E - Catastrophe Modeling

E - Climate Uncertainty

E - Expert Elicitation

E - Integrated Assessment Modeling

E - Model Reliability

2011/1 Global Surface Temperature Anomalies

1990-2300 (1996) Global temperature change associated with SLR estimates

1995 Projected geographic distribution of global temperature change based on 2x CO2

1995 Projected temperature change to 2070

2009 Climate change modeling has gotten a lot better

2010 Annual variation in national precipitation estimates based on 53 model runs using 24 models

2011 The increasing resolution of climate models

2011 The many steps associated with estimating extreme event damages

2012 There's huge uncertainty about really long-term outcomes

2014 Related concentrations to temperature based on these runs

2016 IAMs are at the core of climate change economic analysis, but have a very hard incorporating tipping points

2017 The ice core data is key because it tracks the development of humans

2021 Current and proposed connections between climate research and business

Applying Bayes' Theorem to Climate Change Trends

Breakdown of these conclusions by resources and data

Climate models have evolved significantly

CMIP6 Global Climate Model Projections

Computer models of the atmosphere

Dealing with the water cycle

Estimated warming in 2100 based on revisions in Transient Climate Response estimates

Issue of measurement site bias appears a red herring

1983 Key components of the analytical methodology

Modeling the climate system

Models Have to Grapple With Several Sources of Uncertainty

Most scenarios lead to a high probability of exceeding 2 degrees of change

Muller's Review of the Temperature Record

No evidence found in review

Research need to focus on model verification

Scenarios make a big difference 2050 to 2100, making some scenarios much riskier than others

Temperature probabilities vary widely across the scenarios

Testing the IPCC Hypothesis Over the Short Term

The evolution of climate models

The family tree of GCMs

The IPCC's Estimates Were Too High

The models have a lot to contend with

The Noise Can Easily Obscure the Signal

The reason for model downscaling

There has been a lot of evolution in models since 1970s

Uncertainties in climate change projections come from several sources, varying over time

Warming and Colling Influences Since 1750 - NAS Public

We know that models have uncertainties

1983 Yearly Modeling Sequence

Abstract

Be very careful about misreading model results

GCMs are not valid tools for examining how climate will change at the scale of physical assets

The desire of governments, regulators, standard-setters, and business to assess climate risk requires urgent understanding of the uses and limitations of climate model information

The IPCC has used very different scenario approaches over time

1. Where is the heat going?

The great majority of added energy goes into upper oceans

2007 Mindmap - The science of global warming

2008 How much sensitivity matters

2008 The current bathtub

2009 At what temperature will we stabilize?

2009 Key facts on key GHGs

2009 Snapshot of world GHG emissions by sector, 2000

2009 The right observational timescale for understanding climate change?

2010 An alternative view of temperature vs. cumulative emissions

2010 CO2 and CH4 in the Ice Cores and Today

2010 Correlating CO2 and Temperature in the Vostok Record

2010 Linking temperature to cumulative emissions

2010 The 100,000 Year Cycles in the Vostok Cores

2010 The Vostok Temperature Record

2010 Timescale for removing CO2 from the atmosphere

2011 Estimates of climate sensitivity have varied widely

2011 Probability distributions of climate sensitivity

2011 Scientific perception of risk across the board

2011 The timeline for CO2 removals from the atmosphere

2011 Uncertainty in climate sensitivity

2011 Why is the warming so slow to manifest itself?

2013 It takes a long time for CO2 levels to come back down

2014 Estimated Equilibrium climate sensitivity

2014 Implications of climate sensitivity

2014 Transient climate response

2014 Where Climate Sensitivity Estimates Come From

2015/12 Timeline of Global Change Science

2016 650,000 years of CO2 concentrations

2016 Weather Channel_CO2 concentrations

2017 1950 was the turning point for CO2

A tale of CO2 and three planets in our solar system

a. Human development and climate

a. The planetary energy equation

Articles written about climate change

b. The greenhouse effect

Carbon flows in the global carbon cycle

Change in radiative forcing to 2100

Climate change is driving up global heat content

CO2 is only a trace component of the atmosphere

Contribution of individual GHGs to radiative forcing

Estimated positive feedbacks not routinely incorporated into climate estimates

Estimating planetary temperatures based on greenhouse effects

Fossil fuel reserves and potential contribution to CO2

Global carbon cycle 2007 - 2016

Global forcing has expanded rapidly with population

Google Images Page - Global Carbon Cycle

Graphic - How big a change are we talking about?

Graphic - Where's the heat going?

How sensitive a greenhouse?

IPCC Likelihood that observed change is anthropogenic

Residence times of different gases in the atmosphere

Short Term Impacts of Natural Climate Variations - NAS Public

The global carbon cycle

The global carbon cycle

The implications of climate sensitivity

The timelines of weather and climate forecasting

This is what cycles do - but that's not what's happening

We understand greenhouse gases - molecules

What's warming the world? - 2

What's warming the world? - 3

What's warming the world? - 4

What's warming the world? - 5

What's warming the world? - 6

What's warming the world? - 7

2007 Estimates of climate sensitivity vary widely

2007 The long tail of climate sensitivity

2008 How much sensitivity matters

2009 Risk of temperature directly related to concentrations, and varies widely over time

2010 Linking temperature to cumulative emissions

2010 Relating emissions trajectories to near-term and long-term warming

2011 Estimates of climate sensitivity have varied widely

2011 Probability distributions of climate sensitivity

2011 The tail of scientific uncertainty is longer than we thought

2011 Uncertainty - Climate sensitivity

2011 Uncertainty in climate sensitivity

2014 Estimated Equilibrium climate sensitivity

2014 Implications of climate sensitivity

2014 Transient climate response

2014 Where Climate Sensitivity Estimates Come From

A wide range of climate sensitivity estimates

Feedbacks with what impact?

Sea Level Rise SLR

Taylor: We just don't know a lot of key things about climate change. It all depends on the planetary sensitivity

The IPCC considers a wide range of values

1. Where is the heat going?

2015/1 Infographic: The Anti-Science Climate Denier Caucus, 114th Congress Edition

Infographic - A review of major milestones in climate science and policy

Infographic - Climate Change Scientific Consensus

Infographic - Climate Change Today

Infographic - Fossil fuels in a historical timeline

Infographic - IPCC Climate Everyones Business

Infographic - The Carbon Budget

Infographic - The-big-questions-of-climate-change

Infographic - Why global carbon emissions fell in 2014

Infographic 2013 Climate by the Numbers

E - Carbon Budget

E - Carbon Cycle

E - Climate Change Fingerprint

E - Climate Feedbacks

E - Climate History

E - Climate Uncertainty

E - Dangerous Change

E - Doubting Climate Science Knowledgebase

E - GHG Emissions Scenarios/Forecasts

E - Impact Attribution

E - Past and Future Emissions

E - Science Education

E - Topic History

Are disaster scenarios about tipping points like ‘turning off the Gulf Stream’ and release of methane from the Arctic a cause for concern?

2015 IPCC_Infographics Working Group 1

The great majority of added energy goes into upper oceans

2019/X How we know that global warming is real

2007 Mindmap - The science of global warming

2008 How much sensitivity matters

2008 The current bathtub

2009 At what temperature will we stabilize?

2009 Key facts on key GHGs

2009 Snapshot of world GHG emissions by sector, 2000

2009 The right observational timescale for understanding climate change?

2010 An alternative view of temperature vs. cumulative emissions

2010 CO2 and CH4 in the Ice Cores and Today

2010 Correlating CO2 and Temperature in the Vostok Record

2010 Linking temperature to cumulative emissions

2010 The 100,000 Year Cycles in the Vostok Cores

2010 The Vostok Temperature Record

2010 Timescale for removing CO2 from the atmosphere

2011 Estimates of climate sensitivity have varied widely

2011 Probability distributions of climate sensitivity

2011 Scientific perception of risk across the board

2011 The timeline for CO2 removals from the atmosphere

2011 Uncertainty in climate sensitivity

2011 Why is the warming so slow to manifest itself?

2013 It takes a long time for CO2 levels to come back down

2014 Estimated Equilibrium climate sensitivity

2014 Implications of climate sensitivity

2014 Transient climate response

2014 Where Climate Sensitivity Estimates Come From

2015/12 Timeline of Global Change Science

2015 Timescales of climate processes and inclusion of feedbacks in climate models

2016 650,000 years of CO2 concentrations

2016 Weather Channel_CO2 concentrations

2017 1950 was the turning point for CO2

2020 Temperature record over last 65 million years

2021 Only 0.17 Percent of Peer-Reviewed Papers Question Global Warming

A tale of CO2 and three planets in our solar system

a. Human development and climate

a. The planetary energy equation

Articles written about climate change

b. The greenhouse effect

Carbon flows in the global carbon cycle

Change in radiative forcing to 2100

Climate change is driving up global heat content

CO2 concentrations are much lower today than in the past

CO2 is only a trace component of the atmosphere

Contribution of individual GHGs to radiative forcing

Estimated positive feedbacks not routinely incorporated into climate estimates

Estimating planetary temperatures based on greenhouse effects

Explaining the climate record with volcanoes and solar spots.

Fossil fuel reserves and potential contribution to CO2

Global carbon cycle 2007 - 2016

Global forcing has expanded rapidly with population

Google Images Page - Global Carbon Cycle

Graphic - How big a change are we talking about?

Graphic - Where's the heat going?

gw 10

How sensitive a greenhouse?

IPCC Likelihood that observed change is anthropogenic

No expert disagrees with fact that anthropogenic emissions are rising and impacting the atmosphere

Residence times of different gases in the atmosphere

Scienstists who established the basis for climate change

Short Term Impacts of Natural Climate Variations - NAS Public

Significant climate influences 1850-2018

SPM1. Total GHG Emissions by Gases

SPM2. GHG emissions by sectors

SPM3. Where Were Changes in CO2 Coming From By Decade

SPM4. GHG Emissions Pathways for AR5 Scenarios

SPM5. GHG Emissions Pathways to 2030

SPM6. Impact of climate policy on air pollution

SPM7. Direct Emissions by Scenario and w/ w/o CCS

SPM8. Demand Reduction and Low-Carbon Energy Shares

SPM9. Changes in Annual Investment Flows

The current GWP of GHGs

The global carbon cycle

The global carbon cycle

The implications of climate sensitivity

The timelines of weather and climate forecasting

This is what cycles do - but that's not what's happening

We understand greenhouse gases - molecules

What's warming the world? - 2

What's warming the world? - 3

What's warming the world? - 4

What's warming the world? - 5

What's warming the world? - 6

What's warming the world? - 7

2. Humble Human Influences

A lot of great EU graphics re climate change

Against the right scale (K) the sensitivity of the atmosphere makes more sense

Black carbon

Changing CO2 concentrations have increased the capture of energy in the atmosphere by less than 1%

Energy in the climate system is expressed as w/m2

Fossil fuel burning was identified as a risk long ago

Modest human impacts on climate can be analogized to slight changes in diet

Scientists have called for dramatic reductions - but no such policy in place

Since human impacts amounts to 1% of global energy flow, everything else has to be understood very well

There is no such thing about scientific certainty in the way it's commonly used

What are some of the risky what-ifs?

What do we know for sure regarding climate change?

What don't we know for sure regarding climate change?

0oC - 3.5oC heating degree days impacts in the U.S.

0oC - 4oC crop yield impacts

1900-2100 (2010) Changes in permafrost coverage to 2100

2010 % of summers warmer than today's 95th percentile, based on 3oC from pre-industrial

2010 1 Meter of Sea Level Rise on the Gulf Coast

2010 Ability of ocean organizations to calcify, related to stabilized CO2 concentrations

2010 An alternative view of temperature vs. cumulative emissions

2010 CO2 and HFC emissions to 2050

2010 Cumulative and projected carbon emissions to 2050

2010 Direct climate impacts, and associated human/ecological impacts

2010 Economics of climate change in Chicago by 2070-2099

2010 Linking temperature to cumulative emissions

2010 Potential distances species will have to cover to stay at the same temperature

2010 Relating emissions trajectories to near-term and long-term warming

2010 Relating sea level rise to storm return time for NYC

2010 The Greenland ice sheet under alternative long-term scenarios

2010 Timescale for removing CO2 from the atmosphere

Centigrade vs. Fahrenheit

Per degree changes in precipitation globally

Per degree impacts on hurricane and typhoon intensity

Per degree relative change in runoff globally