E - Scenario Planning

Parents

E - Futures and Foresight Top Level
Futures and Foresight TOC
Scenario Planning TOC
Strategists and Scenario Planners - TOC

Children

"Predict then act" is a dominant planning model, and includes CB analysis
1. Scenarios as a useful frame to explore business materiality
1. We shouldn't trust the availability heuristic
2003 A simplified view of the weather patterns under the scenario
2005 Goal of strategic thinking is to achieve a better structured day-to-day management practice that takes account of longer-term aims in daily decision-making.
200x 60 years of insight into the global system
2011 Plan for “Perfect Storm” and Policy Failure Scenarios
2011 We're lousy at predicting socioeconomic futures
2012 Swiss Re forecasts are pessimistic
2012 The six climate scenarios
2013 Marra_Background on Scenario Planning PPT_35
2013 Marra_Background on Scenario Planning PPT_37
2013 Marra_Background on Scenario Planning PPT_38
2013 Marra_Background on Scenario Planning PPT_39
2013 Marra_Background on Scenario Planning PPT_40
2013 Marra_Background on Scenario Planning PPT_41
2013 Marra_Background on Scenario Planning PPT_42
2013 Marra_Background on Scenario Planning PPT_43
2014 Shell argues there is still a real need for new discoveries, new fields
2014 Shell's Mountain and Oceans scenarios
2015 Scenario design principles -1
2017 Economic performance under the 5 scenarios
2018 Breaking down physical risk
2018 Sectors most likely facing physical risks
2018 The most common scenarios
2018 The scenario probability distribution
2018 WEO vs. IPCC scenarios - several variables
2020 Carbon price evolution across the 3 scenarios
2020 Seeing 2020 as a turning-point for climate action
2021 Actions evaluated and taken as result of scenario analysis
2021 Chart of some initiatives advancing alignment across financial institutions and companies
2021 Climate scenario flow chart
2021 Company assessment focus in climate scenario analysis: physical risk, transition risk, GHG emissions
2021 End to end climate scenario analysis process
2021 Example of scenario analysis process flow from motivation with inputs, outputs, and potential actions
2021 Factors driving decisions on scope of scenario analysis
2021 Increased use of climate scenario analysis 2018 - 2021
2021 Key stages in conducting transition risk assessment for a company
2021 Most common scenarios used by purpose
2021 Net zero emissions targets have been announced or ratified into law by countries representing 73% of global emissions
2021 NGFS scenarios framework
2021 NGFS scenarios framework
2021 Number of baseline scenarios used - some companies use multiple baseline scenarios depending on focus of analysis
2021 Physical risk is spread more widely among industry groups
2021 Plausible worst-case scenario
2021 Reasons expressed by companies for undertaking scenario analysis
2021 Reasons given for choosing various scenarios
2021 Relative popularity of using different scenarios as baselines
2021 Summary of NGFS scenarios
2021 Time horizon of scenarios
2021 Transition risk among carbon intensive companies by sector and Climate VAR at 1.5oC and 3oC
2021 Useful metrics for consideration in portfolio alignment
2021 Warming probability in different scenarios in 2100
2021 Which climate scenarios are used by financial firms
3 Primary and 5 Alternate Scenarios
Adaptation is clearly necessary
Backcasting a scenario approach to figure out how to get where you want to go
Bank of Canada analysis
Bank of England's framework
Bank of France climate risk analysis
Build on the scenario database used for the IPCC Special Report on 1.5 degree warming
Business as usual is not a credible option
Central banks are focusing on stress testing and scenario analysis as tools to provide transparency about the economic impacts of climate change.
Climate change scenarios
Climate change scenarios fo the test case
Climate impacts
Climate policies
Climate risks considered key
Companies choose to use different scenarios for assessing specific risks
Comparing to other scenarios
Competing narratives of the way forward
Conceptual distinction between deterministic, probabilistic, and scenario approaches
Conflict scenario 2010-2020
Conflict scenario 2020-2030
Consumer preferences
Descriptive vs. normative scenarios
Disorderly Scenario
E - Benefits of Scenario Planning
E - Business Scenario Planning
E - Predicting the Future
E - Scenario Disruptors
E - Scenario Planning and Stress Testing
E - Scenario Planning Critiques
E - Shell Scenarios
Economic models available for climate risk assessment
Emissions across the 3 scenarios
Expected values tell you almost nothing about risk
Explore moderate (1.5-2) and high (3+C) levels of warming by 2100
For scenario planning to effectively tackled climate change risk, it has to explore the “unprecedented possibilities”
Forecasted climate scenarios
Frequency of revisiting scenarios
GHG concentrations
Global mean temperature rise across the three scenarios
Guus Schoorlemmer, chair CFRF scenario working group: “without a sound understanding of risk, there can be no effective action.”
Hot House world
How scenario analysis contribute to sustainability science
Incremental health risks under climate scenarios
Is there only one possible future?
Key features
LaCount, Robert - MJ Bardley
Methodologies
Modeling approaches
Most popular reasons for undertaking climate scenario analysis are risk identification and assessment of financial impacts of climate change
Netherlands Bank scenarios and stress testing
NGFS Scenarios
No sensible risk management framework should ignore worst case scenarios
Number of scenarios
Orderly Scenario
Overview of the scenario analysis process
Primary energy mix across the scenarios
Properly used, scenario planning is powerful. But often what companies say they’re doing is “little more than sensitivities around some conventional strategic plan.”
Risk information is often presented as an expected value
Scenario Assumptions
Scenario calibration
Scenario granularity
Scenario planning involves determining what would REALLY make a difference to a company
Scenario planning is exploratory as compared to stress testing
Scenario Timeline - Efficiency First
Scenario Timeline - Environmental War Economy
Scenario timeline - Protectionist World
Scenario Timeline - Redefining Progress
Scenario Timeline - Service Transformation
Scope of climate risk
Security Outlook 2030 - Three scenarios
Step 1 - Identify objectives and exposures
Step 2 - Choose climate scenarios, Including
Step 3 - Assess economic and financial impacts
Step 4 - Communicating and using results
Systematic framing of scenarios dates back to WWII
Systems modeling a precursor to scenario analysis
Technological evolution
The core questions for sustainability science
The pathway lenses in graphical form
The potential roles of scenario analysis
The scenario development process for the NIC studies
Time horizon
Timeframe-based scenario choices
Top-down vs. bottom-up
Trend Blend 2007
Trend Blend 2008
Utilities often miss many of the relevant scenarios
Variables to consider
Warming world? Low carbon economy? How can scenario planning help?
What are sustainability scenarios
What is best practice under uncertainty?

Jumps

I - ScenarioPlanningGeneral (Deep Dive)

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