E - Climate Change Tipping Points
E - Climate Response Tipping Points
E - Tipping Point Remote Sensing
Are disaster scenarios about tipping points like ‘turning off the Gulf Stream’ and release of methane from the Arctic a cause for concern?
2009 There are many high-consequence outcomes associated with different mitigation scenarios other than tipping points per se
2011 Potential non-linear tipping points
2013 An early assessment of tipping point probabilities
2013 Once you cross a tipping point, it may be very hard to go back
2014 Potential tipping points
2015 Tipping points shouldn’t be thought of in isolation. Potential large scale disruptions could interact and cascade
2016 IAMs are at the core of climate change economic analysis, but have a very hard incorporating tipping points
2017 Climate tipping points potentially within the range of Paris Agreement outcomes
2017 Planet’s response is no longer linear
2017 Some of these tipping points even within the Paris Agreement
2017 Temperature vs. the likelihood of tipping points
2017 We can no longer exclude destabilizing the earth system
2018 Earth system feedbacks lead to sinks that absorb about half of anthropogenic emissions, with the remainder contributing to atmospheric increase
2018 Net carbon exchange and photosynthesis anomalies over the satellite record for southern and northern land areas. Photosynthesis does not fully explain variation in carbon exchange.
2018 The fate of fossil fuel over the 1959–2015 CO2 record
2019 Display of climate tipping points
2020 AMOC impacts on Atlantic oceanic temperature projection
2020 AMOC strength and global mean surface air temperature
2020 Arctic sea ice projections and AMOC impacts
2020 Atmosphere temperature and zonal wind projections and AMOC impacts
2020 Cascading potential climate tipping points based on temperature outcomes
2020 Evidence of tipping points is increasing
2020 Four main tipping point characteristics may be identified for early warning signals
2020 Identification of tipping points, showing transition from stable food security conditions to a food crisis resulting from drought in Ethiopia
2020 In this model, the transition of interest is the regime shift from favorable food security conditions into a food crisis, and vice versa.
2020 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
2020 Potential climate change tipping points
2020 Surface temperature and precipitation projections and AMOC impacts
2020 The climate system is now believed to be much more sensitive to temperature change than just 20 years ago.
2021 Cascades of abrupt changes in physical–ecological–societal components of the Earth system
2021 Map of selected atmospheric, oceanographic, ecosystem and societal records with abrupt changes or tipping points in
2021 Timeline of abrupt events
2021 Tipping point examples
2021 Updated climate change tipping point
2022 Candidate tipping elements in the climate system
2022 Global mean sea level change relative to 1900
2022 Global warming threshold estimates for global core and regional impact climate tipping elements
2022 Implications of global GHG emission trajectories by 2050 for overshooting 1.5°C
2022 Interactions between climate tipping elements and their roles in tipping cascades
2022 Overview of recent economic analyses incorporating the risk of tipping points
2022 Percentage of global land suitable for crop growth
2022 Potential impacts of crossing selected tipping points
2022 Progression of GHG emissions reductions pledges and projections 2009 to 2021
2022 Risk evaluation based on probability and potential impact of an outcome
2022 Schematic of possible interactions and cascading effects between Earth and human systems
2022 September Arctic sea ice area projections to 2100
2022 Temperature and precipitation responses to an AMOC collapse under 2.5ºC of warming above pre-industrial levels
2022 Temperature thresholds and uncertainty ranges of tipping points
2022 Total anthropogenic GHG emissions 1990 - 2019
2023 A conceptual regional transect from moist to dry localities depicting examples of local to regional feedbacks of forest cover with the land and atmosphere
2023 A framework for prioritising ‘sensitive interventions’ close to a tipping point
2023 Antarctic sea ice evolution 1979-2023 - Time series of Antarctic sea ice area
2023 Arctic sea ice evolution 1979-2023
2023 Avoiding food loss and waste, shifting to more plant-based diets and improving farming practice through agro-ecological approaches are key leverage points
2023 Cascading effects from renewable energy supply to household energy demand
2023 Cascading impacts of rising sea levels across systems
2023 Causal feedback loop of how technical and social elements may interact within the EV transition
2023 Changing risk assessment of tipping points in IPCC reports over time
2023 Circulations and potential tipping systems in the Southern Ocean
2023 Conceptual linkages between changes in the Earth system associated with the Eocene-Oligocene Transition, 34 million years ago
2023 Data visualisation dashboard showing how food security transitions are detected with remotely sensed soil moisture data and food price data
2023 Different AMOC modes and palaeo-evidence
2023 Early indicators before a tipping point
2023 Engineering approaches at the scale of Earth system tipping elements
2023 Example of a tipping point in the context of food security
2023 Examples of impact of extreme weather events on mental health across the world
2023 Features of the Paris Agreement that need adjustment to account for climate tipping points
2023 Feedbacks that could lead to savanna tipping
2023 Financial barriers to Earth system tipping points preparedness in the Global South
2023 Forcing a system past a tipping point
2023 Global distribution of dryland subtypes based on the aridity index
2023 Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
2023 Illustration of the Earth system showing the different “spheres”
2023 Impact of AMOC collapse on UK water supply and arable crops
2023 Impacts of tipping points on different sectors: AMOC, ice sheet, Arctic sea ice loss, permafrost, Amazon dieback
2023 Interactions between established and more speculative tipping systems on a world map
2023 Interactions between tipping systems across scales in space and time.
2023 Interactive role of eutrophication, DOM-export (browning), and warming on lakes
2023 Key biophysical impacts resulting from crossing tipping points in the cryosphere
2023 Locations of reported regime shifts and potential tipping points in the global marine environment
2023 Map of cryosphere systems
2023 Map of drylands vulnerability to predicted changes in aridity for 2100 based on IPCC RCP8.5 scenario (i.e. under assumption of sustained increase in CO2 emissions).
2023 Map of recent coral reef bleaching distribution
2023 Map of studies that use empirical data to look for early warning signals (EWS) of tipping points in climate systems
2023 Observed mass change of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
2023 Overview of projected changes in extreme El Niño events in CMIP6 climate models
2023 Overview over the major oceanic circulation systems in the North Atlantic
2023 Per capita average carbon footprint and its breakdown for selected countries
2023 Permafrost changes under climate change and subsequent effects on environment and society
2023 Positive feedbacks can drive changes in dietary norms
2023 Potential changes in mid-latitude atmospheric circulations, exemplary for the Northern Hemisphere.
2023 Potential tipping systems in ocean and atmosphere circulations
2023 Projected impacts of Amazon forest loss on heat stress risk
2023 Regional differences in climate drivers (long-term trends and extreme events) leading to mangrove impacts
2023 Representation of hysteresis, showing how a system starts in a stable state, then passes a tipping point
2023 Schematic illustrating some key feedbacks related to Arctic sea ice loss
2023 Schematic illustrating some of the key feedbacks in the ice sheet-climate system
2023 Schematic Illustration of Marine Ice Sheet Instability and Marine Ice Cliff Instability
2023 Schematic of a marine food web
2023 Schematic showing key feedbacks that could lead to dryland tipping
2023 Self-sustaining change due to strong positive/amplifyign feedbacks
2023 Social systems negative tipping elements
2023 Strategic interventions for triggering positive tipping points
2023 Summary of evidence for tipping dynamics, key drivers and biophysical impacts in different systems (1)
2023 Summary of evidence for tipping dynamics, key drivers and biophysical impacts in different systems (2)
2023 Summary of evidence for tipping dynamics, key drivers and biophysical impacts in different systems (3)
2023 Summary of evidence for tipping dynamics, key drivers and biophysical impacts in different systems (4)
2023 Summary table of marine environment tipping points
2023 Terminology and some key feedbacks related to mountain glacier retreat
2023 Three types of tipping points
2023 Tipping cascades in coral reefs and small-scale fisheries
2023 Tipping cascades in Lake Chad
2023 Tipping cascades in migration
2023 Tipping cascades in the Amazon rainforest
2023 Tipping cascades in the Arab Spring
2023 Various impact pathways of negative Earth system tipping points: cascading impacts of AMOC collapse, cascading impacts of ice sheet instability.
2023 Visual summary of the concept of positive tipping points
2023 Where are we reaching tipping points in the ocean
1oC - may be enough to trigger climate tipping points
3oC - tipping points may get a lot more dangerous
A lot of economic modeling of climate change assumes there is no tipping point
A recent analysis gives a best estimate for a collapse of the AMOC at a threshold of 4°C, with a range of 1.4°C to 8°C.
Adaptation has a crucial role to play in reducing all three main drivers of climate risk, namely managing vulnerability and exposure of populations as well as managing physical hazards directly.
And climate tipping points may be much more likely than we've thought
Better understanding potential tipping points is critical
Climate models have been unable to adequately incorporate tipping points
Despite progress in mitigation plans over the past two decades, even if announced emissions reduction pledges for 2030 and 2050 are implemented, we would still have 1.8 °C of temperature increase by the end of the century
Even with a stabilisation of the climate at 2°C to 3°C of warming above 1850-1900 levels, ice sheets could be lost irreversibly and almost completely.
Permafrost feedbacks have been overlooked by the IPCC
Permafrost is a critical variable that has been generally overlooked
Recent findings suggest that many climate tipping points can be crossed, with a considerably higher probability and at much lower levels of warming than previously assumed
Subjective estimate of one "tip": 16% to 2oC 56% for more than 4oC
The Amazon could already be tipping toward a non-forest ecosystem
The existence of multiple uncertain tipping points doubles the optimal carbon tax
The risk of climate tipping points implies a key role for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies
Threshold effects can manifest suddenly
Tipping points are the equivalent of driving into a fog without a working speedometer
Tipping points have significant implications for thinking about SCC
With some imagination can include tipping points in the analysis.
E - Abrupt Climate Change
E - Business Climate Risk
I:VisualizingTippingPoints
I:RelatingAGTtoTippingPoints
I:TippingPointsintheHistoricalRecord
6 of 10 wettest days in NYC have occurred since 1972
2011 Infographic - GHG Contributions vs. Climate Vulnerability
2013 Infographic - Weathermageddon Extreme Climate in Canada 2013
2014 CISL_IPCC AR5 - Redrawing the global employment map - infographic
2014 IKEA_Business needs climate change policy leaders - infographic
Could climate change transform Earth into Venus? [Infographic]
Infographic - 6 Rules of using climate models
Infographic - 2013 CEO Study on Sustainability
Infographic - 2013 Significant Climate Anomalies and Events
Infographic - African climate impacts
Infographic - Business response to climate risk
Infographic - Can We Feed 7 Billion People
Infographic - Change in annual average temperature and rainfall
Infographic - Climate change risk assessment basics
Infographic - Climate Change is Unfair - Typhoon Haiyan
Infographic - Connecting the dots
Infographic - Coral Reefs
Infographic - Disastrous Spending Federal disaster relief
Infographic - future climate trends for South Asia
Infographic - Future climate trends for Africa
Infographic - GHG Commitments
Infographic - History of tobacco
Infographic - How Climate Change is Destroying the Earth
Infographic - How Climate Change Will Affect Your Health
Infographic - How scientists fool themselves
Infographic - IPCC Climate Everyones Business
Infographic - No-More-Fish-In-The-Sea
Infographic - Observed change in temperatures and precipitation
Infographic - Risks at 2, 3, 4 Degrees
Infographic - Snapshot of a Warming World
Infographic - The Countries That Are Most (And Least) Prepared For Climate Change
Infographic - The three-tier climate change risk assessment process of CoastAdapt
Infographic - Understanding superannuation and climate risk
Infographic - Understanding the business response to climate change
Infographic - weather is getting more extreme
Infographic - Western Wildlifes and Climate Change
Infographic - Whats at stake for the worlds species
Infographic - Who's Most At Risk From Climate Change? Not The People Who Caused It
Infographic Global-impacts-for-different-emissions-scenarios
Infographic_Impacts of climate change on U.S. public transportation
Infographic_Whats at stake for the worlds forests
Infographic: How Climate Change Will Affect Your Health
IPCC AR5_Transport_Infographic_WEB_EN
IPCC_AR5__Cities on the front line of changing climate
IPCC_AR5__Implications_for_Agriculture__Infographic__WEB_EN
IPCC_AR5__Implications_for_Buildings__Infographic__WEB_EN
IPCC_AR5__Implications_for_Energy__Infographic__WEB_EN
IPCC_AR5__Implications_for_Extractive_and_Primary_Industries__Infographic_WEB__EN
IPCC_AR5__Implications_for_Fisheries_and_Aquaculture__Infographic__WEB_EN
IPCC_AR5__Implications_for_Investors__Infographic__WEB_EN
IPCC_AR5_Defence_Infographic_WEB_EN__
IPCC_AR5_Implications for Tourism Infographic
Oregon Health Authority_Oregon Climate and Health Infographic
Preparing Your Home For A Natural Disaster [infographic]
Rising temperatures in New York City
Syria’s climate-fueled conflict, in one stunning comic strip
I:AcceleratingClimateChange
I:IPCCUnderestimationofRisk
I:SystemicClimateRisk (Deep Dive)
S - 100% Renewable Energy Transition
S - Abrupt Climate Change
S - Catastrophic Risk Decision-Making
S - Climate Change Fingerprint to Date
S - Climate Change Systemic Risk
S - Climate Change Tipping Points
S - Climate Emergency Sources
S - Climate Engineering Sources
S - Climate Uncertainties Unknowns
S - Dangerous Climate Impacts
S - Decision-making Under Uncertainty
S - Extreme Event Impacts
S - Fat and Long Tail Risks of Climate Change
S - Probabilistic Decision-Making
S - Worst Case Climate Change
N - 100% Renewable Future
N - Accelerating/Worsening Climate Change
N - Changing Climate Probabilities
N - Climate Change Tipping Points
N - Fat and Long Tail Risks From Climate Change
N - IPCC 1.5 Degrees Report
N - Systemic Climate Risk
T - Climate Emergency Networks
T - Extreme Events Network
V - Abrupt Change/Climate Disruption
V - Systemic Climate Risk
E - 1 Degree 350 ppm Scenario
E - 2 Degree 450 PPM Pathway
E - 100% Renewable Transition
E - Business Risk Assessment
E - Business Risk Overviews
E - Business Risk Perception
E - Business Risk Rankings
E - Business Risks by Types
E - Business Value at Risk
E - Carbon Intensity and Business Risk
E - Changing Probability Distributions
E - Climate Change Fingerprint
E - Climate Emergency Extracts
E - Climate Impacts/Risks by Sector
E - Climate Response Tipping Points
E - Climate Vulnerability
E - Extreme Event Impacts
E - Food Security Impacts
E - Forecasted Climate Impacts
E - Hypothesized Business Impacts
E - Impact Specific Economics
E - Impacts by Business Sector
E - Impacts by Time Period
E - Long Tail Risk Impacts
E - Manifestations of climate risk
E - Perceptions and Positions re Climate Risk
E - Systemic Climate Risk
E - Underestimating Climate Risks
E - Worst Case Climate Change
What is the likelihood of abrupt climate change?
What is the timeframe for talking about abrupt climate change?
2013/11 Fallacies of risk
For a useful visual image of cascading effects, take a look at the attached dominoes video
4page-companion-brochure.pdf (applicationpdf Object)
200X Are we looking at climate risk backward?
200X Risk and opportunity - just the flip side of the same coin?
1920-2100 (2017) A massive increase in "nuisance flooding" around the U.S.
2003 The salinity of oceans is decreasing
2007 Ceres good climate change governance summar
2007 How climate change could affect companies' financial statements (part 1)
2007 Mindmap - Climate impacts
2008 Autodesk's approach to GHG Target Setting
2008 The Four Steps of C-FACT
2009 A Planet in Ecological Debt
2009 Climate change as a strategic issue for U.S. Business
2009 Snapshot of ocean acidification
2009 The new "business as usual" of extreme events
2010 1. What are companies accomplishing with carbon management plans?
2010 A Chief Sustainability Officer is the best way to fix carbon governance shortfall3
2010 Ability of ocean organizations to calcify, related to stabilized CO2 concentrations
2010 AU Survey results - adaptation activities reported by respondents
2010 AU Survey results - how important to mitigate or adapt for CC?
2010 AU Survey results - is adaptation a cost or a benefit?
2010 AU Survey results - Mitigation priority areas
2010 AU Survey results - motivation for adaptation activitiy
2010 Carbon Emissions vs. Vulnerability to Climate Change by Country
2010 Companies need to move toward integrated carbon management systems
2010 Different process changes are needed in different departments
2010 E&Y's climate management triangle
2010 Flawed sustainability governance stalls climate management
2010 Global survey of Port administrators
2010 The role of the Chief Sustainability Officer should be unique
2010 There are 3 phases of carbon management 2010-2050
2010 There's a bunch of physical science we're worried about, but can't model well
2010 What are the key data considerations in carbon management?
2010 What has to change to effectively manage carbon emissions
2010 What is really needed to implement a business transformation program?
2010 What's part of a Carbon Management Framework?
2010 When will the lack of a carbon management plan be a material problem?
2010 Which climate change opportunities are companies pursuing?
2011 But the IPCC's 2009 analysis paints a quick different (riskier) picture
2011 Premature deaths avoided in 2030 due to black carbon control
2011 Scientific perception of risk across the board
2011 The case for business risk management
2011 The expansion of PAT since 1950 is astounding
2011 Where do respondents get their information? 0-10, Never to Always scale
2012 A story of two companies
2012 Business risks involve complex webs of variables
2012 Caterpillar - An example of contradictory positioning
2012 Company scores - climate attitudes - October 2015
2012 Conoc-Phillips - An example of contradictory positioning
2012 Corporate affiliations with pro- and con- climate entities can get complex
2012 Did companies change their risk processes in response to the 2011 study?
2012 DTE - An example of contradictory positioning
2012 Exxon - An example of contradictory positioning
2012 Global fisheries production 1950-2010
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Headings - Extracted Materials
E - Climate Change Tipping Points
Extracted Graphics | Extracted Ideas
Evaluating the Near-Term Relevance of Climate Change Tipping Points