Climate Impacts as Systems Variable

The need for public policies and measures to tackle climate change has been well understood for decades. It is because those policies have failed to materialize that we’re grappling with accelerating climate change, and looking at a Tug of War between Team Climate Urgency’s efforts to accelerate a low carbon transition, and Team Climate No-Urgency’s efforts to slow the transition.

Theory of Change

• Assumptions: Governments have the authority, resources, and ability to enforce wide-reaching policies that compel industries and citizens to reduce emissions. It assumes policymakers are willing to prioritize climate action, even in the face of opposition from powerful stakeholders like fossil fuel companies.
• Goals: Establish enforceable frameworks, such as renewable energy standards, emissions caps, or vehicle efficiency regulations, to ensure measurable and rapid emissions reductions. Public policy is seen as the linchpin for widespread behavioral and technological shifts.
• Weaknesses: Policies often face fierce resistance, both politically and economically, from interest groups and the public. Mandates can take years to develop, pass, and implement, delaying action. Policy frameworks can also be undermined by poor enforcement, lack of funding, or political changes.

Important Variable Developments

There is always a lot happening on the public policy front when it comes to climate change. Some of the most interesting recent innovations involve Europe’s border carbon adjustment that is likely to encourage more ambitious carbon pricing by countries around the world, and developing countries in particular. Another innovation is “climate superfund” legislation being passed by the states of Vermont and New York in the United States, with the goal of making fossil fuel companies accountable for climate damages. The Topic Briefs below are a great way to come up to speed.

Deep Research Profiles

We’ve used Google’s new Deep Research tool to generate the following topic briefs relevant to this systems variable, with review and editing by the Climatographers.

• Climate Policy Gap Topic Brief
• Border Carbon Adjustments Topic Brief
• Climate Superfund Legislation Topic Brief