2011 Probability distributions of climate sensitivity
E - Long Tail Risk Impacts
1. The relevance of known unknowns, and unknown unknowns
More detail from Degrees of Risk
1. Where is the heat going?
2015/1 Infographic: The Anti-Science Climate Denier Caucus, 114th Congress Edition
Infographic - A review of major milestones in climate science and policy
Infographic - Climate Change Scientific Consensus
Infographic - Climate Change Today
Infographic - Fossil fuels in a historical timeline
Infographic - IPCC Climate Everyones Business
Infographic - The Carbon Budget
Infographic - The-big-questions-of-climate-change
Infographic - Why global carbon emissions fell in 2014
Infographic 2013 Climate by the Numbers
E - Climate Change Fingerprint
E - Climate Modeling and Forecasting
E - Doubting Climate Science Knowledgebase
E - GHG Emissions Scenarios/Forecasts
E - Past and Future Emissions
Are disaster scenarios about tipping points like ‘turning off the Gulf Stream’ and release of methane from the Arctic a cause for concern?
2011 Mabey_Degrees of Risk Annex - Overview of Risk Management Analysis Methodology
2015 IPCC_Infographics Working Group 1
Small average changes in temperature can hide dramatic changes at extremes
The great majority of added energy goes into upper oceans
2019/X How we know that global warming is real
2007 Estimates of climate sensitivity vary widely
2007 Mindmap - The science of global warming
2007 The long tail of climate sensitivity
2008 How much sensitivity matters
2009 At what temperature will we stabilize?
2009 Key facts on key GHGs
2009 Risk of temperature directly related to concentrations, and varies widely over time
2009 Snapshot of world GHG emissions by sector, 2000
2009 The right observational timescale for understanding climate change?
2009 There are many high-consequence outcomes associated with different mitigation scenarios other than tipping points per se
2010 An alternative view of temperature vs. cumulative emissions
2010 CO2 and CH4 in the Ice Cores and Today
2010 Correlating CO2 and Temperature in the Vostok Record
2010 Extreme event "tail risks" are substantial
2010 Linking temperature to cumulative emissions
2010 Modeled sensitivity per 1000 GTs emissions
2010 Relating emissions trajectories to near-term and long-term warming
2010 The 100,000 Year Cycles in the Vostok Cores
2010 The Vostok Temperature Record
2010 Timescale for removing CO2 from the atmosphere
2011 A risk based climate strategy
2011 Aggregated climate change index shows future change relative to current variability
2011 Emissions trajectories compatible (50% ) with 2 degree limit
2011 Estimates of climate sensitivity have varied widely
2011 Scientific perception of risk across the board
2011 The 4 climate security scenarios to be planning for
2011 The tail of scientific uncertainty is longer than we thought
2011 The timeline for CO2 removals from the atmosphere
2011 Uncertainty - Climate sensitivity
2011 Uncertainty in climate sensitivity
2011 Why are we confident that observed warming is anthropogenic?
2011 Why are we confident that observed warming is anthropogenic? (2)
2011 Why is the warming so slow to manifest itself?
2013 High risks increase faster than mean risks
2013 It takes a long time for CO2 levels to come back down
2014 Estimated Equilibrium climate sensitivity
2014 Implications of climate sensitivity
2014 Transient climate response
2014 Where Climate Sensitivity Estimates Come From
2015/12 Timeline of Global Change Science
2015 Timescales of climate processes and inclusion of feedbacks in climate models
2016 650,000 years of CO2 concentrations
2016 Weather Channel_CO2 concentrations
2017 1950 was the turning point for CO2
2019 Visualizing the long tail of the probability distribution
2020 Temperature record over last 65 million years
2021 Only 0.17 Percent of Peer-Reviewed Papers Question Global Warming
2022 The current status of climate sensitivity estimates
A tale of CO2 and three planets in our solar system
a. Human development and climate
a. The planetary energy equation
An example of tail risk in the maritime sector
Articles written about climate change
Carbon flows in the global carbon cycle
Change in radiative forcing to 2100
Climate change is driving up global heat content
CO2 concentrations are much lower today than in the past
CO2 is only a trace component of the atmosphere
Contribution of individual GHGs to radiative forcing
Estimated positive feedbacks not routinely incorporated into climate estimates
Estimating planetary temperatures based on greenhouse effects
Explaining the climate record with volcanoes and solar spots.
Fossil fuel reserves and potential contribution to CO2
Global carbon cycle 2007 - 2016
Global forcing has expanded rapidly with population
Google Images Page - Global Carbon Cycle
Graphic - How big a change are we talking about?
Graphic - Where's the heat going?
How sensitive a greenhouse?
Interpreting the IPCC's Results
IPCC Likelihood that observed change is anthropogenic
No expert disagrees with fact that anthropogenic emissions are rising and impacting the atmosphere
Relatively modest mitigation takes tail risk off the table
Residence times of different gases in the atmosphere
Scienstists who established the basis for climate change
Short Term Impacts of Natural Climate Variations - NAS Public
Significant climate influences 1850-2018
SPM1. Total GHG Emissions by Gases
SPM2. GHG emissions by sectors
SPM3. Where Were Changes in CO2 Coming From By Decade
SPM4. GHG Emissions Pathways for AR5 Scenarios
SPM5. GHG Emissions Pathways to 2030
SPM6. Impact of climate policy on air pollution
SPM7. Direct Emissions by Scenario and w/ w/o CCS
SPM8. Demand Reduction and Low-Carbon Energy Shares
SPM9. Changes in Annual Investment Flows
Tail risk for maritime accidents
The 2003 European heat wave against the normal distribution
The implications of climate sensitivity
The timelines of weather and climate forecasting
This is what cycles do - but that's not what's happening
We understand greenhouse gases - molecules
What's warming the world? - 2
What's warming the world? - 3
What's warming the world? - 4
What's warming the world? - 5
What's warming the world? - 6
What's warming the world? - 7
2. Humble Human Influences
2020-2050 (2020) Increase in long tail risk of hurricane damages in Florida
A lot of great EU graphics re climate change
A wide range of climate sensitivity estimates
Against the right scale (K) the sensitivity of the atmosphere makes more sense
Beware of long tails that lead to underestimaing risks
Changing CO2 concentrations have increased the capture of energy in the atmosphere by less than 1%
Climate change and non-proliferation have similarities_but not in how we're approaching them
Climate change integrated into security planning in several ways
Comparison between terrorism risk and climate change risk
Current best evidence of climate change
Energy in the climate system is expressed as w/m2
Estimates of U.S. Water Damages - Climate Change
Feedbacks with what impact?
Fossil fuel burning was identified as a risk long ago
Modest human impacts on climate can be analogized to slight changes in diet
Scientists have called for dramatic reductions - but no such policy in place
Since human impacts amounts to 1% of global energy flow, everything else has to be understood very well
Some of the major impacts
Taylor: We just don't know a lot of key things about climate change. It all depends on the planetary sensitivity
The Cancun Agreements give an outline of a global climate regime
The fact is that we spend a lot of money to avoid long-tail risk
The IPCC considers a wide range of values
There is no such thing about scientific certainty in the way it's commonly used
We are not applying the lessons of managing security risks
What about the venus effect?
What are some of the risky what-ifs?
What do we know for sure regarding climate change?
What don't we know for sure regarding climate change?
No more concurrent uploads are allowed - wait until at least one has finished.
2011 Probability distributions of climate sensitivity
2011 Degrees of Risk_Defining a Risk Management Framework for Climate Security_Full Report
Climate Sensitivity to GHGs
Known and Unknown Long Tailed Climate Risks
Under-Estimating Climate Risk