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</font></div><div><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: large;">&nbsp;//&nbsp;</span><a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/566749-todays-climate-reality-was-predicted-by-ipcc-30-years-ago-now-what" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: large;">https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/566749-todays-climate-reality-was-predicted-by-ipcc-30-years-ago-now-what</a></div><div>
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<div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/1990-ipcc-report_n_2270453">https://www.huffpost.com/entry/1990-ipcc-report_n_2270453</a></font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">no lnx</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" /><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">by Wynne Parry, LiveScience Contributor:</font></font></font></font></div><div>
</div><div><b>Time has proven that even 22 years ago climate scientists understood the dynamics behind global warming well enough to accurately predict warming, says an analysis that compares predictions in 1990 with 20 years of temperature records.</b></div><div><b>
</b></div><div><b>After an adjustment to account for natural fluctuations, the predictions and the observed increases matched up, the current research found.</b></div><div>
</div><div>The predictions in question come from the first climate assessment report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1990. The IPCC is an internationally accepted scientific authority on climate change, drawing on the expertise of thousands of scientists, so its reports carry special weight. The most recent assessment report came out in 2007.</div><div>
</div><div><b>The accuracy of the 1990 predictions is notable because scientists, 22 years ago, relied on much more simplistic computer models than those now used to simulate the future, said one of the researchers behind the current analysis</b>, Dáithí Stone, now a research scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. He worked on the analysis while at the University of Cape Town and University of Oxford.</div><div>
</div><div><b>What's more, two decades ago, scientists could not have anticipated a number of potentially climate-altering events. These included the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991</b>, which spewed sunlight-blocking particles into the atmosphere, as well as the collapse of industry in the Soviet Union or the economic growth of China, Stone and David Frame, of Victoria University Wellington in New Zealand, write in work published online today (Dec. 9) in the journal Nature Climate Change.</div><div>
</div><div><b>But 22 years ago, scientists understood one crucial factor:</b></div><div><b>
</b></div><div><b>"The prediction basically depended on how much carbon dioxide was already in the atmosphere, and that has been what's importan</b>t," Stone said. [The Reality of Climate Change: 10 Myths Busted]</div><div>
</div><div>What matters is the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution; short-term changes in emissions have relatively little effect on overall warming, Frame and Stone write.</div><div>
</div><div>Other climate scientists have come to the same conclusion; one recent paper warned significant emissions cuts must happen soon to limit warming to a manageable level.</div><div>
</div><div>The 1990 report offered a best estimate of an increase of 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius) by 2030, which at the halfway point in 2010, translates to warming of 1 degree F (0.55 degrees C).</div><div>
</div><div>Stone and Frame compared this expected increase to two sets of temperature records for 1990 through 2010, which showed increases of 0.63 degrees F (0.35 degrees C) and 0.7 degrees F (0.39 degrees C), respectively.</div><div>
</div><div>The 1990 prediction did require an adjustment, since it did not take into account natural variability — which includes the chaotic nature of weather as well as longer-term natural patterns, such as the El Niño/La Niña cycle.</div><div>
</div><div><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 153, 0);">When Frame and Stone took natural variability into account, they found that the observed warming was consistent with the IPCC's best estimate for warmin</span>g.</div></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"></font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_First_Assessment_Report"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" color="#000000">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_First_Assessment_Report</font></a></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 102);">The&nbsp;<b style="">First Assessment Report</b>&nbsp;(<b style="">FAR</b>) of the&nbsp;<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change" title="Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" style="background-image: none; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; text-decoration-line: none;">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a>&nbsp;(IPCC) was completed in 1990.</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> It served as the basis of the</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;</span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Framework_Convention_on_Climate_Change" title="United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change" style="background-image: none; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; text-decoration-line: none;">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">(UNFCCC). This report had effects not only on the establishment of the</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;</span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Framework_Convention_on_Climate_Change" title="United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change" style="background-image: none; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; text-decoration-line: none;">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">(UNFCCC), but also on the first conference of the parties (COP), held in Berlin in 1995.</span><sup id="cite_ref-1" class="reference" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1; unicode-bidi: isolate; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_First_Assessment_Report#cite_note-1" style="text-decoration-line: none; background: none;">[1]</a></sup><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;</span></font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
</span></font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">The executive summary of the WG I Summary for Policymakers report said they are certain that emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing the</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;</span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere" title="Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere" style="background-image: none; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; text-decoration-line: none;">atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases</a><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">, resulting on average in an additional warming of the</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;</span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth" title="Earth" style="background-image: none; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; text-decoration-line: none;">Earth</a></b><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><b>'s surface.</b> They calculated with confidence that CO</span><sub style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1;">2</sub><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">had been responsible for over half the enhanced</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;</span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect" title="Greenhouse effect" style="background-image: none; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; text-decoration-line: none;">greenhouse effect</a><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">. They predicted that under a "business as usual" (BAU) scenario, global mean temperature would increase by about 0.3&nbsp;°C per decade during the [21st] century. </span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 102);">They judged that global mean surface air temperature had increased by 0.3 to 0.6&nbsp;°C over the last 100 years, broadly consistent with prediction of climate models, but also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability. The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect was not likely for a decade or more.</span></font></div><div id="mw-content-text" class="mw-body-content mw-content-ltr" lang="en" dir="ltr" style="direction: ltr;"><div class="mw-parser-output" style=""><p style="margin: 0.5em 0px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" style=""><b style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">The 1992 supplementary report was an update, requested in the context of the negotiations on the UNFCCC at the&nbsp;<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_Summit" title="Earth Summit" style="text-decoration-line: none; background: none;">Earth Summit</a>&nbsp;(United Nations Conference on Environment and Development) in&nbsp;<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rio_de_Janeiro" title="Rio de Janeiro" style="text-decoration-line: none; background: none;">Rio de Janeiro</a>&nbsp;in 1992.</b><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 102);"> The major conclusion was that research since 1990 did "not affect our fundamental understanding of the science of the greenhouse effect and either confirm or do not justify alteration of the major conclusions of the first IPCC scientific assessment</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">". It noted that transient (time-dependent) simulations, which had been very preliminary in the FAR, were now improved, but did not include aerosol or ozone changes.</span></font></p><div id="toc" class="toc" role="navigation" aria-labelledby="mw-toc-heading" style="background-color: rgb(248, 249, 250); border: 1px solid rgb(162, 169, 177); padding: 7px; display: table;"><ul style="list-style: none; margin: 0.3em 0px; padding: 0px;"><li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-1" style="margin-bottom: 0.1em;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_First_Assessment_Report#Overview" style="text-decoration-line: none; background: none;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" color="#000000"><span class="tocnumber" style="display: table-cell; text-decoration: inherit; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0.5em;"><span class="toctext" style="display: table-cell; text-decoration: inherit;">Overview</span></span></font></a></li><li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-2" style="margin-bottom: 0.1em;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_First_Assessment_Report#See_also" style="text-decoration-line: none; background: none;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" color="#000000"><span class="tocnumber" style="display: table-cell; text-decoration: inherit; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0.5em;">2</span><span class="toctext" style="display: table-cell; text-decoration: inherit;">See also</span></font></a></li><li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-3" style="margin-bottom: 0.1em;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_First_Assessment_Report#References" style="text-decoration-line: none; background: none;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" color="#000000"><span class="tocnumber" style="display: table-cell; text-decoration: inherit; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0.5em;">3</span><span class="toctext" style="display: table-cell; text-decoration: inherit;">References</span></font></a></li><li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-4" style="margin-bottom: 0.1em;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_First_Assessment_Report#External_links" style="text-decoration-line: none; background: none;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" color="#000000"><span class="tocnumber" style="display: table-cell; text-decoration: inherit; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0.5em;">4</span><span class="toctext" style="display: table-cell; text-decoration: inherit;">External links</span></font></a></li></ul></div><h2 style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 1em 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px; overflow: hidden; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(162, 169, 177); font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.3;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><span class="mw-headline" id="Overview">Overview</span><span class="mw-editsection" style="user-select: none; margin-left: 1em; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 1em; unicode-bidi: isolate; margin-right: 0px;"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket" style="margin-right: 0.25em;">[</span></span></font></h2><p style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0.5em 0px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">The report was issued in three main sections, corresponding to the three Working Groups of scientists that the IPCC had established.</font></p><ul style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); list-style-image: url(" w="w" skins="skins" vector="Vector" resources="resources" common="common" images="images" bullet-icon.svg="bullet-icon.svg" d4515="d4515" margin="margin" em="em" px="px" padding="padding"><li style="margin-bottom: 0.1em;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Working Group I: Scientific Assessment of Climate Change, edited by J.T. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins and J.J. Ephraums</font></li><li style="margin-bottom: 0.1em;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Working Group II: Impacts Assessment of Climate Change, edited by W.J. McG. Tegart, G.W. Sheldon and D.C. Griffiths</font></li><li style="margin-bottom: 0.1em;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Working Group III:&nbsp; The IPCC Response Strategies</font></li></ul><p style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0.5em 0px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>Each section included a summary for policymakers. This format was followed in subsequent Assessment Report</b>s.</font></p><p style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0.5em 0px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">The executive summary of the policymakers' summary of the WG I report includes:</font></p><ul style="list-style-image: url(" w="w" skins="skins" vector="Vector" resources="resources" common="common" images="images" bullet-icon.svg="bullet-icon.svg" d4515="d4515" margin="margin" em="em" px="px" padding="padding"><li style="margin-bottom: 0.1em;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" style=""><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 102);">We are certain of the following: there is a natural greenhouse effect...; emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing the atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">: CO</span><sub style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 1;">2</sub><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">, methane, CFCs and nitrous oxide. These increases will enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earth's surface. The main greenhouse gas, water vapour, will increase in response to global warming and further enhance it.</span></font></li><li style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0.1em;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>We calculate with confidence that: ...CO<sub style="line-height: 1;">2</sub>&nbsp;has been responsible for over half the enhanced greenhouse effect</b>; long-lived gases would require immediate reductions in emissions from human activities of over 60% to stabilise their concentrations at today's levels...</font></li><li style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0.1em;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>Based on current models, we predict: under [BAU] increase of global mean temperature during the [21st] century of about 0.3&nbsp;°C per decade </b>(with an uncertainty range of 0.2 to 0.5&nbsp;°C per decade); this is greater than that seen over the past 10,000 years; under other ... scenarios which assume progressively increasing levels of controls, rates of increase in global mean temperature of about 0.2&nbsp;°C [to] about 0.1&nbsp;°C per decade.</font></li><li style="margin-bottom: 0.1em;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" style=""><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">There are </span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 102);">many uncertainties in our predictions particularly with regard to the timing, magnitude and regional patterns of climate change, due to our incomplete understanding of: sources and sinks of GHGs; clouds; oceans; polar ice sheet</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">s.</span></font></li><li style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0.1em;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Our judgement is that: global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.3 to 0.6&nbsp;°C over the last 100 years...; The size of this warming is broadly consistent with predictions of climate models, but it is also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability. Thus the observed increase could be largely due to this natural variability; alternatively this variability and other human factors could have offset a still larger human-induced greenhouse warming. The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect is not likely for a decade or more.</font></li><li style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 0.1em;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">under the IPCC business as usual emissions scenario, an average rate of global mean sea level rise of about 6&nbsp;cm per decade over the next century (with an uncertainty range of 3 – 10&nbsp;cm per decade), mainly due to thermal expansion of the oceans and the melting of some land ice. <b>The predicted rise is about 20&nbsp;cm ... by 2030, and 65&nbsp;cm by the end of the next century.</b></font></li></ul><h2 style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 1em 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px; overflow: hidden; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(162, 169, 177); font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.3;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><span class="mw-headline" id="See_also">See also</span><span class="mw-editsection" style="user-select: none; margin-left: 1em; vertical-align: baseline; 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margin-left: 1em; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 1em; unicode-bidi: isolate; margin-right: 0px;"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket" style="margin-right: 0.25em;">[</span></span></font></h2><div class="mw-references-wrap" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><ol class="references" style="margin: 0.3em 0px 0.5em 3.2em; padding: 0px; list-style-image: none; counter-reset: mw-ref-extends-parent 0 list-item 0;"><li id="cite_note-1" style="margin-bottom: 0.1em; counter-increment: mw-ref-extends-parent 1; counter-reset: mw-ref-extends-child 0;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><span class="mw-cite-backlink" style="user-select: none;"><b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_First_Assessment_Report#cite_ref-1" aria-label="Jump up" title="Jump up" style="text-decoration-line: none; background: none;"></a></b></span>&nbsp;<span class="reference-text"><cite class="citation web cs1" style="font-style: inherit; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/ipcc-who-are-they" style="text-decoration-line: none; 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