The Climate Web | E - IAM Uncertainties and Forecasts

E - IAM Uncertainties and Forecasts

2017 Economic performance under the 5 scenarios

2017 Models (IAMs) involved in the development of SSPs quantifications

2021 Distribution of global consumption per capital in 2100 w and w/o tipping points

2021 The impact of including tipping points on estimated SCC

2022 Economic damages based on alternative damage functions

Almost half of "economically optimal" outcomes are below 2 degrees

Distribution of global consumption per capital in 2050 w and w/o tipping points

Distribution of the % change in SCC due to tipping points

IAMs and tipping points included in the study

IAMs generate very different estimates of damage for identical scenarios

Incorporation of BECCS into IAMs is only a thought experiment today

Monte Carlo integration of all of the changed variables results in a huge change to DICE results

A lot of economic modeling of climate change assumes there is no tipping point

Abstract

An optimistic scenario may not only be a possibility, but a probability

Analytical Framework

Calculate an expected SCC increase of 43% due to tipping points

Commonly used scenarios such as the NGFS scenarios significantly underestimate climate damages

Degrees of Risk documented that IAMs do not deserve to be seen as objective

Dietz has done nothing to rationalize economic and climate science thinking

Global consumption change as a function of temperature

Global targets are based on a guardrail approach, rather than economic analysis

IAMs have been used to suggest that 3.5 degrees may be economically efficient

IAMs implicitly suggest that setting the right carbon price (and often a low price) is all that’s needed to tackle climate change

IAMs suffer from a number of fundamental falws

IAMs ultimately fail to provide useful guidance on what needs to be done, or how to do it

Improving IAMs isn’t likely to improve the situation

In the face of deep uncertainties regarding climate change, IAMs can’t work

It is likely that the simplistic models of economists simply are not up to the task

It made sense in early years for conventional economic tools to be applied to climate change

Most policy and economic analysis relies on IAMs

Potentially catastrophic risks are assumed away in IAMs

The assertion that 6oC of warming would result in a 1.4% change in per capital global consumption is simply inconceivable

Three sets of concerns explored in the paper

Tipping points are commonly ignored or treated very simply in policy advice

We cannot expect to act on climate change only through carbon pricing, or even just a few policy instruments

We need to utilize a range of tools and model types

Climate Change Officers

Economics TOC

E - Economic Modeling

I:IAMsIntegratedAssessmentModels (Deep Dive)

S - Adaptation Economics

S - Adaptation Frame

S - Adapting to Climate Change Under Uncertainty

S - Atmospheric Trust Litigation

S - Bounding Global SLR

S - Business Adaptation/Resilience

S - Business Decision-Making with Climate Uncertainty

S - Carbon Pricing Sources

S - CCS CCUS

S - CCS Critiques

S - CCS Risks

S - CCS Technologies

S - Climate Change Fingerprint to Date

S - Climate Change Tipping Points

S - Climate Emergency Sources

S - Climate Ethics Morals Religion

S - Climate Modeling

S - Climate Risk (Societal)

S - Climate Uncertainties Unknowns

S - CO2 Utilization

S - Collective Action

S - Cost-Benefit Analysis

S - Economic Futures

S - Economic Modeling

S - Economics Forecasting

S - Ecosystem Restoration

S - Environmental and Climate Storytelling

S - Environmental Migrants

S - Evaluating Business Responses

S - Evaluating Voluntary Measures

S - Fire Impacts

S - Forestry Emissions and Mitigation

S - Green Growth

S - Green Growth Investment Barriers

S - Green New Deal

S - IAMs Integrated Assessment Models

S - Impact Attribution

S - Impact Modeling

S - Limits to Growth

S - Mitigation Economics

S - Modeling Extreme Events

S - Natural Capital

S - Negative Emissions

S - Observed vs. Modeled Impacts

S - Politics and Policy

S - Public Perceptions of CCS

S - SCC Social Cost of Carbon

S - Science Top Level

S - Systemic Risk

S - Wicked Problems

N - Alternative Economic Models

N - Business and Deforestation

N - Carbon Dioxide Removal - CDR

N - Carbon Negative

N - Carbon Pricing News - Topical

N - CCS Carbon Capture and Storage

N - CCS Critiques

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N - CCS Technologies

N - CCUS CO2 Utilization

N - Climate Change Fingerprint

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N - Green New Deal

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2013 Comparing 6-month forecasts of 10-year bonds to actual

2022 USA Temperature and GSP per capita deviations

Comparing 6-month GDP forecasts to actual

Comparing 6-month vacancy forecasts to actual

E - Adaptation Economics

G - Adaptation Economics

Headings - Extracted Materials

E - IAM Uncertainties and Forecasts

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