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V - Market mechanisms

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2014 CISL_IPCC AR5 - Carbon crossroads and the pathway to two degrees - Infographic

1.5oC - 2oC Comparing the implications

2007 Stabilizing concentrations requires at least 30 GTs of reductions

2009 And requires total decarbonization by 2035-45

2009 Annex 1 and non Annex 1 pathways for 2 degrees

2009 Chance of exceeding 2 degrees high even with extreme assumptions

2009 Forestry emissions to 2100

2009 Non-CO2 emissions to 2100

2010 Emissions abatement pathways and economics

2011 Emissions trajectories compatible (50% ) with 2 degree limit

2011 Energy sector employment under 2% investment initiatve

2011 Giving developing countries until 2030 to peak suggests zero industrialized emissions

2011 Overview of the pathways considered for meeting a 2 degree target

2011 The emissions gap to 2020 for a 2 degree target

2011 The renewable energy challenge is tougher than it looks

2011 There's no way that energy efficiency gets us there

2011 Very good chance we're already committed to >2 degrees C

2011 What it means for energy is 90%+ by 2030!

2011 What would the supply curve look like to get to 450 ppm

2012 Optimal energy mix for 2 degree target from the IAM

2012 To stay below 2oC we'd have to throw in the kitchen sink

2013 By 2030 Non-Annex 1 emissions will by themselves exceed the 2oC pathway

2013 The 2oC carbon budget

2013 The 2oC carbon budget broken down by generation

2013 We can only burn 30% of proven reserves on 2oC pathway - massive stranded investments

2014 BSR will apply stabilization wedge work across 8 business sectors

2014 Forecasted Paris targets delay exhaustion of the target by some years5

2014 Nuclear only energy land area 2050

2014 Renewables only energy land area 2050

2014 The current pathway to two degrees

2014 The emissions gap

2014 What would it take in terms of reduced intensity to meet the 2 degree target in E7 countries

2014 What would it take in terms of reduced intensity to meet the 2 degree target in G7 countries

2015 Cumulative emissions vs. the 2 degree budget

2015 The climate security pyramid

2015 The scale of the needed capital shift

2016 2oC scenarios in AR5 with and without CCS

2016 Alternative 2 Degree pathways

2016 Alternative pathways of physical vs. transitions risks

2016 Alternative warming paths

2016 Carbon Tracker carbon budget to 2050

2016 Emissions limits required to achieve temperature targets

2016 Estimated emissions under various post-COP21 scenarios

2016 Probability of stabilizing temperatures vs. net zero timeline

2017 2oC Pathway scenarios

2017 Enacted policies vs. target emissions

2017 Having emissions peak in 2020 is a necessity for keeping temperatures "well below 2 degrees"

2017 Making the Paris goals a reality

2017 Negative emissions required for 2oC scenario

2017 NET requirements as part of 2oC scenario

2017 To do that we need massive CCS, and the existing carbon sinks

2017 To do that we need to be at net zero by 2050

2017 To do that we need to peak emissions by 2020

2017 Various levels of BCCS required under different IAMs for 2 degree target

2017 We need a "carbon law" like Moore's law - to reduce emissions by 50% per decade

2017 We're seeing some indication of the shift towards avoiding global risks, and seizing opportunities

2017 Where we are vs. where we need to be on emissions

2018 Oil demand under benchmark and 2oC Scenarios

Comparing the Paris commitments

Is there "safe" global warming?

Temperature forecast of 2.3 degrees by 2100 assumes net zero CO2 before or by end of century

Infographic - Carbon Pricing in Canada

E - Business Carbon Pricing Advocacy

E - Cap and Dividend

E - Cap and Trade Performance

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E - Carbon Pricing in Practice

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E - Efficient Optimal Carbon Pricing

E - Evaluating Carbon Pricing

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E - Revenue Neutral Carbon Tax

E - SCC as Carbon Price

E - Sectoral Carbon Pricing and Pathways

E - Shadow Pricing

2012 The study concluded that policy and technology change in risk, but impacts almost irrelevant

2015 The 2oC Framework

2015 The 2oC portfolio approach

2015 Translating a 2oC scenario into a 2oC benchmark - 12

2016 Carbon price impact stress-testing approach

2016 Comparison of relevant signposts within physical climate scenarios

2016 Horizontal vs. vertical perspective on carbon pricing

2016 Horizontal vs. vertical perspective on carbon pricing

2016 Impact of policy distortions on apparent abatement cost

2016 Impact of policy distortions on apparent abatement cost

2016 Impact of WAIS collapse by 2200 modest in terms of suggested SCC

2016 Impact of WAIS collapse by 2200 modest in terms of suggested SCC

2016 Linking real assets to financial portfolios (9)

2016 Low carbon impact smart beta portfolio

2016 Mapping GHG productivity along value chains

2016 Mapping GHG productivity along value chains

2016 Objectives of the report

2016 Oil production costs vary widely

2016 Oil production costs vary widely

2016 Overview of carbon pricing by the numbers

2016 Overview of carbon pricing by the numbers

2016 Position of companies on introducing carbon pricing

2016 Position of companies on introducing carbon pricing

2016 Potential price impact of global carbon price after revenue recycling

2016 Prices in existing carbon pricing initiatives

2016 Relative sector impact on PBT by 2020

2016 Risks are long-term, investment focus short-term

2016 Testing 2D alignment for real assets

2016 Testing the alignment of real assets with a 2D target (4)

2016 There is no demand for long-term analysis (19)

2016 Transition scenarios - IEA outlook to 2040

2016 Voluntary vs. mandatory ways to respond to scenario challenges

2017 10 year and 35 year results

2017 35 year sensitivity

2017 Carbon price corridor for the power sector

2017 Carbon pricing could cover costs of universal access to basic services

2017 Carbon revenue recycling can benefit poor

2017 Carbon revenues could significantly expand social assistance

2017 Equity holds of financial actors, top 15 funds, and top 15 banks

2017 First and second round bank equity losses

2017 Heat maps - sensitivity of asset classes to climate risk factors

2017 OPTrust TRIP Expsoures

2017 Portfolio impacts at 10 years

2017 Portfolio impacts at 10 years

2017 Portfolio impacts at 10 years

2017 Reclassified NACE sectors to climate-policy-relevant sectors

2017 Risk factors illustrated relatively by scenario

2017 Sensitivity to TRIP risk factors by OPTrust greatest over short term

2018 Recent trends in carbon pricing

2018 The carbon pricing gap for OECD and G20 Countries

2021 Calculated components of the price of carbon facing Norwegian motorists as of 2019

2021 IPR carbon price policy forecast

2021 Voluntary carbon credit prices and demand 2019 by project type

2021 Voluntary carbon credit prices and demand 2019 by vintage

Australian Carbon Prices and Food Prices

Calculated "marginal" benefit cost ratio for 2011

Carbon Pricing by Country

Carbon Pricing Coverage by Country

Cheap energy is important for less poverty and better health

Coal keeps electricity prices down

Forward looking benefit cost ratios

GDP will continue to rise rapidly

Impact of Carbon Pricing

One can project the "CO2 Yield for Crops in the Future

Revised 2013 Social Cost of CO2, 2010-2050 ($2007)

Subtracting out benefits of energy from non-fossil fuel sources

The benefit cost ratio for CO2 is huge

The social cost of carbon emissions

As governments take real action, carbon prices could rise

Average voluntary market prices should rise to $20-50/tCO2e by 2030

Talk of carbon pricing evokes the bitter memory of shock therapy in eastern Europe and the developing world. BlackRock’s backstop idea is the logic of the 2008 bank bailouts expanded to the global level – socialise the risks, privatise the profits.

Taylor: 90% of people advocate a modest tax with a strict escalator

Taylor: If liberals are right that mitigation is cheap, then emissions reductions from a carbon tax should be huge

Taylor: Ironically, conservatives have the best answer to climate change - the power of markets and the invisible hand

Taylor: There is NOTHING that will get the job done besides a real price on carbon - regulation can't get there

The US and the EU seem less preoccupied with grand schemes of carbon pricing and blended finance, than with pushing a case-by-case approach

Works out ~$300/ton in 2050

Works out to ~$80/ton in 2030

Carbon Pricing for Paris Agreement

Carbon Pricing in Brief

Carbon Pricing Intro

Carbon Pricing Rules of Thumb

Implicit Carbon Pricing

Scoping Out the Topic of Carbon Pricing

Summing Up the Options for Carbon Pricing

E - Carbon Price Forecasts

E - Electric Sector Carbon Price Forecasts

E - Sensitivity of Emissions to Carbon Prices

2014 Using a realistic payment probability shows the significant different between expected carbon price and expected carbon payment

2015 Implications of a $100/ton carbon price

2015 Policy domains for carbon pricing: MAC shows different opportunities at inexpensive, medium, and high-cost

2015 Pricing success trajectory: sailing to the new low carbon world

2015 What are CEOs and Boards most interested in

2016 Carbon futures price under EU ETS 2008-14

2016 Carbon price scenarios for 2020 and 2025

2016 Comparing Synapse's 2016 and 2015 price forecasts

2016 EIA pessimistic forecast of CO2 emissions reductions from a carbon price

2016 Estimates of CPP CO2 costs in 2030 - various studies

2021 EU emissions reduction targets and EU ETS cap

2021 Revenue potential from carbon price reform

Carbon price curves to 2095

How the Corridors can be used

Prices Based on Atmospheric Stabilization

Prices Based on Political Reality

Prices Based on Stalemate

Taskforce on Scaling the Voluntary Carbon Markets: The value of the VCM market is now more than $1 billion and forecast to increase fifteen-fold by 2030.

The existence of multiple uncertain tipping points doubles the optimal carbon tax