S - Probabilistic Decision-Making

Parents

2 Degrees Target TOC
Chief Risk Officers - TOC
Physical Impacts and Risks TOC
Risks - Societal TOC
S - Climate Emergency Sources
S - Climate Uncertainties Unknowns
S - Decision-making Under Uncertainty
S - Extreme Event Impacts
S - Historically Low Probability Outcomes as Business Risk
S - Impacts Top Level
Worst Case Climate Change TOC

Children

1991 Iman_The repeatability of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for complex probabilistic risk assessments
1998 Gottschalk_Distribution of peak flow derived from a distribution of rainfall volume
2000 Changnon_Human factors explain the increased losses from weather and climate extremes
2000 Easterling_Observed Variability and Trends in Extreme Climate Events A Brief Review
2007 USAID_Adapting to climate variability and change
2008 Rusticucci_Observed changes in return values of annual temperature extremes over Argentina
2008 Wiley_Estimating the Impacts and Uncertainty of Climate Change on a Municipal Water Supply System $$
2009 Boslough_Global situational awareness and early warning of high-consequence climate change
2009 MacCracken_The Increasing Pace of Climate Change
2009 Portmann_Spatial and seasonal patterns in climate change temperatures and precipitation across the United States
2009 Reid_Confidence and Risk
2009 Seo_The Impact of Climate Change on Catastrophe Risk Model
2009 Wigley_ Effect of climate change on frequency of extreme events
2009 WMO_Guidelines on Analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation
2010 Backus_Assessing the Near-Term Risk of Climate Uncertainty: Interdependences among the U.S. States
2010 Backus_Climate Uncertainty and Implications for the US
2010 Bender_Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequence of intense hurricanes
2010 Philips_Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Climate Change Adaptation
2010 Repetto_Changing Climate, More Damaging Weather
2010 Repetto_Climate Change and Extreme Weather
2010 Sanderson_Changes in the frequency of extreme rainfall events for selected towns and cities
2011 Bouwer_Have Disaster Losses Increased Due to Anthropogenic Climate Change
2011 Calvin_The Great Climate Leap: A Climate Surprise Is Like a Heart Attack
2011 Franzke_Nonlinear Trends Long-Range Dependence and Climate Noise Properties of Surface Temperature
2011 Hansen_Climate Variability and Climate Change: The New Climate Dice
2011 Hertsgaard_Hot: Living Through the Next Fifty Years on Earth
2011 Rahmstorf_Increase of extreme events in warming world
2011 Ranger_How can decision makers in DCs incorporate uncertainty about future climate risk
2011 Steffen Anthropocene From global Change to Planetary Stewardship
2012 Appendix D5 Estimated Conditions for Flow-Dependent Ecological Systems
2012 Coumou A decade of weather extremes $$
2012 Ledbetter_A method for incorporating climate variability in climate change assessments Sensitivity of river flows
2012 Repetto_Economic and environmental impacts of climate change in Florida
2012 Repetto_New Mexico’s Rising Climate Risks
2012 Ruff_Long tails in regional surface temperature probability distributions with implications for extremes
2012 Steinschneider_Toward a statistical framework to quantify the uncertainties of hydrologic response under climate change
2012 Trenberth_Heat Waves and Climate Change
2012 Zhu_Climate change impacts on water availability and use in the Limpopo River Basin
2013 Aggarwal_The Extremes Become the Norm
2013 Alexander_Debate heating up over changes in climate variability
2013 Backus_The near-term risk of climate uncertainty among the U.S. states $$
2013 Jones_Valuing adaptation under rapid change
2013 Kunkel changes in extreme weather and climatic events
2014 AghaKouchak_Global warming and changes in risk of concurrent climate extremes
2014 Budescu_Aided and unaided decisions with imprecise probabilities
2014 Franzke_Nonlinear climate change $$
2014 Lamond_The robustness of flood insurance regimes given changing risk
2014 Mora_The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability
2014 Rosner_A risk based approach to flood management decisions in a nonstationary world
2014 Serinaldi_Dismissing return periods
2014 Thornton_Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review $$
2015 Christidis_Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave $$
2015 Cook_Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains
2015 Huntington_Irrigation Demand and Reservoir Evaporation Projections
2015 IPCC_Workshop on Regional Climate Projections and their Use in Impacts and Risk Analysis Studies
2015 Muis_Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data $$
2015 Reed_Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to NYC during the anthropogenic era
2015 Repetto_Analyzing Climate Uncertainty and Risk with an Integrated Assessment Model
2015 Xie_Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change
2016 Chavaillaz_Investigating the pace of temperature change and its implications over 21st century
2016 Friedrich_Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming
2016 King_Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences $$
2016 Lehner_Future risk of record-breaking summer temperatures and its mitigation
2016 Neelin_Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale
2016 Park_Probabilistic risk assessment of flood disaster in South Korea under the impact of climate change
2016 Prein_The future intensification of hourly precipitation extremes
2016 Razavi_Regional climate change trends and uncertainty analysis using extreme indices
2016 Veldkamp_Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework incorporation of probability distributions
2017 Bertrand_Severe Weather Threatens Businesses Its Time to MEasure and Disclose the Risks
2017 Buchanan_Amplification of flood frequenceis with local sea level rise and emerging flood regimes
2017 Desai_Relating Extreme Temperature and Precipitation to Improve IDF Curve Estimates for Ontario
2017 Forzieri_Increasing risk over time of weather related hazards to the European population $$
2017 Gilleland_Quantifying the risk of extreme events under climate change XL
2017 Henson_Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems
2017 Im_Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated regions of South Asia $$
2017 King_Australian climate extremes at 1.5C and 2C of global warming
2017 Kulp_Rapid escalation of coastal flood exposure in US municipalities from SLR
2017 Liuzzo_Uncertainty related to climate change in the assessment of the DDF curve parameters $$
2017 Mora_Global Risk of Deadly Heat $$
2017 Udall_The twenty-first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future
2018 ACI Fall 2018 Data Releaseed Using Improved Methodology
2018 Chiang_Amplified warming of droughts in southern U.S. in observations and model simulations
2018 Christidis_The extremely wet March 2017 in Peru
2018 Cohen_Warm Arctic episodes linked with increased frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States
2018 De Abreu_Contribution of anthropogenic climate change to April-May 2017 heavy precipitation over Uruguay River basin
2018 Depietri_Changing urban risk- 140 years of climatic hazards in New York City
2018 Forzieri_Escalating impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures of Europe $$
2018 Funk_Examining potential contributions of extreme western V sea surface temperatures
2018 Hanberry_Is increased precipitation during the 20th century statistically or ecologically significant in the eastern US $$
2018 Hoell_Anthropogenic contributions to the intensity of 2017 US Northern Great Plains drought
2018 Kew_The exceptional summer heat wave in Europe 2017
2018 Min_Anthropogenic contribution to the 2017 earliest summer onset in South Korea
2018 Rimi_Risks of pre-monsoon extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh
2018 Sevellec_A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018-2022 reinforcing the
2018 Takahashi_The effects of natural variability and climate change on the record low sunshine over Japan in August 2017
2018 Wang_Attribution of the 2017 Northern High Plains drought
2019 Backus_Country-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments Volume 1
2019 Dixon_Unintended Effects of Emphasizing the Role of Climate Change in Recent Natural Disasters $$
2020 Lowry_Using Climate Uncertainty for Functional Resilience
2020 Philip_A Protocol for Probabilistic Extreme Event Attribution Analyses
2021 Katzav_On the appropriate and inappropriate uses of probability distributions in climate projections and some alternatives
2022 Martin_Optimal probabilistic forecasts: when do they work
2023 Emanuel_Physically Based Weather Hazard Modelling: Accounting for Climate Change
2024 Diffenbaugh_Data‐Driven Predictions of Peak Warming Under Rapid Decarbonization
S - Climate Change Fingerprint to Date

Jumps

I - ChangingProbabilityDistributions

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