Is There such a Thing as Super-Forecasting?

Yes, there is indeed such a thing as a "super-forecaster" as defined by Philip Tetlock[1]. The concept of superforecasters originated from research by Philip Tetlock and the Good Judgment Project (GJP), where it was discovered that certain individuals are exceptionally skilled at assigning realistic probabilities to potential outcomes, even in areas outside of their primary expertise[4]. This discovery indicates that superforecasters have a significantly higher level of skill in comparison to luck, similar to professional athletes, and their performance has been observed over four years of forecasting tournaments involving hundreds of questions[4].

Philip Tetlock's extensive research has demonstrated that the accuracy of experts' predictions is often no better than chance, but he also identified that a subset of these experts, the superforecasters, exhibited genuine foresight[5]. The critical attributes of a superforecaster include teamwork, probabilistic thinking, the ability to draw knowledge from a variety of sources, and the courage to admit and learn from their mistakes[5].

Furthermore, superforecasters have not only performed impressively within the experimental settings but have also outperformed highly trained intelligence analysts with access to classified information[5]. While Tetlock suggests that not everyone has the potential to be a superforecaster, there is an underlying belief that most people can improve their forecasting and judgment skills[5].

In further support of the existence and recognition of superforecasters, the highly praised book "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction" argues that most people make predictions that are only slightly better than chance, while superforecasters appear to have some actual foresight[3][7]. These individuals were discovered during a series of forecasting tournaments, where a select few outperformed their peers by making predictions that were significantly more accurate than what would be expected by random chance[2][6]. The book "Superforecasting" has been acknowledged as a pivotal work on decision making, drawing comparisons with Daniel Kahneman's influential book, "Thinking, Fast and Slow"[3].

To validate and harness these capabilities, the GJP research evolved into a public platform, Good Judgment Open, where individuals with potential are recruited and trained to hone their forecasting skills[5]. This evolution from research to a more practical application further attests to the reality of superforecasters as a distinct and verifiable group.

In conclusion, based on the research conducted by Philip Tetlock and the Good Judgment Project, superforecasters are indeed real and represent individuals with an extraordinary aptitude for prediction. The body of work by Tetlock and his collaborators provides ample documentation and support for the existence of superforecasters, their defining characteristics, and their advanced predictive abilities[1][2][4][5][6][7].

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References

[1] Philip E. Tetlock (@PTetlock) / X https://twitter.com/ptetlock?lang=en

[2] Superforecasting: How to Upgrade Your Company's Judgment https://hbr.org/2016/05/superforecasting-how-to-upgrade-your-companys-judgment

[3] Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting:_The_Art_and_Science_of_Prediction

[4] About Superforecasting | Unprecedented Accurate & Precise ... https://goodjudgment.com/about/

[5] Philip Tetlock - The Decision Lab https://thedecisionlab.com/thinkers/political-science/philip-tetlock?ref=josephnoelwalker.com

[6] Book review: Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner ... https://dynamicecology.wordpress.com/2017/08/16/book-review-superforecasting-by-philip-tetlock-and-dan-gardner/

[7] Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction: Tetlock, Philip ... https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/0804136718