Headings - Extracted Materials
E - Extreme Event Costs
Extracted Graphics | Extracted Ideas
Under-Estimating Climate Risk
Under-Estimating the Costs of Climate Change
2012 Expected annual losses from hurricanes and tropical storms in Virgina
2012 Resulting in a major change in expected annual hurricane losses
2015 The cost of natural disasters
2016 Weather related loss events 1980-2014
2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in Africa 1970 - 2019
2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in Asia 1970 - 2019
2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in Europe 1970 - 2019
2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in LDCs 1970 - 2019
2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in North American and Caribbean 1970 - 2019
2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) 1970 - 2019
2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in South America 1970 - 2019
2021 Overview of weather, water, and climate-related disasters, deaths, and economic losses reported in South West Pacific 1970 - 2019
Costs of weather and climate natural disasters
Estimated changes in extreme events damage to 2040
E - Economics Top Level
2015 Infographic - beef subsidies in Brazil
2015 Infographic - timber subsidies Indonesia
2015 Infographic palm oil subsidies in Indonesi
2015 Infographic soy subsidies in Brazil
Infographic - Disastrous Spending Federal disaster relief
Infographic - How Much Does Solar Power Cost?
Infographic - Natural Capital
Infographic - Putting the worlds money supply into perspective
Infographic - the costs of climate change
Infographic - The value of the Great Barrier Reef to Australia
Infographic - Why global carbon emissions fell in 2014
Infographic Disaster Risk Finance: Protecting Livelihoods and Developme
E - Alternative Economics
E - Carbon Pricing Extracts
E - Climate and Economic Growth
E - Climate Opportunities
E - Cost Benefit Analysis
E - Economic Forecasting
E - Economic Modeling
E - Economic Policymaking
E - Economic thinking as part of climate problem
E - Ecosystem Services
E - Extreme Event Costs
E - GDP Scenarios
E - Impact Specific Economics
E - Implications of Discounting Future Damages
E - Integrated Assessment Modeling
E - Low Carbon Transition Costs
E - MACC Curves
E - Mitigation Economics
E - Mitigation Potentials by Cost
E - SCC Social Cost of Carbon
E - Societal Economics
E - Technology Economics
Interactive Graphic - Farming and the Green economy
2001 Economics costs of climate change up to 6^o C
2006 Forecasting the cost of future climate change mitigation
2006 The optimal amount of climate change mitigation in a given time period
2007 Estimated geographical impacts of 2.5 and 6 degrees C of warming
2008 Nuclear is the cheapest option if we price carbon
2009 Conventional vs. expansive estimate of climate change impact on GDP
2009 How discount rates affect different adaptation measures
2010 Annualized U.S. loss trend - water impacts
2010 Discounted U.S. damages (direct water supply)
2010 Economics of climate change in Chicago by 2070-2099
2010 National employment impacts
2010 Second order uncertainty is the uncertainty in the uncertainty
2010 Welfare probabilities shown against $50 and $500 carbon taxes
2011 Delayed climate policy could cost $8 trillion by 2030
2011 Forecasts in figure form - shaded area showing range of legislative proposals
2011 Potential per capita GDP costs of climate change to 2200
2011 The difficult of quantifying ecosystem costs
2011 There is big uncertainty about forecasted prices even given probram design
2013 Economic losses related to natural catastrophes
2013 Forecasting global baseline CO2 emissions
2013 Only a relatively small (and declining) part of the U.S. economy is really vulnerable to climate change.
2013 SCC models are commonly characterized by a continued growth trajectory, regardless of climate change
2013 There is no such thing as one number for the SCC
2013 With limited participation number goes to 4 degrees.
2014 Combined direct impact costs vs. integrated costs
2014 Costs of CO2 mitigation
2014 Direct costs and benefits by state, historical hurricane, market mortality
2014 Direct costs and benefits by state, projected hurricane, VSL mortality cost
2014 If the forecasted targets are achieved through P&Ms or targets, what's the cost? (CO2eq)
2014 Per capita county direct costs from change in energy costs
2014 Per capita county-level labor productivity impacts
2014 Per capita direct costs by county distribution
2014 Per capita increase in average annual storm damages due to SLR
2014 Per capita increase in state coastal damages due to SLR alone
2014 Per capita increase in state coastal damages due to SLR and potential hurricane activity change
2014 Per capita state cost increases from crime
2014 State level per capita direct costs
2014 State level per capita direct costs
2015/8 Limiting climate change can save $1.8 Trillion in fuel spend, and $100 Trillion in damages
2015 9. But implications differ by sector, as shown here.
2015 14. But costs are higher, unless you factor in climate and health savings
2015 Action scenario
2015 And will continue to fall
2015 And wind and solar costs are evolving quickly
2015 Annual electricity production and fossil fuel role to 2040
2015 Changes in energy spend by scenario
2015 Comparing Citi and IEA solar and wind deployment
2015 Economic impact of climate change on the world
2015 Inaction scenario
2015 Net and cumulative incremental costs of the action scenario
2015 REDD Finance vs. agricultural and biofuels subsidies in Brazil and Indonesia
2015 The non-climate benefits and costs of CO2
2015 The relative economics of offsets
2015 Value of potentially unburnable carbon
2016 Estimated cost of natural disasters of 2012 in U.S.
2016 Mapping GHG productivity along value chains
2016 Mapping GHG productivity along value chains
2016 Sector emissions vs. value added
2016 Sectors are affected differently by climate change
2017 17 estimates of the GDP impact of climate change plotted as a least squares - 5 to 95% confidence interval
2017 Billion-Dollar Weather
2017 Recent cost trends for selected technologies
2017 Technology will create opportunities for energy savings and resource productivity
2020 CBO's projections over different time periods
2020 Charting the CBO's methodology
2020 Comparing CBO estimates to two other studies
2020 Estimated cost of an HVDC system
2020 Estimated Costs and Benefits of Infrastructure 3.0
2020 Estimates of economic damage to 2100
2020 HVDC Capital and Maintenance costs by phase
2020 North America’s average cost of energy between 2009 and 2017
2020 Potential new jobs based on payback and interest rate
2020 The overall impact of climate change to 2050
2020 U.S. energy productivity 1950-2019
2021 Billion dollar disasters 1980 - 2020
2030 (2017) Climate change could raise extreme poverty significantly
2100 (2014) Change in per capita direct energy expenditure by state for RCP 8.5 scenario
2100 (2014) Per capita state-level direct costs from increasing mortality under RCP 8.5 scenario
A lot more maritime reductions available by 2030
Alternative fittings of the line to the data
And huge questions about be raised about the entire discounting approach
Attractive adaptation options can mitigate risk increases
Best estimate economics across control technologies and one technology combination, 100% in region
But with inefficiency and discounting, a very different number - 3.8 degrees.
Case study of 37 forecasted energy impacts
CCS costs vs other technologies
Change in hydropower output 2020s and 2050s (no adaptation)
Change in maximum catch potential 2050s
Change in thermoelectric power output 2020s and 2050s (no adaptaiton)
Confidence in climate change health impacts
Country-level income projections with and without climate change
Current Impacts - Human health
Declining EV battery costs
Decreasing milk production
Decreasing wine grape quality
E - Adaptation Economics
Economic analysis makes clear that THE economic alternative is to reduce coal use.
Economic benefits of significantly reducing emissions
Economic effects reported in American Climate Prospectus Study
Estimated cost of adapting to sea level rise, 2100
Estimates of welfare loss due to dlimate change in 16 studies
Expected hurricane losses
Expected losses across scenarios
Expected losses across the scenarios
Expected losses by asset type
Expected losses under scenarios
Forecast effect of temperature changes on regional economies
G - Adaptation Economics
Global economic impacts of CC on Port revenues
Global water change impact on hydropower and thermoelectric power to 2100
Globally costs depend significantly on how widespread participation is.
Graphic - How big a change are we talking about?
How much can you save switching to solar?
Impacts of climate change on risk capital requirements
Internalizing Externalities
Mapping global GHG productivity along value chains
Most significantly affected states in population, income
Multiple models have to be linked to estimate economic impacts
One estimate suggests quantified economic costs doubles by 2040
Our normal approach to time preference doesn't work
Overall CC costs in 2030 compared to baseline
Overall CC costs in 2050 compared to baseline
Overcall CC costs in 2100 compared to baseline
Power capacity and substation capacities vary with temperature
Power demands in India significantly affected by CC
Powerplants will face reductions in usable capacity
PV could have a significant impact on economics of utilties
Renewable energy electricity costs are falling
Sectoral interpolated (1-99% CI) risks
Significant maritime reductions are available today
So many of the emissions reductions in shipping are profitable, but they won't happen
Solar Parity Map
Subsidies of more than $1 trillion/year support low resource prices
Summary of potential costs - increasing 4x to 2080
Survey of levelized cost of energy studies
The cost-benefit approach to adaptation
The impact of potential increased hurricane activity
The impacts we're dealing with aren't manageable and at the margin
The middle class
The problem of timing, with much of the benefit coming after 2050.
200X The relative economics of solar energy
The role of cost-benefit in evaluating adaptation measures
The three economies
There are the economic externalities
Value of wetland services
What's the right discount rate?
A wide range of climate sensitivity estimates
All the critical components of a 3.0 infrastructure are experiencing plunging exponential cost curves, creating a virtuous cycle.
An economic approach to climate change is a dead end
Business action and climate capitalism has been proven a dead end
CBO doesn't know where non-captured impacts will be net positive or negative
CBO's estimates primarily driven by temperature and precipitation impacts
Economic models struggle to quantify potentially catastrophic outcomes
Economic Opportunities and Jobs
Estimates of the economic implications of climate tend tend to be modest
Highlights of $16 Trillion Investment
Is cost-benefit analysis even the right tool?
It is hard to see warming being reduced to less than 3oC without geoengineering
Some economic analysis - e.g. hurricanes in NYC, suggests very high costs of CC
Some economists argue that addressing GHG emissions will be beneficial on net
The bottom line is that the probability of catastrophic outcomes is increasing
The challenge of CC cost-benefit analysis
The projection is subject to a great deal of uncertainty
The Stern Review framed climate change as a question of risk management
Thinking of climate as a probability distribution
Three problems with an SCC value
U.S. and global economy may be only 16% efficient
Valuing climate risks does not generate a good measure of risks
What if the economic question is phrased differently?
E - Extreme Event Impacts
2013 Infographic - Weathermageddon Extreme Climate in Canada 2013
Infographic - Extreme weather and climate change
Infographic - the costs of climate change
E - Changing Probability Distributions
E - Climate Change and Hurricanes
E - Drought Impacts
E - Extreme Event Costs
E - Fire Impacts
E - Flood Impacts
E - Shifting Extremes
2015/2 2015 is an important year for Climate Change
2018/10 Among the Ruins of Mexico Beach Stands One House, Built ‘for the Big One’
0oC - 5oC extreme event impacts
1900-2010 (2011) U.S. temperature anomalies not nearly as clear as other parts of the world
2000-2050 (2012) Return frequency declining for major hurricanes
2009 Increases in wind damage are not linear to wind speed
2009 Temperatures Will Rise - Australia as an Example
2009 The new "business as usual" of extreme events
2010 Relating sea level rise to storm return time for NYC
2011 10 Warmest Years on Record
2011 Aggregated climate change index shows future change relative to current variability
2011 US natural disaster risk map
2011 Very different sensitivities to risk
2012 Confidence in projecting direction and magnitude of some extremes grows as timeframe increases
2012 extreme weather events
2012 Interpreting global cyclone projections to risk management in the Caribbean
2012 Interpreting global drought projections to risk management in the Sahel
2012 Interpreting global heat wave projections to risk management in Europe
2012 Models clearly project changes in heat extreme return periods (see NA detail)
2012 Models clearly project precipitation extreme impact return periods over time (see NA detail)
2012 Natural disasters
2012 Significant weather related losses of 2011
2013 25 Most Costly Worldwide Insurance Disasters 1970-2012
2014/3 Heavy downpours more intense, frequent in a warmer world
2014 Probability distribution of annual increase in property damage assuming no change in hurricane activity
2015 Global probability of exceeding 99th extremes with temperature increase
2015 Probability of extreme precipitation events under warming
2016 Billion-dollar weather events 1980 2015
2018 Modeling flood risk over time
2018 Tropical cyclones getting stronger
2019 Significant climate anomalies and events in 2019
2019 Visualizing the December, 2019 European heat wave
2020 Top 20 largest California wildfires 1932-2020
2021 Distribution of reported disasters 1970 - 2019
2030-2050 (2020) Lethal heat wave probabilities in India
2030-2050 (2020) Lethal heat wave probability
2030-2050 (2020) Probability of drought across Africa
2030-2050 (2020) Probability of drought in Meditteranean
2030-2050 Change in global drought likelihood
2040 (2020) Increased likelihood of today’s 100-year hurricanes
2050 (2020) Economic impact of extreme flood could be 5-10 times greater than today
2100 (2012) Expected change in regional extreme temperatures (degrees and SDs)
2100 (2012) Expected regional temperature change (degrees and SDs)
2100 (2012) Percentage of expected to exceed 3, 4, and 5 SDs from current temperatures
Alaskan Fires up
An average of 30 ft of beach lost in NJ
Anticipated damage from hurricane intensification.
Arctic Ice - Record Low Maximum
Areas burned up dramatically
b. By increasing variability with the existing mean
Billion Dollar Weather Disasters 1980-2010 economic damage caused by weather vulnerability
Climate change implications for the Rio Grande
Coastal infrastructure damaged
Coming up with a baseline for extreme event damages, now and 2100
Companies already feeling water impacts
Conceptual diagram of shifting probabilities
costs of recent extreme weather events
Current extremes like 2003 heat wave point to future climate change impacts
Days Above 95 degrees by 2100
Disaster relief costs in the U.S. are increasing
Dispersion of New Orleans residents after Hurricane Katrina
Drought and drought-related costs in the U.S. are increasing
Electrical service lost
Extreme weather metrics
Extreme weather on the risk
Heavy Downpours Increasing
Hurricane Ike
Hurricane Power North Atlantic
Hurricane Sandy impacts
Hurricanes may get stronger
Initial probability assessment carried out by the National Hurricane Center
IPCC has looked at likelihood of different kinds of extreme events
Loss events worldwide 2013
Mapping countries' cost vs. population affected by extreme events
Mitigation strategies for water extremes not yet in place
More U.S. 1" Downpours
More U.S. 2" Downpours
More U.S. 3" Downpours
Munich Re Climate Events
Normalization studies of disaster loss recordds
Numbers of weather-related loss events to 2014
Potential impacts of water extremes on business operations
Precipitation anomalies in 2010
Probability of drought during this century under BAU emissions
Projected temperature change of hottest and coldest days
Projecting net extreme event damages in 2100
Record setting ocean heat content linked to Harvey's epic rains
Regional Changes in Climate Extremes
Relationship of lightning insurance claims to temperature
Relative probability of extremes compared to pre-industrial
Sea surface temperatures August 2017
Shifting global occurrences of extreme events
Significant (>$1 blliion) weather events in North America 1993 - 2012
Significant climate anomalies in 2014
The European heat wave of 2003
The main reason that natural disaster costs have increased so significantly
There are more man-made than natural catastrophers
Total water levels for selected extreme events in the U.S.
Transportation infrastructure damaged
Underground systems flooded
We're setting more records for warm days than cold days
Weather events are the big source of insured catastrophe losses
WEF storms profile
Changes in climate extremes are more important than changes in averages
I:ExtremeEventEconomics
