E - Forecasted Climate Impacts

Parents

E - Futures and Foresight Top Level
E - Impacts Top Level

Children

0oC - 5oC biological systems vulnerability
0oC to 6oC - Probability of sleeping problems and different global temperature thresholds
0oC-6oC - Probability of individuals encountering problems with playing sports at different global temperatures
1900-2100 (2008) Change in daily heavy precipitation events, with uncertainty
1900-2100 (2008) Increase in % of warm nights for North America, with uncertainty
1900-2100 (2010) Changes in permafrost coverage to 2100
1900-2100 (2012) Estimated ocean acidification under alternative emissions scenarios
1919 US oil fields will reach maximum production within the next 2 to 5 years
1947 Sufficient oil cannot be found in the United States according to the State Department
1970 The US will remain self-sufficient, and oil prices will remain low
1978 According to the IEA, there is risk of a serious energy crisis in the middle to late 80's
1980-2040 (2009) Decreasing habitat for coldwater fish
1980-2100 (2014) North Hemisphere near-surface permafrost area to 2100
1980-2100 (2014) Northern Hemisphere snow cover change to 2100
1980-2100 (2014) Number of days over 95o (F) RCP 8.5 Median and 1 in 20 chance
1980-2100 (2015) Change in after number of days over 95 degrees (F) Median and 1 in 20 chance estimates
2000-2050 (2012) Annual probability of loss due to hurricanes for Miami-Dade Region
2009 Climate in peril, Africa impacts
2009 Climate in peril, Asia impacts
2009 Climate in peril, Australia and New Zealand
2009 Climate in peril, Europe
2009 Climate in peril, Latin America
2009 Climate in peril, North America
2009 Long term precipitation change vs. observed droughts
2009 Potential climate change feedback loops
2010 1% Exceedance - High value water availability
2010 1% Exceedance - Water for Mining
2010 10% Exceedance - High value water availability
2010 10% Exceedance - Water for mining
2010 50% exceedance - High value water availability
2010 50% Exceedance - Water for Mining
2010 Annualized U.S. loss trend - water impacts
2010 Gardner_Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless and You Can do Better
2010 National employment impacts
2011 Acidification implications vary widely by species
2011 Anticipated changes in stream-flow in 2050
2011 Projected changes in hydropower generation to 2050
2011 U.S. Temperature change
2012 Estimated changes in extreme events damage to 2040
2012 Global water security map: Now vs. 2025
2012 Models clearly project changes in heat extreme return periods (see NA detail)
2012 Models clearly project precipitation extreme impact return periods over time (see NA detail)
2013 A simplistic look at a climate change cost-benefit analysis, suggesting an optimum of 2.3 degrees.
2014 Annual change in soil moisture to 2100
2014 Change at the county level
2014 Change in dangerous days by scenarios and 2100 vs. 2200
2014 Change in high-risk sectors by scenario and time-frame
2014 Change in national yield for crops by time and scenario (assuming NO CO2 fertilization)
2014 Change in property crime by county
2014 Change in violent crime by county
2014 Frequency of labor supply losses will increase significantly
2014 Number of dangerous days based on Humid Stroke Index
2014 Projected changes in frost-free season length by scenario
2014 Projected changes in lyme disease threat
2014 U.S. change in precipitation by season
2014/3 Heavy downpours more intense, frequent in a warmer world
2016 Climate change impact stress map
2016 Forest NPP with temperature change
2016 Met Office_Global impacts of a warming world
2016 The impact of temperature on forest area is likely to vary substantially for different forest biomes
2017 Changing Cold Hardiness zones in Oregon to 2050
2017 Forecasting OR's winter temperature change
2017 Forecasting Oregon temperatures and precipitation to 2100
2017 Forecasting Oregon's snowpack to 2069
2017 Forecasting Oregon's temperature and precipitation to the 2050s
2017 Forecasting Oregon's winter precipitation to 2069
2017 Localized SLR forecasts for the OR coast
2020 How quickly could we reach 3, 4, or 5oC?
2030 (2017) Climate change could raise extreme poverty significantly
2050 (2014) Planting zone changes over time
2050-2100 (2012) Projected return period for today’s 1 in 20 years annual maximum temperatures
2050-2100 (2015) Probability of a 50% increase in annual area cropland affected by drought
2100 (2008) Global changes in annual runoff
2100 (2012) Expected regional temperature change (degrees and SDs)
2100 (2014) Change in North American winter precipitation changes across multiple scenarios
2100 (2014) Change in per capita direct energy expenditure by state for RCP 8.5 scenario
2100 (2014) Changing heat and humid heat stroke index days by U.S. state
2100 (2014) Per capita state-level direct costs from increasing mortality under RCP 8.5 scenario
2100 (2014) Seasonal precipitation change under RCP 8.5
4oC - (and 7oC) Wet bulb temperatures (35 degrees is a key threshold)
Air quality risks
Alabama climate risk
Annual change in mean runoff to 2100
Anticipated damage from hurricane intensification.
Arkansas climate risk
As can be seen in forecasting likely African crop failures
But with inefficiency and discounting, a very different number - 3.8 degrees.
Change in stream temperature to 2050 RCP8.5
Change in streamflow to 2050 based on RCP8.5
Change in yields by county
Chicago climate risk
Cincinnati, Columbus, and Dayton climate risk
Cleveland and Toledo climate risk
Climate change health impacts in 2030, 750 ppm
Climate change impacts on African cereal yields 2050
Climate change vs. maximum speed species can travel
Coming up with a baseline for extreme event damages, now and 2100
Comparing the summer precipitation changes for different scenarios to 2100
Coral reefs have largely dissolved by 560 ppm CO2
Des Moines climate risk
Detroit climate risk
Different model ensembles of global precipitation to 2100
Distribution of ecological biomes, and change in expected temperature by SD in 2070
E - Worst Case Climate Change
Extreme Drought in the U.S. and Mexico
Fewer Freezing Nights by 2100
Figure SPM.6b
Figure SPM.7.
Florida climate risk
Forecasted climate trends for Central America
Forecasted precipitation changes to 2100 vary significantly geographically
Future precipitation changes will have large regional differences
Georgia climate risk
Graphic - How big a change are we talking about?
Humidity heat stroke index
Increase in global temperatures will show large regional differences
Increase in numbers of cooling degree days
Indianapolis climate risk
Insects and fire in Northwest Forests
It's possible to recalculate hurricane probabilities based on climate forecasts
Kansas City climate risk
Kentucky climate risk
Louisiana climate risk
Low river flows projected to decline significantly by 2080's
Low river flows will get a lot lower
Madison and Milwaukee climate risk
Map-based illustration of shifting in March freezing temperatures over time
Median summer temperature change
Minneapolis-St. Paul climate risk
Mississippi climate risk
NE Forests over time
New Orleans could be an island by 2100
Newer simulations for projected precipitation change
North Carolina climate risk
Number of people affected by flooding each year
Precipitation changes are long-term, and dramatic
Probability of drought during this century under BAU emissions
Probable Futures Dynamic Warming Maps
Projected change in heavy precipitation events
Projected changes in precipitation intensity
Projected changes in season precipitation are regional
Projected changes in strong non tropical storms
Projected changes ozone related deaths, NY metro area
Projected global precipitation change
Projected increase in heat deaths
Projected increase in hurricane intensity
Projected indicators of climate change
Projecting net extreme event damages in 2100
Projections are for more fire events and more intense rainfall events
Proportion of cropland under drought over time
Regional precipitation forecast range
Regional temperature and precipitation probabilities based on RCP3 and RCP8.5
Resulting in reduced capacity of power plants by 2040's
Risk of a 50% increase in # of people flooded
River increases that will exceed temp. limits
River temperatures will increase significantly by 2080's
Satellite view
Scientists are projecting dramatic extinction rates
Sea ice change to 2100, including modeled vs. observation to date
South Carolina climate risk
St. Louis climate risk
Streamflows will shift
Tennessee climate risk
Texas climate risk
The impact implications of uncertainty around climate sensitivity
U.S. change in extrmely dry summers 2100 RCP8.5
U.S. climate variables in 2030 relative to 1990
U.S. likelihood of extreme low snow in March 2100 RCP8.5
U.S. likelihood of extremely hot summers 2050 RCP8.5
U.S. precipitation changes
Understanding our climate · Probable Futures
Virginia climate risk
Which will destabilize existing systems and agreements
Wildfire, mortality, and urban flooding risks in the U.S. now and to 2100
Winemaking regions at risk
Year of climate departure

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