E - Low Carbon Transition Knowledgebase

Parents

Low Carbon Transition TOC

Children

1.5oC - 2oC Comparing the implications
2007 Anticipated emissions from forests to 2100
2007 What's Different? No Silver Bullets
2008 Consumers are not changing their behavior
2008 In scenarios oil consumption peaks around 2020, gas 2025
2008 Sustainable level of emissions suggests a 90% drop in U.S. emissions
2008 Technology costs have declined rapidly
2008 We have historically over-estimated the costs of acting
2009 2050 Energy production by scenarios
2009 Annex 1 and non Annex 1 pathways for 4 degrees
2009 Snapshot of world GHG emissions by sector, 2000
2010 Implementing the three strategies
2010 Per capita emissions vs. what is "sustainable" for 2oC
2011 Energy sector employment under 2% investment initiatve
2011 Scenario land use vs. other scenario
2012 Evolution of transport sector technologies now to 2030
2012 The key metrics for 2050 reductions
2012 Transitions in energy use patterns 1850-2010
2013 Forecasting global baseline CO2 emissions
2014 Assumed reference case in RCP8.5 range
2014 Global proportion of low-carbon energy
2014 Projected emissions in 2030
2014 Rate of growth of wind and solar
2014 Wind deployment way up
2015 13. Emissions would fall dramatically
2015 Business as usual emission to 2040
2015 Emissions by source and sector
2015 Emissions pathways with overlaid risk time horizons
2015 Fluorinated gases emissions to 2050
2015 Many scenarios for reaching 80-100% renewables
2016 1.5 to 4.5 degrees C by 2100 with high degree of confidence
2016 A rapid growth in infrastructure initiatives
2016 Annual land use gain/loss 1990 - 2015
2016 Electricity demand from EVs will soar
2016 Historical forest expansion compared to MCS benchmark5
2016 Increase in resource use to 2025 and 2040
2016 Net electricity generation to 2050
2016 What outcomes are infrastructure initiatives focused on
2017 1 Million Additional Jobs by 2050
2017 2017 Average annual change in investment vs. fuel expenditures to 2050
2017 A different view of the future
2017 A More Detailed Look at the 9 Regions
2017 A radically different view of the future
2017 Carbon prices vs SCC estimates around the world
2017 Coal consumption vs. Peabody share price
2017 Electric car diffusion
2017 Implications of delaying the peak in global emissions
2017 Increasing oil use efficiency
2017 Models are assuming a lot of negative emissions
2017 NCS as fraction of needed reductions by 2030, 37% through 2030, 20% through 2050, and 9% through 2100
2017 Summarizing the Pathways
2017 Total installed capacity as multiple of peak demand
2017 Traditional oil forecasts
2018/2 Funding the Fight Against Climate Change
2020 100% Solar, Wind, and Batteries is Just the Beginning
2020 100% Solar, Wind, and Batteries is Possible
2020 100% Solar, Wind, and Batteries is the Cheapest System by 2030
2020 Emissions reductions by sector required to meet 2oC target
2021 8 technologies can generate 90% reductions by 2035
2021 Eight global supply chains account for more than 50% of annual greenhouse gas emissions
2021 Price markup for products with net zero supply chains
2021 Sector disruptions will allow ecological restoration
2021 The cost of abating emissions by supply chain
2021 Understanding disruption
2021 Updated climate change tipping point
4oC - The estimated range of sea level rise impacts
87% of emissions from sectors in the Scale or Deploy stage
Analysis is intended to be very conservative
Causal feedback loops drive disruption
Conventional thinking has failed us - underestimating climate change and proposing band-aids
Defining an energy transition
E - 100% Renewable Transition
E - CCS and CCUS
E - Comparing/Evaluating Low Carbon Studies
E - Drivers of Low Carbon Transition
E - Electrification of the Energy System
E - Emissions Pathways
E - LCT Barriers
E - LCT Pathways
E - Low Carbon Investing
E - Low Carbon Transition Barriers
E - Low Carbon Transition Costs
E - Low Carbon Transition Methodologies
E - Low Carbon Transition Policy
E - Low Carbon Transition Recommendations
E - Low Carbon Winners and Losers
E - Private Sector Role in LCT
E - Speed of Technology Diffusion
E - Systemic Climate Risk
E - Temperature Scenarios and Forecasts
Emissions mitigation by sector - Sensible Scenarios
Executive Summary
Fossil fuels will remain dominant in every scenario
Four steps would help align all the infrastructure initiatives
Full decarbonization would lead to an increase of no more than 4% in end consumer prices
How 24 100% renewable energy scenarios scored
How infrastructure initiatives target barriers to
Key features
Main findings in the report
Misconceptions of conventional analysis
Prepare for crash deployment of low carbon technologies
RethinkX Accelerated Disruption Scenario
RethinkX Core Disruption Scenario
RethinkX Delayed Disruption Scenario
RethinkX has been more accurate than conventional analysts
RethinkX model - active reforestation by biome
RethinkX model - emissions mitigation by sub-sector - 1
RethinkX model - emissions mitigation by sub-sector - 2
RethinkX model - emissions mitigation by sub-sector - 3
RethinkX model - emissions mitigation by sub-sector - 4
RethinkX model - passive reforestation by biome
Sector reductions to 2035 by readiness stage - Sensible Scenario
Sectoral reductions by 2035 - Sensible Scenario
Societal choices matter in promoting net zero emissions
The causal feedback loop of disruption
The disruption of energy to date
The disruption of transportation to date
The pending disruption of the food sector
The three stages of technology readiness
Total emissions under 4 political constrain scenarios
We can achieve net zero before 2040 and save trillions of dollars
We tend to underestimate the pace of change when it happens
We’ve done a poor job of forecasting disruption to date
Welfare gain under 4 political constrain scenarios
Welfare under four political constraint scenarios
Which match up with flexibility needs in different ways

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I - LowCarbonTransition (Deep Dive)

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