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2 Degrees Target TOC
I:1.5oCvs2oC
I:100%RenewableEnergy
I:2oCScenarioPlanning
I:2oCTargetInvesting
I:BoundingCarbonPrices
I:CarbonPricingfor2oC
I:ClimateRiskStressTesting
I:DDPDeepDecarbonizationPathways
I:DecisionmakingUnderUncertainty (Deep Dive)
I:EmissionsPathwaysfor2oC
I:EnergyDemandandGenerationMixfor2oC
I:GNDGreenNewDeal
I:GreenJobs
I:ImplicitCarbonPricing
I:LowCarbonTransitionEmissionsPathways
I:MarketTransformationfor2oC
I:NegativeEmissionsfor2oC
I:NETNegativeEmissionsTechnologies
I:Pathwaysto2020s-2030s
I:Pathwaysto2050
I:PolicyTransitionfor2oC
I:ScenarioPlanningBackground
I:ScenarioPlanningforClimateChange (Deep Dive)
I:ScenarioPlanningGeneral (Deep Dive)
I:ScenarioPlanningToolsandDataSources
I:TCFD2DegreeScenario
I:TechnologyInnovationinScenarioPlanning
I:WartimeMobilization
S - 2 Degree Target
S - 100% Renewable Energy Transition
S - Carbon Pricing Futures
S - Climate Change Scenario Planning
S - Climate Change Scenarios
S - Climate Scenario Variables
S - Negative Emissions
S - Probabilistic Decision-Making
S - Scenario Planning
S - SocioEconomic Pathways
N - 2 Degree Target
N - 100% Renewable Future
N - Carbon Price Forecasting
N - Carbon Pricing Impacts
V - 2 Degree Target
E - 2 Degree 450 PPM Pathway
E - 2020 - 2030 Low Carbon Pathways
E - 2050 Emissions Pathways
E - 2100 Pathways
E - Achieving the 2 Degree target
E - Carbon Negative
E - Changing Probability Distributions
E - Economics of 2 Degree Target
E - Scenario Triggers
E - Speed of Technology Diffusion
Risks - Societal TOC
I:AcceleratingClimateChange
I:IPCCUnderestimationofRisk
I:SystemicClimateRisk (Deep Dive)
S - 1.5oC Target
S - 1.5 vs 2.0 Degrees
S - 100% Renewable Energy Transition
S - Abrupt Climate Change
S - Catastrophic Risk Decision-Making
S - Climate Change Fingerprint to Date
S - Climate Change Systemic Risk
S - Climate Change Tipping Points
S - Climate Emergency Sources
S - Climate Engineering Sources
S - Climate Sensitivity
S - Climate Uncertainties Unknowns
S - Dangerous Climate Impacts
S - Decision-making Under Uncertainty
S - Extreme Event Impacts
S - Fat and Long Tail Risks of Climate Change
S - Human Extinction
S - Impact Attribution
S - Probabilistic Decision-Making
S - Systemic Risk
S - Worst Case Climate Change
N - 1.5oC Target
N - 100% Renewable Future
N - Accelerating/Worsening Climate Change
N - Changing Climate Probabilities
N - Climate Change Tipping Points
N - Climate Emergency
N - Climate Sensitivity
N - Extreme Events
N - Fat and Long Tail Risks From Climate Change
N - Human Extinction
N - IPCC 1.5 Degrees Report
N - Systemic Climate Risk
T - Climate Emergency Networks
T - Extreme Events Network
T - Risk Assessment
T - Systemic Risk
V - Abrupt Change/Climate Disruption
V - Climate Emergency
V - Extreme Events
V - Systemic Climate Risk
E - 1.5 Degree Target
E - 1 Degree 350 ppm Scenario
E - 2 Degree 450 PPM Pathway
E - 3-4 Degree Scenario
E - 100% Renewable Transition
E - Changing Probability Distributions
E - Climate Change Tipping Points
E - Climate Emergency Extracts
E - Climate Sensitivity
E - Food Security Impacts
E - Security and Climate
E - Systemic Climate Risk
E - Underestimating Climate Risks
E - Worst Case Climate Change
Under-Estimated Risk TOC
I:AcceleratingClimateChange
I:ClimateChangeasThreatMultiplier
I:IndirectImpactsofClimateChange
I:IPCCUnderestimationofRisk
I:SystemicClimateRisk (Deep Dive)
S - Abrupt Climate Change
S - Catastrophic Risk Decision-Making
S - Climate Change Systemic Risk
S - Climate Emergency Sources
S - Climate Sensitivity
S - Climate Uncertainties Unknowns
S - Conflict and Climate Change
S - Decision-making Under Uncertainty
S - Fat and Long Tail Risks of Climate Change
S - Systemic Risk
S - Worst Case Climate Change
N - Accelerating/Worsening Climate Change
N - Climate and Security
N - Climate Change Tipping Points
N - Climate Sensitivity
N - Fat and Long Tail Risks From Climate Change
T - Risk Assessment
V - Climate and Security
E - Changing Probability Distributions
E - Underestimating Climate Risks
Worst Case Climate Change TOC
I:Premortems
I:1.5oCTarget
I:AbruptClimateChange
I:AcceleratedIceFreeArctic
I:AcceleratingClimateChange
I:AdaptationLimits
I:BadLuckwithLongTailRiskEvents
I:BlackSwansofClimateChange
I:BrandRisk
I:BusinessActingTooEarlyvsTooLate
I:BusinessDisruptionasBusinessRisk
I:CarbonPricingfor2oC
I:ChangingReturnPeriods
I:ClimateasThreatMultiplier
I:ClimateDoubt
I:ClimateFeedbacks
I:ClimateLiability
I:ClimatePolicyasBusinessRisk
I:ClimateRiskMateriality
I:ClimateSensitivityUnderestimated
I:ClimateUncertaintyasRisk
I:CloudRelatedWarmingUnderestimated
I:ConflictOverArcticResources
I:DangerousClimateChange (Deep Dive)
I:DeepAdaptation (Deep Dive)
I:DivestmentasMaterial
I:Economic/SocialCollapseNarrative
I:EmissionsIntensityasInvestmentRisk
I:EnvironmentalMigrants
I:ExceedanceCurves
I:FoodSystemShocks
I:IndirectImpactsasBusinessRisk
I:InevitablePolicyResponse
I:InvestorResponseasBusinessRisk
I:LandUseandOceanCO2SinksSaturate
I:Litigation/LiabilityasBusinessRisk
I:LowCarbonTransitionasInvestmentRisk
I:MarketTransformationasBusinessRisk
I:OperationalRisk
I:PermafrostMethaneReleasesUnderestimated
I:PhysicalImpactsasBusinessRisk
I:PlanetaryBoundaries (Deep Dive)
I:PoliticalPolarization
I:RiskDisclosureasBusinessRisk
I:RunawayClimateChange
I:SCCasCarbonPrice
I:ScenarioPlanningGeneral (Deep Dive)
I:SocialLicensetoOperateasBusinessRisk
I:SocietalCollapse
I:SupplyChainDisruptionasBusinessRisk
I:SystemicClimateRisk (Deep Dive)
I:SystemicRiskasBusinessRisk
I:SystemicRiskMateriality
I:UnacceptableClimateChange
I:UncertaintyasRisk
I:UnderestimatedSLR
I:UnderseaMethaneReleasesUnderestimated
I:UnknownUnknownsofClimateChange
S - Climate Change Systemic Risk
S - Economic Futures
S - Probabilistic Decision-Making
S - Societal Futures
S - Worst Case Climate Change
N - Limits to Growth
N - Systemic Climate Risk
N - Worst Case Climate Change
T - Systemic Risk
E - 2020 - 2030 Low Carbon Pathways
E - 2050 Emissions Pathways
E - Changing Probability Distributions
E - Climate Feedbacks
E - Systemic Risk
E - Worst Case Climate Change
E - Extreme Event Impacts
2013 Infographic - Weathermageddon Extreme Climate in Canada 2013
Infographic - Extreme weather and climate change
Infographic - the costs of climate change
E - Changing Probability Distributions
E - Climate Change and Hurricanes
E - Drought Impacts
E - Extreme Event Costs
E - Fire Impacts
E - Flood Impacts
E - Shifting Extremes
2015/2 2015 is an important year for Climate Change
2018/10 Among the Ruins of Mexico Beach Stands One House, Built ‘for the Big One’
0oC - 5oC extreme event impacts
2000-2050 (2012) Return frequency declining for major hurricanes
2009 Increases in wind damage are not linear to wind speed
2009 Temperatures Will Rise - Australia as an Example
2009 The new "business as usual" of extreme events
2010 Relating sea level rise to storm return time for NYC
2011 10 Warmest Years on Record
2011 Aggregated climate change index shows future change relative to current variability
2011 US natural disaster risk map
2011 Very different sensitivities to risk
2012 Confidence in projecting direction and magnitude of some extremes grows as timeframe increases
2012 extreme weather events
2012 Interpreting global cyclone projections to risk management in the Caribbean
2012 Interpreting global drought projections to risk management in the Sahel
2012 Interpreting global heat wave projections to risk management in Europe
2012 Models clearly project changes in heat extreme return periods (see NA detail)
2012 Models clearly project precipitation extreme impact return periods over time (see NA detail)
2012 Natural disasters
2012 Significant weather related losses of 2011
2013 25 Most Costly Worldwide Insurance Disasters 1970-2012
2014/3 Heavy downpours more intense, frequent in a warmer world
2014 Probability distribution of annual increase in property damage assuming no change in hurricane activity
2015 Global probability of exceeding 99th extremes with temperature increase
2015 Probability of extreme precipitation events under warming
2016 Billion-dollar weather events 1980 2015
2018 Modeling flood risk over time
2018 Tropical cyclones getting stronger
2019 Significant climate anomalies and events in 2019
2019 Visualizing the December, 2019 European heat wave
2020 Top 20 largest California wildfires 1932-2020
2021 Distribution of reported disasters 1970 - 2019
2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in Africa 1970 - 2019
2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in Asia 1970 - 2019
2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in Europe 1970 - 2019
2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in LDCs 1970 - 2019
2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in North American and Caribbean 1970 - 2019
2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) 1970 - 2019
2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in South America 1970 - 2019
2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in South West Pacific 1970 - 2019
2030-2050 (2020) Lethal heat wave probabilities in India
2030-2050 (2020) Lethal heat wave probability
2030-2050 (2020) Probability of drought across Africa
2030-2050 (2020) Probability of drought in Meditteranean
2030-2050 Change in global drought likelihood
2040 (2020) Increased likelihood of today’s 100-year hurricanes
2100 (2012) Expected change in regional extreme temperatures (degrees and SDs)
2100 (2012) Expected regional temperature change (degrees and SDs)
2100 (2012) Percentage of expected to exceed 3, 4, and 5 SDs from current temperatures
Alaskan Fires up
An average of 30 ft of beach lost in NJ
Anticipated damage from hurricane intensification.
Arctic Ice - Record Low Maximum
Areas burned up dramatically
Billion Dollar Weather Disasters 1980-2010 economic damage caused by weather vulnerability
Climate change implications for the Rio Grande
Coastal infrastructure damaged
Coming up with a baseline for extreme event damages, now and 2100
Companies already feeling water impacts
costs of recent extreme weather events
Current extremes like 2003 heat wave point to future climate change impacts
Days Above 95 degrees by 2100
Disaster relief costs in the U.S. are increasing
Dispersion of New Orleans residents after Hurricane Katrina
Drought and drought-related costs in the U.S. are increasing
Electrical service lost
Extreme weather metrics
Extreme weather on the risk
Heavy Downpours Increasing
Hurricane Ike
Hurricane Power North Atlantic
Hurricane Sandy impacts
Hurricanes may get stronger
Initial probability assessment carried out by the National Hurricane Center
IPCC has looked at likelihood of different kinds of extreme events
Loss events worldwide 2013
Mapping countries' cost vs. population affected by extreme events
Mitigation strategies for water extremes not yet in place
More U.S. 1" Downpours
More U.S. 2" Downpours
More U.S. 3" Downpours
Munich Re Climate Events
Normalization studies of disaster loss recordds
Numbers of weather-related loss events to 2014
Potential impacts of water extremes on business operations
Precipitation anomalies in 2010
Probability of drought during this century under BAU emissions
Projected temperature change of hottest and coldest days
Projecting net extreme event damages in 2100
Record setting ocean heat content linked to Harvey's epic rains
Regional Changes in Climate Extremes
Relationship of lightning insurance claims to temperature
Relative probability of extremes compared to pre-industrial
Sea surface temperatures August 2017
Shifting global occurrences of extreme events
Significant (>$1 blliion) weather events in North America 1993 - 2012
Significant climate anomalies in 2014
The European heat wave of 2003
The main reason that natural disaster costs have increased so significantly
There are more man-made than natural catastrophers
Total water levels for selected extreme events in the U.S.
Transportation infrastructure damaged
Underground systems flooded
We're setting more records for warm days than cold days
Weather events are the big source of insured catastrophe losses
WEF storms profile
Changes in climate extremes are more important than changes in averages
E - Impacts Top Level
6 of 10 wettest days in NYC have occurred since 1972
2011 Infographic - GHG Contributions vs. Climate Vulnerability
2013 Infographic - Weathermageddon Extreme Climate in Canada 2013
Could climate change transform Earth into Venus? [Infographic]
Infographic - 2013 Significant Climate Anomalies and Events
Infographic - African climate impacts
Infographic - Can We Feed 7 Billion People
Infographic - Change in annual average temperature and rainfall
Infographic - Climate Change is Unfair - Typhoon Haiyan
Infographic - Connecting the dots
Infographic - Coral Reefs
Infographic - Disastrous Spending Federal disaster relief
Infographic - future climate trends for South Asia
Infographic - Future climate trends for Africa
Infographic - History of tobacco
Infographic - How Climate Change is Destroying the Earth
Infographic - How Climate Change Will Affect Your Health
Infographic - No-More-Fish-In-The-Sea
Infographic - Observed change in temperatures and precipitation
Infographic - Risks at 2, 3, 4 Degrees
Infographic - Snapshot of a Warming World
Infographic - The Countries That Are Most (And Least) Prepared For Climate Change
Infographic - weather is getting more extreme
Infographic - Western Wildlifes and Climate Change
Infographic - Whats at stake for the worlds species
Infographic - Who's Most At Risk From Climate Change? Not The People Who Caused It
Infographic Global-impacts-for-different-emissions-scenarios
Infographic_Impacts of climate change on U.S. public transportation
Infographic_Whats at stake for the worlds forests
Infographic: How Climate Change Will Affect Your Health
Oregon Health Authority_Oregon Climate and Health Infographic
Preparing Your Home For A Natural Disaster [infographic]
Rising temperatures in New York City
Syria’s climate-fueled conflict, in one stunning comic strip
E - Changing Probability Distributions
E - Climate Change Tipping Points
E - Climate Vulnerability
E - Forecasted Climate Impacts
E - Impact Specific Economics
E - Impacts by Business Sector
E - Impacts by Degree
E - Impacts by Geography
E - Impacts by Time Period
E - Impacts by Type
E - Indirect Impacts
E - Long Tail Risk Impacts
E - Manifestations of climate risk
4page-companion-brochure.pdf (applicationpdf Object)
1920-2100 (2017) A massive increase in "nuisance flooding" around the U.S.
2007 Mindmap - Climate impacts
2009 Snapshot of ocean acidification
2010 Ability of ocean organizations to calcify, related to stabilized CO2 concentrations
2010 Carbon Emissions vs. Vulnerability to Climate Change by Country
2011 Premature deaths avoided in 2030 due to black carbon control
2012 Interpreting global cyclone projections to risk management in the Caribbean
2012 Interpreting global drought projections to risk management in the Sahel
2012 Interpreting global heat wave projections to risk management in Europe
2014 Projected change in property crime
2014 Projected change in violent crime rates
2014 State level per capita direct costs
2014 The arctic open for commerce
2015 Automotive
2015 Economic impact of climate change on the world
2016 1/3 of global land surface in drought in 2015
2016 2015 was warmest year for second year in a row
2016 Arctic fisheries are contracting significantly
2016 Arctic sea ice hit "lowest maximum extent" in 2015
2016 Arctic warming at double the global rate
2016 Extreme heat was widespread in in 2015
2016 Glaciers continuing to lose ice, permafrost continuing to warm
2016 Greenland ice sheet had many more melt days in 2015
2016 International dimensions of climate risk
2016 Key GHGs reached new highs in 2015
2016 Ocean levels, surface temperatures, and heat all anomalously high in 2015
2016 Remember what this report is and is not
2016 Sea levels responded significantly to El Nino
2016 UK risks and opportunities by land use type
2017 'Climate risks depend on cumulative emissions
2018 Fastest Growing Cities are Most Vulnerable to Climate Change
2018 The risks of climate change
2020 Environmental Risks' Rise to Global Dominance
2021 Change in mean precipitation and soil moisture under different levels of warming
2021 Contribution to warming under 5 scenarios
2021 Distribution of warming under different global averages
2021 Effectiveness of sinks declines as emissions increase
2021 Estimated remaining carbon budgets for target probabilities
2021 Every ton contributes to warming basically linearly
2021 Global mean sea level change in 2300 under 2 scenarios
2021 Global mean sea level rise under 5 scenarios
2021 Global surface temperature change under 5 scenarios
2021 Human influences are warming the climate at a rate unprecedented in at least 2000 years
2021 Increase in drought conditions
2021 Increase in heavy precipitation since 1950’s
2021 Increase in hot extremes since 1950’s
2021 Number of regions likely to experience changes in climatic impact-drivers
2021 Ocean acidification under 5 scenarios
2021 Precipitation and drought extremes will become more frequent
2021 Relative contributions to warming 2010-2019
2021 September Arctic sea ice under 5 scenarios
2021 Temperature extremes will get much more frequent
2021 Time and uncertainty of warming to 2100
2021 Warming to 2100 under 5 scenarios
Acceptable and unacceptable risk
Africa
And can be compared to distribution of rain-fed agriculture
Annual average temperature and economic production
Asia
Australasia
Central and South America
Changing risks of venomous snakebite
Climate change in Asia and the Pacific
Climate change will impact coastal communities in various ways
Climate change: how a warming world is a threat to our food supplies
Climate disaster events in South Asia
costs of recent extreme weather events
Differences in model forecasts of tropical cyclone frequency expressed as a percent of present day levels
Economic dependence on fossil fuel exports
Energy sector vulnerabilities to climate change - 2
Europe
Examples of major climate impacts on selected sectors
Examples of water-driven business impacts 2013-2016
Figure SPM.3
Figure SPM.6b
Figure SPM.7.
Figure SPM.9.
Future precipitation changes will have large regional differences
General ways energy systems can be affected
Global damage estimate from non-linear impacts of temperature
Graphic - How big a change are we talking about?
Graphic of 0-5 degree changes in Canada
House alone after Hurricane Ike
If we could turn back the clock
Impact on cooling and heating days very regionally different
Impacts 1- 11 Characterized
Impacts 12-22 Characterized
Impacts 23-31 Characterized
Impacts 32-37 Characterized
Infographic - Fire Risk in America
Integration of crop models and economic model
Irreversibility of climate impacts
Leading causes of death
Linking climate change to health outcomes
Lots of studies to support damages from acidification
Mapping out highest risk and lowest vulnerability countries
Marine species ability to shift range
Natural disasters have major impact on low-income countries
Notable climate anomalies and events in 2016
Polar Regions
Powerplants will face reductions in usable capacity
Projected changes in precipitation intensity
Projected changes in strong non tropical storms
Projected difference in Dry days for Africa to 2050's
Projected forest changes under different climate forecasts - with and without forest suppression
Relationship between sea surface temp and hurricane power
Relative climate and policy uncertainties, examples
Relative impact of climate change on GDPs
River temperatures will increase significantly by 2080's
Ruffed Grouse Range over time
Sample graphic for range change based on alternative models
Scenario 1 - Chai Time
Scenario 2 - Storm in a Teacup
Scenario 3 - Green leaf
Scenario 4 - Rebrewed
The implications of rising temperatures are bad for agriculture
Those who contribute least will be impacted most
Track of 1991 "Perfect Storm"
U.S. Natural catastrophes in 2016
We can't assume uncertainty is modest and manageable
WEF biodiversity profile
WEF climate change profile
Where hail sizes will increase
Climate responding faster than expected
Evidence we're underestimating rates of change
Some of the major impacts
Some risk analyses are trying to look at nearer-term risk
Spring 2012 in U.S. warmest on record (video)
2016 How Many Gigatons of CO2? Infographic
E - Probabilistic Decision-Making
E - Changing Probability Distributions
Probabilistic and discrete SLR estimates complement each other
I:ChangingProbabilityDistributions
Headings - Extracted Materials
E - Changing Probability Distributions
Extracted Graphics | Extracted Ideas
E - Changing Return Periods
E - Climate Change Fingerprint
E - Communicating shifting extremes
E - Exceedance Curves
E - Forecasted Probabilities
Small average changes in temperature can hide dramatic changes at extremes
1oC - Socioeconomic impacts of climate change already manifesting
1900-2010 (2011) Anomalies are clearly trending towards hot and very hot temperatures
1900-2010 (2011) U.S. temperature anomalies not nearly as clear as other parts of the world
1950-2010 (2011) Fraction of surface area that's cold or hot shifting significantly
1950-2010 (2011) One can see a systematic warming signal in a number of regions
1950-2010 (2011) The extreme heat tail of anomalies has shifted by 1 SD over 3 decades
1950-2010 (2011) We can track how annual anomalies diverge in terms of SDs from the baseline
1950-2011 (2011) The fraction of land area with very high extremes is increasing
1955-2007 (2011) We can track how surface temperatures are changing over time
1955-2011 (2011) The proportion of surface area displaying >3 SDs is growing significantly
2009 Choosing the right strategy in probability space
2009 Risk of temperature directly related to concentrations, and varies widely over time
2010 In probability distributions, modes and means and uncertainty are important
2010 rainfall anomaly against future probability distributions
2012 Extreme events are growing in probability faster than projected by the models
2012 Ratio of high to low records in the U.S. 1950's to 2000's
2013 Probability of catastrophe by treatment
2013 temperatures against future probability distribution
2015 The shock scenario
2016 Annual mean surface temperature anomaly
2016 Changing likelihood of extreme events
2016 Comparison of El Nino strength and temperature trend
2016 Decadal mean surface temperature anomaly
2016 Global surface temperature, annual and running mean
2016 ocean temperature anomaly against future probability distribution
2017 It's all about probabilities
2019 A cumulative distribution function (CDF) transforms a probability distribution into an exceedance curve from 0 to 100%. A complementary CDF (CCDF) does the reverse, from 100% to 0%
2030-2050 (2020) Risk of >15% global yield failure increases 2x and 5x
2040 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge
2040 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA
2050 (2020) Economic impact of extreme flood could be 5-10 times greater than today
2060 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge
2060 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA
2080 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge
2080 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA
2100 (2013) Median Projected Change in 1% Annual Flood Discharge
2100 (2013) Median Projected Change in Flood Hazard Parameter
2100 (2013) Median Projected Change in SFHA for 2100
2100 (2013) Monte Carlo Distribution for 1% Annual Flood Discharge change
Abnormal markets - stock exchange not normally distributed
Attribution of changing water scarcity to climate and population
b. By increasing variability with the existing mean
Beta distribution
Brownian motion and stock prices - normal distributions
CCDF complementary cumulative probability function
Change in exceedance probability for normally distributed data
Change in risk of occurrence due to a trend in the mean
Changing global water scarcity risk levels
Changing likelihood of Australian extreme events
Changing likelihood of flooding
Changing temperature probabilities in Colorado River Basin
Conceptual diagram of shifting probabilities
Does climate fit into normal distribution? Evidence that it does not
Effect of mitigation on global emergence in drivers of ecosystem stress
End-century project flow reductions Colorado River Basin
Expected extremes based on linear change in SD
Future warming projections constrasting model vs. paleo estimates
Gamma distribution
Geographic variation in attribution variables
Increase in probability of extremes
It's a Matter of Risk and Probabiliy
Lognormal distribution
Mapped Amplification Factors
Mapping flood levels
Mid-century projected flow reductions Colorado River Basin
Moscow July Anomalies
Normal/Gaussian distribution
Northwest Atlantic cod harvest
Power law = better fit for stock extremes
Probability distribution with varying uncertainty around the same mean
Probability distribution with varying uncertainty around the same mode
Reconstructed global mean temperatures
Redrawing this figure using a ratio scale
Regional variation in water scarcity
Responding to fire risks: unlikely but we buy fire insurance
SAT Surface Air Temperature
Sensitivity of global SAT to radiative forcing anomalies
Shifting distribution of temperature anomalies in the Northern hemisphere, winter and summer
SST Sea Surface Temperature
Stock market performance on a ratio scale
Storylines used for RCPs and SSPs
The "tails" of normal and fat-tailed distribution
The 2003 European heat wave against the normal distribution
The distribution of outcomes of rolling 10 dice at once
The distribution of outcomes of rolling two dice
The more dice, the closer you get to a "normal" distribution
The normal probability curve
Three possible outcomes in terms of probability shifts
understanding shifts in extremes due to climate change
Variations in severity of water scarcity
Weibull distribution
Why uncertainty increases risk
2020-2050 (2020) Increase in long tail risk of hurricane damages in Florida
And climate tipping points may be much more likely than we've thought
And there's a clear analogy to abrupt climate change
Precautionary principle: making decisions without probabilities sensible, but don't take to extremes
What causes extreme events in nature and in finance
2 Degrees Target TOC
I:1.5oCvs2oC
I:100%RenewableEnergy
I:2oCScenarioPlanning
I:2oCTargetInvesting
I:BoundingCarbonPrices
I:CarbonPricingfor2oC
I:ClimateRiskStressTesting
I:DDPDeepDecarbonizationPathways
I:DecisionmakingUnderUncertainty (Deep Dive)
I:EmissionsPathwaysfor2oC
I:EnergyDemandandGenerationMixfor2oC
I:GNDGreenNewDeal
I:GreenJobs
I:ImplicitCarbonPricing
I:LowCarbonTransitionEmissionsPathways
I:MarketTransformationfor2oC
I:NegativeEmissionsfor2oC
I:NETNegativeEmissionsTechnologies
I:Pathwaysto2020s-2030s
I:Pathwaysto2050
I:PolicyTransitionfor2oC
I:ScenarioPlanningBackground
I:ScenarioPlanningforClimateChange (Deep Dive)
I:ScenarioPlanningGeneral (Deep Dive)
I:ScenarioPlanningToolsandDataSources
I:TCFD2DegreeScenario
I:TechnologyInnovationinScenarioPlanning
I:WartimeMobilization
S - 2 Degree Target
S - 100% Renewable Energy Transition
S - Carbon Pricing Futures
S - Climate Change Scenario Planning
S - Climate Change Scenarios
S - Climate Scenario Variables
S - Negative Emissions
S - Probabilistic Decision-Making
S - Scenario Planning
S - SocioEconomic Pathways
N - 2 Degree Target
N - 100% Renewable Future
N - Carbon Price Forecasting
N - Carbon Pricing Impacts
V - 2 Degree Target
E - 2 Degree 450 PPM Pathway
E - 2020 - 2030 Low Carbon Pathways
E - 2050 Emissions Pathways
E - 2100 Pathways
E - Achieving the 2 Degree target
E - Carbon Negative
E - Changing Probability Distributions
E - Economics of 2 Degree Target
E - Scenario Triggers
E - Speed of Technology Diffusion
Risks - Societal TOC
I:AcceleratingClimateChange
I:IPCCUnderestimationofRisk
I:SystemicClimateRisk (Deep Dive)
S - 1.5oC Target
S - 1.5 vs 2.0 Degrees
S - 100% Renewable Energy Transition
S - Abrupt Climate Change
S - Catastrophic Risk Decision-Making
S - Climate Change Fingerprint to Date
S - Climate Change Systemic Risk
S - Climate Change Tipping Points
S - Climate Emergency Sources
S - Climate Engineering Sources
S - Climate Sensitivity
S - Climate Uncertainties Unknowns
S - Dangerous Climate Impacts
S - Decision-making Under Uncertainty
S - Extreme Event Impacts
S - Fat and Long Tail Risks of Climate Change
S - Human Extinction
S - Impact Attribution
S - Probabilistic Decision-Making
S - Systemic Risk
S - Worst Case Climate Change
N - 1.5oC Target
N - 100% Renewable Future
N - Accelerating/Worsening Climate Change
N - Changing Climate Probabilities
N - Climate Change Tipping Points
N - Climate Emergency
N - Climate Sensitivity
N - Extreme Events
N - Fat and Long Tail Risks From Climate Change
N - Human Extinction
N - IPCC 1.5 Degrees Report
N - Systemic Climate Risk
T - Climate Emergency Networks
T - Extreme Events Network
T - Risk Assessment
T - Systemic Risk
V - Abrupt Change/Climate Disruption
V - Climate Emergency
V - Extreme Events
V - Systemic Climate Risk
E - 1.5 Degree Target
E - 1 Degree 350 ppm Scenario
E - 2 Degree 450 PPM Pathway
E - 3-4 Degree Scenario
E - 100% Renewable Transition
E - Changing Probability Distributions
E - Climate Change Tipping Points
E - Climate Emergency Extracts
E - Climate Sensitivity
E - Food Security Impacts
E - Security and Climate
E - Systemic Climate Risk
E - Underestimating Climate Risks
E - Worst Case Climate Change
Under-Estimated Risk TOC
I:AcceleratingClimateChange
I:ClimateChangeasThreatMultiplier
I:IndirectImpactsofClimateChange
I:IPCCUnderestimationofRisk
I:SystemicClimateRisk (Deep Dive)
S - Abrupt Climate Change
S - Catastrophic Risk Decision-Making
S - Climate Change Systemic Risk
S - Climate Emergency Sources
S - Climate Sensitivity
S - Climate Uncertainties Unknowns
S - Conflict and Climate Change
S - Decision-making Under Uncertainty
S - Fat and Long Tail Risks of Climate Change
S - Systemic Risk
S - Worst Case Climate Change
N - Accelerating/Worsening Climate Change
N - Climate and Security
N - Climate Change Tipping Points
N - Climate Sensitivity
N - Fat and Long Tail Risks From Climate Change
T - Risk Assessment
V - Climate and Security
E - Changing Probability Distributions
E - Underestimating Climate Risks
Worst Case Climate Change TOC
I:Premortems
I:1.5oCTarget
I:AbruptClimateChange
I:AcceleratedIceFreeArctic
I:AcceleratingClimateChange
I:AdaptationLimits
I:BadLuckwithLongTailRiskEvents
I:BlackSwansofClimateChange
I:BrandRisk
I:BusinessActingTooEarlyvsTooLate
I:BusinessDisruptionasBusinessRisk
I:CarbonPricingfor2oC
I:ChangingReturnPeriods
I:ClimateasThreatMultiplier
I:ClimateDoubt
I:ClimateFeedbacks
I:ClimateLiability
I:ClimatePolicyasBusinessRisk
I:ClimateRiskMateriality
I:ClimateSensitivityUnderestimated
I:ClimateUncertaintyasRisk
I:CloudRelatedWarmingUnderestimated
I:ConflictOverArcticResources
I:DangerousClimateChange (Deep Dive)
I:DeepAdaptation (Deep Dive)
I:DivestmentasMaterial
I:Economic/SocialCollapseNarrative
I:EmissionsIntensityasInvestmentRisk
I:EnvironmentalMigrants
I:ExceedanceCurves
I:FoodSystemShocks
I:IndirectImpactsasBusinessRisk
I:InevitablePolicyResponse
I:InvestorResponseasBusinessRisk
I:LandUseandOceanCO2SinksSaturate
I:Litigation/LiabilityasBusinessRisk
I:LowCarbonTransitionasInvestmentRisk
I:MarketTransformationasBusinessRisk
I:OperationalRisk
I:PermafrostMethaneReleasesUnderestimated
I:PhysicalImpactsasBusinessRisk
I:PlanetaryBoundaries (Deep Dive)
I:PoliticalPolarization
I:RiskDisclosureasBusinessRisk
I:RunawayClimateChange
I:SCCasCarbonPrice
I:ScenarioPlanningGeneral (Deep Dive)
I:SocialLicensetoOperateasBusinessRisk
I:SocietalCollapse
I:SupplyChainDisruptionasBusinessRisk
I:SystemicClimateRisk (Deep Dive)
I:SystemicRiskasBusinessRisk
I:SystemicRiskMateriality
I:UnacceptableClimateChange
I:UncertaintyasRisk
I:UnderestimatedSLR
I:UnderseaMethaneReleasesUnderestimated
I:UnknownUnknownsofClimateChange
S - Climate Change Systemic Risk
S - Economic Futures
S - Probabilistic Decision-Making
S - Societal Futures
S - Worst Case Climate Change
N - Limits to Growth
N - Systemic Climate Risk
N - Worst Case Climate Change
T - Systemic Risk
E - 2020 - 2030 Low Carbon Pathways
E - 2050 Emissions Pathways
E - Changing Probability Distributions
E - Climate Feedbacks
E - Systemic Risk
E - Worst Case Climate Change
E - Extreme Event Impacts
2013 Infographic - Weathermageddon Extreme Climate in Canada 2013
Infographic - Extreme weather and climate change
Infographic - the costs of climate change
E - Changing Probability Distributions
E - Climate Change and Hurricanes
E - Drought Impacts
E - Extreme Event Costs
E - Fire Impacts
E - Flood Impacts
E - Shifting Extremes
2015/2 2015 is an important year for Climate Change
2018/10 Among the Ruins of Mexico Beach Stands One House, Built ‘for the Big One’
0oC - 5oC extreme event impacts
2000-2050 (2012) Return frequency declining for major hurricanes
2009 Increases in wind damage are not linear to wind speed
2009 Temperatures Will Rise - Australia as an Example
2009 The new "business as usual" of extreme events
2010 Relating sea level rise to storm return time for NYC
2011 10 Warmest Years on Record
2011 Aggregated climate change index shows future change relative to current variability
2011 US natural disaster risk map
2011 Very different sensitivities to risk
2012 Confidence in projecting direction and magnitude of some extremes grows as timeframe increases
2012 extreme weather events
2012 Interpreting global cyclone projections to risk management in the Caribbean
2012 Interpreting global drought projections to risk management in the Sahel
2012 Interpreting global heat wave projections to risk management in Europe
2012 Models clearly project changes in heat extreme return periods (see NA detail)
2012 Models clearly project precipitation extreme impact return periods over time (see NA detail)
2012 Natural disasters
2012 Significant weather related losses of 2011
2013 25 Most Costly Worldwide Insurance Disasters 1970-2012
2014/3 Heavy downpours more intense, frequent in a warmer world
2014 Probability distribution of annual increase in property damage assuming no change in hurricane activity
2015 Global probability of exceeding 99th extremes with temperature increase
2015 Probability of extreme precipitation events under warming
2016 Billion-dollar weather events 1980 2015
2018 Modeling flood risk over time
2018 Tropical cyclones getting stronger
2019 Significant climate anomalies and events in 2019
2019 Visualizing the December, 2019 European heat wave
2020 Top 20 largest California wildfires 1932-2020
2021 Distribution of reported disasters 1970 - 2019
2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in Africa 1970 - 2019
2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in Asia 1970 - 2019
2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in Europe 1970 - 2019
2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in LDCs 1970 - 2019
2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in North American and Caribbean 1970 - 2019
2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) 1970 - 2019
2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in South America 1970 - 2019
2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in South West Pacific 1970 - 2019
2030-2050 (2020) Lethal heat wave probabilities in India
2030-2050 (2020) Lethal heat wave probability
2030-2050 (2020) Probability of drought across Africa
2030-2050 (2020) Probability of drought in Meditteranean
2030-2050 Change in global drought likelihood
2040 (2020) Increased likelihood of today’s 100-year hurricanes
2100 (2012) Expected change in regional extreme temperatures (degrees and SDs)
2100 (2012) Expected regional temperature change (degrees and SDs)
2100 (2012) Percentage of expected to exceed 3, 4, and 5 SDs from current temperatures
Alaskan Fires up
An average of 30 ft of beach lost in NJ
Anticipated damage from hurricane intensification.
Arctic Ice - Record Low Maximum
Areas burned up dramatically
Billion Dollar Weather Disasters 1980-2010 economic damage caused by weather vulnerability
Climate change implications for the Rio Grande
Coastal infrastructure damaged
Coming up with a baseline for extreme event damages, now and 2100
Companies already feeling water impacts
costs of recent extreme weather events
Current extremes like 2003 heat wave point to future climate change impacts
Days Above 95 degrees by 2100
Disaster relief costs in the U.S. are increasing
Dispersion of New Orleans residents after Hurricane Katrina
Drought and drought-related costs in the U.S. are increasing
Electrical service lost
Extreme weather metrics
Extreme weather on the risk
Heavy Downpours Increasing
Hurricane Ike
Hurricane Power North Atlantic
Hurricane Sandy impacts
Hurricanes may get stronger
Initial probability assessment carried out by the National Hurricane Center
IPCC has looked at likelihood of different kinds of extreme events
Loss events worldwide 2013
Mapping countries' cost vs. population affected by extreme events
Mitigation strategies for water extremes not yet in place
More U.S. 1" Downpours
More U.S. 2" Downpours
More U.S. 3" Downpours
Munich Re Climate Events
Normalization studies of disaster loss recordds
Numbers of weather-related loss events to 2014
Potential impacts of water extremes on business operations
Precipitation anomalies in 2010
Probability of drought during this century under BAU emissions
Projected temperature change of hottest and coldest days
Projecting net extreme event damages in 2100
Record setting ocean heat content linked to Harvey's epic rains
Regional Changes in Climate Extremes
Relationship of lightning insurance claims to temperature
Relative probability of extremes compared to pre-industrial
Sea surface temperatures August 2017
Shifting global occurrences of extreme events
Significant (>$1 blliion) weather events in North America 1993 - 2012
Significant climate anomalies in 2014
The European heat wave of 2003
The main reason that natural disaster costs have increased so significantly
There are more man-made than natural catastrophers
Total water levels for selected extreme events in the U.S.
Transportation infrastructure damaged
Underground systems flooded
We're setting more records for warm days than cold days
Weather events are the big source of insured catastrophe losses
WEF storms profile
Changes in climate extremes are more important than changes in averages
E - Impacts Top Level
6 of 10 wettest days in NYC have occurred since 1972
2011 Infographic - GHG Contributions vs. Climate Vulnerability
2013 Infographic - Weathermageddon Extreme Climate in Canada 2013
Could climate change transform Earth into Venus? [Infographic]
Infographic - 2013 Significant Climate Anomalies and Events
Infographic - African climate impacts
Infographic - Can We Feed 7 Billion People
Infographic - Change in annual average temperature and rainfall
Infographic - Climate Change is Unfair - Typhoon Haiyan
Infographic - Connecting the dots
Infographic - Coral Reefs
Infographic - Disastrous Spending Federal disaster relief
Infographic - future climate trends for South Asia
Infographic - Future climate trends for Africa
Infographic - History of tobacco
Infographic - How Climate Change is Destroying the Earth
Infographic - How Climate Change Will Affect Your Health
Infographic - No-More-Fish-In-The-Sea
Infographic - Observed change in temperatures and precipitation
Infographic - Risks at 2, 3, 4 Degrees
Infographic - Snapshot of a Warming World
Infographic - The Countries That Are Most (And Least) Prepared For Climate Change
Infographic - weather is getting more extreme
Infographic - Western Wildlifes and Climate Change
Infographic - Whats at stake for the worlds species
Infographic - Who's Most At Risk From Climate Change? Not The People Who Caused It
Infographic Global-impacts-for-different-emissions-scenarios
Infographic_Impacts of climate change on U.S. public transportation
Infographic_Whats at stake for the worlds forests
Infographic: How Climate Change Will Affect Your Health
Oregon Health Authority_Oregon Climate and Health Infographic
Preparing Your Home For A Natural Disaster [infographic]
Rising temperatures in New York City
Syria’s climate-fueled conflict, in one stunning comic strip
E - Changing Probability Distributions
E - Climate Change Tipping Points
E - Climate Vulnerability
E - Forecasted Climate Impacts
E - Impact Specific Economics
E - Impacts by Business Sector
E - Impacts by Degree
E - Impacts by Geography
E - Impacts by Time Period
E - Impacts by Type
E - Indirect Impacts
E - Long Tail Risk Impacts
E - Manifestations of climate risk
4page-companion-brochure.pdf (applicationpdf Object)
1920-2100 (2017) A massive increase in "nuisance flooding" around the U.S.
2007 Mindmap - Climate impacts
2009 Snapshot of ocean acidification
2010 Ability of ocean organizations to calcify, related to stabilized CO2 concentrations
2010 Carbon Emissions vs. Vulnerability to Climate Change by Country
2011 Premature deaths avoided in 2030 due to black carbon control
2012 Interpreting global cyclone projections to risk management in the Caribbean
2012 Interpreting global drought projections to risk management in the Sahel
2012 Interpreting global heat wave projections to risk management in Europe
2014 Projected change in property crime
2014 Projected change in violent crime rates
2014 State level per capita direct costs
2014 The arctic open for commerce
2015 Automotive
2015 Economic impact of climate change on the world
2016 1/3 of global land surface in drought in 2015
2016 2015 was warmest year for second year in a row
2016 Arctic fisheries are contracting significantly
2016 Arctic sea ice hit "lowest maximum extent" in 2015
2016 Arctic warming at double the global rate
2016 Extreme heat was widespread in in 2015
2016 Glaciers continuing to lose ice, permafrost continuing to warm
2016 Greenland ice sheet had many more melt days in 2015
2016 International dimensions of climate risk
2016 Key GHGs reached new highs in 2015
2016 Ocean levels, surface temperatures, and heat all anomalously high in 2015
2016 Remember what this report is and is not
2016 Sea levels responded significantly to El Nino
2016 UK risks and opportunities by land use type
2017 'Climate risks depend on cumulative emissions
2018 Fastest Growing Cities are Most Vulnerable to Climate Change
2018 The risks of climate change
2020 Environmental Risks' Rise to Global Dominance
2021 Change in mean precipitation and soil moisture under different levels of warming
2021 Contribution to warming under 5 scenarios
2021 Distribution of warming under different global averages
2021 Effectiveness of sinks declines as emissions increase
2021 Estimated remaining carbon budgets for target probabilities
2021 Every ton contributes to warming basically linearly
2021 Global mean sea level change in 2300 under 2 scenarios
2021 Global mean sea level rise under 5 scenarios
2021 Global surface temperature change under 5 scenarios
2021 Human influences are warming the climate at a rate unprecedented in at least 2000 years
2021 Increase in drought conditions
2021 Increase in heavy precipitation since 1950’s
2021 Increase in hot extremes since 1950’s
2021 Number of regions likely to experience changes in climatic impact-drivers
2021 Ocean acidification under 5 scenarios
2021 Precipitation and drought extremes will become more frequent
2021 Relative contributions to warming 2010-2019
2021 September Arctic sea ice under 5 scenarios
2021 Temperature extremes will get much more frequent
2021 Time and uncertainty of warming to 2100
2021 Warming to 2100 under 5 scenarios
Acceptable and unacceptable risk
Africa
And can be compared to distribution of rain-fed agriculture
Annual average temperature and economic production
Asia
Australasia
Central and South America
Changing risks of venomous snakebite
Climate change in Asia and the Pacific
Climate change will impact coastal communities in various ways
Climate change: how a warming world is a threat to our food supplies
Climate disaster events in South Asia
costs of recent extreme weather events
Differences in model forecasts of tropical cyclone frequency expressed as a percent of present day levels
Economic dependence on fossil fuel exports
Energy sector vulnerabilities to climate change - 2
Europe
Examples of major climate impacts on selected sectors
Examples of water-driven business impacts 2013-2016
Figure SPM.3
Figure SPM.6b
Figure SPM.7.
Figure SPM.9.
Future precipitation changes will have large regional differences
General ways energy systems can be affected
Global damage estimate from non-linear impacts of temperature
Graphic - How big a change are we talking about?
Graphic of 0-5 degree changes in Canada
House alone after Hurricane Ike
If we could turn back the clock
Impact on cooling and heating days very regionally different
Impacts 1- 11 Characterized
Impacts 12-22 Characterized
Impacts 23-31 Characterized
Impacts 32-37 Characterized
Infographic - Fire Risk in America
Integration of crop models and economic model
Irreversibility of climate impacts
Leading causes of death
Linking climate change to health outcomes
Lots of studies to support damages from acidification
Mapping out highest risk and lowest vulnerability countries
Marine species ability to shift range
Natural disasters have major impact on low-income countries
Notable climate anomalies and events in 2016
Polar Regions
Powerplants will face reductions in usable capacity
Projected changes in precipitation intensity
Projected changes in strong non tropical storms
Projected difference in Dry days for Africa to 2050's
Projected forest changes under different climate forecasts - with and without forest suppression
Relationship between sea surface temp and hurricane power
Relative climate and policy uncertainties, examples
Relative impact of climate change on GDPs
River temperatures will increase significantly by 2080's
Ruffed Grouse Range over time
Sample graphic for range change based on alternative models
Scenario 1 - Chai Time
Scenario 2 - Storm in a Teacup
Scenario 3 - Green leaf
Scenario 4 - Rebrewed
The implications of rising temperatures are bad for agriculture
Those who contribute least will be impacted most
Track of 1991 "Perfect Storm"
U.S. Natural catastrophes in 2016
We can't assume uncertainty is modest and manageable
WEF biodiversity profile
WEF climate change profile
Where hail sizes will increase
Climate responding faster than expected
Evidence we're underestimating rates of change
Some of the major impacts
Some risk analyses are trying to look at nearer-term risk
Spring 2012 in U.S. warmest on record (video)
2016 How Many Gigatons of CO2? Infographic
E - Probabilistic Decision-Making
E - Changing Probability Distributions
Probabilistic and discrete SLR estimates complement each other
I:ChangingProbabilityDistributions