in), and the range of projections vary wide looking a few decades out, with projections ranging from 33 to 122cm (13-48 in) by 2060
Florida is home to 15% of the country's septic systems, and its low-lying geography makes it especially vulnerable to changes in sea level
If seas rise about six feet more than half of the waste storage sites would be directly along the water’s edge or even surrounded by water
If we can mitigate warming in line with the 2℃ Paris agreement, we could keep changes in wave patterns within the bounds of natural climate variability
The Great Climate Retreat - By the end of the century, 13 million Americans will need to move because of rising sea levels, at a cost of $1 million each according to Mathew Haeur, FSU demographer
United Nations report states that rising sea levels could render as many as 60 million toilets inoperable in the United States alone, as traditional septic systems are threatened by increased groundwater
E - Real Estate
E - Real Estate Values and SLR
2013 Comparing 6-month forecasts of 10-year bonds to actual
2014 Effects of climate change on property values
2014 Impact of projected climate change on hazard losses
2014 Increase in average annual coastal storm damage due to higher seas in 2030
2014 Increase in average annual coastal storm damage due to higher seas in 2050
2014 Increase in average annual coastal storm damage due to higher seas in 2100
2014 Probability distribution of annual increase in property damage assuming no change in hurricane activity
2014 Table of MSL and MHHW costs by 2050 and 2100
2016 # of staff focused on sustainability
2018 Assessing change in real estate loan to value ratios
2020 Percentage of properties at risk of flooding during a major storm - FEMA vs independent researchers
2020 Rising size of single family homes in U.S.
2020 Total home retrofit costs 2010-2025
Are green building certificates a proxy for climate resilience?
Barriers to green retrofit technoloy uptake in buildings
Building emissions and zero carbon opportunities
Change in global GDP by 2100
Comparing 6-month GDP forecasts to actual
Comparing 6-month vacancy forecasts to actual
Conclusions drawn from climate change risk assessments
Currently observed market impacts of climate change
Do companies carry out climate change risk assessments on their portfolios?
Framework for climate risk management
How do organizations assess climate risk
How uncertainties relate to each other in terms of natural hazard risk
Impact of climate change on future investment strategies
Impact of climate change on today's investment strategies
Portfolio reallocation in light of climate change
Real estate exposure to different risks
Real estate risk assessment for extreme weather events
Recommendations for real estate investors
Risks faced by real estate companies with inefficient building stocks
The impact of potential increased hurricane activity
Timeframe for appraising real estate investments
What climate change impacts do you expect to see by region?
Changing insurance costs: More than 230,000 households will see increases up to $240 in the first year; an additional 74,000 households will see costs rise by as much as $360. For about 25,000 single-family homes, addtional costs could reach as high as $1,200.
Climate change is causing many in the US to rethink where they want to live
FEMA cannot raise any homeowner’s flood insurance rates by more than 18 percent a year, thus it could take 20 years before some homeowners are charged full rates under new system
Florida adaptation to climate change - new insurance rates will take into account the size of a home, so large houses by the ocean could see an big jump in rates
New government approach to insurance: subsidized insurance has been critical for supporting coastal real estate markets; removing that subsidy likely to affect where Americans build houses and how much people will pay for them
E - SLR Sea Level Rise
E - Adapting to Sea Level Rise
E - Decision-Making for SLR
E - Glacier Loss Impacts
E - Global vs. Local SLR
E - Legal Implications of SLR
E - Real Estate Values and SLR
E - SLR Uncertainties
The last 8,000 years of sea level stability correspond to civilization and infrastruture
Can do the same with this image
0000 -10000 (2016) Long term sea level rise implications of current emissions scenarios
0-2000 (2014) Sea level change over the last 2000 years
3oC - Asian cities that will be worst affected by sea level rise
200X A closer look at that 10-32 inches
1800-2100 (2017) Revised global SLR scenarios
1800-2100 projected global sea levels - not modelled
1850-2010 (2013) The growing rate of sea level rise
1870-2010 (2009) Sea level rise since 1880
1880-1990 (1996) Historic role of greenhouse gases in SLR
1880-2020 (2017) Australian sea levels rising faster since 1993
1880-2100 (2014) Global SLR to 2100 based on IPCC scenarios
1900-2100 (2012) Global SLR scenarios
1900-2100 (2012) The rate of SLR is also projected to rise
1900-2100 (2016) Scenarios developed for the Third NCA
1950-2100 (2009) Projections of SLR based on AR4 temperature projections
1970-2010 (2009) SLR happening faster than expected
1980-2010 (2013) Projected vs. actual sea level rise
1980-2100 (2012) Understanding the difference of 2oC vs. 4oC for SLR projections
1990-2005 Observed SLR vs. model projections
1990-2200 (1996) GHG forcing in w/m2 underlying SLR estimates
1990-2300 (1995 ) Cumulative contribution of climate change to SLR
1990-2300 (1996) Global temperature change associated with SLR estimates
1990-2300 (2009) Recent SLR projections
2000-2100 (1983) Estimated contribution of variables to total SLR over time
2009 Long-term relationship of temperatures and sea levels
2011 Top 20 cities for exposed population
2011 Top 20 cities for exposure assets
2011 Top 20 cities for highest proportional increase in asset exposure
2013 NOAA_What will adaptation cost
2013 Temperature changes over the last 65 million years
2013 There is a strong correlation between CO2 and sea level
2015 Historical and projected SLR
2017 It's all about probabilities
2019 CoastalDEM versus SRTM by country
2019 Global populations on land at risk
2019 Global simulated error assessment results
2019 Individual ice sheet contributions to SLR for 2100 temperature scenarios
2019 Key West sea level rise risk by 2050
2019 Median and likely range estimates of the ice sheet SLR contributions for different temperature scenarios and different studies
2019 Number of people at risk by country from a sea level rise of 1.8 meters
2019 PDFs for both temperature trajectory scenarios for combined ice sheet contributions
2019 Pearl River Delta, China and Bangladesh predictions
2019 Permanent inundation surfaces predicted by CoastalDEM and SRTM given the median sea-level projection
2019 Projected sea-level rise contributions from each ice sheet and combined
2019 Southern Florida legacy model of sea level rise risk by 2050 vs. adjusted CoastalDem map
2019 Southern Vietnam: old vs. new projection for 2050
2019 Total global-mean sea-level rise projections
2020 Estimated losses due to sea level rise
2020 Historical experience CO2 vs. temp. and SLR
2020 Impact of sea level rise
2021 Committed sea level rise as a function of long-term global temperature increase
2021 Projected sea level rise for 10 most populous coastal cities in the US with SLR of 50cm and 100cm
2050-2100 (2013) Estimates of SLR in Maryland
2050-2100 (2019) Total global mean sea-level rise projections
2050-2300 (2017) Probabilistic projections of GMSL by RCP over time
2100 (2012) Estimates of projected sea level rise have varied widely
2100 (2013) Projections of potential sea level rise
2100-2300 (2015) Expert opinion on SLR by 2100 and 2300
2100-2300 (2017) Vulnerable populations based on SLR scenarios
2100-2300 (2019) Probability distributions H and L temperature, 2011 and 2300
12000 (2016) Distribution of sea level rise in 10,000 years based on lower emissions scenario
12000 (2016) Impact on countries and cities of 10,000 year SLR projection
Components of Extreme Still and Total Water Level
Could it more than proportional
EBITDA under alternative SLR scenarios
Estimated historical SLR per century
Five global scenarios used in the report
Global temperatures have varied considerably in the past, partially due to major tectonic shifts
Historical and Projected Sea Level
In a couple of decades this will be the "normal" for New Orleans
New Orleans could be an island by 2100
Record of Sea Level Change Over Last 900,000 Years
Sea levels have risen very fast in the past - 65 ft in four centuries some 14,000 years ago
SLR can magnify storm surge magnitude
Summary of Min-Max values based on regional adjustments
The primary causes of global SLR
To look at sea level change, need to look over time
Top 20 cities for exposure, 2010 and 2070
Total water levels for selected extreme events in the U.S.
1. Rely on the IPCC (10-32 inches) or National Climate Assessment (1-4 feet)?
2020-2100 (2012) USACE and NOAA SLR Curves
A lot of progress has been made over the last decade
About 6 million Floridians will need to move inland by century’s end to avoid inundation
Antarctica, long thought to be the “sleeping giant” of sea level rise, is actually a key player. Its ice sheets can change quickly, and in ways that could have huge implications for coastal communities and infrastructure in future.
Clear that SLR analysis needs to account for more variables and uncertainties than in the past
Dramatic sea level rise likely to year 3000, even without further emissions
Future changes in sea level: warming between the two poles in the last interglacial did not happen simultaneously. But under today’s greenhouse-gas-driven climate change, warming and ice loss are happening in both regions at the same time. This means that if climate change continues unabated, Earth’s past dramatic sea level rise could be a small taste of what’s to come.
How confident should we be that's the worst case?
How fast will sea levels rise?
Increase in 100-year flooding events based on 1 meter SLR
Massive increases in flood damage for 136 largest coastal cities by 2050
May already be impossible to avoid more than 10 meters of SLR
Per degree committment to SLR based on specific temperature thresholds
Representative GMSL scenarios from 2017 Sweet
Sea level rise is accelerating
Sea levels rose 10 metres above present levels during Earth’s last warm period 125,000 years ago
SLR unlikely to exceed 1 m this century, but could be several meters next century
study
The conversation is shifting from just SLR to "extreme still water" and "extreme total water" levels
The U.S. airports most vulnerable to sea level rise
Very few estimates of adaptation limits when it comes to SLR
I - RealEstateValuesUnderSLR
