Draft Vlog, 002 - Is the renewable program in trouble?
Here’s a snapshot of Australia’s renewable energy landscape—from sprawling solar farms and wind turbines to transmission infrastructure and large-scale project zones.
Is Australia’s Renewable Energy Program in Trouble?
- What’s Going Right:
1.1 Progress is tangible: In 2024, renewables accounted for 40% of Australia’s electricity generation, up from 39.4% in 2023. Rooftop solar was particularly strong—3.2 GW added, exceeding 4 million installations nationwide. Large-scale wind and solar added 2 GW.([Clean Energy Council][1])
1.2 Cost advantage persists: The CSIRO’s GenCost report confirms that renewable energy remains the most affordable transition pathway.([Clean Energy Council][2])
1.3 Policy adjustments in motion: The federal government expanded the Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) by 25%, adding 8 GW of renewable and storage capacity—raising the total to 40 GW—to boost investment and stay on track for its 2030 target.([Reuters][3])
2 - What’s Holding Back Momentum:
2.1 Stalled project builds:
No new wind farms began construction in the first half of 2025.
Rising turbine costs, investment uncertainty, and negative electricity prices are dampening enthusiasm.([The Australian][4])
Grid reliability risks: A Transgrid report warns of a grid stability gap in New South Wales as coal-fired plants retire—there won’t be sufficient synchronous condensers until around 2029–2030, potentially sparking blackouts.([The Daily Telegraph][5])
Administrative barriers: Slow approval processes, community resistance, and high costs are delaying large projects and transmission infrastructure. The “Rewiring the Nation” initiative aims to upgrade the grid, but progress is incremental.([TBH][6])
Green hydrogen stagnation: Nearly all green hydrogen projects have been cancelled or put on hold—only one is still active, and even that has shifted focus.([Wikipedia][7])
Funding accountability under scrutiny: Critics highlight poorly managed grants and abandoned clean energy projects, raising concerns about waste and strategy.([The Australian][8])
Future-focused policy needed: A panel has recommended creating a long-term, permanent capacity investment scheme rather than an ad-hoc arrangement.([argusmedia.com][9])
3 - Verdict: Is the Program in Trouble?
It’s not a crisis, but there are serious challenges ahead. Australia’s renewable program shows impressive progress, especially through rooftop solar and ongoing investments.
Yet the country faces a critical juncture: to meet its 2030 emissions and renewable goals, policymakers need to address infrastructure gaps, approval delays, and investment uncertainties head-on.
Summary Table
Strengths
Challenges & Risks
Renewable share steadily increasing
Wind project slowdown in 2025
Rooftop solar booming
Grid stability concerns as coal retires
CIS expansion to boost investment
Approval delays and community pushback
Renewables remain cost-effective
Green hydrogen projects largely stalled
Reuters
The Daily Telegraph
The Australian
[1]: https://cleanenergycouncil.org.au/getmedia/f40cd064-1427-4b87-afb0-7e89f4e1b3b4/clean-energy-australia-report-2025.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com "2025 Clean Energy Australia Report"
[2]: https://cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news-resources/highlights-from-the-2025-aces?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Productivity, Planning and Powering Australia's Future"
[3]: https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/australia-boosts-underwriting-scheme-renewables-meet-clean-energy-target-2025-07-29/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Australia boosts underwriting scheme for renewables to meet clean energy target"
[4]: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/turbine-construction-slump-labors-energy-target-all-miss-and-wind/news-story/96909d29b83b5aa80287b46c6cff6c0c?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Labor's energy target all miss and wind as turbine construction slumps"
[5]: https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/serious-risk-of-blackouts-report-reveals-flaw-in-aemos-renewable-energy-plan/news-story/ff5a3a5f13ae9832a3997f27490b9b77?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Report reveals flaw in AEMO's renewable energy plan"
[6]: https://tbhconsultancy.com/whats-slowing-down-australias-renewable-energy-future/?utm_source=chatgpt.com "What's slowing down Australia's Renewable Energy Future?"
[7]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_hydrogen?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Green hydrogen"
[8]: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/its-not-easy-going-green-for-fortescue-despite-the-funding/news-story/be79802ac53f46624e97a7f4143f429a?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Not easy going green: true extent of Fortescue's taxpayer funding revealed"
[9]: https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2718123-australia-needs-permanent-renewable-power-scheme-panel?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Australia needs permanent renewable power scheme: Panel"