E - Risks of SCC Reliance
Social Cost of Carbon TOC
E - SCC Social Cost of Carbon
I:SCCIncorporationofUncertainty
S - Evaluating SCC Estimates
S - Federal SCC Determination
S - IAMs Integrated Assessment Models
S - Intergenerational Decisionmaking
S - Quantifying Economic Impacts
S - SCC and Risk Adversity
S - SCC Social Cost of Carbon
S - Sectoral Social Costs
N - SCC Social Cost of Carbon News
T - Social Cost of Carbon Individuals
Topical Websites, Blogs, FB Home Pages
V - SCC Social Cost of Carbon
E - Implications of Discounting Future Damages
E - Integrated Assessment Modeling
E - UCC Ultimate Cost of Carbon
How could the SCC be deployed?
2018/10 New York sues ExxonMobil for falsely claiming use of an internal price on carbon, which was portrayed as managing future regulatory risk
2022 New GIVE model estimates mean 3% SCC at $185
2010 Confidence Interval Temperature Changes For Alternative Models
2010 Final analysis - SCC values at alternative discounts, and 95% percentile
2010 GDP Impacts of up to 4 C Change for Multiple Models
2010 GDP Impacts of up to 10 C Change For Multiple Models
2011 The many steps associated with estimating extreme event damages
2013 SCC models are commonly characterized by a continued growth trajectory, regardless of climate change
2013 There is no such thing as one number for the SCC
2013 What do all of the 2010 IAMs estimate at a 3% discount rate
2015 The non-climate benefits and costs of CO2
2016 Although a reliability-based shadow price gives very different results
2016 Box plots for economic damages and social cost of carbon
2016 But economic value of ocean services really very small against GDP
2016 Comparing DICE16 SCC to other estimates
2016 Impact of WAIS collapse by 2200 modest in terms of suggested SCC
2016 Impact of WAIS collapse by 2200 modest in terms of suggested SCC
2016 Range of federal SCC estimates
2016 SCC Estimate by Discount Rate
2016 SCC Estimate in Table Form
2016 SCC values in 2020 and 2100 for Baseline and 2oC pathways
2016 Social cost of carbon estimates based on DICE 16
2017 Carbon prices vs SCC estimates around the world
2017 Framework for Estimating the SCC
2017 Impact of discount rate over the long term
2017 Incremental SCC associated with emitting 3.7 GTs CO2 in 2020
2017 SCC vs shadow price: implicit vs explicit valuation of climate change damages
2017 The climate module as incorporated into the SCC
2018 Estimates of global SCC at different discount rates 2015-2050
2020 Estimating the NPV of income shock resulting from climate change
2021 Current IAMs do not reflect well-developed climate science
2021 Current SCC is behind frontier science
2021 Current US SCC used to justify rollback of fuel economy standards
2021 Distribution of global consumption per capital in 2100 w and w/o tipping points
2021 Recommendations for updating the U.S. SCC
2021 Seven ingredients for calculating the SCC
2021 The impact of including tipping points on estimated SCC
2022 Average Values for the Social Cost of Carbon Vary Among Different Models and Inputs
2022 Current SCC estimates
2022 How the new model compares to DICE 2016 SCC estimate
2022 RFF’s SocioEconomic Scenario Variables
2022 SCC distributions at different interest rates
2022 Scope of damages - 1
2022 Scope of damages - 2
2022 Scope of damages incorporated into SCC
2022 sectoral sub-SCC values
2022 Social Cost of Carbon Values, with Uncertainty Distribution
Distribution of global consumption per capital in 2050 w and w/o tipping points
Distribution of the % change in SCC due to tipping points
Estimated probability density function for a 3% SCC
Revised 2013 Social Cost of CO2, 2010-2050 ($2007)
The causal change inferred by the SCC
The social cost of carbon emissions
Took future GDP/ton emissions divided by SCC to get benefit cost ratio
USG SCC estimates in 2010 and 2013, based on 150,000 model runs
A lot of impacts are still missing from the new model
At the end of the day these economic discussions run into an ethical brick wall
Biden administration should immediately update the SCC by returning to the 2013 IWG’s approach
Biden Administration moved quickly to update SCC values and other policy objectives
Calculate an expected SCC increase of 43% due to tipping points
EPA’s SCC estimate builds on the latest science
Explaining the mortality and agriculture SCC contributions
Explaining the SLR SCC contribution
How confident are we in SCC estimates?
How did the SCC factor into estimating the benefits of new microwave standby power standards?
IAMs Flaw #1 - Inadequate consideration of uncertainty and risk
Impose the social cost of carbon on extraction of fossil fuels from public lands
LW Webinar - Continued Focus on Social Cost of Carbon Estimates
New guidelines may increase mandated mitigation by 60 percent
New mean SCC estimate 3.6x higher than existing SCC
SCC estimates from Biden’s IWG are too low to achieve policy objectives
SCC values are far below what would be required to achieve net zero by 2050
Social Cost of Carbon Special Materials
Study relies on a new IAM
The machinery is being constructed to impose a carbon tax through the back door
The SCC in economic decision-making
The SCC is the appropriate value to use for cost-benefit analysis and related purposes
These new estimates reflect the latest science
Three problems with an SCC value
Tipping points have significant implications for thinking about SCC
Trusting the political process for a "scientific solution" is unscientific
What decisions could the SCC significantly affect?
What is the current SCC value?
What limitations were identified in the 2010 SCC estimates?
Why does risk management not rely on "expected" values?
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E - Risks of SCC Reliance
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