Offsets as Hypothesis Testing

Parents

Offsets Master Class

Children

Additionality Proxies
Any offset protocol is (very) likely to include at least some false positives
Carbon offsets are gauranteed?
Einstein quote
False positives vs. false negatives
Getting at the Real Problem
How Good is Good Enough
Hypothesis testing can never be perfect, and it’s not for carbon offsets
It is not easy to assess the additionality of an offset pool
No, we Can’t Test for Additionality
Someone has to decide the acceptable balance of false positives and false negatives
Testing for Additionality?
The challenge of additionality testing
The question of “how many false positives is too many” is not a technical question
There is no way to minimize for false positives and false negatives simultaneously
Type 1 and Type 2 Error - Juries
Type 1 and Type 2 Error - Offsets
We all understand that some guilty individuals will be found innocent in a courtroom
We all understand that some innocent people will be found guilty in a courtroom
We inuitively understand that fewer falsely guilty outcomes is more important than more falsely innocent outcomes
We should all recognize that some “false positive” tons will make it into a carbon offset pool
We should all understand that some “true positive” tons will be excluded from offset pools
We should all understand that we’re trading off false positive and false negative tons
We should take advantage of the best possible information when it comes to additionality screening
What can we really say about additionality screening?
What perfect additionality screening would look like
What potentially overly strict additionality screening looks like
What reasonable additionality screening might look like
What weak additionality screening looks like
Why market size matters to additionality screening
Without adequate additionality screening, offsets can’t maintain environmental integrity

Made with TheBrain