1. Where is the heat going?

The great majority of added energy goes into upper oceans

2007 Mindmap - The science of global warming

2008 How much sensitivity matters

2008 The current bathtub

2009 At what temperature will we stabilize?

2009 Key facts on key GHGs

2009 Snapshot of world GHG emissions by sector, 2000

2009 The right observational timescale for understanding climate change?

2010 An alternative view of temperature vs. cumulative emissions

2010 CO2 and CH4 in the Ice Cores and Today

2010 Correlating CO2 and Temperature in the Vostok Record

2010 Linking temperature to cumulative emissions

2010 Modeled sensitivity per 1000 GTs emissions

2010 The 100,000 Year Cycles in the Vostok Cores

2010 The Vostok Temperature Record

2010 Timescale for removing CO2 from the atmosphere

2011 Estimates of climate sensitivity have varied widely

2011 Scientific perception of risk across the board

2011 The timeline for CO2 removals from the atmosphere

2011 Uncertainty in climate sensitivity

2011 Why is the warming so slow to manifest itself?

2013 It takes a long time for CO2 levels to come back down

2014 Estimated Equilibrium climate sensitivity

2014 Implications of climate sensitivity

2014 Transient climate response

2014 Where Climate Sensitivity Estimates Come From

2015/12 Timeline of Global Change Science

2016 650,000 years of CO2 concentrations

2016 Weather Channel_CO2 concentrations

2017 1950 was the turning point for CO2

A tale of CO2 and three planets in our solar system

a. Human development and climate

a. The planetary energy equation

Articles written about climate change

b. The greenhouse effect

Carbon flows in the global carbon cycle

Change in radiative forcing to 2100

Climate change is driving up global heat content

CO2 is only a trace component of the atmosphere

Contribution of individual GHGs to radiative forcing

Estimated positive feedbacks not routinely incorporated into climate estimates

Estimating planetary temperatures based on greenhouse effects

Fossil fuel reserves and potential contribution to CO2

Global carbon cycle 2007 - 2016

Global forcing has expanded rapidly with population

Google Images Page - Global Carbon Cycle

Graphic - How big a change are we talking about?

Graphic - Where's the heat going?

How sensitive a greenhouse?

IPCC Likelihood that observed change is anthropogenic

Residence times of different gases in the atmosphere

Short Term Impacts of Natural Climate Variations - NAS Public

The global carbon cycle

The global carbon cycle

The implications of climate sensitivity

The timelines of weather and climate forecasting

This is what cycles do - but that's not what's happening

We understand greenhouse gases - molecules

What's warming the world? - 2

What's warming the world? - 3

What's warming the world? - 4

What's warming the world? - 5

What's warming the world? - 6

What's warming the world? - 7

2007 Estimates of climate sensitivity vary widely

2007 The long tail of climate sensitivity

2008 How much sensitivity matters

2009 Risk of temperature directly related to concentrations, and varies widely over time

2010 Linking temperature to cumulative emissions

2010 Modeled sensitivity per 1000 GTs emissions

2010 Relating emissions trajectories to near-term and long-term warming

2011 Estimates of climate sensitivity have varied widely

2011 The tail of scientific uncertainty is longer than we thought

2011 Uncertainty - Climate sensitivity

2011 Uncertainty in climate sensitivity

2014 Estimated Equilibrium climate sensitivity

2014 Implications of climate sensitivity

2014 Transient climate response

2014 Where Climate Sensitivity Estimates Come From

A wide range of climate sensitivity estimates

Feedbacks with what impact?

Sea Level Rise SLR

Taylor: We just don't know a lot of key things about climate change. It all depends on the planetary sensitivity

The IPCC considers a wide range of values

Small average changes in temperature can hide dramatic changes at extremes

2010 Extreme event "tail risks" are substantial

2013 High risks increase faster than mean risks

2019 Visualizing the long tail of the probability distribution

An example of tail risk in the maritime sector

Interpreting the IPCC's Results

Relatively modest mitigation takes tail risk off the table

Tail risk for maritime accidents

The 2003 European heat wave against the normal distribution

2020-2050 (2020) Increase in long tail risk of hurricane damages in Florida

Beware of long tails that lead to underestimaing risks

The fact is that we spend a lot of money to avoid long-tail risk

What about the venus effect?

1. Where is the heat going?

2015/1 Infographic: The Anti-Science Climate Denier Caucus, 114th Congress Edition

Infographic - A review of major milestones in climate science and policy

Infographic - Climate Change Scientific Consensus

Infographic - Climate Change Today

Infographic - Fossil fuels in a historical timeline

Infographic - IPCC Climate Everyones Business

Infographic - The Carbon Budget

Infographic - The-big-questions-of-climate-change

Infographic - Why global carbon emissions fell in 2014

Infographic 2013 Climate by the Numbers

E - Carbon Budget

E - Carbon Cycle

E - Climate Change Fingerprint

E - Climate Feedbacks

E - Climate History

E - Climate Modeling and Forecasting

E - Climate Uncertainty

E - Dangerous Change

E - Doubting Climate Science Knowledgebase

E - GHG Emissions Scenarios/Forecasts

E - Impact Attribution

E - Past and Future Emissions

E - Science Education

E - Topic History

Are disaster scenarios about tipping points like ‘turning off the Gulf Stream’ and release of methane from the Arctic a cause for concern?

2015 IPCC_Infographics Working Group 1

The great majority of added energy goes into upper oceans

2019/X How we know that global warming is real

2007 Mindmap - The science of global warming

2008 How much sensitivity matters

2008 The current bathtub

2009 At what temperature will we stabilize?

2009 Key facts on key GHGs

2009 Snapshot of world GHG emissions by sector, 2000

2009 The right observational timescale for understanding climate change?

2010 An alternative view of temperature vs. cumulative emissions

2010 CO2 and CH4 in the Ice Cores and Today

2010 Correlating CO2 and Temperature in the Vostok Record

2010 Linking temperature to cumulative emissions

2010 Modeled sensitivity per 1000 GTs emissions

2010 The 100,000 Year Cycles in the Vostok Cores

2010 The Vostok Temperature Record

2010 Timescale for removing CO2 from the atmosphere

2011 Estimates of climate sensitivity have varied widely

2011 Scientific perception of risk across the board

2011 The timeline for CO2 removals from the atmosphere

2011 Uncertainty in climate sensitivity

2011 Why is the warming so slow to manifest itself?

2013 It takes a long time for CO2 levels to come back down

2014 Estimated Equilibrium climate sensitivity

2014 Implications of climate sensitivity

2014 Transient climate response

2014 Where Climate Sensitivity Estimates Come From

2015/12 Timeline of Global Change Science

2015 Timescales of climate processes and inclusion of feedbacks in climate models

2016 650,000 years of CO2 concentrations

2016 Weather Channel_CO2 concentrations

2017 1950 was the turning point for CO2

2020 Temperature record over last 65 million years

2021 Only 0.17 Percent of Peer-Reviewed Papers Question Global Warming

A tale of CO2 and three planets in our solar system

a. Human development and climate

a. The planetary energy equation

Articles written about climate change

b. The greenhouse effect

Carbon flows in the global carbon cycle

Change in radiative forcing to 2100

Climate change is driving up global heat content

CO2 concentrations are much lower today than in the past

CO2 is only a trace component of the atmosphere

Contribution of individual GHGs to radiative forcing

Estimated positive feedbacks not routinely incorporated into climate estimates

Estimating planetary temperatures based on greenhouse effects

Explaining the climate record with volcanoes and solar spots.

Fossil fuel reserves and potential contribution to CO2

Global carbon cycle 2007 - 2016

Global forcing has expanded rapidly with population

Google Images Page - Global Carbon Cycle

Graphic - How big a change are we talking about?

Graphic - Where's the heat going?

gw 10

How sensitive a greenhouse?

IPCC Likelihood that observed change is anthropogenic

No expert disagrees with fact that anthropogenic emissions are rising and impacting the atmosphere

Residence times of different gases in the atmosphere

Scienstists who established the basis for climate change

Short Term Impacts of Natural Climate Variations - NAS Public

Significant climate influences 1850-2018

SPM1. Total GHG Emissions by Gases

SPM2. GHG emissions by sectors

SPM3. Where Were Changes in CO2 Coming From By Decade

SPM4. GHG Emissions Pathways for AR5 Scenarios

SPM5. GHG Emissions Pathways to 2030

SPM6. Impact of climate policy on air pollution

SPM7. Direct Emissions by Scenario and w/ w/o CCS

SPM8. Demand Reduction and Low-Carbon Energy Shares

SPM9. Changes in Annual Investment Flows

The current GWP of GHGs

The global carbon cycle

The global carbon cycle

The implications of climate sensitivity

The timelines of weather and climate forecasting

This is what cycles do - but that's not what's happening

We understand greenhouse gases - molecules

What's warming the world? - 2

What's warming the world? - 3

What's warming the world? - 4

What's warming the world? - 5

What's warming the world? - 6

What's warming the world? - 7

2. Humble Human Influences

A lot of great EU graphics re climate change

Against the right scale (K) the sensitivity of the atmosphere makes more sense

Black carbon

Changing CO2 concentrations have increased the capture of energy in the atmosphere by less than 1%

Energy in the climate system is expressed as w/m2

Fossil fuel burning was identified as a risk long ago

Modest human impacts on climate can be analogized to slight changes in diet

Scientists have called for dramatic reductions - but no such policy in place

Since human impacts amounts to 1% of global energy flow, everything else has to be understood very well

There is no such thing about scientific certainty in the way it's commonly used

What are some of the risky what-ifs?

What do we know for sure regarding climate change?

What don't we know for sure regarding climate change?

Unintended consequences

2009 There are many high-consequence outcomes associated with different mitigation scenarios other than tipping points per se

2011 Mabey_Degrees of Risk Annex - Overview of Risk Management Analysis Methodology

2011 A risk based climate strategy

2011 Aggregated climate change index shows future change relative to current variability

2011 Emissions trajectories compatible (50% ) with 2 degree limit

2011 The 4 climate security scenarios to be planning for

2011 Why are we confident that observed warming is anthropogenic?

2011 Why are we confident that observed warming is anthropogenic? (2)

Climate change and non-proliferation have similarities_but not in how we're approaching them

Climate change integrated into security planning in several ways

Comparison between terrorism risk and climate change risk

Current best evidence of climate change

Estimates of U.S. Water Damages - Climate Change

Some of the major impacts

The Cancun Agreements give an outline of a global climate regime

We are not applying the lessons of managing security risks