1. Where is the heat going?

Coastal flooding will increase in NYC

Infographic - 2015 Temperature Anomaly

Infographic - Risks at 2, 3, 4 Degrees

Infographic - Snapshot of a Warming World

I:1.5vs2.0Degrees (HowCanIVisualize?)

I:BoundingPolicyOutcomes

T - Visualizing Future Impacts

E - Changing Return Periods

E - Communicating shifting extremes

E - Exceedance Curves

E - Fingerprint - Arctic Ice

E - Fingerprint - Fire Regimes

E - Fingerprint - Flooding

E - Fingerprint - Heat Extremes

E - Forecasted Probabilities

E - Impact Attribution

E - Impacts by Degree

E - Manifestations of climate risk

E - Shifting Extremes

2016 Global monthly temperature anomalies 2015-2016

2011/1 Global Surface Temperature Anomalies

Small average changes in temperature can hide dramatic changes at extremes

2016/11 What will the world actually look like at 1.5°C of warming?

2018/10 Interactive: The impacts of climate change at 1.5C, 2C and beyond

Climate Central - Threatened U.S. Cities by Decade

2014 Global Warming Projections, 2 degrees warmer (from NG 2008)

2015 A climate change Christmas: the hottest deals of 2056 – video

2015 Climate Change: What Happens If The World Warms Up By 2°C?

2015 Earth Under Water in 2040 HD Documentary 2015

1oC - Arctic sea ice volume to 2019

1oC - Average global temperature change to 2020

1oC - Socioeconomic impacts of climate change already manifesting

3oC - Asian cities that will be worst affected by sea level rise

200X 800,000 year temperature CO2 record - NAS Public

200X Exposure is rising

1500-2010 (2012) European summer temperatures 1500-2010

1500-2010 (2012) Frequency of extreme European summers

1900-2010 (2011) Anomalies are clearly trending towards hot and very hot temperatures

1900-2010 (2011) U.S. temperature anomalies not nearly as clear as other parts of the world

1900-2100 (2008) Change in daily heavy precipitation events, with uncertainty

1900-2100 (2008) Increase in % of warm nights for North America, with uncertainty

1900-2100 (2010) Changes in permafrost coverage to 2100

1900-2100 (2012) Estimated ocean acidification under alternative emissions scenarios

1920-2100 (2017) A massive increase in "nuisance flooding" around the U.S.

1950-2010 (2011) One can see a systematic warming signal in a number of regions

1950-2010 (2011) The extreme heat tail of anomalies has shifted by 1 SD over 3 decades

1950-2010 (2011) We can track how annual anomalies diverge in terms of SDs from the baseline

1950-2011 (2011) The fraction of land area with very high extremes is increasing

1950-2011 (2012) Temperature anomaly distributions during the summer for the U.S.

1950-2011 (2013) It's not the change in global average temperature that really matters, it's the tails of the probability curve

1950-2015 (2016) North and Southern hemisphere temperature anomaly shifts

1950-2015 (2016) Regional shifts in temperature anomalies - Africa, Middle East, SE Asia

1950-2015 (2016) Regional shifts in temperature anomalies - U.S., Europe, China, India

1955-2007 (2011) We can track how surface temperatures are changing over time

1955-2011 (2011) The proportion of surface area displaying >3 SDs is growing significantly

1975-2015 Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover is decreasing

1980-2040 (2009) Decreasing habitat for coldwater fish

1980-2100 (2014) North Hemisphere near-surface permafrost area to 2100

1980-2100 (2014) Northern Hemisphere snow cover change to 2100

1980-2100 (2014) Number of days over 95o (F) RCP 8.5 Median and 1 in 20 chance

1980-2100 (2015) Change in after number of days over 95 degrees (F) Median and 1 in 20 chance estimates

1990-2005 Observed SLR vs. model projections

2000-2013 (2016) Observed change in U.S. precipitation patterns

2000-2050 (2012) Annual probability of loss due to hurricanes for Miami-Dade Region

2000-2050 (2012) Expected value of hurricane damages to Miami-Dade

2000-2050 (2012) Expected value of hurricane damanges to Miami-Dade

2000-2050 (2012) Frequency of Cat 4-5 hurricanes expected to increase 80% by 2050, while Cat 1-3 decline 38%

2000-2050 (2012) Return frequency declining for major hurricanes

2000-2060 (2016) Change in coastal population exposure by country

2003 The salinity of oceans is decreasing

2007 Cooling degree days in the U.S.

2007 Heating degree days in the U.S.

2008 And it's worse than we anticipated

2009 Acreage burned is increasing

2009 Area of Greenland subject to melting each year

2009 Choosing the right strategy in probability space

2009 Climate change modeling has gotten a lot better

2009 Discharge of Greenland ice streams is accelerating

2009 Picture of surface melt on Greenland

2009 Risk of temperature directly related to concentrations, and varies widely over time

2009 Snapshot of ocean acidification

2009 Water stress - the ratio between withdrawal and availability - 2000

2009 We're losing a lot of ice mass in Greenland and Antarctica

2010 Annualized U.S. loss trend - water impacts

2010 High value sector water availability - municipalities, industry, energy

2010 Hydroelectric water availability

2010 In probability distributions, modes and means and uncertainty are important

2010 Mining water availability

2010 Normalized state by state water availability in 2050

2010 rainfall anomaly against future probability distributions

2010 Second order uncertainty is the uncertainty in the uncertainty

2010 The Vostok Ice Cores

2011 10 Warmest Years on Record

2011 Anticipated changes in stream-flow in 2050

2011 In mountain glaciers

2011 Observed sea level rise over last 12 years

2011 Very good chance we're already committed to >2 degrees C

2011 Was a Year of Weather and Climate Extremes

2011 Why are we confident that observed warming is anthropogenic?

2011 Why are we confident that observed warming is anthropogenic? (2)

2012 - 2014 precipitation anomalies in Western U.S. (no long-term trend)

2012 10-fold increase in extreme heat events

2012 Extreme events are growing in probability faster than projected by the models

2012 In parts of East Africa there has been a substantial decrease in normal rainy seasons

2012 Model ensembles show shifts towards warmer and drier conditions from 1960's to present

2012 Probabilistic Forecasts to 2100 based on new Representative Concentration Pathways

2012 Ratio of high to low records in the U.S. 1950's to 2000's

2012 Return periods have changed

2012 Showing North American Detail

2012 Significant weather related losses of 2011

2012 The probabilty of warm winters in UK is 60 times more likely

2012 There's huge uncertainty about really long-term outcomes

2012 Western Pacific temperatures have been increasing

2013 Civilizations have evolved within a very narrow temperature band for 10,000 years

2013 Extreme precipitation in the U.S. is increasing

2013 Human civilization has evolved in an unusually stable climatic period

2013 Probability of catastrophe by treatment

2013 Since 1895, annual average air temperatures in CA have increased about 1.5oF

2013 Statewide average temperature trends mask major differences within the state

2013 temperatures against future probability distribution

2013 We have seen sharp shifts in CO2 emissions before

2014 - Nightime temperature increases

2014 1700 Years of Global Temperature Change from Proxy Data

2014 Average summer temperatures across the U.S.

2014 Average winter temperatures

2014 Coldest Nights

2014 Earth’s Surface Temperature

2014 Fires

2014 Global temperature projections different and timelines

2014 Global temperature vs. CO2

2014 Hottest Days

2014 Long-term warming and short-term variations

2014 Mountain Glaciers

2014 Number of extreme cold days

2014 Ocean Heat Content

2014 Percentage of west in summer drought

2014 precipitation anomalies in Europe and South America

2014 Precipitation

2014 Projected changes in frost-free season length by scenario

2014 Regional warming/cooling 1901 - 1950

2014 Regional warming/cooling 1901 - 1961

2014 Regional warming/cooling 1901 - 1971

2014 Regional warming/cooling 1901 - 1981

2014 Regional warming/cooling 1901 - 1991

2014 Regional warming/cooling 1901 - 2000

2014 Regional warming/cooling 1901 - 2009

2014 River Outflow

2014 Sea Level

2014 Soil Moisture

2014 Tornado Count for U.S.

2014 U.S. acres burned 1980 - 2013

2014 U.S. flooding has changed

2015 1,000 years of change

2015 Crop Moisture Stress Index (CMSI)

2015 Global probability of exceeding 99th extremes with temperature increase

2015 Probability of extreme precipitation events under warming

2015 Record high temperatures

2015 Temperature increase

2015 The shock scenario

2015 The Waggonwaybreen glacier 1900 - 2015

2015 Timescales of climate processes and inclusion of feedbacks in climate models

2016 All 10 indicators of climate change are "positive"

2016 Alternative warming paths

2016 Annual area burned in the U.S. 1984 - 2012

2016 Annual mean surface temperature anomaly

2016 Billion-dollar weather events 1980 2015

2016 Changing likelihood of extreme events

2016 Climate anomalies of 2015

2016 Comparison of El Nino strength and temperature trend

2016 Decadal mean surface temperature anomaly

2016 Emissions limits required to achieve temperature targets

2016 Global surface temperature, annual and running mean

2016 Global temperature anomalies vs. 20th century average

2016 ocean temperature anomaly against future probability distribution

2016 Potential temperature increase associated with consuming proven fossil fuels

2016 Temperature anomalies by latitude

2017/7 Alarming New Animation Shows The Months Are Indeed Getting Warmer

2017 Changing Cold Hardiness zones in Oregon to 2050

2017 Components of sea level rise

2017 Forecasting OR's winter temperature change

2017 It's all about probabilities

2017 Land and ocean temperature percentiles

2017 Latitudinal risk of deadly climate

2017 Oceans absorbing heat

2017 Sea surface temperature anomaly 1961-1990

2017 Temperature anomalies over land and ocean 1950 - 2017

2017 The ice core data is key because it tracks the development of humans

2017 The IPCC scenarios for temperature change

2017 The last 20,000 years

2019 A cumulative distribution function (CDF) transforms a probability distribution into an exceedance curve from 0 to 100%. A complementary CDF (CCDF) does the reverse, from 100% to 0%

2019 Average global temperature 1850-2019

2019 Average global temperatures (by month) 1850 - 2019

2019 How did daily U.S. temperatures devitate from the historical average?

2019 How much have maximum and minimum temperatures already changed?

2019 How much individual countries have warmed

2019 Number of Extreme Heat Days in Australia

2019 The temperature history of individual countries in stripes

2020 2019 was Alaska's warmest year on record

2020 2019 Was 2nd Warmest Year on Record