Who ows the risk Florida's residential real estate market?

Jesse Keenan, associate professor at Tulane University: “Conventional mortgages have survived many financial crises, but they may not survive the climate crisis. ... This trend also reflects a systematic financial risk for banks and the U.S. taxpayers who ultimately foot the bill.”

2010 1 Meter of Sea Level Rise on the Gulf Coast

2011 Forecasted impacts under observerd SLR scenario

2011 Forecasted impacts under the accelerated SLR scenario

2012 Methodology used

2014 C/bs were evaluated under current and future (one meter change to CHHA line) scenarios

2014 Flood risk in Seattle based on SLR by 2100, high tide and storm surge

2014 Miami MSL projections of different probabilities

2016 2 Million homes worth $900 billion are at risk if seas rise 6 feet

2016 6 feet of SLR in San Diego, CA

2016 6 feet SLR in Long Beach, CA

2016 A metaphor for the indefensibility of a lot of coastal real estate

2016 Coastal Risk Highlights

2016 How many homes under water with 6 feet of SLR?

2017 6 feet of SLR in Boston

2017 6 feet of SLR in in Seattle

2017 6 feet SLR in Honolulu

2017 6 feet SLR in Jacksonville, FL

2017 6 feet SLR in New York City

2017 6 feet SLR in Tampa, FL

2017 6 feet SLR in Virginia Beach

2017 10 metro areas hit hardest by rising seas (based on 6 feet by 2100)

2017 Circular plot of SLR migration flows under a 6ft scenario - no adaptation

2017 Estimated SLR neg migration under a 6 ft scenario - no adaptation

2017 Florida, Texas, and Louisiana lead the nation in NFIP coverage

2017 Linking SLR to annual variability in flooding risk

2017 Major metropolitan areas at risk of storm surge

2017 Net change in population under 6ft of SLR - no adaptation

2017 Residential property exposure by coastal region

2018 Elevation of properties in Miami-Date Country

2021 49% of Americans Who Plan to Move In the Next Year Say Natural Disasters Were a Factor

2021 Projected population and property value in coastal areas at risk of inundation

2021 Projected population and property value in coastal areas that could be excluded from adaptation

2100 (2017) 1.9 million homes are at risk of being underwater by 2100 based on six feet of sea level rise

Miami properties

Miami, FL

Multiple costs and benefits for each strategy considered

Number of homes at risk nationally from hurricane storm surge

One view of property loss from coastal erosion in Delaware

Real estate in FL's flood prone areas has slumped in sales

Real estate sales in flood-prone areas have slowed compared to other areas

Regression coefficients for different areas

Several pathways by which CG could manifest

Storm surge risk by state

The range of elevations for Miami-Dade County

Top 15 historical storm surge events in Florida

Top 15 historical storm surrge events in Florida

Underwater homes in Saint Petersburg

Unincorporated properties

Urban, suburban, and rural homes affected (based on 6 feet)

65,000 homes in Florida worth $35 billion are expected to be underwater or impacted daily by high tides in 2040

A lot of people won't even consider buying in flood areas

Banks are shifting mortgages with flood risk off their books and over to organizations like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Big real estate firms are pouring resources into calculating climate risk and its likely effect on property portfolios — everything from increasingly extreme weather to sea-level rise.

Damage to U.S. real estate from extreme storms hit a record high in 2017. Natural disasters, including floods, mudslides and wildfires, cost more than $300 billion in damage, the bulk of it to residential and commercial real estate.

Environmental justice implications of changing buying trends

Impact of rising temperatures on coastal flooding and nearby property

In an effort to avoid risks of climate change-caused defaults on mortgages – especially involving homes facing sea-level rise and increased flooding – banks have been selling off those mortgages.

Metropolitan East Coast faces potential losses up to $250 billion

Pacifica, California: Pacifica has become a story of unplanned, forced retreat and the public got stuck with the bill

Penelas County will be hit the hardest by changes in flood insurance. Whole areas will be devastated

Premiums in one area could go from $1,000 to $10,000; home becomes worthless

Problems with building in an area that’s likely to flood

Recommended mitigation strategies for real estate management

Rhode Island Coastal Resources Management Council (CRMC) has figured out a way to warn people about coastal risk potential without flat-out prohibiting them from buying, financing, or altering those properties

The question that matters, according to researchers, isn’t whether the effects of climate change will start to ripple through the housing market. Rather, it’s how fast those effects will occur and what they will look like.