E - Real Estate Values and SLR
Who ows the risk Florida's residential real estate market?
Jesse Keenan, associate professor at Tulane University: “Conventional mortgages have survived many financial crises, but they may not survive the climate crisis. ... This trend also reflects a systematic financial risk for banks and the U.S. taxpayers who ultimately foot the bill.”
2010 1 Meter of Sea Level Rise on the Gulf Coast
2011 Forecasted impacts under observerd SLR scenario
2011 Forecasted impacts under the accelerated SLR scenario
2014 C/bs were evaluated under current and future (one meter change to CHHA line) scenarios
2014 Flood risk in Seattle based on SLR by 2100, high tide and storm surge
2014 Miami MSL projections of different probabilities
2016 2 Million homes worth $900 billion are at risk if seas rise 6 feet
2016 6 feet of SLR in San Diego, CA
2016 6 feet SLR in Long Beach, CA
2016 A metaphor for the indefensibility of a lot of coastal real estate
2016 Coastal Risk Highlights
2016 How many homes under water with 6 feet of SLR?
2017 6 feet of SLR in Boston
2017 6 feet of SLR in in Seattle
2017 6 feet SLR in Honolulu
2017 6 feet SLR in Jacksonville, FL
2017 6 feet SLR in New York City
2017 6 feet SLR in Tampa, FL
2017 6 feet SLR in Virginia Beach
2017 10 metro areas hit hardest by rising seas (based on 6 feet by 2100)
2017 Circular plot of SLR migration flows under a 6ft scenario - no adaptation
2017 Estimated SLR neg migration under a 6 ft scenario - no adaptation
2017 Florida, Texas, and Louisiana lead the nation in NFIP coverage
2017 Linking SLR to annual variability in flooding risk
2017 Major metropolitan areas at risk of storm surge
2017 Net change in population under 6ft of SLR - no adaptation
2017 Residential property exposure by coastal region
2018 Elevation of properties in Miami-Date Country
2021 49% of Americans Who Plan to Move In the Next Year Say Natural Disasters Were a Factor
2021 Projected population and property value in coastal areas at risk of inundation
2021 Projected population and property value in coastal areas that could be excluded from adaptation
2100 (2017) 1.9 million homes are at risk of being underwater by 2100 based on six feet of sea level rise
Multiple costs and benefits for each strategy considered
Number of homes at risk nationally from hurricane storm surge
One view of property loss from coastal erosion in Delaware
Real estate in FL's flood prone areas has slumped in sales
Real estate sales in flood-prone areas have slowed compared to other areas
Regression coefficients for different areas
Several pathways by which CG could manifest
Storm surge risk by state
The range of elevations for Miami-Dade County
Top 15 historical storm surge events in Florida
Top 15 historical storm surrge events in Florida
Underwater homes in Saint Petersburg
Unincorporated properties
Urban, suburban, and rural homes affected (based on 6 feet)
65,000 homes in Florida worth $35 billion are expected to be underwater or impacted daily by high tides in 2040
A lot of people won't even consider buying in flood areas
Banks are shifting mortgages with flood risk off their books and over to organizations like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Big real estate firms are pouring resources into calculating climate risk and its likely effect on property portfolios — everything from increasingly extreme weather to sea-level rise.
Damage to U.S. real estate from extreme storms hit a record high in 2017. Natural disasters, including floods, mudslides and wildfires, cost more than $300 billion in damage, the bulk of it to residential and commercial real estate.
Environmental justice implications of changing buying trends
Impact of rising temperatures on coastal flooding and nearby property
In an effort to avoid risks of climate change-caused defaults on mortgages – especially involving homes facing sea-level rise and increased flooding – banks have been selling off those mortgages.
Metropolitan East Coast faces potential losses up to $250 billion
Pacifica, California: Pacifica has become a story of unplanned, forced retreat and the public got stuck with the bill
Penelas County will be hit the hardest by changes in flood insurance. Whole areas will be devastated
Premiums in one area could go from $1,000 to $10,000; home becomes worthless
Problems with building in an area that’s likely to flood
Recommended mitigation strategies for real estate management
Rhode Island Coastal Resources Management Council (CRMC) has figured out a way to warn people about coastal risk potential without flat-out prohibiting them from buying, financing, or altering those properties
The question that matters, according to researchers, isn’t whether the effects of climate change will start to ripple through the housing market. Rather, it’s how fast those effects will occur and what they will look like.
I:RealEstateValuesUnderSLR
I:StormSurgeandSeaLevelRise
S - Coastal SLR Adaptation/Resilience
S - Decision-Making Under SLR Uncertainty
S - Risk Assessment for SLR
S - Risk Management for SLR
S - Sea Level Rise Sources - Topical
N - Real Estate Values and Sea Level Rise
N - SLR Sea Level Rise News - Topical
T - Sea Level Rise Networks
T - SLR Sea Level Rise Visualizations
E - Adapting to Sea Level Rise
E - Decision-Making for SLR
E - Legal Implications of SLR
T - SLR Websites, Blogs, FB Home Pages
The last 8,000 years of sea level stability correspond to civilization and infrastruture
Can do the same with this image
0000 -10000 (2016) Long term sea level rise implications of current emissions scenarios
0-2000 (2014) Sea level change over the last 2000 years
3oC - Asian cities that will be worst affected by sea level rise
4oC - The estimated range of sea level rise impacts
200X A closer look at that 10-32 inches
1800-2100 (2017) Revised global SLR scenarios
1800-2100 projected global sea levels - not modelled
1850-2010 (2013) The growing rate of sea level rise
1870-2010 (2009) Sea level rise since 1880
1880-1990 (1996) Historic role of greenhouse gases in SLR
1880-2020 (2017) Australian sea levels rising faster since 1993
1880-2100 (2014) Global SLR to 2100 based on IPCC scenarios
1900-2100 (2012) Global SLR scenarios
1900-2100 (2012) The rate of SLR is also projected to rise
1900-2100 (2016) Scenarios developed for the Third NCA
1950-2100 (2009) Projections of SLR based on AR4 temperature projections
1970-2010 (2009) SLR happening faster than expected
1980-2010 (2013) Projected vs. actual sea level rise
1980-2100 (2012) Understanding the difference of 2oC vs. 4oC for SLR projections
1990-2005 Observed SLR vs. model projections
1990-2200 (1996) GHG forcing in w/m2 underlying SLR estimates
1990-2300 (1995 ) Cumulative contribution of climate change to SLR
1990-2300 (1996) Global temperature change associated with SLR estimates
1990-2300 (2009) Recent SLR projections
2000-2100 (1983) Estimated contribution of variables to total SLR over time
2009 Long-term relationship of temperatures and sea levels
2011 Top 20 cities for exposed population
2011 Top 20 cities for exposure assets
2011 Top 20 cities for highest proportional increase in asset exposure
2013 Comparing 6-month forecasts of 10-year bonds to actual
2013 NOAA_What will adaptation cost
2013 Temperature changes over the last 65 million years
2013 There is a strong correlation between CO2 and sea level
2014 Effects of climate change on property values
2014 Impact of projected climate change on hazard losses
2014 Increase in average annual coastal storm damage due to higher seas in 2030
2014 Increase in average annual coastal storm damage due to higher seas in 2050
2014 Increase in average annual coastal storm damage due to higher seas in 2100
2014 Per capita increase in average annual storm damages due to SLR
2014 Per capita increase in state coastal damages due to SLR alone
2014 Per capita increase in state coastal damages due to SLR and potential hurricane activity change
2014 Probability distribution of annual increase in property damage assuming no change in hurricane activity
2014 Table of MSL and MHHW costs by 2050 and 2100
2015 Historical and projected SLR
2016 # of staff focused on sustainability
2017 It's all about probabilities
2018 Assessing change in real estate loan to value ratios
2018 Connecticut extent of chronic flooding, by year (2018-2100)
2018 Delaware extent of chronic flooding, by year (2018-2100)
2018 New Jersey and New York extents of chronic flooding, by year (2018-2100)
2019 Boston Harbor Islands NRA
2019 Canaveral National Seashore
2019 Cape Cod National Seashore
2019 CoastalDEM versus SRTM by country
2019 Dry Tortugas National Park
2019 Everglades National Park
2019 Fire Island National Seashore
2019 Global populations on land at risk
2019 Global simulated error assessment results
2019 Golden Gate National Recreation Area
2019 Individual ice sheet contributions to SLR for 2100 temperature scenarios
2019 Key West sea level rise risk by 2050
2019 Median and likely range estimates of the ice sheet SLR contributions for different temperature scenarios and different studies
2019 National Mall - Washington
2019 Number of people at risk by country from a sea level rise of 1.8 meters
2019 Padre Island National Seashore
2019 PDFs for both temperature trajectory scenarios for combined ice sheet contributions
2019 Pearl River Delta, China and Bangladesh predictions
2019 Permanent inundation surfaces predicted by CoastalDEM and SRTM given the median sea-level projection
2019 Projected flood risk in Imperial Beach
2019 Projected flood risk in San Francisco
2019 Projected sea-level rise contributions from each ice sheet and combined
2019 Southern Florida legacy model of sea level rise risk by 2050 vs. adjusted CoastalDem map
2019 Southern Vietnam: old vs. new projection for 2050
2019 Total global-mean sea-level rise projections
2019 Wright Brothers National Memorial
2020 Estimated losses due to sea level rise
2020 Historical experience CO2 vs. temp. and SLR
2020 Impact of sea level rise
2020 Percentage of properties at risk of flooding during a major storm - FEMA vs independent researchers
2020 Rising size of single family homes in U.S.
2020 Total home retrofit costs 2010-2025
2021 Committed sea level rise as a function of long-term global temperature increase
2021 Projected sea level rise for 10 most populous coastal cities in the US with SLR of 50cm and 100cm
2022 Alternative sea level rise estimates
2022 Change in sea level compared to 1993-2008 average by year
2022 Contributors to global sea sea level rise (1993-2018)
2022 Possible pathways for future sea level rise
2022 Projections of sea level rise for five emissions scenarios
2022 Rate of minor high-tide flooding and sea level rise
2022 Sea level change between 1993 and 2020
2050-2100 (2013) Estimates of SLR in Maryland
2050-2100 (2019) Total global mean sea-level rise projections
2050-2300 (2017) Probabilistic projections of GMSL by RCP over time
2100 (2012) Estimates of projected sea level rise have varied widely
2100 (2013) Projections of potential sea level rise
2100-2300 (2015) Expert opinion on SLR by 2100 and 2300
2100-2300 (2017) Vulnerable populations based on SLR scenarios
2100-2300 (2019) Probability distributions H and L temperature, 2011 and 2300
12000 (2016) Distribution of sea level rise in 10,000 years based on lower emissions scenario
12000 (2016) Impact on countries and cities of 10,000 year SLR projection
Are green building certificates a proxy for climate resilience?
Barriers to green retrofit technoloy uptake in buildings
Building emissions and zero carbon opportunities
Change in global GDP by 2100
Comparing 6-month GDP forecasts to actual
Comparing 6-month vacancy forecasts to actual
Components of Extreme Still and Total Water Level
Conclusions drawn from climate change risk assessments
Could it more than proportional
Currently observed market impacts of climate change
Do companies carry out climate change risk assessments on their portfolios?
EBITDA under alternative SLR scenarios
Estimated historical SLR per century
Five global scenarios used in the report
Framework for climate risk management
Global temperatures have varied considerably in the past, partially due to major tectonic shifts
Graphic - Sea level rise vulnerability
Graphic - What causes sea-level-change
Historical and Projected Sea Level
How do organizations assess climate risk
How uncertainties relate to each other in terms of natural hazard risk
Impact of climate change on future investment strategies
Impact of climate change on today's investment strategies
In a couple of decades this will be the "normal" for New Orleans
Infographic - 20 Port Cities With Highest Climate Risk
Infographic - Coastal flooding will increase in NYC
Infographic - Drowning - Cities with the 10 highest flood costs by 2050
Infographic - Sea levels will rise in New York City
Infographic - Sites at Risk
Infographic - Understanding CoastAdapt inundation maps
Infographic - What are the options for adapting to sea level rise
Infographic - why should we consider adapting to sea level rise
Infographic - Why is sea level rise important
Infographic The Fight Against Climate Change
Infographic: Sea level rise
Infographic: Sea Level Rise and Global Warming
New Orleans could be an island by 2100
Physical impacts of sea level rise
Portfolio reallocation in light of climate change
Real estate exposure to different risks
Real estate risk assessment for extreme weather events
Recommendations for real estate investors
Record of Sea Level Change Over Last 900,000 Years
Risks faced by real estate companies with inefficient building stocks
Sea Level Rise Impacts Over Time
Sea levels have risen very fast in the past - 65 ft in four centuries some 14,000 years ago
SLR can magnify storm surge magnitude
Socioeconomic impacts of sea level rise
Summary of Min-Max values based on regional adjustments
The impact of potential increased hurricane activity
The primary causes of global SLR
Timeframe for appraising real estate investments
To look at sea level change, need to look over time
Top 20 cities for exposure, 2010 and 2070
Total water levels for selected extreme events in the U.S.
What climate change impacts do you expect to see by region?
When does the 5-year event become the .2 year event
1. Rely on the IPCC (10-32 inches) or National Climate Assessment (1-4 feet)?
2020-2100 (2012) USACE and NOAA SLR Curves
A big difference in thinking about near term (0-20) and longer term SLR
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Headings - Extracted Materials
E - Real Estate Values and SLR
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Sea Level Rise as Real Estate Risk