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E - Changing Probability Distributions

E - Changing Return Periods

E - Communicating shifting extremes

E - Exceedance Curves

E - Forecasted Probabilities

Small average changes in temperature can hide dramatic changes at extremes

1oC - Socioeconomic impacts of climate change already manifesting

1900-2010 (2011) Anomalies are clearly trending towards hot and very hot temperatures

1900-2010 (2011) U.S. temperature anomalies not nearly as clear as other parts of the world

1950-2010 (2011) Fraction of surface area that's cold or hot shifting significantly

1950-2010 (2011) One can see a systematic warming signal in a number of regions

1950-2010 (2011) The extreme heat tail of anomalies has shifted by 1 SD over 3 decades

1950-2010 (2011) We can track how annual anomalies diverge in terms of SDs from the baseline

1950-2011 (2011) The fraction of land area with very high extremes is increasing

1955-2007 (2011) We can track how surface temperatures are changing over time

1955-2011 (2011) The proportion of surface area displaying >3 SDs is growing significantly

2009 Choosing the right strategy in probability space

2009 Risk of temperature directly related to concentrations, and varies widely over time

2010 In probability distributions, modes and means and uncertainty are important

2010 rainfall anomaly against future probability distributions

2012 Extreme events are growing in probability faster than projected by the models

2012 Ratio of high to low records in the U.S. 1950's to 2000's

2013 Probability of catastrophe by treatment

2013 temperatures against future probability distribution

2015 The shock scenario

2016 Annual mean surface temperature anomaly

2016 Changing likelihood of extreme events

2016 Comparison of El Nino strength and temperature trend

2016 Decadal mean surface temperature anomaly

2016 Global surface temperature, annual and running mean

2016 ocean temperature anomaly against future probability distribution

2017 It's all about probabilities

2019 A cumulative distribution function (CDF) transforms a probability distribution into an exceedance curve from 0 to 100%. A complementary CDF (CCDF) does the reverse, from 100% to 0%

2030-2050 (2020) Risk of >15% global yield failure increases 2x and 5x

2040 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge

2040 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA

2050 (2020) Economic impact of extreme flood could be 5-10 times greater than today

2060 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge

2060 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA

2080 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge

2080 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA

2100 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge

2100 (2013) Median Projected Change in Flood Hazard Parameter

2100 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA for 2100

2100 (2013) Monte Carlo Distribution for 1% Annual Flood Discharge change

Abnormal markets - stock exchange not normally distributed

Attribution of changing water scarcity to climate and population

b. By increasing variability with the existing mean

Beta distribution

Brownian motion and stock prices - normal distributions

CCDF complementary cumulative probability function

Change in exceedance probability for normally distributed data

Change in risk of occurrence due to a trend in the mean

Changing global water scarcity risk levels

Changing likelihood of Australian extreme events

Changing likelihood of flooding

Changing temperature probabilities in Colorado River Basin

Conceptual diagram of shifting probabilities

Does climate fit into normal distribution? Evidence that it does not

Effect of mitigation on global emergence in drivers of ecosystem stress

End-century project flow reductions Colorado River Basin

Expected extremes based on linear change in SD

Future warming projections constrasting model vs. paleo estimates

Gamma distribution

Geographic variation in attribution variables

Increase in probability of extremes

It's a Matter of Risk and Probabiliy

Lognormal distribution

Mapped Amplification Factors

Mapping flood levels

Mid-century projected flow reductions Colorado River Basin

Moscow July Anomalies

Normal/Gaussian distribution

Northwest Atlantic cod harvest

Power law = better fit for stock extremes

Probability distribution with varying uncertainty around the same mean

Probability distribution with varying uncertainty around the same mode

Reconstructed global mean temperatures

Redrawing this figure using a ratio scale

Regional variation in water scarcity

Responding to fire risks: unlikely but we buy fire insurance

SAT Surface Air Temperature

Sensitivity of global SAT to radiative forcing anomalies

Shifting distribution of temperature anomalies in the Northern hemisphere, winter and summer

SST Sea Surface Temperature

Stock market performance on a ratio scale

Storylines used for RCPs and SSPs

The "tails" of normal and fat-tailed distribution

The 2003 European heat wave against the normal distribution

The distribution of outcomes of rolling 10 dice at once

The distribution of outcomes of rolling two dice

The more dice, the closer you get to a "normal" distribution

The normal probability curve

Three possible outcomes in terms of probability shifts

understanding shifts in extremes due to climate change

Variations in severity of water scarcity

Weibull distribution

Why uncertainty increases risk

2020-2050 (2020) Increase in long tail risk of hurricane damages in Florida

And climate tipping points may be much more likely than we've thought

And there's a clear analogy to abrupt climate change

Precautionary principle: making decisions without probabilities sensible, but don't take to extremes

What causes extreme events in nature and in finance

E - Climate Change Fingerprint

Infographic - 2015 Temperature Anomaly

E - Changing Return Periods

E - Fingerprint - Arctic Ice

E - Fingerprint - Fire Regimes

E - Fingerprint - Flooding

E - Fingerprint - Heat Extremes

E - Impact Attribution

E - Manifestations of climate risk

E - Shifting Extremes

1oC - Arctic sea ice volume to 2019

1oC - Average global temperature change to 2020

1oC - Socioeconomic impacts of climate change already manifesting

1900-2010 (2011) Anomalies are clearly trending towards hot and very hot temperatures

1900-2100 (2008) Change in daily heavy precipitation events, with uncertainty

1950-2010 (2011) Fraction of surface area that's cold or hot shifting significantly

1950-2010 (2011) One can see a systematic warming signal in a number of regions

1950-2010 (2011) We can track how annual anomalies diverge in terms of SDs from the baseline

1950-2011 (2011) The fraction of land area with very high extremes is increasing

1955-2007 (2011) We can track how surface temperatures are changing over time

1955-2011 (2011) The proportion of surface area displaying >3 SDs is growing significantly

1975-2015 Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover is decreasing

1990-2005 Observed SLR vs. model projections

2003 The salinity of oceans is decreasing

2007 Cooling degree days in the U.S.

2007 Heating degree days in the U.S.

2008 And it's worse than we anticipated

2009 Acreage burned is increasing

2009 Area of Greenland subject to melting each year

2009 Discharge of Greenland ice streams is accelerating

2009 Picture of surface melt on Greenland

2009 Snapshot of ocean acidification

2009 Water stress - the ratio between withdrawal and availability - 2000

2009 We're losing a lot of ice mass in Greenland and Antarctica

2011 10 Warmest Years on Record

2011 In mountain glaciers

2011 Observed sea level rise over last 12 years

2011 Was a Year of Weather and Climate Extremes

2011 Why are we confident that observed warming is anthropogenic?

2011 Why are we confident that observed warming is anthropogenic? (2)

2012 - 2014 precipitation anomalies in Western U.S. (no long-term trend)

2012 10-fold increase in extreme heat events

2012 Extreme events are growing in probability faster than projected by the models

2012 In parts of East Africa there has been a substantial decrease in normal rainy seasons

2012 Model ensembles show shifts towards warmer and drier conditions from 1960's to present

2012 Return periods have changed

2012 Significant weather related losses of 2011

2012 The probabilty of warm winters in UK is 60 times more likely

2012 Western Pacific temperatures have been increasing

2013 Extreme precipitation in the U.S. is increasing

2013 Since 1895, annual average air temperatures in CA have increased about 1.5oF

2013 Statewide average temperature trends mask major differences within the state

2014 - Nightime temperature increases

2014 Coldest Nights

2014 Earth’s Surface Temperature

2014 Fires

2014 Global temperature vs. CO2

2014 Hottest Days

2014 Long-term warming and short-term variations

2014 Mountain Glaciers

2014 Ocean Heat Content

2014 Percentage of west in summer drought

2014 precipitation anomalies in Europe and South America

2014 Precipitation

2014 River Outflow

2014 Sea Level

2014 Soil Moisture

2014 Tornado Count for U.S.

2014 U.S. acres burned 1980 - 2013

2014 U.S. flooding has changed

2015 1,000 years of change

2015 Crop Moisture Stress Index (CMSI)

2015 Record high temperatures

2015 Temperature increase

2015 The Waggonwaybreen glacier 1900 - 2015

2016 All 10 indicators of climate change are "positive"

2016 Annual area burned in the U.S. 1984 - 2012

2016 Billion-dollar weather events 1980 2015

2016 Climate anomalies of 2015

2016 Global temperature anomalies vs. 20th century average

2017 Changing Cold Hardiness zones in Oregon to 2050

2017 Components of sea level rise

2017 Land and ocean temperature percentiles

2017 Oceans absorbing heat

2019 How did daily U.S. temperatures devitate from the historical average?

2019 How much have maximum and minimum temperatures already changed?

2019 Number of Extreme Heat Days in Australia

2050 (2014) Planting zone changes over time

Accelerating extreme heat on land

Alaskan Fires up

And rising trends in loss events

Annual area burned by wildfire is increasing rapidly

Annual number of large wildfires vs. average temperatures in the Western U.S.

Antarctic Ice Trends

Arctic Ice - Record Low Maximum

Arctic sea ice is disappearing faster than expected

Arctic Sea Ice • Climate Change

Arctic Sea Ice Thinning: Winter

Arctic temperature change

Areas burned up dramatically

Australian records

Average July High temperatures

BAMS 2014 State of the Climate

Billion dollar weather disasters

Billion Dollar Weather Disasters 1980-2010 economic damage caused by weather vulnerability

billion-dollar weather disasters in 2014 in the US

California

California Palmer Drought Severity Index over time

Carbon Dioxide • Climate Change

Catastrophe losses by cause in U.S. 1994 - 2013

Change in cool/warm days and nights since 1960

Changes in # of days with unusually warm daily low temp

Changes in daily low and high temperatures in N America

Changes in daily temperature range - Mexico

Changes in U.S. frost-free season length

Changing forest fires

Changing ocean acidification

Charting a large number of ECVs

CO2 and Temp since 1880

Comparing 1951-1980 and 2005 - to 2015

Correlation of disease outbreaks with El Nino

Costliest natural catastrophes since 1950

Current Impacts - Ecosystems

Current Impacts - Extreme weather events and weather losses

Current Impacts - Human health

Dana Glacier

Days Above 95 degrees by 2100

Dec 7 to Dec 20 precipitation anomalies in Western U.S.

Decadal mean temperatures

Decadal near surface global average temperature anomaly

Decline in arctic sea ice extent

Decreases in number of frost days per year

Degree of understanding of climate influence for key impacts in North America

Disaster relief costs in the U.S. are increasing

Drought and drought-related costs in the U.S. are increasing

During the 20th century we've seen a significant increase in drought severity

Early efforts looking for the climate signal

Earth's temperature doesn't correlate to sun

Economic losses from natural catastrophes

El Niño • Climate Change

Extreme Heat • Climate Change

Extreme weather bell curve

Extreme weather in 2013

Extreme weather metrics

Fall Temperature Trends

Figure SPM.2a

Figure SPM.4a

Forecasted decrease in Sierra Nevada snow pack

Frost-free season is getting longer

Future climate shift

Glacier mass balance

Glacier mass changes in California

Glacier retreat

Global average temperature

Global flood catastrophes have tripled

Global Surface Temp Record - NAS Public

Global Temperature • Climate Change

Goddard Glacier

Google search for "Pollen" are on the rise

Graphic - Mountain GlacierThinning

Graphics - NASA Global Maps Timeseries across multiple variables

Heavy Downpours Increasing

Higher temperatures will increase demand

Historic precipitation trend is upward

How we know climate change is happening

Hurricane counts - Atlantic 1851-2006

Hurricane Power North Atlantic

Hurricanes may get stronger

Hurricans acting differently in North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific

Ice cover declining in the Great Lakes

Ice cover on Lake Mendota in Wisconsin

Ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica

Images of Change - Hundreds of photos showing all kinds of relevant change

In 2011 arctic ice extent continued to fall

In arctic ice

In Greenland

Increase in Cooling and Heating Demand Days

Increases in heavy rainfall over 90 days

Increases in intense precipitation - N America

Increases in wave heights

Increasing tree mortality in the Sierra Nevada

Indicators of climate change abound

Indicators of climate change in California

Indicators of warming from multiple datasets

Intense precipitation rises most in the NE

Interactive map of extreme weather and climate events of 2013

IPCC has looked at likelihood of different kinds of extreme events

January 2016 temperatures vs. 1951-80 average

Land Ice • Climate Change

Large US weather disasters 1980-2007

Long term climate trends continued in 2011

Loss events in the U.S. 1980 - 2014

Loss events worldwide 1980 - 2014

Loss events worldwide 2014

Major natural disasters 1972-2008

Maximum and minimum summer temperatures, by region in CA

Maximum temperatures in CA are rising much more slowly than minimum temperatures

Melting of Arctic land-based ice

Monthly arctic ice events

More frost-free days

More U.S. 1" Downpours

More U.S. 2" Downpours

More U.S. 3" Downpours

Moscow July Anomalies

Muir glacier, before. . .

Munich Re Climate Events

Natural Disasters in 2015 per Munich Re

New indicators being added to better understand climate

Numbers of weather-related loss events to 2014

Observed change in very heavy precipitation

Observed shifts in streamflow timing

Observed U.S. precipitation change

Ocean acidification

Ocean acidification is increasing in California

Ocean Acidification • Climate Change

Ocean heat content

Permafrost temperatures rising

Plant hardiness map

Plant hardiness zone maps seems to be changing rapidly

Potential disease impacts - Pine Beetles in the Great Lakes

Precipitation events have been getting more intense

Precipitation Extremes in the U.S. are Increasing

Ranking of hottest years

Ratio of record daily highs to lows for U.S. is changing

Record Temperatures 2015 Jan and Feb

Regional Changes in Climate Extremes

Regional temperature change

Regional variations in warming

Relationship between sea surface temp and hurricane power

Sea level rise

Sea level rise at Golden Gate

Sea Level Rise • Climate Change

Severe weather reports in the U.S. 2014

Shift in the timing of snowmelt

Shifting distribution of summer temperature anomalies GIF

Sierra Nevada precipitation is basically unchanged

Sierra Nevada snowmelt is declining

Significant climate anomalies and event May 2016

Significant climate anomalies in 2014

Spring Comes Early Across the U.S.

State of the Climate: Extreme Events

Streamflow from Snowmelt coming earlier

Summer Temp Trends

Summer Temperature Trends

Temperature change over the last 22 years

Texas drought 2011

The European heat wave of 2003

The Heat is On: U.S. Temperature Trends 1912-2011

The Heat is On: U.S. Temperature Trends 1970-2011

The loss of James Island

The Matterhorn, before . . .

The probability of heat waves in TX has increased substantially

The start to 2016

The underlying data.

There are more man-made than natural catastrophers

These 10 seconds show just how big of a problem drought has become in California

Top 10 Hardest Hit States of 2011

Tundra greenness has increased 15% by 1982

U.S. precipitation change observed and forecast by scenario

U.S. temperature change observed and forecast by scenario

U.S. temperature records are trending upward in ratio of high to low

U.S. Thunderstorm Loss Trends

U.S. trend in extreme precipitation during storms

U.S. Wildfires • Climate Change

Variation in cold season storms

Very clear trends in extreme precipitation

Warming Winters in the U.S.

We're confident that it's human activities

We're setting more records for warm days than cold days

Weather losses are climbing, while insured proportion is decreasing

Weather related grid disruptions have been increasing

What do multi-year averages look like in the temperature record?

Which Season is Warming Fastest

Wildfires in western US vs average monthly maximum temperature 1980-99

Winter 2015-16 anomalies vs past average

Winter 2015-16 Anomaly

Climate responding faster than expected

Current impacts - Permafrost

Current Impacts - "Tropics" are expanding

Current Impacts - Power Production

Its happening faster than the IPCC anticipated

Sea level rise is accelerating

We know some impacts being observed sooner than projected

E - Temperature Impacts

Infographic - Risks at 2, 3, 4 Degrees

Infographic - Snapshot of a Warming World

I:1.5vs2.0Degrees (HowCanIVisualize?)

I:BoundingPolicyOutcomes

T - Visualizing Future Impacts

E - Impacts by Degree

2016 Global monthly temperature anomalies 2015-2016

2016/11 What will the world actually look like at 1.5°C of warming?

2018/10 Interactive: The impacts of climate change at 1.5C, 2C and beyond

2014 Global Warming Projections, 2 degrees warmer (from NG 2008)

2015 Climate Change: What Happens If The World Warms Up By 2°C?

3oC - Asian cities that will be worst affected by sea level rise

1500-2010 (2012) European summer temperatures 1500-2010

1500-2010 (2012) Frequency of extreme European summers

1900-2010 (2011) Anomalies are clearly trending towards hot and very hot temperatures

1900-2010 (2011) U.S. temperature anomalies not nearly as clear as other parts of the world

1900-2100 (2008) Change in daily heavy precipitation events, with uncertainty

1900-2100 (2008) Increase in % of warm nights for North America, with uncertainty

1900-2100 (2010) Changes in permafrost coverage to 2100

1920-2100 (2017) A massive increase in "nuisance flooding" around the U.S.

1950-2010 (2011) Fraction of surface area that's cold or hot shifting significantly

1950-2010 (2011) One can see a systematic warming signal in a number of regions

1950-2010 (2011) The extreme heat tail of anomalies has shifted by 1 SD over 3 decades

1950-2010 (2011) We can track how annual anomalies diverge in terms of SDs from the baseline

1950-2011 (2011) The fraction of land area with very high extremes is increasing

1950-2011 (2012) Temperature anomaly distributions during the summer for the U.S.

1950-2011 (2013) It's not the change in global average temperature that really matters, it's the tails of the probability curve

1950-2015 (2016) North and Southern hemisphere temperature anomaly shifts

1950-2015 (2016) Regional shifts in temperature anomalies - Africa, Middle East, SE Asia

1950-2015 (2016) Regional shifts in temperature anomalies - U.S., Europe, China, India

1955-2007 (2011) We can track how surface temperatures are changing over time

1955-2011 (2011) The proportion of surface area displaying >3 SDs is growing significantly

1980-2100 (2014) North Hemisphere near-surface permafrost area to 2100

1980-2100 (2014) Northern Hemisphere snow cover change to 2100

1980-2100 (2014) Number of days over 95o (F) RCP 8.5 Median and 1 in 20 chance

1980-2100 (2015) Change in after number of days over 95 degrees (F) Median and 1 in 20 chance estimates

2000-2013 (2016) Observed change in U.S. precipitation patterns

2000-2050 (2012) Expected value of hurricane damages to Miami-Dade

2011 Very good chance we're already committed to >2 degrees C

2012 Probabilistic Forecasts to 2100 based on new Representative Concentration Pathways

2012 Showing North American Detail

2012 There's huge uncertainty about really long-term outcomes

2014 Average summer temperatures across the U.S.

2014 Average winter temperatures

2014 Global temperature projections different and timelines

2014 Number of extreme cold days

2014 Projected changes in frost-free season length by scenario

2015 Global probability of exceeding 99th extremes with temperature increase

2015 Probability of extreme precipitation events under warming

2016 Alternative warming paths

2016 Emissions limits required to achieve temperature targets

2016 Potential temperature increase associated with consuming proven fossil fuels

2016 Temperature anomalies by latitude

2017/7 Alarming New Animation Shows The Months Are Indeed Getting Warmer

2017 Latitudinal risk of deadly climate

2017 Sea surface temperature anomaly 1961-1990

2020 2019 was Alaska's warmest year on record

2020 2019 Was 2nd Warmest Year on Record

2020 Arctic sea ice extent since 1979

2020 Global temperature time series

2020 US Temperature conditions 2019

2021 Amplification of temperature changes in the Arctic

2021 Australian annual average daily maximum temperature 1910-2021

2021 Committed sea level rise as a function of long-term global temperature increase

2021 Global population (2010 - 2100) experiencing a heatwave that exceeds 98th and 99th percentile of reference period (1981-2010)

2021 La Nina and Indian Ocean dipole 2021

2021 Land and ocean temperature percentiles for Jan-Dec 2020

2021 Number of people exposed to heat stress above the risks to workability and survivability thresholds

2021 Populations in Africa and Middle East experiencing heatwaves 2010 - 2100

2021 Populations in Asia and Australasia experiencing heatwaves 2010 - 2100

2021 Populations in Europe experiencing heatwaves 2010 - 2100

2021 Populations in North, Central, and South America experiencing heatwaves 2010 - 2100

2050 (2014) Planting zone changes over time

2100 (2012) Expected change in regional extreme temperatures (degrees and SDs)

2100 (2012) Expected regional temperature change (degrees and SDs)

2100 (2012) Percentage of expected to exceed 3, 4, and 5 SDs from current temperatures

2100 100 Degree days in U.S. Under 2 Emissions Scenarios

Attributing the current warming

Average warming under IPCC Scenarios - NAS Public

Changing average global temperature

Comparing mitigation, non-mitigation, and full stop scenarios to 2100

Comparing the Paris commitments

Comparing the temperature projections of different scenarios to 2100

Distribution of recent lethal heat events

Emissions and Temperature Linkage - NAS Public

Forecasted US temp changes

Heat map change in deadly days, temperature, and humidity

How extreme events rapidly get more extreme

Mapping countries' temperature change vs. speed of change

New simulations for projected temperature in the U.S.

Number of days per year above deadly heat threshold

Patterns of warming in Summer and Winter - NAS Public

Probability of global temperature thresholds based on IPCC scenario

Projected changes in future deadly climatic conditions - area and population

Projected global temperature change

Projected temperature change of hottest and coldest days

Projected U.S. temperature change

Putting current temperatures in context

Regional temperature and precipitation probabilities based on RCP3 and RCP8.5

Relative probability of extremes compared to pre-industrial

Significant climate anomalies and event May 2016

Temperature increases of 10-12 degrees C by 2300

Three former Olympic venues may lack sufficient snow, even with artificial snowmaking

US temperatures from 1991-2020 compared with 20th century average

When shortages of cold and snow are combined, 4 former Olympic venues likely to be unreliable hosts by midcentury

2010-2100 (2015) Probability that today’s 30-year floods will occur in a given year regionally

2010-2100 Regional Warming under 3 scenarios

2020-2100 (2014) Changes in NYC 100-year flood zones

A wide range of global temperature increases is possible, but more than 2oC is almost certain

E - Temperature Record

1. Where is the heat going?

2011/1 Global Surface Temperature Anomalies

200X 800,000 year temperature CO2 record - NAS Public

1900-2010 (2011) Anomalies are clearly trending towards hot and very hot temperatures

1950-2010 (2011) Fraction of surface area that's cold or hot shifting significantly

1950-2010 (2011) We can track how annual anomalies diverge in terms of SDs from the baseline

1950-2011 (2011) The fraction of land area with very high extremes is increasing

1955-2007 (2011) We can track how surface temperatures are changing over time

1955-2011 (2011) The proportion of surface area displaying >3 SDs is growing significantly

2009 Climate change modeling has gotten a lot better

2010 The Vostok Ice Cores

2013 Civilizations have evolved within a very narrow temperature band for 10,000 years

2013 Human civilization has evolved in an unusually stable climatic period

2013 We have seen sharp shifts in CO2 emissions before

2014 1700 Years of Global Temperature Change from Proxy Data

2014 Long-term warming and short-term variations

2014 Regional warming/cooling 1901 - 1950

2014 Regional warming/cooling 1901 - 1961

2014 Regional warming/cooling 1901 - 1971

2014 Regional warming/cooling 1901 - 1981

2014 Regional warming/cooling 1901 - 1991

2014 Regional warming/cooling 1901 - 2000

2014 Regional warming/cooling 1901 - 2009

2017 Temperature anomalies over land and ocean 1950 - 2017

2017 The ice core data is key because it tracks the development of humans

2017 The IPCC scenarios for temperature change

2017 The last 20,000 years

2019 Average global temperature 1850-2019

2019 Average global temperatures (by month) 1850 - 2019

2019 How did daily U.S. temperatures devitate from the historical average?

2019 How much individual countries have warmed

2019 The temperature history of individual countries in stripes

2020 Australia's maximum annual temperature anomaly

2020 Australian average temperature trends 1910 - 2019

2020 Global temperature deviations by year and decade

2020 Land vs. Ocean temperatures 1850 - 2019

2020 U.S. annual temperature compared to 20th century average

2021 Amplification of temperature changes in the Arctic

2021 Australian annual average daily maximum temperature 1910-2021

2021 Changes in global surface temperature relative to 1850 - 1900

2021 Five-year average temperature anomalies relative to 1981 - 2010 average

2021 Global mean temperature anomalies 1854 - 2021

2023 Surface air temperature anomaly for January 2023

Change in normal temperatures between 1981-2010 and 1991-2020

Global Surface Temp Record - NAS Public

Short Term Impacts of Natural Climate Variations - NAS Public

US temperatures from 1991-2020 compared with 20th century average

1.5 Temperature Change at Different Scales

2012/3 Extraordinary temperature anomaly in US in March 2012

We know a lot about temperature records

E - Timeline Impacts

Coastal flooding will increase in NYC

I:1.5vs2.0Degrees (HowCanIVisualize?)

Climate Central - Threatened U.S. Cities by Decade

2015 A climate change Christmas: the hottest deals of 2056 – video

2015 Earth Under Water in 2040 HD Documentary 2015

1500-2010 (2012) European summer temperatures 1500-2010

1500-2010 (2012) Frequency of extreme European summers

1900-2010 (2011) Anomalies are clearly trending towards hot and very hot temperatures

1900-2010 (2011) U.S. temperature anomalies not nearly as clear as other parts of the world

1900-2100 (2008) Change in daily heavy precipitation events, with uncertainty

1900-2100 (2008) Increase in % of warm nights for North America, with uncertainty

1900-2100 (2010) Changes in permafrost coverage to 2100

1900-2100 (2012) Estimated ocean acidification under alternative emissions scenarios