The Climate Web
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The Climate Web 10/5/2026
Science TOC
S - Impact Attribution
2021 Koonin_Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters
2. Part 1 - The Science
4. Many Muddled Models
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2. Part 1 - The Science
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Anyone who says that climate models are “just physics” doesn’t understand them.
Forecasting climate change remains a hugely challenging proposition
Model results can vary wildly, so averaging model results suggests false certainty
Models are actually getting more uncertain over time - after 1960
Models have to account for feedbacks
Models have to be tuned
Models range widely in their assumed ECS Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity
Naturally occurring variability may explain a lot of observed change
The models generally fail to explain the temperature rise from 1910-1940
Tuning can significantly impact model results