The Climate Web | S - Climate Uncertainties Unknowns

S - Climate Uncertainties Unknowns

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2007 Taleb_The Black Swan

2008 MacCracken_Sudden and Disruptive Climate Change

1995 Myers_Environmental unknowns

2000 Streets_Exploring the concept of climate surprise $$

2001 Reilly_Uncertainties and Climate Change Assessments

2002 NRC_Abrupt Climate Change - Inevitable Surprises

2005 Cameron_Updating Subjective Risks in the Presence of Conflicting Information: An Application to Climate Change

2007 Rahmstorf_Recent climate change observations compared to projections

2007 Taleb_The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable - Get Abstract

2008 Anderson_Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends

2008 PIRC Climate Safety Report - In case of emergency

2008 Wharton Managing Large Scale Risks in a New Era of Catastophes

2009 Fussel_Updated assessment of risks from climate change since IPCC FAR report

2009 Ganguly_Higher trends but larger uncertainty and geographic variability in 21st century temperature and heat waves

2009 Sokolov Probabilistic forecast for 21st century climate based on uncertainties

2009 Weitzman_Some basic economics of extreme climate change

2009 Wigley_Uncertainties in climate stabilization

2010 Backus_Climate Uncertainty and Implications for the US (3 page overview)

2010 Jones_Estimation of global temperature trends - what is important and not

2010 Lindenmayer_Probability of detecting ecological surprises

2010 Majda_Quantifying uncertainy in CC through empirical information theory

2010 Tomassini_Uncertainty and risk in climate projections

2010 Trexler_A gathering of black swans

2011 Chen_Dark Clouds or silver linings. Knightian uncertainty and CC

2011 Duffy_Uncertainty in Future Climate - What you need to know

2011 Elahi_Here be dragons exploring the unknown unknowns $$

2011 Morgan_Key Uncertainties in Assessing Climate Change Impacts

2011 U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan_8-11

2012 Corlett_Climate change in the tropics: The end of the world as we know it? $$

2012 Hansen_A new age of risk

2012 Moss_Climate Science and Uncertainty

2012 Thompson_Climate predictions - the influence of nonlinearity and randomness

2013 Berkhout_Framing climate uncertainty: socio-economic and climate scenarios in vulnerability and adaptation assessments

2013 Hansen_Assessing Dangerous Climate Change

2013 Hansen_Climate forcing growth rates doubling down on our Faustian bargain

2013 Hansen_Climate Urgency

2013 Hodson_Identifying uncertainties in Arctic climate change projections

2013 Huggel_Loss and Damage Attribution

2013 Katz_Uncertainty Analysis in Climate Change Assessments

2013 Legendre_Thirty thousand year old distant relative of giant icosahedral DNA viruses

2013 Parker_Ensemble modeling, uncertainty and robust predictions

2013 Pope_Quantifying uncertainty in climate science

2013 Wagner_Expecting a Black Swan and Getting a Dragon - Confronting Deep Uncertainty in Climate Change

2013 Webster_Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change and Policy Response

2014 Franzke_Nonlinear climate change $$

2014 Lewandowsky_Scientific uncertainty and climate change: Part I. Uncertainty and unabated emissions

2014 Lewandowsky_Scientific uncertainty and climate change: Part II. Uncertainty and mitigation

2014 Northrop_Quantifying sources of uncertainty in projections of future climate

2014 Shiogama_Climate science Clouds of uncertainty

2014 Smith_Changing how earth system modeling is done to provide more useful information

2015 Cooke_Messaging climate change uncertainty $$

2015 Good_Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO2 concentrations $$

2015 Smith_Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature change $$

2017 Liu_Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate

2021 McKay_Updated assessment suggests 1.5 global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

2022 McKay_Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

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N - 1.5oC Target

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Headings - Topical Sources

S - Climate Uncertainties Unknowns

Reports | Journal Papers | PPTs

Evaluating the Near-Term Relevance of Climate Change Tipping Points

Evaluating the Risks of Abrupt Climate Change

Known and Unknown Long Tailed Climate Risks

Under-Estimating Climate Risk

What Are the Key Climate Change Wildcards?