E - Climate Response Tipping Points

E - Tipping Point Remote Sensing

Are disaster scenarios about tipping points like ‘turning off the Gulf Stream’ and release of methane from the Arctic a cause for concern?

2009 There are many high-consequence outcomes associated with different mitigation scenarios other than tipping points per se

2011 Potential non-linear tipping points

2013 An early assessment of tipping point probabilities

2013 Once you cross a tipping point, it may be very hard to go back

2014 Potential tipping points

2015 Tipping points shouldn’t be thought of in isolation. Potential large scale disruptions could interact and cascade

2016 IAMs are at the core of climate change economic analysis, but have a very hard incorporating tipping points

2017 Climate tipping points potentially within the range of Paris Agreement outcomes

2017 Planet’s response is no longer linear

2017 We can no longer exclude destabilizing the earth system

2018 Earth system feedbacks lead to sinks that absorb about half of anthropogenic emissions, with the remainder contributing to atmospheric increase

2018 Net carbon exchange and photosynthesis anomalies over the satellite record for southern and northern land areas. Photosynthesis does not fully explain variation in carbon exchange.

2018 The fate of fossil fuel over the 1959–2015 CO2 record

2019 Display of climate tipping points

2020 AMOC impacts on Atlantic oceanic temperature projection

2020 AMOC strength and global mean surface air temperature

2020 Arctic sea ice projections and AMOC impacts

2020 Atmosphere temperature and zonal wind projections and AMOC impacts

2020 Cascading potential climate tipping points based on temperature outcomes

2020 Evidence of tipping points is increasing

2020 Four main tipping point characteristics may be identified for early warning signals

2020 Identification of tipping points, showing transition from stable food security conditions to a food crisis resulting from drought in Ethiopia

2020 In this model, the transition of interest is the regime shift from favorable food security conditions into a food crisis, and vice versa.

2020 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

2020 Potential climate change tipping points

2020 Surface temperature and precipitation projections and AMOC impacts

2020 The climate system is now believed to be much more sensitive to temperature change than just 20 years ago.

2021 Cascades of abrupt changes in physical–ecological–societal components of the Earth system

2021 Map of selected atmospheric, oceanographic, ecosystem and societal records with abrupt changes or tipping points in

2021 Timeline of abrupt events

2021 Tipping point examples

2021 Updated climate change tipping point

1oC - may be enough to trigger climate tipping points

3oC - tipping points may get a lot more dangerous

5 - Tipping points

A lot of economic modeling of climate change assumes there is no tipping point

And climate tipping points may be much more likely than we've thought

Better understanding potential tipping points is critical

Climate models have been unable to adequately incorporate tipping points

Permafrost feedbacks have been overlooked by the IPCC

Permafrost is a critical variable that has been generally overlooked

Potential tipping points

Subjective estimate of one "tip": 16% to 2oC 56% for more than 4oC

The Amazon could already be tipping toward a non-forest ecosystem

The existence of multiple uncertain tipping points doubles the optimal carbon tax

Threshold effects can manifest suddenly

Tipping points are the equivalent of driving into a fog without a working speedometer

Tipping points have significant implications for thinking about SCC

With some imagination can include tipping points in the analysis.