FIRST ORDER IMPACTS WITH RISK IMPLICATIONS
DO WE NEED A COMPREHENSIVE CLIMATE RISK ASSESSMENT? OR DO WE ALREADY KNOW WHAT IT WOULD CONCLUDE?
The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries has published Climate Scorpion - the sting is in the tail
The report recommends undertaking a “realistic risk assessment”
A risk assessment that takes into account all possible futures
Climate risks are being driven by The Great Acceleration
More Recent Metrics Representing Human Activities
More Recent Metrics Representing Climate Responses
Leading to concerns about crossing planetary boundaries
We know the Earth has looked very different in the past
We know oceans have been much higher than today
And we know human systems are adapted to global stability
A RISK PERSPECTIVE IS INDEED CRITICAL, AND IN PRINCIPLE POSSIBLE
Average Global Temperature Increase
Antarctic Sea and Land Ice Loss
Changing Cloud Types and Coverage
Changing Disease Ranges/Northward Shift
Changing Growing Seasons/Northward Shift
Changing Species Ranges/ Northward Shift
Glacier Shrinkage/Disappearance
Increased Bleaching/Death of Coral Reefs
Increased Wildfire Frequency and Strength
More Cooling Fewer Heating Degree Days
More Droughts/Changing Drought Patterns
More Extreme Precipitation Events
More Extreme Temperatures and Heatwaves
More High/Fewer Low Temperature Records
More Severe and Frequent Storms
Ocean Warming/More Marine Heat Waves
Rising Great Lakes Temperatures, Changing Water Levels
Rising Nighttime Temperatures
Rising Stream Temperatures, Reduced Flows
Thinner Lake and River Ice
INTER-RELATED TIPPING POINTS WITH FIRST ORDER FEEDBACKS
Accelerated Antarctic Melt
Accelerated Greenland Melting
Accelerated Sea Level Rise
Acclerated Permafrost Melt
Amazon Forest Switches From Source to Sink
Amazon Forest Transitions to Savannah
Boreal Forest Switches From Sink to Source
Methane Clathrate Release
SECOND ORDER IMPACTS WITH RISK IMPLICATIONS (SELECTED!)
Accelerated Depletion of Water Supplies
Falling Real Estate Values at the Coast and in the Mountains
Inability to Get Fire or Flood Insurance
Increased Environmental Migration
Large Scale Disruption of Fisheries
Large Scale Disruption of the Wine Industry
Large Scale Disruptions to Ports and Supply Chains
Reduced Labor Productivity in Hot Areas
Rising Risk of Interior and Coastal Flooding
Substantial Crop Yield Reductions
Substantial Rise in Insurance Costs
Widespread Climate Gentrification
Worsening of Economic Inequalities
SYSTEMIC RISKS AND EVENTS
Climate Induced Global Recession
Climate Induced Social Collapse
Climate Induced Global Conflict
Climate Induced Global Food Shock
Climate Induced Global Pandemic
Climate Induced Real Estate Collapse
CONFOUNDING BARRIER VARIABLES
Reduction in Sulfur Aerosols
Challenge Campaign Finance Reform
Challenge Climate Policy as a Push for Big Government
Challenge Climate/Scientific/Risk Illiteracy Programs
Challenge Efforts to End Fossil Fuel Subsidies
Challenge Efforts to Mandate the Social Cost of Carbon
Challenge Gerrymandering Reform
Criminalization of Climate Protest
Defend Cost-Benefit Analysis as Economic Frame
Defend the Profit Motive as a Measure of Societal Benefit
Encourage "Fair and Balanced" Education and Textbooks
Encourage NIMBY Responses to a Low Carbon Transition
Fight Carbon Pricing Policy as Costly and Unfair
Flood Conversation with "Economic Cost" Messaging
Fosus on "Expected" Rather Than Long-Tailed Risk Outcomes
Fund Climate Skepticism and Misinformation
Keep Climate Conversations Focused on "Patternicity" Bias
Portray Business as the Solution to Climate Change
Portray Individual Behaviors as Crucial to Climate Change Outcomes
Promote as Much Climate Change Cognitive Dissonance as Possible
Promote carbon markets and carbon offsets as alternatives to structural change
Promote Continued Political Polarization
Promotion of Market Mechanisms to Delay Regulations
Promotion of Voluntary Measures and Commitments to Delay Policy
Push for the End of Renewable Energy and EV Subsidies
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A Climate Fingerprint thought